Gear Changes: Odyssey Moon – Winkers Off First Time – Blinkers Again, Well Sprung – Winkers First Time, Boston Light – Lugging Bit First Time – Racing Plates First Time.
1. Odyssey Moon: Progressed well through his runs last prep but only the one win on record over the 1000m. Clearly comes into this race rated well.. but has a tricky barrier to contend with.
2. Gold Busker: Showed promise last prep with a good 2YO-LR win in Tassy then just missed in Adelaide in a 2YO-SW. Will be on speed and be hard to get past.
3. Manhattan Blues: Nice enough first prep on record with a good 2nd to Stoker and 4th in the Blue Diamond. Will be a long way back from barrier.
4. El Greco: Broken our heart the last two runs missing the win by 0.1L and 0.1L. 1600m back down to 1200m a concer i’d suggest and will be midfield at best today. Obviously has the ability but is this the right distance?
5. Danuki: Will be pushing forward from wider barrier today and won’t have an easy time with it. Maiden only winner last prep but went well at Caulfield for a 2nd in 2Y-SCN class. Have to improve ratings to win this.
6. Destiny’s Reward: Well beaten first up in easier grade. Showed some promise last prep.
7. Bon Aurum: Got maiden win two back and then no disgrace last start out the front at Flemington. Wide barrier makes that task hard today.
9. Vicious: Two solid runs in 2YO class and couldn’t even get the easy kill last start. Much harder this and i’m happy to take him on, he is unders.
10. Trench Fighter: Two runs and failed in both even though backed. Had alot of issues. Take on.
11. Well Sprung: Couldn’t win a maiden last start on Heavy. Hard to match up here.
12. Boston Light: Market only guide. Opened near double current price but has slightly drifted since being backed.
Comments: We have been on El Greco the last two starts and i couldn’t be on today. Yes the horse is consistent and will run well, but at this distance with this mapping in this class i’ll take on at this price. The top two in the market are the two i want to be betting in and around. Gold Busker will be on the speed and that’s where i want to be today, the price looks great and the horse rates well if improved during his break. Odyssey Moon is also a very backable price. The mapping is tricky, but Oli should find a way.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4, 12
Strategy: Odyssey Moon to win. Smaller bet Gold Busker.
