Welcome to The Profits preview for Moonee Valley on 31 December 2016. It's New Year's Eve and i'm wishing all our followers a safe and happy end to the year. It's been a crazy year for us and we have had some strong success on and off the course. Hopefully we can continue this success today as well as throughout 2017. The rail returns to true at Moonee Valley which gives us a track that will play fair throughout. I'm expecting the sprints to be dominated by the on speed to midfield position horses while I feel the toughest stayers will get the job done from any position in running. As always I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 5 – Fuhryk – 2.5 units @ $4.80. Our Luca – 2 units @ $5.50.
Next Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 3 – Lady Esprit – 2.25 units @ $4.50
Other Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 2 – Balancing Act – 1 unit Each-Way @ $19/$5.5
Best Value Bet
Moonee Valley Race 4 – Something to Share – 0.25 units Each-Way @ $126/$26
Moonee Valley Quaddie
Leg One: 2, 6, 8, 10
Leg Two: 1, 2, 6, 10, 11, 13, 17
Leg Three: 1, 3, 7, 9, 11
Leg Four: 1, 3, 9, 10, 11
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Moonee Valley Race 1 – 1000m – 1PRINT Plate
1. Kid Flash: McEvoy runner that they felt couldn't go straight into a race like this, instead going to a Geelong maiden and winning from the front in a nice enough time. Is he one of their top quality 2YO's though?
2. Bookbuild: First starter for the Freedman stable with Moor onboard. Bred well.
3. Prevailing Winds: Weir first starter with Yendall onboard. Good barrier for this colt.
4. Siam: First starter Godolphin runner with Dwayne Dunn onboard. Lugging Bit on. Wide barrier.
5. Tapestry Red: First starter for the Smerdon yard with Jacob Rule onboard (strange booking with Nolen around). Looks nicely bred for this from the inside barrier.
8. Carusmatic: Three starts heading into this. Won at Morphetville in a 4 horse race in this class over this distance before next start slowly away and not leading and simply finding two better. Hard to have from the barrier.
9. Pure Emotion: On speed on a soft track first up and didn't show a lot. Looks much better suited in her 2nd prep and will appreciate the experience.
10. Sancy's Diamond: On speed at Bendigo first up and very well beaten by 4.1 lengths. Hard to suggest the improvement.
11. Memory Bank: Not the worst bred horse in the race and obviously looking for the 1000m first up. Blinkers on and good barrier.
13. Tulip: Hayes stable. Expect the horse to want further but will be competitive according to the stable. Trialed well enough also.
Comments: 2YO trial form is not something i've ever claimed to nail and that won't change in this race. Everything I've heard from the Hayes yard suggests Tulip is a chance but that the $3 is too short especially with so many unknowns in the race. On breeding and some info floating around, i'd have to side with Prevailing Winds.
Confidence 50%
Strategy: Prevailing Winds E/W
Moonee Valley Race 2 – 1200 – Get Wines Direct Handicap
1. Crystal Fountain: Two starts for two wins heading into this over similar distances and on tracks fairly evenly suited to a horse here today. Has to be respected, but has to make another step up in class.
2. Emphatically: Maps to sit midfield at worst from the good barrier. Very strong maiden win two back in a very easy race, but the time was certainly sound. Group 3 placed as a 2YO over 1200m at Flemington. Fairly beaten last start at Sandown. Back to a dry track.
3. Giroux: Maiden winner two preps back. First up run was solid without winning. Has to improve but does have ability.
5. Millinery: Stable believe the horse wants the bend and will improve significantly today. I thought the first up run was a nice maiden win and then last start she ran very well down the straight.
6. Toorak Miss: Solid win first up at Sale. Showed a nice turn of foot. Has to improve onwards again though.
7. Bella Ava: Awkward barrier but will improve today around the bend. Really wants it wetter. Has to improve onwards here for mine to measure up.
8. Brugal Reward: Well beaten the last two starts as favourite. First up run was solid without winning. Has to improve and horrible barrier today doesn't help.
9. Dazzy's Day: Maiden winner first up in only average time. Previous runs suggest she is still a run off this from this barrier.
10. Fay's Joy: Average win last start at Sale in Maiden class. Good barrier today but has to go on with it here.
11. Nothing But a Saga: Solid 2nd behind a very good horse in Fuhryk last start, but certainly a query over how far she was beaten. Maps okay.
12. Siren's Reward: Looked the winner last start in easier at course over 1000m when claimed late by Ponte Roma. Rates well enough from a very good barrier.
