Gear Changes: Dibayani – Blindfold First Time & Stallion Chain First Time & Ear Muffs Again & Noseroll Off, Big Memory – Lugging Bit Off & Tongue Tie Off & Tongue Control Bit First Time.
1. Foreteller: Been a while between wins for this consistent type. Never won at MV previously and better over further but he should run well. Barrier means he will be far back.
2. Ethiopia: needs further.
3. Mourinho: He loves the pace on and The Cleaner will set it up today. Extra 200m today and the pace will be a harder tempo, he needs to produce his best to feature here. Drawn a gem of a barrier to get the right run.
4. Contributer: WFA-G1 winner x2 last prep and WFA-G2 winner over 1400m first up. It’s very hard to be ‘against’ the horse today from barrier 2, he maps just off the pace in say 6th or 7th and will have every chance to win, but will he be rock hard fit first up considering how far off the Cox Plate still is? I have massive questions over it and think that he could get exposed by the tempo expected.
5. The Cleaner: Very strong run first up. Loves this track and loves the 1600m. If the rail is playing well enough then you have to consider him a chance, but i have my query on this rail today and i just can’t back him to get all the favours required.
6. Banca Mo: Have to admit old mate loves the 1600m distance but his best last prep was over further. Can run a cheeky race.
7. Dibayani: I was very impressed with his first up run in Australia over the unsuitable 1400m. Up to 1600m looks very well suited and stable seem to be confident he can go close. Will love a hot speed on.
8. Bagman: Two wins in a row but back to 1600m and harder company… just couldn’t back him here today even if he is going great guns!
9. Big Memory: I hear people are backing him in again.. hasn’t won in close to a year for a reason… he is hard to catch and i’ll take him on in this grade.
10. Gallante: Williams runner who on paper has some very nice form lines, but that doesn’t include 1600m… needs 2000m+ to find best and best runs on soft ground.
11. Kenjorwood: I really liked his last start run when did alot wrong and was poorly ridden. New jockey and perfect barrier today to have every chance. Certainly a step up in class but i think he is capable of causing a massive upset today loving a fast tempo. Will be there late!
12. No Tricks: Not the worst run last start behind most in this field. Others preferred though.
Comments: I’m not going to talk anyone out of backing Contributer today. He is clearly the best horse in this race, but i don’t see any value at all in the price. The $3 promo price that was bet by Crownbet was certainly a good price, but i’d really need $2.50+ to be betting him today. The main reason for this is the fact The Cleaner will be setting a blistering tempo in the race and you are expecting Contributer first up on a long campaign towards a Cox Plate to run what would need to be a 95% fit run to match up… also the barrier does rail some queries if stuck on the rail. So who do i want to be on here? It’s not The Cleaner. I think the rail won’t give him enough advantage even though i really liked his last start run. I’m also going to take on Mourinho even though he is so consistent. The two that i want to follow forward at Dibayani and Kenjorwood. The Kenjorwood one is simple, you know that i know this horse, it is best suited to a strong tempo and will sit just off The Cleaner, it will have every chance if good enough from that barrier and i think it is good enough. Dibayani has untapped potential and proved it measuring up to the highest levels overseas… first up was more than enough for me to believe he can win this.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Two: 4, 5, 7, 11
Strategy: Dibayani to win. Smaller bet Kenjorwood.
