Welcome to The Profits preview for Moonee Valley on 3 February 2017. We return to money valley where the rail goes out 4M and should play fair with a slight bias as always to leading at the right pace. I’m really keen to get on course and to have a look for myself on the night – especially for a few beers and some nice Chinese food with the Chinese New Year celebrations in full swing including the Poon Train being on course. Don’t be shy if you see me, say hi and toot. There are three clear plays on the card tonight with all three runners mapping just off the speed or leading from good barriers on a night where it will be very important to get the right run in transit. As always, I hope you have a good night and stay tuned for the Caulfield form which will be up early also. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 3 – Hard Call – 3.75 units @ $3.00. King’s Command – 1.25 units @ $4.00
Next Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 5 – Dance with Fontein – 1.5 units Each-Way @ $6.50/$2.25
Best Value
Moonee Valley Race 4 – Winspot – 0.5 units Each-Way @ $23/$8.00
Moonee Valley Quaddie
Leg One: 3, 5, 9
Leg Two: 3, 6, 7, 8
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 6, 8
Leg Four: 2, 9, 15
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Moonee Valley Race 1 – 1000m – Ostar International Media Plate
2. Duanette: First run today on the track. Nothing to really go off jump out or trial wise that I could find.
3. From the Clouds: Two runs last prep when horrible on both occasions. Hard to suggest on runs we have seen.
5. Kaiken: Inside barrier and barrier blanket on. Weir runner and well bred.
6. Lovewithouttragedy: No jump outs to go off. Lugging Bit on.
7. Peristrophe: Competitive in a Pakenham trial heading into this and showed enough to suggest she is a decent type. Can run well.
8. Prepare to Win: Poor barrier. Well bred Hayes stable runner.
9. Prosecution: Needs to be a good type to measure up here. Bred well enough.
10. Something Violet: Went up $34 and into $11 so obviously been backed by the stable. Good barrier and good jockey onboard.
Comments: Wide open race with several first starters and the only proven form line has been scratched from the race. I liked the look of Peristrophe’s trial heading in and expect a solid run today.
Confidence 50%
Strategy: Peristrophe E/W
Moonee Valley Race 2 – ACJC Happy New Year Plate
1. Captain Arabia: Lost the rider first up this prep at Sandown. Fairly beaten 1400m two back at Randwick before running 6th in a 1800m maiden very poor at Sandown. Back to 1519m. Maps on speed.
2. Good Timing: Cranbourne 3rd last start on a soft 7. Previous run well beaten 3rd over 1200m. Has the ability to run an okay race.
3. Marching On: Five trials up in Sydney last year. First up today for the Kent stable. Market will tell the story and currently it says to look elsewhere.
4. Bella Missile: Luke Oliver yard runner. Two back 0.1L 2nd over 1200m before being fairly beaten at Werribee last start. Stable are expecting more of the horse today staying at the longer distance and blinkers back on.
5. Grey Kite: Last two starts beaten significantly at Hanging Rock and Great Western. Hard to suggest.
6. Miss Counterfeit: Wez Hunter runner that has been going well enough this prep with a 3rd at Yarra Valley first up before a solid 2nd behind Hussy’s Glow at Werribee last start from midfield throughout. 3kg claim today the key from barrier 3. Maps well.
7. Ubersonic Empress: Will be on speed today. Horrible last start when well beaten behind Handsome Thief. Previous start ran quite well at Kilmore.
8. Mrs Gardenia: Weir runner that is well backed here. Maps very awkwardly from barrier 7 and could get caught 3-wide the trip. Obviously has ability on the two runs shown to date but she has to improve.
Comments: Bella Missile is the standout from the mapping today with blinkers back on and up in distance.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Bella Missile E/W
Moonee Valley Race 3 – 1519m – Carrazzo Consulting Handicap
1. Hard Call: Slow out last start and ran very well for 5th behind Burning Front. Step back in class today and nicely weighted… gets an easy spot on speed with Kiss me Ketut.
