1. Amanpour: First two runs this prep were pretty rubbish. Expect to be closer to the speed today up to the distance she is looking for, but i’d be looking for large improvement on those first two runs to be winning this.
2. May’s Dream: Consistently consistent as a race horse. Two very strong runs in this class first and second up and up to 1600m should have her winning if good enough. Could slot perfectly 1/1 today.
3. Scratchy Bottom: Ignore first run when blocked for runs from out the back. Harder class today but up in distance helps. Best over further.
4. Precious Gem: Finished alongside May’s Dream last start at Flemington nosing her out which is fairly important a factor. Should see her shuffled back again, like last start. Distance increase helps and last win was in Mares grade beating Amanpour which stacks up here obviously. Speed should be on.
5. Fenway: 3F-GP1 first and second last prep beating First Seal and running 2nd to Delicacy. Barrier 2 should see her just off the pace and Shinn back onboard.
6. Ungrateful Ellen: Well beaten first up but was blocked for runs so have to forgive the run. Obviously has ability measuring up in 3F-GP1 class last prep but couldn’t get close to Winx (no surprise). Has the winning ability from last prep over this dsitance.
7. Sardaaj: Couldn’t have been given a less positive ride last start at Caulfield if you wanted one. It gave the horse 0 chance and she still finished 6th. Real concerns today she will race flat off that tough run and she is well up in grade.
Comments: Think you have to take on Sardaaj and Amanpour at the prices today while May’s Dream looks a touch of unders compared to Precious Gem. Fenway gets the gun run today and with three weeks between runs should be rock hard fit ready for this run at a distance that suits.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Small bets on Precious Gem & Fenway.
