Gear Changes: Prince Cheri – Tongue Tie Off, Chance to Dance – Cross Over Noseband First Time & Tongue Tie First Time, Garud – Cheekers Off, Pacific Heights – Blinkers First Time.
1. Prince Cheri: Looked to be a very progressive type with Group 1 potential but never got to that level after a Group 3 win over 2000m, hasn’t won since or even placed. Obviously has talent but first up today has to find his very best. Maps on speed today which suits on a Good track.
2. Streets Away: Every chance to win all three runs this prep and hasn’t provided a run close enough to win. Fair time between runs but been a long time between drinks and not sure he has it in him today either.
3. Chance to Dance: Failed to finish off on the heavy track first up at Flemington which wasn’t expected considering his form on wet overseas. 8 runs on good surfaces in Ireland for 4 wins and 4 places is hard to ignore. Should be ready to fire today heading into a big spring campaign for the stable.
4. The United States: The favoured of the two Williams horses, The United States was well backed last start at course and similar distance when just stealing the win over Abbasso by 0.1L. Was a very good win and we know he has talent based on WFA-G3 win over in Ireland. 56kg looks kind.
5. Onpicalo: Has been backed to win today back on a firmer surface and back to 1600m, but will the rail be so good that he will have every chance? Barrier means he will have to do alot of work early to cross but is the clear leader in the race.
6. Mujadale: Needs further. Never won first up or at track.
7. Lord of Brazil: Old mate just not going well enough to even consider for a place.
8. Garud: Got a win over Magnapal last prep over 1700m at the bool. Has ability but finds it very hard to get a win. One win first up on record and that was a long time ago that first up win. Never missed a place at these distances interestingly… should run well but hard to see the win first up.
9. Electric Fusion: Two runs to date and never close. Could try and be ridden closer to speed up in distance from a positive barrier but even that may not be enough to get a place in this competitive race.
10. Abbasso: Unlucky 2nd last start when given a very good ride. 2.5kg better off today against The United States and will get a charmed run with the pace on.
11. Pacific Heights: Stable believes he is going very well right now. Back down in weights and has to be considered a minor chance.
12. Initiator: Shown nothing two runs to date. Hard to see the form turn around for another few runs and needs further.
13. Baron Archer: Every chance last start and found nothing even with a strong tempo. Do have to forgive that run i feel. First time at MV a massive negative.
Comments: Certainly an exciting race on paper with a few key chances and a few roughies you have to consider. Straight off the bat, i can’t understand the price being bet for The United States when you consider Abbasso is 2.5kg better off from a positive barrier compared to The United States barrier, yet they are giving double the odds for Abbasso. Prince Cheri has the ratings to win today but is certainly hard to trust here first up on previous two preps. The same can be said for Baron Archer after last starts fail. Chance to Dance looks big odds from a nice barrier and has to be considered also. I think the market has Onpicalo and Pacific Heights below the odds they really should be, yet both do have a chance in the race. When all is said and done, i’m super keen to be taking the price on Abbasso while having a small bet also on Chance to Dance.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Abbasso E/W. Smaller bet Chance to Dance to win.
