Gear Changes: Living on a Prayer – Tounge Tie First Time, Sardaaj – Lugging Bit First Time.
1. Mighty Like: Eye-catching run last start when kept on with it and beat Tawteen home. Goes very well 2nd up and looks very well suited in the race without Tawteen today. Barrier 11 a massive issue though.
2. Solsay: Two runs to date this prep in harder company and both were fairly disappointing so to speak. I can forgive first up due to the slow tempo which didn’t suit but last start he was very poor down the straight (think we have to forgive that also if going on form today also). So you have a horse with two forgive runs in the end, back to a track where he has run 10 times and only missed the place once… back to a class he hasn’t seen in more than 10 runs from a very positive barrier 4. Only issue for mine is Beriman not riding.
3. About Square: Last win was in this class at this distance first up last prep. Three runs to date this prep in harder company and hasn’t measured up. Needs to find alot more today to win this from poor barrier.
4. Living On a Prayer: Promised alot but shown very little down here in Victoria. Back to a firmer track will obviously help but i’d struggle to suggest here today.
5. Tankster: I like this horse. Won two in a row going through the grades then failed last start as short priced favourite in Adelaide on the heavy. Can return to form today but best recent runs have been on wetter tracks.
6. Churchill Dancer: Stable were keen last start and he just missed for us as a good E/W bet down the Flemington Straight. 3 runs for just 1 place at course previously but this looks a very winnable grade today. Tricky mapping.
7. Valiant Warrior: Took a sit last start with a very good ride and that was the difference with a very good win. Step up in class this race again today but weighted nicely and can repeat that effort here.
8. King Buddy: Found very little first up over the 1000m. Much better suited up to 1200m and back to Moonee Valley.. and goes much better 2nd up.
9. Red Corner: Had his chances last start and was well beaten. Back to dryer track should help chances if can run up to three back run, but can’t see that repeat here.
10. Sardaaj: NZ import for the Hawkes stable. 3F-GP2 and 3F-GP1 2nds over 1600m.. won a maiden beating Admiral by 2.5L and 3L win in BM-65 after that. Looks the real deal but definetly better over further?
11. Stingray: Did alot wrong and never a chance last start at Caulfield. Can obviously bounce back and run better today but this looks beyond him.
12. Just for Starters: Good win two back at Caulfield but didn’t beat much. Found out last start and this looks as hard today.
13. Jersey Whisler: Hard to see him measuring up to these.
Comments: I have a rule with NZ runners, if they come here running first up, they always lose and i’m willing to take that risk on Sardaaj here today. The horses best runs were over 400m further, yes the horse looks good and the form is hard to argue with from a positive barrier, but this is a step up. We have been given a very competitive market with the favourite in at $3s. Stingray looks well short in the markets, i have the horse double the price. Valiant Warrior is a slight bit of value on the last start run while Churchill Dancer is about where i have it also in the ratings. Solsay is the massive overs of the race with the claim from Bayliss getting the run of the race.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Valiant Warrior to win. Smaller bet Solsay.
