Gear Changes: Genuine Lad – Tongue Tie First Time
1. Prince of Penzance: Very disappointing run from the back with top weight at Ballarat last start considering the first up run at Caulfield. Up to 2040m today and last start may simply have been to get him fit for this. Top weight today. Loves this track with 2 from 2. Loves this distance. Will be out the back/worse than midfield you would think.
3. Magnapal: Three starts this prep for three wins beating some fairly good horses along the way. Been given the weight having to carry 1.5kg extra than The United States today… has drawn perfectly again in barrier 6. Maps perfectly again and tempo will be on to suit, again. Hard not to consider BUT is 3 runs for 0 placings at track.
4. Escado: Doesn’t win out of turn and better later into preps. First two runs too poor to consider.
5. The United States: This is his race to win today. Will sit midfield instead of out the back today I’d expect with a lack of tempo. He has to win in the lead up to the Caulfield Cup to get a run for mine and drew the ideal barrier. Only bad luck stops him fighting this to the line.
6. Desert Jeuney: Continues to run fairly but not be in the finish. Up to 2000m should suit but last fur runs don’t suggest it to be.
7. Genuine Lad: Led and looked the winner at stages throughout the race but couldn’t hold on. Weighted 2kg better off today than Magnapal but won’t get the lead with a speed horse in the race. Consistent type missing a place 13 of the last 14 starts.
8. Digitalism: Got in last start with bottom weight and stole the win off Lord Durante late. Consistent type and enjoys any pace on in a race. Barrier 2 should see him midfield at worse… have to consider.
9. Diametric: Just not going well enough on last two runs to consider him here… short backup… poor barrier.
10. Awesome Rock: His going well right now… step up to this distance a big unknown for mine. His run behind Charmed Harmony two back was good and was just 3L off Fawkner in WFA-G1 over 1600m last start doing alot wrong. Gets a good spot from barrier you would imagine.
11. Mujadale: You have to whip the hell out of this horse for it to win and it won’t be allowed to occur today. Forrester off the horse for that reason. Will set a very strong tempo on speed today..
12. Velox: Very strong win first up over 1600m this import who is 3rd up today. Barrier doesn’t suit the horse an issue and not sure he is very well weighted.
Comments: A simple betting race for mine today. You bet The United States and you also bet Digitalism at the massive odds. Too many unknowns with Awesome Rock today to take the price with the pace expected to be on out the front. Velox has a horror barrier for a back marker and is unders in the race. Genuine Lad should be claimed by the good ones today and Magnapal gets the weight to lose to The United States today. Everything is in The United States corner.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 5, 7, 8, 10
Strategy: The United States to win. Smaller Bet Digitalism.
