Welcome to The Profits preview from Moonee Valley on 3 June 2017. Racing returns to the best track in the country with the rail back in the True. We are expecting the swoopers to have every chance today, but i’m expecting riders to get a little smarter as the day goes on and realise being 2-4 off the rail is the best ground to be had and moving of it even with leaders later in the day. I’m really keen on a few bets on the card and feel the market has well and truly missed a first starter import that carries a timeform rating similar to what Articus bought into the country. Don’t forget to head over to the Trainer’s Say post to see what all the big stables have to say about their runners today. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 8 – Longeron – 2.25 units Each-Way @ $11/$3.50
Next Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 3 – Miss Vista – 2 units @ $4.00 to win. Core Breach 1 unit @ $8.50 to win.
Best Value Bets
Moonee Valley Race 5 – Goodwood Zodiac – 1.25 units Each-Way @ $14/$4.00
Moonee Valley Race 9 – Sheriff John Stone – 0.75 units Each-Way @ $31/$8.50
Other Bets
Moonee Valley Race 4 – The Passage – 1.5 units @ $4.40
Moonee Valley Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 6, 7, 8, 11, 13
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 6, 11, 12
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 7, 12, 15
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 3, 4, 7, 10
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
For those that like to hear a bit about the insights into each race, here are our thoughts via Video to go with the full previews below!
Moonee Valley Race 1 – 1200m – Dominant Cleaning Solutions Handicap
1. Wired: Maiden winner last prep beating some okay types. Two runs this prep and both were pretty good behind some very nice horses in Je Suits Tycoon and Prevailing Winds. Maps for a very good run.
2. Carusmatic: Failed last start at Ballarat. Previous prep did measure up as a 2YO in Adelaide winning a 42k 2YO-SWP race, but it was a 4 horse race and I don’t think the form is top shelf. Has to improve.
3. Wanted Diva: Stable are keen on her today. Maiden winner heading into this at Cranbourne having failed first up in the Sires. Have to believe she is a nice type but would need to improve onwards.
4. Admiral Michelle: Fairly beaten by Wanted Diva last start at Cranbourne. Has to improve to place here.
5. Bobby Rocks: Drifter and double figure odds. Nothing available trial wise or public jump out wise.
6. Mia Georgia: Reasonably strong Caulfield jump out on 23/05 that suggests she has ability and will be right in this from the barrier.
7. Seductive Miss: Bred to want much further. Only run last prep was backed in 4 horse race when beaten 3.25L. Has to improve.
8. Star Creation: Cheap purchase. 12/05 jump out at Flemington was okay but nothing great. Could have gone on since then but looks to need a run here.
9. Behave: Only run last prep didn’t show much at all in a very good race. Has been well backed from a good barrier. Find it hard to back this stable at the shorts off such poor form runs.
10. Indrabeel: Well bred type that hasn’t been able to win a maiden. Others preferred on current form.
11. True Pride: Big price 3rd last start at Seymour in maiden class. Nicely enough bred but has to improve on current form to win.
Comments: Not a race i’m overly keen to get involved with. Wired looks to map perfectly from the inside barrier and will run a very solid race at the price. Looks the horse to beat.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Wired to win.
Moonee Valley Race 2 – 1200m – Dominant Clean Handicap
1. Whistle Baby: Struggled last start in listed company at Flemington down the straight. Back to Moonee Valley where she has won in the past and stays at 1200m. Two back run over 1440m was her best run this prep.Has the ability if they run this along.
2. Telopea: Weir runner two runs into prep. Both runs have been terrible but the horse has been decently enough backed on both occasions. Step back in class here but stays at 1200m. Well in at the weights considering.. last two wins were over further than this and on softer ground the only queries. If money comes you have to respect it.
3. Vital Importance: Won very well first up at Caulfield over 1200m off a 100 day break. Finds herself in a reasonably similar race class wise and should be expected to run a similar race as long as she can get a shot at them late again. Barrier 1 but she should go back again. Will need luck but has the ability.
