Gear Changes: Precious Gem – Winkers Off First Time – Blinkers On First Time.
1. Precious Gem: Horrible barrier today. Never won first up and never won at distance. Does go well at track though and last prep measured up in mares GP3 grade in quite a few races. Not sure she will be suited by the track bias today either and surely goes all the way back from barrier.
2. Tawteen: Very nice run last start at Moonee Valley when did a lot of work first up to lead on a day when no leaders were finishing off the races. Will take improvement from that run and this race looks much easier to win today leaders should be suited. Looks the clear leader without having to work too hard for it either.
3. Snippetee Bee: Had every chance last start with a low weight but didn’t finish off quite well. Happy to take on her today.
4. Flash of Doubt: Ran home nicely enough last start from the back blocked for runs. Barrier 3 could see her closer to the pace and a chance hitting the line.
5. Forgeress: Won two in a row and back in class here up in weights. Barrier 5 looks ideal today and will be hitting the line hard. Weighted nicely.
6. Pilly’s Wish: Every chance last start at Caulfield and very disappointing to see how easily she was beaten off. Was a downward run and is better than that. Barrier 1 will see her get back on the rails. I’d be taking on today.
7. Catch That Cat: Meow. Two runs two wins last prep. Didn’t beat top class horses in either two runs and first up record 2/2… Very good track distance and class ratings so hard to say she can’t win, she can. Maps well.
8. Written: On speed runner but struggle to see her get the lead today. Ran well last start at Flemington and should run well again today, but i just can’t see her having the class to beat all of these.
9. Written Dash: 3F-GP3 winner last prep, ran horribly first up in much harder grade. Goes well at track and weighted okay in this.
10. Cobblestones: Back to form last start when ran nicely for 5th at Sandown. Needs to improve again though.
Comments: The market has this race right for mine. Tawteen is the top class horse and deserves to be favourite while Forgeress is the clear danger on the ratings. Flash of Doubt is the value runner in the race.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Tawteen to win. Saver bet Forgeress.
