Gear Changes: Haybah – Lugging Bit Off & Standard Bit On & Tongue Tie On, Sweet Redemption – Blinkers First Time, Young Amazon – Tongue Tie Off & Tongue Control Bit On.
1. Pasadena Girl: Very talented 2Y-Gp1 winner last prep (didn’t beat the world that day though) and ran a very respectable 4th the run before to Pride of Dubai. Poor barrier a big issue and back to Good track is NOT an issue considering the strong 0.2L win at Flemington in 2F-GP3 company. Will be a long way back and need the rail to be not working out to be winning this.
2. Jameka: Proved to be a very nice type last prep when winning a 2YO-G2. Ran 4th to Pasadena Girl the previous race when favourite. Will be pushing forward and stable is flying.
3. Sagaronne: 0.8L 2nd to Press Statement in 2Y-GP1 to finish last prep after two previous wins to that. Lost a plate in that run also and was vetted at barriers. Runs a very strong tempo which is good. Best obviously over the 1600m on that last run… williams first time onboard today going back from barrier 1.
4. Haybah: Very disappointing run first up on soft ground. May have simply needed the run… betting did tell the story. Doesn’t win out of turn and will be setting a strong tempo… stable keen on their other runner.
5. Grisbi’s Run: Took out a 2YO race early this prep but since has not been within 2.8L of a win on three occasions in harder company. Happy to take her on today.
6. Stay With Me: Very strong maiden win first up this prep and ran 1L 2nd to Pasadena Girl first up and then 2.3L 5th to English after that. Looks a very good type and the yard would have declared her a special if she drew a barrier. Expect to be ridden for midfield to slightly further back spot. Heading towards the Guineas.
7. Lazumba: Two runs for two seconds. Finished off last prep with the 2nd to Jameka in 2YO-G2 company at Flemington which has to be respected. Good barrier today… best shown over further an issue though and yet to win.
8. Don’t Doubt Marley: Very strong run 4th last start behind Petitis Filous getting within 2L from last in the run. Will be getting back from the barrier again but looks a good place chance.
9. Don’t Doubt Mamma: 2YO winner in Adelaide.. horrible barrier all but ruins chance for a horse that looks to need everything to go right to go well.
10. Sweet Redemption: Waterhouse record over here is fairly average right now and her horses are running poorly first up.. so i have little trust in this runner today. Looks a second striger as well…
11. Our Vidia: Very disappointing run first up. Has ability on that really good win at course over 1000m first up last prep.
12. Just One Moment: Hard to ignore all her quality runs. Best clearly seen on Good track when winning her maiden and was still a valid 2nd last start at MV. Maps nicely.
13. Badawiya: 7 length maiden win well back in class in open class as well. Has ability but not sure i can back just off that maiden win.
14. Hela Flyer: Good enough maiden win but certainly didn’t have to beat the best of them. Barrier is poor.
15. Inner City Girl: Looked a nice win in a top price maiden. Distance increase will suit and barrier 4… have to respect.
16. Young Amazon: Will be on speed. Never placed so hard to suggest.
Comments: The best way you can make money out of a race like this is to generally sit back and take note of the big runs and instantly back that runner in the Guineas markets. More often than not these races will put up a very good run, and that run for mine will be Stay With Me today… will be out the back and hitting the line hard. Just One Moment looks the value runner in the race on the E/W from the barrier, expect to get a charmed run and can go well here. Certainly not the best horse in the race, but should get lengths on those i consider the best coming to the turn.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Just One Moment E/W