2. King’s Command: Ran very well last start in BM-84 grade with Dimino Vitale and Hipparchus and this form line has worked out well. Every chance to push forward and sit 1 out 1 back with a very good ride today and he would be hard to hold out from there.
3. Tuff Host: Terrible form this prep so far. Best over a very strong 1600m and won’t be finding that here today.
4. Coram: Doesn’t win often or out of turn. Several gear changes today is a warning sign. Every chance the last two starts when well beaten. Up to this distance a throw at the stumps and unknowns.
5. Kiss me Ketut: Ran a blinder of a race last start at course over 1600m when put on a solid clip out front and was only claimed late by some very nice types. Will get a nice time out front again today with 53.5kg.
6. See What i Bring: Hasn’t won in a long time. Fairly beaten behind King’s Command last start while the run two back at Sandown wasn’t bad behind Lady Selkirk. Clearly has to improve but gets a nice barrier today.
7. Rising Hope: Adelaide winner last start for the Weir stable in much easier grade after two average runs. Has to improve even at these weights.
8. Statton: Horrible run last start at Pakenham over the 1200m. Back up in distance and well up in class. Hasn’t won for a while and even with Blinkers off has to improve onwards to measure up here.
Comments: Very clear in the way I want to bet here. Hard Call is clearly the horse to beat while the only horse I can see measuring up behind Hard Call is King’s Command. With this the lay of the land, i’m very happy to go hard on Hard Call with a saver bet on King’s Command.
Confidence 95%
Strategy: Hard Call – 3.75 units @ $3.00. King’s Command – 1.25 units @ $4.00
Moonee Valley Race 4 – 1200m – Dangerfield Exley Lawyers Handicap
1. My Sister Lil: At her best, she is clearly a very good type of horse. Two preps back was a close 4th behind Azkadellia, Tuscan Sling and Miss Rose de Lago in G3 company over 1400m. Last prep she only put in two solid runs when 2nd to Nadeem Lass and Vibrant Rouge which is a big step back….. only good runs though were 1400m+ and I can’t have at the distance.
2. Mossbeat: Consistently inconsistent horse that is well in at this grade of race today. Won in BM-78 four runs back over 1400m and ran very well two back at Pakenham when simply too far back wide no cover at times. Never won at this distance a big concern.
3. Shades of Bella: Two starts this prep and both saw her well beaten from out the back. Previous prep won a Mares handicap race but didn’t beat alot on the day… most importantly she was further forward on the day and third up over 1200m. Important barrier today to get a sit just off the leader or 2 back the rail and be close enough.
4. Princess Arrow: Won three in a row before going up to 1400m at Flemington last start and running fairly and bravely to the line when run down late by Deja Blue and New Summer Night. This isn’t harder today at all and while the barrier isn’t great, she should be able to push on to get a spot on speed. Clearly one to beat.
6. Pantheress: Three back run was solid without impressing but two back was a fair fail. Last start led strongly and was grabbed late over the 955m. Up to 1200m isn’t ideal.
7. Stratum Magic: Won three back at Cranbourne before failing at Flemington with a horrible ride that day. Last start at Pakenham led all the way but was only fair to the line. Has to improve on that effort.
8. Winspot: Too far back last start at course and distance behind Ameristralia etc from a wide barrier. Previous start back the rail and hit the line solidly behind Anatola and Sullivan Bay. Maps to get 1 out 1 back to 1 out 2 back from the barrier and looks well suited today.
Comments: This is really a race filled with second rate 1200m horses and there is some value to be had. My Sister Lil and Mossbeat are certainly good horses but they just aren’t that great at the 1200m. Shades of Bella maps to get caught for a run on the rail and Stratum Magic isn’t strong at the 1200m either. Winspot is the horse with potential to improve lengths today from a very strong spot in running and the price is simply wrong.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Winspot – 0.5 units Each-Way @ $23/$8.00
Moonee Valley Race 5 – 955m – Inglis 55 Second Challenge Heat 11
2. Pink Perfection: Awkward barrier today in 6 and will need to try and take a sit. Coming off a lameness issue last start. Previous run behind Dance with Fontein was good for third. Nicely enough weighted today to run well.
