Gear Changes: Alleyoop – Tongue Tie On
1. Moonovermanhattan: Back in class today after a very nice run at Caulfield off a tempo that did help those closer to the speed. 3kg claim has him down to 58kg though which helps a lot. He will need to be given a good ride to get in from the barrier out the front, but he is good enough.
2. Mighty Like: First up run on soft track was good but last two starts very poor. Hard to take seriously off last two runs but does have ability from a good barrier and looks the clear overs of the race on mapping and ability.
3. Harada Bay: Down from Queensland where he hasn’t been winning which is a worry. Beaten by some very average types as well. Take on.
4. Outlandish Lad: Blocked for run first up so not sure what to make of the run. 10YO now and hasn’t won in 3 years! Need to see a good run before backing.
5. Burning Front: Consistently strong to the line in any class. 11 runs in a row without missing a place. Is his best good enough? Yes, but there isn’t more than a head between him and a win type of thing. Maps to lead.
6. Lady Cumquat: Best found every prep over further than this. Can run well but can’t see winning especially from barrier.
7. Supreme Warrior: Very strong 1L 6th to The United States at MV two back in harder and then last start third to By The Grace. Back to winnable class today, barrier 1 will see him stalking the leaders for a last ditch sprint at them.
8. Schockemohle: Raced wide and still finished off quite well for 2.8L 8th first up. Needs further and not sure 1500m is the ideal for that.. but he never runs poorly at this track so win wouldn’t shock.
9. Alleyoop: NZ runner who went okay first up. Best runs on record on wetter surfaces the issue. Good barrier today up in class does have to improve.
10. Creance: Running well on wetter over in Adelaide before failing to finish off in harder grade the last two starts. Back in grade today but dryer hasn’t been his best recently around this grade.
11. So Does He: Strong win last start at Caulfield holding off Cross of Gold and clear of the rest of the field. Jump up in grade looks acceptable today off the last two runs and form around those races. Issue is 7 runs 0 wins at this track, but form barrier 7 shouldn’t have to go too wide.
12. Bon Rocket: Beat So Does He at course and distance last start. Meets 0.5kg worse off today but no matter. Strong enough form lines to suggest a good run today but barrier does hurt.
Comments: On ‘recent form’ coming into this race, Supreme Warrior has the profile to be considered the best performing horse, maps perfectly and looks very well weighted. But he has the issue of just 1 place from 6 starts at the track and hasn’t won in this class previously. Moonovermanhattan is looking for 2000m to find his best so i’m surprised to see him at favourite, but the rail should be suiting those on speed whcih may explain the price, his run two back wasn’t bad either behind Fell Swoop… 58kg looks fair but i couldn’t dive into $4 around this distance. Bon Rocket and So Does He looks slight unders on my ratings up to this grade with 1 placing from 8 starts between them in the past in this class. Burnint Fron has the same profile as those as well, measures up at the lower grades but yet to crack this grade. I keep coming back to Mighty Like and his strong first up run. His last win was in Open grade at Flemington over 1400m.. he has the ability and he maps perfectly today with Dunn going onboard. The odds look great.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Mighty Like on the Each-Way. Smaller bet on Supreme Warrior also.
