Gear Changes: Angelic Light – Bandages First Time.
1. Buffering: Old mate buffering is back for another prep. Won this race last year, but it was over the 1200m not 1000m. Hasn’t seen this distance for a long time and safe to say his best runs in the past few years have been 1200m. Won’t be getting an easy lead like last prep also and we have a full field instead of just the five runners last year. Need to be at his best.
2. Sterling City: Top weight in the Bobbie Lewis but didn’t show much at all. Showed about as much as we saw last prep over at Sha Tin.
3. Rain Affair: New stable. Didn’t place last prep because he simply isn’t his old self. Will be on speed pushing forward from barrier 11… expect tempo to be strong but he isn’t the same horse.
4. Flamberge: Great run 2nd to Chautauqa last start at course and distance on equal weights. Simply beaten by the best sprinter in AUS that day.. don’t discount at all. Group 1 winner. Barrier only issue.
5. Le Bonsir: Decent horse and good win last start at course and distance, but this is MUCH harder. Can’t consider.
6. Ball of Muscle: Ran very well last start at Randwick improving on the first up run that was fairly average. Has to improve onwards again to measure up here and tempo out front will be fierce.. even from barrier 1 could be crossed if not careful.
7. Angelic Light: Where does she sit? 1000m is perfect for her as proven by last prep win first up in the McEwen over Lankan Rupee. Ran an unlucky 4th in this race last prep as well and then a nose 2nd to Lankan Rupee in the Manikato. Trial was very good behind Lankan Rupee and infront of Srikandi and word around the traps is she is flying. Barrier an issue and they probably have to push back and ride for luck here.
8. Griante: First try at this distance and on past experience would think up in distance not down would be the more suitable option. Running well enough this prep but not well enough to win in this grade.
9. Miss Promiscuity: Good win in the Monash and then freshened and failed to impress that day. Good track should be more suitable for the horse I believe… will be ridden just off the pace from the barrier with a sit… produced a good enough run two back to suggest she could be in the finish. Win wouldn’t shock on her ability and trainer agrees.
10. Brook Road: Stable has a big opinion of her. I’m not as convinced but the proof will be in the pudding. Big jump in class here today.
11. Headwater: Old mate looks cooked after his two impressive wins in first prep. Couldn’t touch him.
12. Fontiton: First run after issues in the Blue Diamond when still stuck on for 5th. Looked a very very good horse in the preludes with devastating turn of foot. Awkward barrier but 51kg means you have to respect. Won at course and distance as a 2YO by 6 lengths in a 250k race… but did lead that day.
13. Petitis Filous: All you can do is beat what is put infront of you and she did that all four runs this prep on any surface. 51kg and will be pushing forward to sit just off the speed I’d imagine. Only real concern you would have is this type of profile and that last start run screams ‘flat run due’. Also not sure Glen Boss is the ideal rider for this type of run today with Oliver suspended.
Comments: I can understand why people are taking the $2.40 for the 51kg 3YO Petits Filous, but i can’t see it being a profitable strategy in the long term at the price. I think Miss Promiscuity is the value in the race at $40+ and may be worth a little bet from the gun barrier. Angelic Light would be a bet if they had drawn a better barrier, but i just can’t do it from that tricky spot. I’m in the same position with Flamberge. I think Flamberge should be clear 2nd favourite here but the barrier means you just can’t bet the horse. Ball of Muscle is a take on for mine, got the pace it wanted last start to get the win, it ain’t happening today. The only way i could approach this race at the prices is Buffering on the Each-Way. He is consistent as the day is long and you know he will handle the tempo and enjoy it, sticking on no matter what.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 4, 6, 9, 12, 13
Strategy: Miss Promiscuity Each-Way.
