1. Buffering: Sensational win first up on the firm surface at Moonee Valley holding out Ball of Muscle. A bit of a query with Ball of Muscle failing since at Caulfield next start though. Buffering loves this track and loves this distance also and from the barrier you just know he jump, run and be on speed and hard to get past!
2. Chautauqua: The best sprinter in Australia. Super win first up at course over 1000m in WFA-G2 and then last start down the Flemington straight when they tried to box him in. Barrier two today, you get the feeling he will be out the back with 400m to go and will have to go around a wall of horses. Good enough to do it.
3. Terravista: Had to take a gap through runners last start at Randwick and got the win. I wouldn’t say it was anywhere near his most impressive run, but 20 days between runs you can expect he will have trained on and be running well. Barrier only issue. Could get stuck with no where to go at critical stages.
4. Rebel Dane: Good win first up in Group 2 company then just missed last start behind Terravista and was probably the better run on the day. Will grind home again today but has to improve. Barrier helps.
5. Tiger Tees: On speed last start and well beaten in the end. Has to improve on that first up run but it was certainly a nice run compared with the two runs last prep.
6. Fast ‘N’ Rocking: Won well last start at Caulfield by over 2 lengths in Listed company. Obviously in career best form on that last start run with the times run, but at equal weights he does look to need to improve again to beat all these.
7. Rich Enuff: Not a lot you can say about him. Horrible run last start over 1400m in Group 1 company. Good barrier helps today but it’s a struggle to suggest he will run well in this grade off last few runs.
8. Srikandi: Sensational runs last prep, her best was seen over 1350-1400m and at handicap weights. Tough barrier against the top grade.
9. Griante: The clear value in the race. From barrier 5 and up to 1200, expect them to sit her much closer to the speed today than last start. Absolutely flew home from out the back last start… maps for the gun run.
10. Alpha Miss: Shocked by the price for her today. What did she beat last start? Take her on.
Comments: Buffering, Chautauqua and Griante are the only three horses I could back in this race today. I think Chautauqua is the best horse in the race, but from that barrier the horse will be out the back and have to produce a very good run to run over the top of these. Buffering is a massive price again today and is hard to look past while Griante is the value of the race with the most distance between rated price and actual price.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 8, 9
Strategy: Buffering on the Each-Way is the clear play. I’ll also be having something on Griante at the price.