13. Toorak Rose: Very strong run 2nd first up at Flemington when came home strongly over the 1100m. Has to improve onwards today from this barrier.
14. Witches: Well beaten favourite last start at course an distance when she was clearly under the odds for mine. Rates poorly for mine even from the barrier. Take on.
15. Balancing Act: Took a long time to break through for a maiden win in the past, but the last start win at Bendigo was a very solid hitout. Will be on speed from barrier 1 and if she leads today then she will be very hard to get past in the final 200m.
16. Summer Wind: Yet to get a maiden win. Has some ability but others preferred especially from the barrier.
17. Larapineta: Solid maiden win last start but wasn't the very best time you have seen. Four months between runs first up here today.. will be short in betting and unders.
Comments: Wide open race with several chances. There are certainly several chances that are under the odds and one standout for mine in Balancing Act. This horse jumped very well last start (even after knuckling) which is a big key from barrier 1 today to get an on speed position in this large field. The horse settled very well under Callow and just kept on going all the way through the line which is what is needed at Moonee Valley – a horse that won't stop. I don't really enjoy betting into fields of this size, but at the price, i'm more than comfortable betting each-way.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Balancing Act – 1 unit Each-Way @ $19/$5.5
Moonee Valley Race 3 – 1000m – Essendon Nissan Handicap
1. Angry Gee: Two runs this prep for a close 2nd to Tykiato that has franked that form since and 0.4L 4th to My Survivor at Flemington. Doesn't win out of turn and has a huge weight even after the claim here. Back in class and goes well at this distance… but never placed at track from two starts.
2. It's a Shame Billy: First up and generally goes well first up. Only run at track was a placing in the past. Last prep didn't get a win and last win was over 1100m at Bendigo over a similar distance. Has to be at his best to measure up here.
3. Appalachian Annie: Horrible last prep with two fails on soft tracks. Previous prep ran a good 2nd in F&M grade on a soft. First up back to a good track and claim with Mertens onboard. Maps most likely 1 out 1 back from the draw.
4. Lady Esprit: Maps for a midfield run today. Has won just 1 from 8 this prep which doesn't inspire a load of confidence, but she continues to run well this prep. She was very good down the straight last start blocked for a run at a critical stage and previous starts beaten by good horses. She looks well rated here from the inside barrier.
5. Manihi Mischief: Wide barrier is a big issue today for this talented Gelding. Firs tup he ran nicely for 2nd beaten 3.3L after losing a plate and going back in running. From the barrier in a big field I imagine they will jump and try and settle on speed, but there is every chance they get caught 3-wide the trip. Big chance if ridden well.
7. Definia: Fairly beaten last start at course and distance and it's very hard to see the turnaround on Manihi Mischief needed to best him… but a good barrier means he can't be completely dismissed.
8. Chat to Maggie: First up and has won both runs first up in the past being well placed. Wins on all conditions and has won in this grade in the past also over a similar distance. Has to have improved in the off season but has ability the lightly raced 6YO.
9. Gangnam Style: 1 win the past 3 preps and that was on a soft track at course and distance in this grade. Has failed to go close since that run beaten 2L+ every time. Never won first up. Has to have found another gear in off season.
10. Punt Club: Not the worst run 2nd up at Morphetville when fairly beaten 2nd to One More Daisy. Have to push very hard early to get over for an on speed position. Not for mine.
11. Moral Outrage: Inside barrier and goes forward. Should be suited by the track first up… but 7 runs for 0 wins in this class and he really needs to show what he is made off back on the turf here today. Has ability.
12. Secretan: Average maiden win followed up by a very nice 2nd to Deja Blue at Sandown before failing last start at Werribee behind Crystal Dreamer. Has to improve onwards but does have claims.
13. Rain Fast: Failed to get a win the final 6 runs of last prep after getting BM-60 and BM-64 wins on wet tracks. Hard to suggest first up on dry – 0 places from 5 first up runs.
Comments: Lady Esprit is the clear standout in this race on my ratings and i'm very keen to get involved on her today. She maps perfectly and as long as Zahra gets her out into clear air with 300-400m to run, then I can't see them holding her out. With a field this size though… that run isn't always available and that's why we get the nice price today.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Lady Esprit – 2.25 units @ $4.50.
Moonee Valley Race 4 – 2040m – Simpson Construction Handicap
1. London Fog: A nice staying run last start at Flemington when 1.4L 4th behind Flying Light in harder company. Similar weights today with the claim and looks well in. Only issue will be where he gets in the run from the wide barrier.