4. Hell or Highwater: Goes well at this track and over this distance but her very best in the past has been over further. Gets in well at the weights and will go back from the barrier.
5. Grey Street: They flew around last start at Caulfield over the 1200m which was expected to suit Grey Street but she did find one too good on the day. She will be getting back and running on… query over the 1200m distance with 6 runs for 0 wins and had every chance last start.
6. Majestic Lass: Very disappointing last start at Caulfield when pushed along early and failed to fire any shots. Pulled up with Mucus so wasn’t well on the day. Have to forgive and has a 1 win from 1 run at this track record. Looks to get a perfect spot 1 out 2 back in running.
7. Swiss Kiss: Corstens runner that is looking to go through the grades this prep. Won nicely first up at Wangaratta as favourite in much easier company. Has to improve onwards again.
8. Foreign Affair: Four runs this prep and hasn’t been able to break through. Last 3 runs have been beaten by 2.9L or more. Tough to suggest a win on current form.
9. Liberty Hill: Been going around in much easier grade over in Adelaide. Last start 6th behind Chase The Horizon as a $101-1 shot at Morphetville. Has to improve to place.
10. Valrouz: Looks the leader on paper today. Comes into this with a win at Pakenham in much much much easier grade at big odds. Isn’t the type you push as hard as you can.
11. Sallanches: Two runs this prep. Second up led them around at Caulfield in a very fast time so that would be hoped for again today. Did similar first up at Sale. Won here last prep at course and distance in much easier grade.
Comments: The tempo in this race really relies on what Newitt does outfront on Sallanches who is expected to set a medium to fast tempo. Of the main chances in the race, Majestic Lass gets the run of the race and will be the one to get past in the final 100m. Vital Importance will get a long way back as will Grey Street and Telopea… there will be a real wall coming into the straight for runs that will affect those out the back. Happy to stick with Majestic Lass knowing there is every chance we could get a less than average tempo that would also suit.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Majestic Lass E/W
Moonee Valley Race 3 – 1000m – Cafetto Handicap
1. Orujo: 7 runs this prep and has failed to go within 4L the past 3 starts and 3L the past 6. Just not going well enough on recent form to consider here.
2. Core Breach: Won at course and distance last prep with ease in easier company and a top weight. Comes into this with a 3kg claim coming off a 2L win over 900m. Suited by this track and by the tempo. Win wouldn’t be a shock at all and looks one of the clear chances.
3. Dance with Fontein: Bounced back at Sandown with a win over the 1000m on a soft 5 beating some okay types. This looks much harder on paper though and she will need to have improved at the weights.
4. Big Reel: Synthetic 3rd with a decent weight last start at Pakenham behind El Sicario. Was a nice enough run but was fairly beaten and barrier doesn’t help.
5. The Dynamo: Two runs this prep and been well beaten on both occasions. Last prep showed much more.. hard to suggest.
6. Aunty Mo: Five runs this prep and hasn’t placed the past three attempts. Goes well at track but hard to suggest here.
7. Miss Vista: Strong run 2nd last start at Caulfield. Trialled like a babe between runs and looks set to fire here with a very good weight back to this grade. Only query is how the track is playing but i’m expecting her to sit off the rail. May just be too fast for these.
9. Ability: Has always looked a horse with top ability but only got a BM-70 last prep at Geelong. Trialled well into this but obviously needs to take another step up. Will be suited by the tempo being on but will be tough to find a spot from the barrier.
11. El Sicario: Five runs this prep but finally broke through last start on the Synthetic with a very easy win overall. Has never won on turf i a big issue and looks well under the odds even on mapping.
12. Niminypiminy: Failed to win in her past ten runs. Doesn’t exactly have a great record first up and this distance doesn’t look to be her jam either.
14. Little Indian: Nice win over 1000m five runs back at Flemington and failed to show any similar class after that. Get back run on type. Hard to suggest for mine.
