Moonee Valley Form 9 September 2017

Welcome to The Profits preview for Moonee Valley 9 September 2017. We return to Moonee Valley for the second card of the year with the rail going from the true to the 2m position and with the rain during the week and previous patterns we are expecting the sprint races to clearly favour leaders and on speed runners while it may be more even for the longer distance races where they get going a lot further out than the final 400m. Expect a Good 4 to Good 3 track throughout and some great racing. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.

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Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 4 – Killarney Kid – 3 units Each-Way @ $6.00/$2.25

Next Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 5 – Houtzen – 4 units @ $2.70 to win. Missrock – 2 units @ $10.00 to win.

Best Value
Moonee Valley Race 8 – Rhythm to Spare – 1.5 units Each-Way @ $11/$3.50

Other Bets
Moonee Valley Race 1 – Spanish Reef – 1.5 units @ $5.00 to win. Sea the Sparkle – 1.5 units @ $5.00 to win.
Moonee Valley Race 7 – Back El Divino – 0.5 units @ $14.00. Back Ruettiger – 0.5 units @ $16.00. Back Keen Array – 0.5 units @ $19.00. Back Revolving Door – 0.25 units @ $26.00.

Caulfield Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 8, 9, 10
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 8, 9, 10, 12
Quaddie Leg Three: 4, 5, 6, 9
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 9, 13

Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet

Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.

Moonee Valley Race 1 – 1600m – Ladbrokes Odds Boost Handicap
Expected Tempo: Average to Below Average
1. Domino Vitale: Nice enough run two back behind Hell or Highwater and then last start a repeat of that effort. Up 4kg today with no claimer in similar grade. Maps well.
2. War Baby: Well beaten past two starts over 1200m and 1400m. Needs further again.
3. Samovare: Very much a yard horse today. Beaten 2.5L by Swampland last start and probably should have been 3L+. Was very much under-done from the yard on the day and with nearly a month between runs will be near top. G3 winner over 1600m.
4. Special Diva: Two wins in a row in easier grade and takes the step up here. Handles all surfaces and is going well. Was a strong 3-wide no cover win last start. Has to be respected.
5. Niminypiminy: Looked well in the yard last start and ran home well even though never looking likely to figure in the finish. Fairly beaten the previous start behind Samovare. Has to improve.
6. Tavi Bay: Two runs this prep coming back from injury and has been well off the mark. Struggle to suggest.
7. Sea the Sparkle: Ran well last start getting 5kg on Hell or Highwater and looming up but not good enough. Hell or Highwater franked the form recently and this horse should be peaking.
8. Jacqui’s Joy: Out the back last start at Sandown down in grade. Takes a big step up again but may not be good enough.
9. Spanish Reef: Strong wins the past two before a close 2nd last start at Flemington over further when they didn’t run on strongly. Back to 1600m ideal and back in grade also key. Huge chance.
10. Trinity Hill: Hasn’t won in over 10 runs and is expected to run well again but not win.
11. Bettyrae Ruby: Three runs in a row and failed to fire. Not here.
12. Star Patriot: Hard to suggest placing here on previous runs so far. Not for mine.

Comments: Samovare, Special Diva, Sea the Sparkle and Spanish Reef are the four KEY standouts. Samovare is well short in the market and unbackable at the current odds. It feels like Special Diva is not any value either at the prices needing further improvement here. The two standouts on my ratings are Sea the Sparkle and Spanish Reef. They both get in well at the weights and both map forward in the run today from positive barriers. Both have form lines that will check out here.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Spanish Reef – 1.5 units @ $5.00 to win. Sea the Sparkle – 1.5 units @ $5.00 to win.