3. Nordic Empire: Hasn’t won in a very long time and has been a few lengths off them in easier class. Not for mine at the 955m.
4. Petite’s Reward: Given a gem of a ride last start at course and distance and was fairly beaten on the day. Down in the weights with the claim today… awkward barrier but may have the speed to sit outside the leader.. otherwise it may be 3-wide.
5. Dance with Fontein: Sensational win three back at course and distance beating Petite’s Reward. Two back ran very well behind Crystal Dreamer beating Rich Charm who has won since in city grade. Ignore last start when held up for runs. Back to 955m and from barrier 5 with 2kg claim expect her to sit just off the speed and to be every chance as long as Benny T (one of the most trustworthy apprentices at the moment) gets us out before the runs start.
6. Vinnie Vega: Wagga runner over here for a shot at the big time 1000m back to 955m. 56kg looks solidly in here.. can run a fast time and has a good 2nd behind Corsica Lad who is a flat track bully.
7. Appalachian Annie: For mine, she has had every chance the last two runs with good enough speeds set to suit and just hasn’t been good enough. Lacks that final 50m and while going back to 955m will help, she has to improve.
8. Military: Old mate loves to find hardluck runs. Ran okay again last start but i’m not convinced here.
9. Punt Club: Good run 2nd last start when run down late by a good type in Star Stealer. Won’t find an easy lead today though is a big difference and has to improve onwards again today.
10. Parcel: Low weight here. Well beaten last start but three back win was okay without being impressive. Every chance they could push forward and try and run a crazy speed.
Comments: I really don’t like the map today for Angry Gee who will have to be asked a load of effort today from out the back and wide. Dance with Fontein from barrier 5 gets a perfect position most likely 2 back 1 off the rail and as long as Benny gets Dancey out before the runs come around him, then she will be in the finish coming over the top hard. Punt Club looks the main danger.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg One: 3, 5, 9
Strategy: Dance with Fontein – 1.5 units Each-Way @ $6.50/$2.25
Moonee Valley Race 6 – 1000m – Cathay Pacific Cup
2. Divine Chills: Flemington winner two preps back. Last prep had one good run and then a forgive run over the 1200m. Get the feeling the 1000m is a step too short for her very best here.
3. Little Indian: Will be getting back in the run and coming home hard. Based on the three back run at Flemington she is a horse that can blow this field away, but on the last start run there isn’t a lot you can say. Clearly has the ability and i’d hope they use the barrier to not sit dead last.
5. Quilate: Kent runner. Maiden win over Mount Omei is one to respect and was 2nd to Vandancer in a Pakenham maiden beating Zasorceress in the same maiden. Then went to Sandown and won well from out the back over 1400m. Query the 1000m today being too short.
6. Magnatti: Two starts last prep for two wins in maiden and city class over these distances. Short break and back at it again. Wide barrier but will be allowed to work over to outside the leader and will be hard to get past.
7. Clockwork Orange: Synthetic winner x2 last prep. Defeated a long way the other two runs on turf on wetter surfaces. Obviously has ability on the synthetic runs but this is a big step up back to the 1000m.
8. Gwenneth: Nice enough win two back at Mornington before a very good run from the front at Sandown when run down late by a very nice type called Into Orbit. Maps to be on speed and able to put on a solid tempo.
9. Lardie Lass: Last prep form was well off this level the previous three runs, but 4 back went close behind some average types. Has to have improved.
10. Starvasive: Heavy track 2nd last start at Cranbourne. Previous start 4th behind Little Indian at Flemington. Has to improve.
Comments: Interesting race on the map with some of the best horses out the back in a large field which I don’t think is ideal for the day of racing. Gwenneth looks interesting at the price but Magnatti is clearly the one to beat.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg Two: 3, 6, 7, 8
Strategy: Magnatti to win.