15. Mr Optimistic: BM-58 winner two back at Mornington. Massive jump in class and looks a terrible throw at the stumps.
17. Secretan: BM-70 2nd first up at Cranbourne so not the worst placed here. Tough barrier when pushing forward in this field.
18. Jersey Whistler: Couldn’t place last start behind Secretan at Cranbourne. Can’t see it here.
Comments: Core Breach, Miss Vista and Ability are the three standouts in this relatively limited field. I really have to take on El Sicario for many reasons here and think the price is terrible all over. Ability will be getting a long way back in the run and need to be very good to score here. Core Breach and Miss Vista are the two I like the most. Both map on speed and both shouldn’t get caught in on the fence if it’s playing as off as is being suggested by a few pros.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Miss Vista – 2 units @ $4.00 to win. Core Breach 1 unit @ $8.50 to win.
Moonee Valley Race 4 – 1600m – ADAPT Australia Handicap
1. Vienna Miss: Strong win in the Adelaide Guineas at big odds from just off the speed. Clearly hard to forget off that run on the day and has to be considered here.
2. Jaws of Steel: Ground out a win last start at Sandown coming off a wide no cover run at Caulfield prior to that in harder company. Certainly a nice type but barrier will make it hard to get the right run. Needs to improve again.
3. Greviste: Beaten favourite last start at Flemington when peaked but didn’t have a lot left after getting to the front too early. Will improve for the run but certainly a query over the horses ability in this grade to get the job done.
4. The Passage: Flying last start at FLemington when just not able to get a run on the day. Should have bolted up and finds himself well down in the weights here from a very attractive barrier. Yendall rides and has a positive ROI from the past 12 months at this track for a reason, he rides it well. Will be very hard to hold out.
5. What a Shock: Missed the start and ran horrible last start at Sandown. Needs to be on the speed and allowed to roll, but even so, the previous start win was a very poor time. Has a lot to prove here.
6. Barbie’s Boy: Short backup today. Ran home well but no match for Widgee Turf last start over 1400m. Straight up to 1600m where should be nicely suited and gets in well at the weights. Barrier the big issue for the right run today.
7. Atlantic Express: Hit the front at the 200m last start and looked like he was going to forge away with the win last start but his ability caught up with him and he failed to fight out the final 100m running 3rd in the end. Certainly a good type of horse but needs improvement at these weight scales to win at this track. Barrier doesn’t help mapping.
8. A Moving Place: Maiden winner last start and took 5 runs to break through. Huge jump in class and I couldn’t see it here.
9. Fortify: Two runs this prep after winning his maiden and they have both been poor. This is much harder and I can’t even justify a place.
10. Snipfit: Maiden winner over this distance last prep. Two lead in runs and couldn’t get a CL1 win last start at Cranbourne. Needs to clearly improve lengths.
11. Kaptive Hero: Griffiths runner and gets Caserta onboard (negative). Ran a close 2nd to jaws of Steel two back but was well outclassed at Flemington on a Good surface. Needs more rain.
12. Pirllina: Pakenham synthetic win – maiden class in slow time. Massive improvement required.
13. Scholarly: Couldn’t win a maiden. Waterhouse stable runner but even so I can’t see it here.
14. Dandre: Three races to date and failed to get closer than 1.45L off a win in maiden grade. No thanks.
Comments: Several horses of limited ability in this race. Vienna Miss maps for the run i don’t want in this race and also is hard to judge on form. I don’t expect a huge pace out front but they will run it along with several horses trying to get on speed. The runners i’m interested in will all be swooping and the main one is The Passage who I hope gets a position midfield 2 or 3 off the rail with cover.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: The Passage – 1.5 units @ $4.40 to win.
Moonee Valley Race 5 – 1600m – Cafetto Coffee Clean Handicap
1. Pheidon: Two runs this prep and beaten 20L combined total. Up to 1600m here but really hasn’t shown anything to suggest he is going well enough to contest from the past 500 days of racing.
