1. Precedence: Old mate hasn’t placed in three preps, but he has been running in harder races than this. Didn’t exactly go very well last start at Flemington an issue… 5 wins at track but no places outside of that in the 11 runs.
2. Big Memory: They have backed this horse about it’s last 10 runs and it hasn’t won. Runs at this distance in the past have always been solid. Cranbourne run last start was fairly average.
3. Prince of Penzance: He was well beaten last start over this distance at Caulfield last start which is concerning and had every chance on firm ground two back at course over 2040m. Likes this track and distance but certainly has to improve.
4. Escado: Old mate always runs well. Not in this class.
5. Taiyoo: Put in an improved run last start at Cranbourne when 5th to Digitalism. Up to 2500m obviously will suit this bloke and this is about how long it took last prep to hit form. Watch for money coming for the horse. Unbeaten at around this distance from 4 runs!
6. Like A Carousel: There runs this prep and all trash. Hard to have on current form. Sandown cup?
7. The United States: We just have to forgive him once again last start – running out of opportunities though. No excuses today over further with the speed on!
8. Bold Sniper: Queenies horse! Nice run two back but last start when drifted back in the running was just simply poor. Better than that run.
10. Bondeiger: Going along nicely enough and ran home well last start at Caulfield. Ran Preferment to 0.2L over this distance last prep as a 3YO. 53kg the key.
11. Bohemian Lily: She stuck on solid enough last start when 3rd to Amralah but she was well beaten off. Needs to improve to beat all of these today for mine.
Comments
rince of Penzance, Taiyoo, The United States, Bold Sniper and Bondeiger are the five main chances here. Bold Sniper is going the right direction but needs one more run to be backed for mine. I’m honestly shocked by the price being bet on Prince of Penzance after the last two runs. Way unders. Taiyoo is going the right way and looks a bit of value in the race. Last win was over 2600m in Group 3 class. This is a race of two for mine in the end and while I’ve made so many excuses for The United States, he isn’t my top pick today! Bondeiger is going in the right direction and down 3kg today after that huge run behind Amralah, he is actually 3kg better off against Bohemian Lily, suggesting how well weighted he is.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Bondeiger on the Each-Way.
