1. Gredington: Will be out the back today from the barrier in this race. 2YO winner on wetter tracks, hasn’t run within 2L of a win in this grade of race in 5 runs and last start was very poor at Flemington. I have to take him on.
2. Patch Adams: Top weight last start at Pakenham wasn’t exactly ‘suited’ but ground away to the line. His run two back at Flemington was very good and previous two runs to that were solid also. May just not handle weight? Was certainly a flat run last start.. could have been surface also. Shown the ratings to win this in last four runs.
3. He’s Our Rokkii: New Zealand import, has a 2nd to his name in 2YO-G3 and ran 4th in a 2Y-GP1 from the back, blocked for runs. Won his maiden first up very easy. Hayes really didn’t give you confidence in his thoughts about the horse, clearly will be ridden cold out the back.
5. Get The Picture: Maiden winner.. took three runs to get it under the belt but was over this distance. Obviously has to improve to measure up to these.
6. Ragnaar: Measured up in 2YO-LR grade over in New Zealand. First up got the win in maiden class at Bendigo. Obviously has ability on what we know too date but has to improve on that first run again.
7. Sovereign Nation: If you wanted to follow the horse Hayes was keen to talk about in this race, then it’s Sovereign Nation. Ran home nicely from out the back last start at Flemington in this grade. Barrier 3 today, expect to sit closer to the speed than expected, could be midfield. Big ability.
8. Admirabeel: Cranbourne maiden winner in fairly average time over the 1400m. Didn’t have to beat much that day either.
9. Loyalty Man: Couldn’t win a maiden coming into this. Hard to have.
10. Nurburgring: Not the worst run last start at Morphetville but couldn’t win maiden first up (a lot done wrong and blocked for run)… needs to improve on that Morphetville run.
11. Collaborate: Maiden winner over in NZ… first up today in Aus.. take on.
Comments: Probably the worst $200,000 race you will see this month. There is no speed runner in the race so i don’t know how the best horses mapped out the back are going to get the speed needed to win. Patch Adams should sit close enough to the speed to have every chance.
Confidence 50%
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11
Strategy: Patch Adams to win.