2. Victory Downs: Three runs this prep and has gone close in that time with a close 2nd in listed grade behind Riziz at Morphetville. Best run was on a softer track is the only query here… but his best runs in the past have all been on good to soft so it should be fine. Did run 5th in G3 grade last start. Big step down in class and Finnegan retains the ride.
3. Cheryl’s Horse: Good on Cheryl (whoever she is) for getting a horse! Won 4 of last 5 including last two in open class in tasmania.. Steps up from 25k prize money races to 80k races and this is the true testing material. 2100m back to 1600m a query also here on dryer also.
4. Coldstone: Very strong run last start when just didn’t have the speed on out front and ground his way through the line. Previous start showed how he likes to grind these out with clear running. Won’t be leading today but not sure he maps well today either from the bad barrier. Will need luck.
5. By The Grace: Nice run 2nd at the bool last start on the heavy track. Previous three runs had shown nothing this prep. Bool form hasn’t exactly measured up in town and he has a terrible record on Good tracks.
6. Here to There: Good win two back at Morphetville in harder company over 1400m. Last start given a terrible time at Flemington over 1400m when 3-wide no cover and was on speed with a hot tempo out front setting the race up for swoopers. 3kg claimer goes on and needs to be good here. Looks the speed angle.
7. Magic Consol: Horsham Cup winner last prep. Two runs this prep and was beaten 36 lengths in total. 20 days between runs but clearly needs a run here.
8. Mr Individual: Very well backed last start over 1400m at Flemington and didn’t run on at all. Back in class here today and we know he goes very well at this course and distance on previous runs. There looks to be much less speed in this race today and Mr Individual will sit further forward. Big chance if back to his best.
9. Goodwood Zodiac: UK Import that has been Gelded. Winner at Epsom back in August of 2016 over 2000m. Previous best win was also over 2000m. Short of his best over the 1600m but well enough suited in this grade of race. Has similar Timeform ratings to what Articus bought into Australia. Does look over the odds in this grade.
11. New Graduate: Two wins in a row heading into Flemington last start when ran very well and was the best backed of the Weir runners but found Northern Journey to beat her. Has to improve again but looks suited.
Comments: Victory Downs has to be respected off the runs over in Adelaide. Cheryl’s Horse is a big unknown from the Tasmanian form and Here to There is expected to bounce back. Mr Individual is also expected to run better here but the standout for mine is Goodwood Zodiac. They have just simply missed the horse in the market in what looks a very winnable race.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Goodwood Zodiac – 1.25 units Each-Way @ $14/$4.00
Moonee Valley Race 6 – 1500m – William Hill Handicap
1. Every Faith: Thrown in the deep end first up and ran not terrible in G1 company beaten 4.7L 13th at Morphetville. Up in weight here but not without chances on that run honestly up to 1500m!
2. Have Another Glass: Emily Finnegan having her third ride at this track and her mount if favourite… tough to back thats for sure. G2 2nd behind Amelie’s Star two back and then last start 3rd behind Exocet and Sort After. Obviously the class runner but hard to suggest with jockey onboard at this track.
3. Hot Ruby: Just got the job done last start from a nice position. They didn’t run overly fast and that set it up perfectly. 2000m back to 1500m is a tough ask.
4. Lopartega: BM-70 winner two back over 1600m at Sandown before running poorly behind Have Another Glass last start. Hard to suggest even at best on what we saw last start. Needs them to crawl i think to win.
5. Violent Snow: Hard horse to catch and has shown very best in easier in the past. First up wasn’t terrible but ddin’t show me alot. A few weeks between runs but has to have improved. Out back run on type.
6. Dulverton: Going back to near last today with no weight with the 3kg Aitken claim. Always been a progressive type and was G3 4th last prep at course over similar distance. Has won in this grade at course in the past also from closer to the speed.
7. Mamzelle Tess: Three wins in a row going through the grades and lat start won by 4 lengths on a soft 5 off a slowish tempo. Looks the real deal! Respect even from barrier as will be going forward.