Moonee Valley Race 2 – 1509m – Sweeney We Know West Handicap
Expected Tempo: Average to Below Average
1. Aspect: Group 3 winner in the past. First up run was poor on soft from out the back. Zahra jumps on but really has to find best form to be considered a place chance.
2. Eshtiraak: Second string of the Hayes 3YOs but still very handy when well placed with a 4th in G3 last start going through the line well. Expect to be wanting further this prep and up to 1500m will help. Good barrier maps well.
4. Masculino: Trialled well heading into this prep and won very easy in CL1 grade at Cranbourne last start. Previous prep 5th in a 2Y-SWP behind some nice types. Has ability.
5. Sheer Madness: Solid win at Flemington when didn’t look super in the yard and then ran well fairly beaten behind Mutamayel last start at Sandown. Doesn’t look the type to be perfectly suited by Moonee Valley but will still run well.
6. Aberro: Laurie runner with Williams onboard today. Maiden-SW winner last start at Sandown beating Wassergeist who has run over further quite well during the week. G1 6th previous prep and 2nd to Eshtiraak in 2Y-SW. Has to be respected.
8. Sunquest: Looked a very good type on the past two runs and has stood out on the last start run storming home being the only horse to make up ground. Rock hard fit for this and only query is the step up to 1500m.
13. Kedleston: Knuckled at the 200m and could be forgiven last start for the run. Two back run was good at Flemington. Respect.

Comments: This race has really fallen away through scratchings and while I was keen to bet here with a larger field, the value has gone out of backing the three horses we like here. Can still get an okay price but at the odds, i’ve downed the confident. Sunquest and Eshtiraak are the clear standouts while Aspect is being underestimated here. Happy to take on the rest of the field with these 3 runners.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Back Eshtiraak, Sunquest & Aspect to win the same amount

Moonee Valley Race 3 – 1509m – MiMatch Handicap
Expected Tempo: Average to Above Average
1. Riyadh: Good run last start 3 weeks ago at Flemington when pulled up lame after given no chance with a very poor ride. Higgens keeps the ride and will be well back in the run.
2. Reincarnate: Three runs this prep and not been close to a place. Did run quite well two back though and has to be respected on that effort. Will be out the back which is a negative here.
3. Anaheim: First up coming off an average trial. Last wins were over significantly longer distances and this is a horse that will be better over further later into prep.
4. Majestic Duke: Solid runs the past two but never really been a chance at any stage in them. Slightly back iun class but has to improve again.
5. Instrumentalist: Looked well in the yard but clearly wanting further last start. Not longer here. Have to take on.
6. Oscar’s My Mate Pa: Going well in easier grades than this and on wetter tracks. Will need to be at his top to go well here.
7. Recalculate: Fairly beaten the past three starts. JKump in grade here.
9. Ebediyin: Weir import having his second start today in Australia. Looking for a soft track potentially. Started $5 in a G1 back home over 2400m. Needs further.
10. Emoji: Had every chance last start at Pakenham in much easier but fairly beaten at short odds. Another step up needed here.
11. Streetwise Savoire: Three runs this prep but not been close on any occasion. Struggle to suggest.
12. Cosmic Lights: Ran very well from on speed last start at course and a similar distance in this grade. Looks much fitter and looked better in the yard. Expect a strong run from midfield today.
14. Lycurgus: Went through the grades last prep and won a strong Listed grade final over 2400m. Best over further.
16. Brahmos: Lightly raced type. Good run 2nd last start in slightly easier class when drove clear and run down late. Maps nicely.

Comments: Brahmos is certainly a promising type but he is very green and very beatable here. Cosmic Lights and Riyadh are the two main runners I want to play around here and I’ll get a handle by this stage on how the track is playing.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Back Cosmic Lights and Riyadh to win.