Moonee Valley Race 7 – 3000m – Modscape Handicap
1. Hale Soriano: Ran very well last start at Flemington when beaten by a very nice type on Double bluff over the 2500m. Up to 3000m and looks well suited in this grade. Maps horrible is the only negative.
2. Soviet Courage: Waller runner that failed last start behind Hale Soriano. Previous runs saw a win at Rosehill in a 100k race over 2400m. Well placed and has to be respected. Another that maps poorly from the wide barrier.
3. Valediction: Hurdler that has always been handy not just over the jumps. Over 3000m today will be well suited and maps just off the speed from the barrier. Maps to get the ideal run. big chance with improvement off that first up run which was solid.
4. I Have a Dream: BM-64 grade winner at Murray Bridge last start over 2200m. First time over the distance but obviously bred for it. Not convinced in this grade.
5. Barge and Charge: Morphetville runner. Fairly beaten last start behind I Have a Dream which is a concern. Can run well over the distance.
6. Choux Diva: Ran fairly 6th behind Crocodile Rock last start at Sandown and Sweet Melody has won since out of that race. Up to 3000m is a bit of a query for mine based on that last start run.
7. Black Chevalier: Big query with blinkers off over this distance again well up in grade. Struggle to suggest.
8. Kawabata: Up to 2500m last prep and this prep over 24000m. Two back run was a very strong run while finished off nicely last start also. Will sit much further forward today from the barrier and up in distance will really suit. Big chance.
9. Amortise: Couldn’t win a BM-58 over 220m this prep. Was beaten 3L last start in BM-78 grade on heavy. Clearly will stay and has some ability. Two back run wasn’t bad either.
10. Blue Jangles: Went around at a big pace last start and folded quickly in the straight. Hard to see.
11. Prize: 0-58 winner last start over 2200m coming off a BM-62 grade win at Gold Coast over the similar distance. Have to believe will get the distance but not good enough?
12. Platypus Duck: Well beaten the last several runs and hasn’t been close.. even over 2400m+. No thanks.
Comments: Valediction is a massively stupid price while Kawabata maps perfectly and rates ideally.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 6, 8
Strategy: Back both Kawabata and Valediction to win.
Moonee Valley Race 8 – 1200m – William Hill Handicap
2. Tigidig Tigidig: Old mate won with ease last start at Kilmore coming off a good enough 2nd beating home a nice type in New Summer Knight. Good barrier and good weight with a claim today. Maps perfectly and will be hard to beat.
3. Crystal Pistol: Winner last start at the bool over two okay types. Previously run a maiden two runs back. Going through the grades this prep and has ability. Shocking barrier.
5. Alangejack: Two wins in a row at Stawell and Kerang. Up in grade and class again but winning form is good form. Back to 1200m the only negative.
6. Any Given Bender: BM-58 winner two back at Mornington before 2nd behind Exclusive Heights last start. Has to improve to win this.
8. Time Ford: BM-58 winner at Great Western from on speed which suited that day. Much harder here.
9. Rock ‘n’ rollrock: Solid enough run two back at Sandown. Wide no cover last start at Flemington and ran very well 7th. Back to 1200m now and back in grade. Looks very well in here.
10. Exclusive Heights: Got the win last start at Mornington over Any Given Bender over the 1200m distance. In well at the weights again from a nice barrier.
15. Red’s Sister Rosie: POON TRAIN! Maiden winner at schedule over the 1200m and freshened up for this today. Gets in well at the weights but poor barrier so the Poon Train will need to give her a blinder from the wide barrier.
16. Catechesis: BM-58 winner over 1600m last prep and got up over 2000m. Up against it here.
Comments: Rock’n’rollrock on top pick from Tigidig Tigidig.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 9, 15
Strategy: Back both Rock’n’rollrock and Tigidig Tigidig