8. Typhoon Jolie: G3 4th behind Fuhryk and a few others last start which was a big improvement on three previous runs. Had every chance on the day out front. Maps nicely on speed again.
9. Miss Universe: Bm-64 winner at Casterton up to this. Looks really tough ask on paper. Should be on speed from inside barrier.
10. Sensation Ally: Will push forward and try and lead them around today. Beaten 4L last start by Mamzelle Tess and no excuses. Hard to suggest the win.
11. Trinity Hill: Bm-78 2nd behind Thelburg last start off a very solid tempo. Maps for an ideal run today and has the ability to win this on times.
12. Champagne Cocktail: Three runs this prep and hasn’t got within 1L of a win in easier grades. Hard to suggest.
13. Themis: BM-70 2nd last start at Sandown from a perfect spot. Can improve up to 1600m today but has to prove it here.
14. Four Sisters: BM-64 Sandown winner last start for the Kent stable. Huge step up in class and I can’t see the ability this early in career.
16. Eolande: Pakenham BM-64 grade winner in very slow time. One to clearly take on here.
17. Don’tbabylon: BM-64 grade winner. Last start effort well below this even with step up to 1600m.
18. Dance for Me: Forgive run first up over 1400m behind Four Sisters, but hasn’t shown enough in the past to suggest a win or palce in this grade especially from such a poor barrier.
Comments: One of the toughest races on the card and I really couldn’t get involved at any level apart from the Quaddie from a form point of view.
Confidence 40%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 6, 7, 8, 11, 13
Strategy: Back Dulverton and Every Faith.
Moonee Valley Race 7 – 1200m – WT Partnership Handicap
1. Le Bonsir: Horrible first up at Flemington. Getting on in age being 9YO now. A month between runs and goes well 2nd up. 59kg. Better suited up to 1200m but has to improve obviously.
2. Del Prado: 8 runs last prep but failed to get a win.
3. Heza Ripper: Going well enough this prep but hasn’t got a win on the board yet. Two back ran very well 3rd behind Miss Gunpowder at Caulfield from last. Not a great run at Morphetville but previous run suggests he has the ability to run well here.
4. Chase the Horizon: Very strong win last start at Morphetville from near last. Will be suited here today but certainly has to make up a load of ground on them in the final 200m.
5. Painte: Come down from Sydney for a chance at dryer tracks I imagine. Wasn’t bad first up over 1000m on a heavy track but last start was bad. Been wide no cover both starts and barrier 12 will mean every chance he gets a similar run again today. Best is good enough.
6. Camdus: Weir runner that has been fairly beaten the past two starts but has been running okay enough. Has to improve onwards again first time at this track. Takes a few runs to get going but does go well at this distance.
7. Chamois Road: Got the win last start at Ballarat in easier grade. Star Stealer has failed up in grade since and the form lines aren’t exactly rock solid.
8. Kirani: Good trial leading into this. Never run at the track a bit issue, but does go well first up and measured up well enough last prep to suggest a nice run.
9. So Does He: Average at best first up. Jump in class and stays at 1200m. Hard to suggest.
10. Can’t Refuse: Best runs in the past have been over MUCH further. Huge ask first up over this distance. No thanks.
11. This Kid Rocks: Won three in a row before three placings in a row since in harder grades of races. Won here this prep over 1200m and has been running well but finding one or two too good. Has to be respected as he is flying at the moment but the barrier makes things tough.
12. Leodoro: 0.4L behind Cannyescent two back at Bendigo from well back and this form line looks solid. Ignore the Heavy track 3rd which was still a good run and looks better back to 1200m on a good surface. Will need luck in running though.
13. Subject to Change: Two starts two wins in a row heading into this at country grade. Huge improvement required to win this.
Comments: Wide open race that is hard to find a clear favourite on my ratings. Chase the Horizon was huge last start and will need to be as good here to measure up. The bolter at odds is Le Bonsir who could improve lengths and run a really good race here while Heza Ripper maps nicely on the day also.