2. Something to Share: Horrible last start well beaten after a nice run at Ararat behind Golden Oldies. Doesn't put runs together and is very hard to keep a handle on. Best seen in the country… but has the ability to measure up here with the speed on. The run at Ararat on replay is very good considering the time and the run the horse got. Will be suited here.
3. Tucano: Two runs this prep and both were horrible. Up to a more suitable distance today in 2040m and has won both runs here at course and distance. Barrier makes things less easy but clearly he is more than good enough for this race.
4. Scelto: Hasn't won in yonks but that was over a similar distance on softer. Has been running okay heading into this but clearly has to run a prep peak performance.
5. Bring Back: Looked solid first and second up but has failed to fire since. Very hard to see the return to form even with a full month between runs.
7. Prima: Found the line well as expected last start at Flemington from on speed. Previous start was equally as good also. Will be one of three potential leaders and I expect him to be on speed and hard to get past if he brings his best here.
8. Sammy the Snake: Jumped up last start and surprised at big odds over the 1800m in BM-70 grade. When he wins, he generally continues on with nice enough runs, but this is a big step up again and i'm not convinced he is as well suited around the turn. No easy lead today either.
9. Get the Picture: Very well backed the past few starts after a good Moonee Valley win over 2040m in easier grade. Will be out the back running on. Has ability obviously.
10. It's A Silvertrail: Very hard horse to get a hold of. Looked a very nice type back home in France.. I really feel he might just be wanting the sting out of the ground to find his very best which he hasn't shown here yet. Not for me.
11. Honey Cara: Hard to ignore this talented mare. She won well two back beating a very good form line type in Sweet Melody and then last start at course and distance smashed a decent field by 6 lengths. Well in at the weights.
12. Pacific Heights: Needs to improve here but is expected to from on speed today. Stable most likely expecting his next run to be better. Never won at distance but does seem to run well. Off the last start effort I want to see the run today.
13. Galaxy Raider: A moral beaten last start at Flemington when never got a run until it was too late. His best is getting clear and going around horses.. but I really feel based on the Sale win that his very very best is a longer straight than this. Nice barrier but will get back and need to be good again.
14. Chiatorio: Nice win last start in Adelaide to make it three on the trot. Up in grade here and a horrible barrier doesn't help, but he is going well enough.
15. Fiona Crystal: Only a fair win two back before an on speed 6th last start in easier grade at course and distance. Has to improve.
16. King of England: Jumps favourite or 2nd favourite at almost every start in easier grades than this and continues to get beaten. Hard to suggest here.
Comments: Several chances here in one of the most open races of the day. Honey Cara deserves to be the favourite here, but I don't see any value in the price. Prima will be on speed out front and hard to get past while Get The Picture will be flying home late. Something to Share is the big chance at odds for mine and I want to have a little something on with pace in the race predicted.. this horse loves it hard!
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Honey Cara is the top pick here. I'll just be having a very small bet E/W on the value runner. Something to Share – 0.25 units Each-Way @ $126/$26
Moonee Valley Race 5 – 1200m – Melbourne Signage Concepts Gold Carat
1. Widgee Turf: Ran poorly first up at Moonee Valley over the 1200m from last to finish 3L off Wise Hero. Back to Flemington for the first time 2nd up ran very well and got a nice win over the 1400m. Strangely back to 1200m and Moonee Valley here. Not for me.
2. Gratwick: Should get a gun run today from barrier 4. Solid enough the past two starts over 1400m and the step back to 1200m should be no negative at all here. Weir knows what he is doing. Respect.
3. Segovia: Disappointing enough 3rd last start over the 955m at this course fairly beaten. Up to 1200m where he last won his maiden, this is a big step up in grade.
5. Ontoff Ofthe World: Gelded since we saw him last. Good enough maiden winner last prep on Heavy but hasn't shown us much else. Hard to rate but I think he has a good future over further.
6. Our Luca: Very strong front running win last start at Sale. Will be pushing forward to lead from wide out. Respect his ability on that first up win.
7. Just Gets'em: Yet to win a maiden and only placing was 10L off the winner. No.
8. Fuhryk: Perfect barrier and going very well at home. Won two in a row in solid enough times. Very well suited to this track and distance from a very nice barrier.
9. Sister Kitty Mac: Won two in a row before an only fair 5th last start at Flemington. Has to improve onwards again to measure up. Maps well.
