Hula Lua: I think shes a very good type over distances and this has been proven in the past even though she is lightly raced for a 7YO! First up she ran very well when having no luck and then last start had breathing issues. Has won twice in the past at this grade and won 2 from 3 attempts at this track. Will get back in the run but from barrier 5 shouldn’t be right out the back and should have her chances if the tempo is run as expected.
Spirit of Heaven: Thought she ran very well at Flemington last start when no chance from the positionin in running dead last. Finished within 2 lengths of the win and steps well back in class here up to the 1600m which is where she won her last race by a long distance. Wide barrier means you can expect to see her out the back again unless if they decide to be more handy which hasn’t been advised.
To Be Honest: Very disappointing run last start and absolutely no excuse for it off two decent runs apart from the fact she may have just had enough after two solid runs. This is a step up in class again today make no mistake… barrier 3 sees her map very well but last start is certainly concerning coming into this.
Dig A Pony: Sat out the back with Spirit of Heaven last start at Flemington and hit the line well. Think she is getting back to the class we saw more than a year ago which saw her winning races… but my huge concern is her on this track. Best runs clearly been with a long wind up down the straight. Horses for courses.
Aliyana: Four runs this prep and failed to place in all 4 runs. Doesn’t look like the same horse we saw last prep… needs a few more runs to find form it appears?
First Bloom: No disgrace all runs this prep but did have every possible two back when missed behind Every Faith. Last start run also had every possible on a track that should have suited… back to dryer a concern on current form.
Shadow of the Mist: Looks the leader today. Going just okay if i’m honest and even though she ran well here out the front last start, this race on paper looks significantly harder.
Savannah Moon: Went around big odds last start at Bendigo and won very well in an average form race. The writing was on the wall from the three back run at Flemington. This looks much harder though and will need to take the next step up.
Domino Vitale: Very interesting runner today. Took a long time to find that maiden win but once she found it she has gone through the grades well this prep including a nice 3rd in 3YOF class last start behind Herstory. Looked to be wanting extra distance when hitting the line last start and should be suited to a wider barrier today I feel getting every chance off the rail.
Takeover: Looks outclassed today at the weights on current form. Can place but can’t see a win in her in this grade.
Comments: Very tough race on paper. Hula Lua, Spirit of Heaven, To Be Honest, Dig a Pony, First Bloom, Domino Vitale and even Shadow of the Mist to an extent rate as winning chances… very few that can’t win in this one and that doesn’t figure out as a profitable betting race on my books.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Two horse play. Hula Lua & Domino Vitale equal stakes to win.