Moonee Valley Race 4 – 2040m – LF Sign Group Handicap
Expected Tempo: Above Average
1. Amralah: Two runs this prep and ran horribly in both. Up to 2040m where should be better suited but honestly can’t see it on those two runs.
2. Killarney Kid: A massive follow-forward horse and comes into this off a strong hurdle trial win. Flashed home last start when looked well short of a run in the yard and will find lengths on that run coming into this. Looking for a good tempo and gets it.
3. Foundation: Got away with murder on speed last start and ran an improved race. Certainly, will improve for the run. Best will be seen over further again.
4. Foundry: Ran very well last start leading all the way over 1600m and found one too good in Rhythm to Spare in what was only a fairly run race speed wise. Straight up to 2040m and stronger tempo is a big negative today. Will need to be very sharp and forward.
5. Hans Holbein: Battled on first up behind Pacodali and Almandin when simply outmatched off what was too slow a tempo for this nice type. Didn’t appear fully fit in the yard and will have trained on for the run.
6. Grey Lion: Not great first up over the unsuitable 1500m but OTI runners are flying currently and a good run wouldn’t shock in the least.
7. Harlow Gold: Slashing run first up from out the back when held up for runs and kept finding off a tempo that suited the leaders. Will have improved loads for that run and only issue is a run short at this distance up in this grade.
9. Lord Durante: Played up something fierce in the yard last start and ran accordingly. Expect to be closer to the speed from the barrier today.
10. Ruling Dynasty: Two runs for new stable and two horrid performances. Can’t see it here.
11. All Clear: Looks well out of class on the two previous runs but does certainly want these distances. Even so, can’t see it here.
12. Magnapal: Ran very well first up at Flemington before two non-improved runs. Up to 2000m suitable but has to find a length or two today.
13. Darabad: Two runs in Australia has seen the horse find absolutely nothing on the track. Really hard to suggest here on trials etc.
14. Electric Fusion: Continues to run very well in similar grades with a second to Alward two back beating home Crocodile Rock and then 4th last start behind Goodwill and Andrea Mantegna.
15. Manalapan: Shown nothing the past three preps. Struggle to suggest unless super in the yard.

Comments: Speed expected to be on with Lord Durante, Amralah, Grey Lion, Magnapal, Foundry and Moonovermanhattan all going forward for positions. The standout horse with improvement to come from last start for mine is Killarney Kid who has been knocking on the door and is ready to finally make his presence felt on the track. I think Harlow Gold and Foundry are both short of runs at this distance and big unders both second up. Hans Holbein is the main threat here.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Killarney Kid – 3 units Each-Way @ $6.00/$2.25

Moonee Valley Race 5 – 1000m – Mitty’s McEwen Stakes
Expected Tempo: Very Strong
1. Russian Revolution: Flying at the trials and ready to roll first up. Best seen in the past over the wetter tracks but no disadvantage for a dry track. G1 winner.
2. Hellbent: Looked a top class Weir sprinter at times but last prep found a few too good in every race. Beaten 0.1L in the William Reid and 4th in Oakleigh Plate.
3. Supido: Not being talked about but won very well first up in the Monash before a few set backs i’m hearing. Has to be at top of game at 1000m.
4. Missrock: Maps for the run of the race 1 out 1 back behind Russian Revolution or Heatherly most likely in the run. Was well off 100% fitness first up when won very well at course and distance stalking Heatherly throughout and charging over the top late. Will improve significantly for the run and has to be considered with Vegamagic form out of the Goodwood.
5. Heatherly: Looked well in the yard first up but vetted at gates but for mine didn’t affect the run.. had every chance. Better weighted today back to Group class but has to improve and most likely doesn’t get a lead here with Houtzen in the race.
6. Unique Lovely: Been running some impressively strong 3YO races over these distances last prep. First up top weight ran well but no match for others. Tough ask.
7. Houtzen: Massive weight advantage today on the field and Williams onboard. Big query over the stable suggesting if needed they will take a sit on the horse as i’d clearly want to lead or be outside the leader. Obviously, the horse to beat at weights.

Comments: While this is a race where I have to consider all runners outside of Unique Lovely as legit winning chances, there are clearly two standouts at the prices. Houtzen will be hard to get past out front with 50kg and is the real deal while Missrock will improve loads from the first up win and maps perfectly.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Houtzen – 4 units @ $2.70. Missrock – 2 units @ $10.00.