10. Princess of Queens: Nice enough maiden win last prep before over-racing and running 3.3L 5th behind Sweet Sherry in harder class at course and distance. Has untapped potential.
11. Ardra Storm: Maiden win over further two back. Failed to get home last start at Sandown over 1400m. Not for mine here.
12. Layne's Star: Hasn't been able to score in a maiden yet so struggle to suggest a place.
Comments: Two clear standouts on my ratings in Our Luca and Fuhryk. Very keen to back both here for a result.
Confidence 90%
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 6, 8, 10
Strategy: Fuhryk – 2.5 units @ $4.80. Our Luca – 2 units @ $5.50.
Moonee Valley Race 6 – 1200m – Quest Moonee Valley Handicap
1. Kievann: Ran better than expected first up for third at course and distance when losing a plate. Last start didn't run as well 5th at Flemington. Back around the bend and back in class… looks well weighted. Good barrier.
2. Danuki: Three wins in a row before starting favourite down the straight at Flemington. Back around a bend today is the key and well back in class. Will be on speed and very hard to hold out.
4. Silver Bolt: Won 5 races in a row last prep in Tasmania so is certainly a talented horse. Four runs this prep in similar to harder company and yet to get a win. Struggle to suggest for mine today.
5. Stellar Collision: Ran as the price drift expected last start at Flemington when horrible. Terrible barrier today and looks up against it to get the run of the race.
6. Armada: Ran nicely last start 3L behind Divine Mr Artie down the straight after a fair run 4th to Airalign at Kilmore the run prior. Going the right way and looks nicely in here. WIll be far back in running is the only negative.
7. Grand Emperor: Failed to fire last start in Adelaide after a good soft track win at Sandown. Up in class again here and has to produce a career peak to win.
8. Oscar's My Mate Pa: Horrible last start in Adelaide in harder class when favourite yet ran 6L last from an on speed position. Previous start in country won nicely from on speed… This does look a tougher race though for mine based on form. Has to improve.
9. Solsay: Hasn't won in yonks and may be coming to the end of his racing career if he doesn't find a better run today.
10. Tuff Host: Old mate goes well at these distances so don't dismiss him. Horrible barrier today though has him up against it after 9 months off. Likes this track.
11. Roman Fizz: Continues to run well this prep, but he had every chance last start at Flemington and wasn't good enough to run down My Survivor. Has to improve onwards again.
12. Bob of the Head: Won second up at Sale in similar grade. Three runs since though and hasn't been close to a win. I did think the run last start behind Smart Dart had some merit.
13. Devils Pinch: First up ran well 2nd to Cheeky Babe at Mornington but was beaten on the day. Maps midfield from the inside barrier. Best is clearly slightly below this.
14. Not a Happy Camper: This girl is very hard to catch but on her day she certainly goes well. Three runs since a win have been poor at best. Good barrier but has to improve.
15. Quarck: Two wins this prep in much easier grade both starts. Horrible barrier. Has to clearly find more lengths.
16. Mick's Hustler: Old mate Mick got a win at the start of last prep but before that was a long time between drinks. First up today but 6 starts 0 placing in this grade.
17. Wolf Cry: Went around favourite last start at Flemington and ran last in a very poor rating race. Back around a turn should be better suited but barrier doesn't help chances.
18. It's Humphrey: Needs further.
Comments: A race with several key chances… it's really a tricky form race. Kievann maps perfectly here and brings the right form lines for mine today to run very well. At the weights with claims, he will be very hard to get past.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 6, 10, 11, 13, 17
Strategy: Kievann E/W
Moonee Valley Race 7 – 1200m – Snap Fitness Essendon Handicap
1. Go Down: Two very strong wins to start the prep and then slowly away last start and was never looked suited hard ridden a long way out finishing off okay. Bad barrier again today – that was a hot race form wise but gee she would want to jump well today off that run.
2. Pantheress: Two solid runs heading into this today when never really got close to a win running wide in the race on both occasions. Won't have it any easier today.
3. Anatola: Up in distance today after a 0.5L 2nd to Scandimania at this course last start. Good barrier should mean she settles on speed just off the rails and isn't held up like last time. Clearly a top pick.
4. Modestry: Disappointing run last start when wide throughout racing. Previous start a huge 0.1L 2nd at big odds at Ararat. Has the ability but has to show it from the good gate.