Confidence 50%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 6, 11, 12
Strategy: Le Bonsir E/W
Moonee Valley Race 8 – 2040m – Essendon Nissan Handicap
2. Longeron: Massive run last start at Flemington and I really feel he is the ‘forgotten’ horse coming into this race considering they are betting us double figures. He had no right to run 6th at Flemington where they went fast early, faster during the middle and a little slower late into the strong headwind that made it impossible to lead and win at Flemington on the day. It was a massive improvement on previous runs and this bloke is absolutely flying. He doesn’t have to improve on that run, he just has to run up to the same ratings here and he will be very hard to beat. Maps as the clear leader in the race along with Show a Star.
3. Lord Durante: Old mate has had 4 runs this prep and found absolutely nothing. Freshened up and probably runs a much better race up to 2040m today, but this is a huge ask.
4. Cougar Express: WA import that didn’t exactly fire over there apart from winning a Kalgoorlie Cup. Two runs this prep for a fail on heavy and a 4th in the Casterton Cup which is only fair form. Hard to suggest here even with the 3kg claim.
5. Black Tomahawk: Weir runner that hasn’t been backed either start and was poor to finish off last prep. Very much doesn’t know how to win a race and best is over further.
6. Magnapal: Four runs this prep and hasn’t been within 4L of a win. Struggle to suggest here.
7. Show a Star: Nice type that won over 1600m three back at Flemington. Failed in the Golden Mile going too fast since and then ran a respectable 3rd over 1800m. Tough ask up to 2000m and they won’t be giving him any peace out front to run it around slowly.
8. Tick Tick Bloom: Horrible as 2nd favourite last start at Morphetville. Previous run at the Bool was a big winner for the stable on Heavy over 1700m. Form coming out of the Bool hasn’t held up and they have all needed extra runs. Hard to suggest based on last start from this barrier. Will get back and run on.
9. Hursley: Found the right race two back at Caulfield. Last start at Flemington settled well out the back from a wide barrier and just didn’t have the late dash to close the gap. Terrible barrier today and will have a hard time of it again to make up the ground.
10. Rose of Virginia: Not the worst run first up if i’m honest over the unsuitable 1600m. 2000m doesn’t look much better but has won over 2200m in recent preps.
11. Shoreham: Old mate continues to run well over this distance range but hasn’t won in a long time. 3rd behind Northern Journey last start at Flemington. Doesn’t seem to be a MV type.
12. Gallic Chieftain: Forgive run last start at Flemington when clipped heels after getting too far back and went too wide on the turn. Sectionals were okay though finishing off but it really wasn’t the greatest run. Personally don’t feel he is the type of horse to be suited by Moonee Valley. Poor barrier.
13. Snitzelwood: Ran a blinder at big odds last start for third at Caulfield. Fairly beaten on the day though behind Hursley and Overberg. Has to improve onwards again to get wins over Hursley and Overberg at the weights.
14. Cinnamon Carter: Horrible last start over 1400m at Pakenham. Big step up in distance on a short turn around and this grade is a bit too tough for her third up.
15. Overberg: Well weighted today after running 3rd to Odeon/Hursley two back at Caulfield and then beaten 0.1L last start at Caulfield by Hursley. Doesn’t map the greatest but blinkers back on should see him settle better and finish off.
16. Northern Journey: Surprise winner last start at Flemington in a averagely run race where they didn’t go along too fast early and ran similar sectionals late in the running. Doesn’t get the best of runs today from the outside barrier. Has to improve.
Comments: There really aren’t many winning chances in this race today and this gives us a great opportunity. Hursley maps too far back and i’m keen to take it on. Overberg is well below the correct odds and maps midfield. Gallic Chieftain will be in a similar position today. Show a Star is up to an unsuitable distance for mine for how well this will be run along. The horse I clearly want to be on here in Longeron who proved last start he has the perfect racing style for this type of race to lead them along at even tempos from start to finish and he is flying.
