1. Serene Majesty: Looked a VERY good type winning first up this prep but failed heavily at Randwick behind Speak Fondly. We saw the real Serene Majesty last start sitting wide and still smashing that field. Clearly hard to ignore on last start run.
3. Haybah: Easy enough win with no tempo in the race last start at Caulfield in much easier than this. Step up again and won’t get an easy time. Looks unders!
4. Harlem River: Well beaten last start by Serene Majesty at Caulfield. Nice jockey onboard in Moore today but I can’t see the turn around in results even 2kg better off.
5. Lake Geneva: Won a maiden first up and failed to get within 4 lengths since. Hard to have on current form but do think she will be better suited today back to a firmer track. Probably value.
6. Miss Gidget: Maiden winner first up. Last prep ran 2nd to Fontition but after that failed to get close since. Has ability but tough barrier today and will have to improve significantly again.
7. Tiz My View: Didn’t measure up as a top class horse last prep when asked to. First up run was fine, but no surprise. Big step up.
8. Northern Model: Maiden winner two back no surprise then well beaten last start. Hard to have at prices.
9. Positive Charge: 2YO winner by nearly 4 lengths last prep over 1100m at the Gold Coast, but that was on a soft track and it wasn’t as strong a race as ‘2YO’ suggests. Every chance first up has to improve.
10. Valley Sweetheart: Maiden winner, big throw at the stumps from a stable that generally knows when they have a good one.
12. Gatto’s Girl: Trialled okay but can’t exactly have here first up against these.
Comments: Serene Majesty picks herself. I think Lake Geneva is the only horse that can beat her today if produces a top rating run and we are getting high enough prices to back both. Very keen we get a result here.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Back Serene Majestry for 5 units. Back Lake Geneva for 1.25 units.