6. Safariann: Won three back in easier grade over 1200m. Last two starts over 1400m+ were okay but never really got close to a win. Back in distance to try something different. Step up in grade.
7. Sallanches: Good win at course and distance last start beating some average types. Step up in grade today and won't find an easy lead – but her best ratings suggest she has the ability to do it from a midfield position today – which may be the case from the horrible barrier.
8. Ski Angel: Wagga to Canterbury last start where she ran well 3rd behind Il Mio Destino. Down to Melbourne and looks well suited by the track today. Will sit midfield at best. Win wouldn't be a total shock.
9. Sullivan Bay: Ignore last start. Starting to come into form at home on track work according tot he stable. Her best is good enough to win this and she maps well from the barrier. Has to be considered.
10. Deal With It: Lightly raced good type of horse. Two wins last prep before failing in higher level running wide during the race. Best has been seen on wetter tracks so a bit of an unknown first up over the shorter distance. Bred to want further.
11. Stella The Boss: Back in class today after a very nice run 4th at Bendigo from on speed last start. Good barrier but will struggle to find the early speed to lead today.
13. Euston Road: Last prep measured up to a higher level than this and looked a very nice type down the straight. Only attempt at MV was a failure to place. First up was horrible and well beaten. Hard to suggest.
14. Extra Olives: Beaten favourite last start at Kyneton on Heavy. Back to a dry track and has the ability to run well.
15. Blithe Belle: Not the worst run 2.5L 8th at Flemington first up. Previous prep won 3YOF grade at Caulfield over 1200m from the back. Respect her top ability.
16. Winspot: Two wins this prep then struggled to show the form needed to win in this type of grade. Has to improve but does map well.
17. Adalita: CL1 winner two back at Pakenham. Failed to fire on Soft last start. Firs tup was okay on soft though. Hard horse to rate.
18. Autumn Time: Couldn't win BM-64 grade last start suggests she is up against it here.
Comments: Anatola, Go Down and Sallanches all rate to have key chances in this race. Anatola maps to get the run of the race while Sallanches is the clear overs. Stella The Boss and Sullivan Bay also deserve some thought at odds.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 3, 7, 9, 11
Strategy: Anatola to win.
Moonee Valley Race 8 – 1000m – William Hill Handicap
1. Divine Ten: First starter in Australia after a career in Hong Kong that included a Group 3 win, Group 3 2nd behind Aerovelocity and various CLS3 and above wins. Hasn't been seen on the track since 2014 but has been well backed $12 into $6 at time of writing.
2. General Truce: DOesn't win out of turn this bloke and he just hasn't been running well at all. Hard to suggest here.
3. Beau Rada: Every chance down the straight last start at Flemington but did run quite well. Back around the turn better suited. Maps to need luck from the position 3-4 back the fence.
4. Grane: Ran a blinder last start at massive odds down the straight at Flemington and was blocked for runs at critical stages. Weighted well enough back in class and should go close here over the 1000m with the right run.
5. It is Written: Just doesn't seem to want to get a win and hasn't in the past three preps. Was a very good run 3rd last start at Pakenham and back in class here back to the 1000m.
6. Bullpit: Shown nothing on the track this prep and has to be taken on today. Better down the straight.
7. Hard Romp: At his best, he is clearly more than good enough to put this field away, but first up he showed absolutely nothing. A month and a bit between runs, expect better. 11 runs 0 wins at this track a big concern.
8. Lonrockstar: Drifted in the betting first up and never really got close to the win but wasn't too bad. Never won at track but does run well here. A win wouldn't be a total shock.
9. Olivier: Last start in similar grade over in Adelaide had every chance and let two others beat him (only just). Best runs have been around turns with longer straights so will be interesting to see how he handles this. Poor barrier.
10. Cashed: Beat Olivier last start in Adelaide but is certainly worse off at the weights. His best is well below this for mine.
11. Rock 'n' Gold: Always runs well here but doesn't win often. Blocked for runs at critical stages last start when probably should have got home and won. Continues to be ridden for luck. Has ability. Can win.
12. Sunday Escape: Big run two back at course and distance. Has to improve again but will be going forward.
Comments: This is a very hard to rate race. Divine Ten could be anything if back to it's best as the money suggests. Beau Rada will run very well as well as Rock 'n' Gold who will need a bit of luck in running. Hard Romp also back to his best will be hard to hold out and even Olivier, Cashed and Lonrockstar have to be considered.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 3, 9, 10, 11
Strategy: Back both Beau Rada and Rock 'N' Gold.