Confidence 90%
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 7, 12, 15
Strategy: Longeron – 2.25 units Each-Way @ $11/$3.50
Moonee Valley Race 9 – 1200m – Dominant Handicap
1. Ken’s Dream: Disappointing last start as favourite in the G2 Euclase at Morphetville when on speed and just didn’t show much at all. Previous start 3-wide no cover and ran 2nd behind Rich Charm at Caulfield. Prior run was a good win in this grade of race. His best is good enough to measure up but others preferred on progression for mine. Does map well.
2. Benz: Group 3 winner at Caulfield four runs back. Failed to fire since then on 2 occasions in harder company and found one too good in BM-90 grade at Morphetville last start in Ashlor. The faster they go today the horse chance he has.
3. Highland Beat: Two runs this prep. First up was horrible but last start was held up for runs the final 250m. Can obviously improve on that effort today but barrier 14 makes it tough to find a positive position.
4. Run Gypsy Run: Wide barrier and pushed on strongly last start to get the on speed position and win well. It was a very strong first up run. Every chance of running flat today but with 1.5kg claim does get in well enough. Expecting Mertens to not run them along as fast as last start if attempts to lead.
5. Mystified: Adelaide runner that measured up at Moonee Valley and Caulfield last prep with Oliver and Dunn taking rides on those days. Two runs in this prep and has been defeated fairly in easier grades of races leading into this but last start wasn’t too bad a run. Symons takes the ride from a tough barrier 13. Has to improve.
6. Terindah: Cranbourne winner between runs. Fairly beaten the run prior and has to improve. Others preferred.
7. Blue Tycoon: Momentum horse. Last start got out and got home well flying late to run 3rd at Caulfield. Personally think he had his chances and will need to improve onwards and upwards again today. Maps for the right run today.
8. La Volt: BM-64 grade winner last prep before failing to get close in a BM-70. Has to improve significantly to place. Needs furhter for his best.
9. Liberty Song: On speed due to the barrier last start at Caulfield and I expect they may attempt to take a sit today off the speed instead. Certainly ran a strong race 2nd but found one too good. Respect but has to improve.
10. Sheriff John Stone: Never really given a chance last start for mine at Caulfield. They ran on solidly out front but 3kg claimer decided to hand up and lost any chance in the race. Ran well and comes into this well as sitting top 2 in running today. Most importantly, has been gelded between runs which is a massive gear change. Huge overs.
11. Katsuro: Maiden winner first up this prep and has been top 4 flashing home without ever getting close to a win. Maps for another tough run and is hard to back.
12. Sacred Sham: Four runs this prep but hasn’t been overly impressive at all for mine. Beaten favourite the past two starts at Bendigo and Morphetville in easier grades of races. Terrible barrier and shocked to see the price today.
13. Toorak Cowboy: Maiden winner last prep. Runs at Flemington in the past have been good but not great. Can’t see him measuring up and beating all these at the weights.
14. Speedy Illusion: Huge jump in class today and a massive throw at the stumps. Hard to suggest here.
Comments: Sacred Sham, Katsuro and Ken’s Dream are well under the odds today on my ratings. Sheriff John Stone looks very well in from the barrier with a lack of tempo runners outside of Liberty Song (who i expect to take a sit) and Run Gypsy Run (won’t have to push as hard today from a better barrier) who I expect to set a tempo that is more suitable for SJS today. Run Gypsy Run does certainly appeal but i’m expecting a flatter run here. Blue Tycoon with the right luck in running can feature while Highland Beat and Benz both map in the second half of the field have the ability on their days… especially Benz. I’m happy to stick with Sheriff John Stone who has the right jockey change and will be better suited at Moonee Valley than Caulfield. As happened last start, I won’t be shocked if we get double the price on the day.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 3, 4, 7, 10
Strategy: Sheriff John Stone – 0.75 units Each-Way @ $31/$8.50