Moonee Valley Race 6 – 1200m – Mitchelton Wines Atlantic Jewel Stakes
Expected tempo: Average to Strong
1. Shoals: Strong consistent type that ended last prep with a Heavy 8 win in G2 company over Formality. Form lines have proven to be strong and stay at sprint distances. Maps very well just off the speed.
2. I’ll Have a Bit: Very disappointing first p in G3 class after landing a G3 win last prep beating home Booker on the day. Expect a better performance today back on dryer but certainly hard to trust.
4. Pure Scot: Ended last prep with a poor G3 loss well beaten by I’ll Have a Bit and Booker. Has some ability but others preferred.
5. Undoubtable Miss: 2YO Classic winner in Adelaide but failed to fire first up when 3-wide no cover. Was okay but not great for mine. Needs to improve.
7. Broadband: G3 2nd on the record behind Time Awaits after claiming one for herself the run prior. Step up against the better fillies today. The testing material.
8. Sanadaat: Looked a very good type last prep with a nice 2YO win at Morphetville and run down the straight. First up this prep won very ease at Sandown and looked very handy. Going forwards a Thousand Guineas and distance is the only query for a horse i’d have expected to step up to 1400m today. Has been freshened.
9. Sheikha: Waterhouse/Bott runner that won a maiden and then placed 3rd behind Property in G3 class. Looked a length below but obviously, has the class to contend here.
10. Blondie: Un-surprising win first up no cover but flew home to beat an average bunch. This is much harder but clearly, she has talent and will run well.
11. Banish: Won 2 in a row heading into this in easier grades. Didn’t measure up to top level last prep so will need to have improved.
13. She’s So High: Good run from midfield last start but outclassed. This isn’t harder but will be a tough test again.
14. Tarcoola Spirit: Heavy 9 winner in BM-64 grade last start. Back to own grade but clearly has to improve.
15. Royal Disguise: Maiden winner last prep. First up this prep and does look to have some talent.

Comments: Wide open race that will sort the wheat from the chaff. Shoals and Sanadaat look the clear standouts. The Sanadaat price went up with the bookies $13 early and now into $4.25 and is getting very short for this distance. Shoals looks the other standout but is also hard to back at the price. Sheikha is the value in the race.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 8, 9, 10
Strategy: Back Sanadaat and Sheikha.

Moonee Valley Race 7 – 1200m – Strathmore Community Bendigo Bank Stakes
Expected Tempo: Average tempo
1. Keen Array: Massive run first up when defeated 3.5L. Looked great in the yard and was the widest at the turn and covered 8M extra than top 3 home. Run told the tail and a more forward position today will see him finish off a load better, even with a 3-wide run the trip.
2. Brave Smash: Crazy price today. Put up $1.65 after a 0.4L 2nd behind Vega Magic (got 6kg that day on the horse). Comes into this certainly well respected and beat the rest of the field by 4L, but this is a horse that maps to get an awkward run and need a fair bit of luck to get the right run to win. Never performed well here.
3. Santa Ana Lane: Fairly beaten the last start behind Vega Magic.
5. Prussian Vixen: Horrible run first up when dropped out with no whip. Needs another few runs.
6. Yesterday’s Songs: On best he could be considered but hasn’t shown that in a very long time. Others preferred.
7. Well Sprung: Trial winner heading in. Finished off last prep with a 2nd to Sovereign Nation at Flemington. Goes okay here but needs to improve again.
8. Oak Door: Stable elect that paraded nearly at its top last start. Stays at 1200m and up in grade the only issue. Maps to be on speed with Prussian Vixen.
9. Ruettiger: Held up for runs the last start and flew home to just miss behind Oak Door and Oberland when carrying top weight. Well down in weights today and Bayliss takes the ride. Has to be respected back at best which is Group class.
10. El Divino: Not great first up behind Missrock and a few others and is a long way off his very best you would think… but Craig Williams is booked and jumps off Ruettiger so one can only believe the step up to 1200m and is positive and the horse is flying at home? Maps well most likely 1 out 1 back.
11. Wyndspelle: First up G2 winner from NZ who won over 2000m. Needs further but still handy at these distances.
12. Revolving Door: Back to 1200m after a freshen up and this is where the horse belongs. Was toweling up the winter grade of races and finally draws a positive gate back at Moonee Valley. Respect down in the weights.
13. Pay Up Bro: Struggle to understand the nomination here. Really needs further and easier.

Comments: Wide open affair where I feel we can take on Brave Smash with a few runners at odds and still end up around the $4 odds if they win.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 8, 9, 10, 12
Strategy: Back El Divino – 0.5 units @ $14.00. Back Ruettiger – 0.5 units @ $16.00. Back Keen Array – 0.5 units @ $19.00. Back Revolving Door – 0.25 units @ $26.00.

Moonee Valley Race 8 – 1600m – Dato’ Tan Chin Nam Stakes
Expected Tempo: Average to Strong
3. Jacquniot Bay: Keeps running some very good races without winning. Good 4th last start at Caulfield from just behind the leaders in a slowly run race coming home late. Expect to be on speed again here.
4. Star Exhibit: Disappointing return on a soft track in G2 company last start. Previous prep won well in Listed grade at Caulfield bereoa G1 second over 2000m. Need to see in yard.
5. He’s Our Rokkii: Did everything asked of him when 4th behind Hartnell/CH/BHB at Caulfield first up over 1400m. back to a dryer track today and up to 1600m ideal… but even so, clearly being set for further so why does he deserve to be favourite?
6. Rhythm to Spare: Love this bloke. Consistent as the day is long. Still not 100% in the yard the past two starts so has improvement to come but has found a way to win when asked. Last start wasn’t suited by the tempo at all but still found a way to win. Massive improver here and will measure up to this grade. Big chance at odds.
7. Sir Issac Newton: Two runs in Australia for two 4L+ defeats in Group class. Never really measured up over this distance in the past and looks best suited by a slowly run 2400m or so race. Go north!
8. Articus: Respectable run first up off a slowly run tempo when just couldn’t sprint with them. Certainly wants further than this and only up to 1600m a negative. Did win over 1800m last prep but didn’t have such a bad lead in.
9. Abbey Marie: Eye-catcher last start flashing home with some strong sectionals first up. Up to 1600m where better suited and an inside rail where can shut off for most the race. Has to be respected on last start run.
10. Lizzie L’Amour: NZ import – G1 winner over 2000m. G3 over 2400m. Has gone okay over this distance in the past but finds a few too good normally. Have to take on first up.
11. Bonneval: Won four in a row last prep all Group class including two group 1s. Certainly, a top class horse but has never won at 1600m and best will be deeper into campaign targeting cups.

Comments: Keen to take on the two NZ imports while He’s Our Rokkii is far too short for this today. Rhythm to Spare is a massive price and i’m very keen to play again here with an ideal draw and run throughout.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Three: 4, 5, 6, 9
Strategy: Rhythm to Spare – 1.5 units Each-Way @ $11/$3.50.

Moonee Valley Race 9 – 1600m – Powerflo Solutions Craig Opie Cup
Expected Tempo: Strong
1. Big Duke: Very good return first up off a top weight and slow tempo out front. Stays at 1600m the only negative for a horse wanting 2400m+ distances. Maps okay.
2. Boom Time: Could potentially push forward again today from the barrier. Has won around these distances in the past and first up was a good effort off the slow pace. 3kg claim again has him well in and a tougher tempo today will suit.
3. Stampede: Waterhouse/Bott runner that has had 3 super trials heading into this. G3 winner at Doomben last prep over 2000m, won on heavy over 1600m also. Need to be at top first up to win this.
4. Raw Impulse: Disappointing last start compared to stable mate. Really feel this is a 2000m horse than 1300-1600m.
5. Here to There: Won two in a row both with expect rides. Thornton keeps the ride from barrier 3 today but I doubt they try and lead them around today. Happy to take a sit and swoop late.
6. Petrology: Disappointing enough run last start and needs to improve on that run to measure up here.
8. Onpicalo: What do we do with him? Dee jumps back on and we have to pray that they lead today.. but with blinkers trying to make him settle how will he lead this pack? Tough horse to rate right now but clearly good enough to beat.
9. Etymology: Godolphin runner that ran very nicely 3rd last start up north behind Kingsguard and Tom Melbourne. Both have run since and failed to win. Deep into campaign off so many trials. Did run 2nd in G1 Derby over 2500m. Best over further.
10. I’m Feeling Lucky: Paraded like the winner last start and found nothing at all from out the back. Hard to suggest even if looking well again.
11. Magic Consol: Looks well outranked here but has the ability to run well top 5 as always. Can’t have to win but could consider for exotics.
12. Pin Your Hopes: Better seen on wetter surfaces. First up was average at best and others preferred even at more suitable distance.
13. Settler’s Stone: Very interesting type that I have time for. Up in distance today suits and blinkers on also positive. Barrier only issue.

Comments: Tough way to end the meeting. Hard to ignore a bet on the Onpicalo leading train while Big Duke looks the one to be on here.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 9, 13
Strategy: Big Duke to win. Also back Onpicalo.