Welcome to The Profits preview for Moonee Valley on 29 September 2017. The rail remains out around the 4m on the day and on speed runners are expected to be slightly favoured throughout the night. It’s good to have night racing back and we can expect some quality races on the cards. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 4 – Super Too – 8 units @ $3.00 to win. Madeenaty – 2 units @ $5.00 to win.
Next Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 6 – Hell or Highwater – 5 units @ $4.50 to win
Moonee Valley Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 4, 6, 9, 12
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 7, 11
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 4, 5, 8, 9, 13
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 3, 4, 6, 9
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Moonee Valley Race 1 – 1200m – Sporting Globe After The Last Plate
1. Kobayashi: Bar plates off. Well back in grade here and Moreira takes the ride from a very positive barrier. Expect to sit 1 out 1 back from here. First up run was good behind Jukebox before failing last start. Expect much better here with plates off.
2. Danger Deal: Morphetville Maiden winner first up this prep. Previous preps 4th in G3 Sires and placed in other handicap type races including MM 2YO Classic. Has ability to measure up and run on well from midfield.
3. Coruscate: Godolphin runner first up today off a good trial win (2nd came out and won already). G3 3rd last prep over 1200m on soft 7 after a G2 2nd. Only fair form on this type of track the issue. Would bolt in here on heavy.
4. Murraqeb: Battled home from last first up and was only fair at best when fancied on the day. Zahra takes the ride and clearly at best is in this.
5. Fully Maxed: Fairly beaten the last two runs in similar grades. Really disappointed last start for mine. Best may still not be good enough.
6. Hecta: Two wins from three starts but both on heavy. Fail was in similar grade to this at Flemington last prep. Has ability but has alot to prove.
7. Experimentation: Won last start by 4L in maiden class at Pakenham before a good trial win between runs last start. Has to be respected for the win. Looks a good type.
8. Mactier: Maiden winner last prep. First up run on heavy well beaten. Has to improve.
9. Over Exposure: Maiden winner by 1.7L last start at Balaklava coming off two solid trials. Looks a very good type for an inform yard.
10. Thee Jenner: First up run at Maiden horrible. Hard to suggest on current form.
Comments: Over Exposure has gone up short in the markets and deserves to be respected, while Experimentation also has to be respected off the Pakenham win. Kobayashi is the proven real deal in the race having recorded a 2YO Handicap and Listed grade win at Caulfield last prep, with the bar plates off, the horse has been well backed and will be very hard to beat from the gun spot in run.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Kobayashi to win
Moonee Valley Race 2 – 1200m – Strathmore Flowers Handicap
1. Demonstrate: Looked the real deal two preps back with several wins in a row and measuring up to handicap grade. Last prep went around 5 times for 0 places. First up here (never won first up from 5 starts) but goes well at this track and distance. If looks good in the yard, has to be considered.
2. Ruettiger: Continues to run very well without winning. Went close in similar grade two back at course and distance before 7th last start up in grade. Has the ability to go well.
3. Well Sprung: Short backup here after poor run last start at Caulfield. Previous run was really good at Moonee Valley and this is a step back in class. Will get back and run on well.
4. Mubakkir: Looked the real deal last prep when racing at Flemington. Won a BM-84 and just missed in a Listed race before going back home and failing on wetter. Gets the dry track and only thing against is 1200m distance.. but still has won at this distance.
5. Sebring Sun: First up today (1 win from 5 first up) – 4th last prep first up in harder. BM-84 winner last prep in a very average 8 horse bendigo race. Obviously has ability to run well but this is a big ask.
6. Tudor: Two runs this prep and been well beaten. Last 4 runs have been outside top 10 in running. Struggle to suggest.
7. Grand Dreamer: Goes well at track and last win was in harder than this but over 2400m. Hard to suggest here.
8. Labuan Star: Weir runner that has won 2 from 3 this prep with a close 3rd in between. Back to dryer today after 3 wet track runs but clearly has the ability on dry from past experience. Won 3 of last 6 and is very much suited here.
9. Orient Line: Goes only okay first up and best seems to come deeper into preps like the two 1400m wins in a row. Tough ask here.
10. Suspense: Not backed first up and struggle to see them backing him here off the first up run.
11. So You Too: Adelaide runner that ran a very fair 2nd to Chamois Road first up. Previous prep won a 3YO handicap. Has to be considered a wining chance from past form.
12. Miles of Krishan: Concussion Plates off. Goes very well first up on previous preps data and now with Hayes stable. Ended last prep in G2 company 3rd behind Amelie’s Star so has to be respected. May just need further but has a VERY good record at distance. Respect.
13. Runsati: Horrible the last run at Mornington but previous run from on speed could measure up.
14. Modern Wonder: Well backed the past two starts but failed to get wins. Has to improve.
Comments: Very open race with the likes of Demonstrate, Ruettiger, Well Sprung that have to be considered at the top. Labuan Star is the standout from the Weir yard while Miles of Krishasn looks the value runner.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Back Labuan Star and Miles of Krishan
Moonee Valley Race 3 – 1200m – Simpson Construction Scarborough Stakes
1. Houtzen: Out sprinted first up from an outside barrier but still ran very well. Will have improved onwards and upwards from there and up to 1200m a big plus here. Went through the line very well last start and hard to beat here.
2. Broadband: Last prep went through the grades to win a Group 1 beating a good type in Time Awaits. First up this prep wide no cover at course but found nothing late. Can iumprove for that run back to this grade.
3. Split Lip: Strong run last start at Flemington behind Fox Swift in the worst part of the track compared to winner. Meech keeps ride but will be going well back.
4. Invincible Star: Waterhouse runner first up after two trials coming off a Magic Millions 6th last prep. 260 days between runs. Did win a G3 the previous prep.
5. Fox Swift: Ran well two back at Sandown behind Blondie held up for runs before going to Flemington last start and getting through and winning with fair authroity. This is harder but she maps to get a good run from midfield.
6. Wanted Diva: Won the past two starts in maiden and then 2YF Handicap grade at course and distance. Spelled and come back stronger today. Wide barrier the only big negative with Moreira on.
7. River Jewel: Another Hayes runner. VGold winner at Swan Hill last prep but no luck last run at Caulfield. Trailled very well heading into this but clearly has to improve still.
8. True Excelsior: Geelong maiden winner first up. Fairly beaten next start behind Tulip and Roomooz before a good run 4th behinmd Fox Swift and Split Lip. Others preferred on form but good place chance.
9. Mintha: Second up today after flying home from the back first up behind Fox Swift and Split Lip. Maps out the back again here.
10. So Far Sokool: Looked a very good type last prep over in NZ and first up over what looked an unsuitable 1000m ran okay enough 4th beaten 3L behind Blondie and Fox Swift with what was a throat issue. Being trained for further.
11. Elle Gagne: Maiden winner on heavy two back before an only fair run leading at Flemington last start behind Fox Swift and others. Will go better at this track but even so as to improve.
Comments: Houtzen is clearly the horse to beat here and will be very hard to hold out from a much better barrier. As long as the horse handles the MV corner, it should be winning. Fox Swift and Split Lip look the main blowout chances.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Houtzen to win.
Moonee Valley Race 4 – 955m – Ladbrokes 55 Second Challenge Heat 1
1. Diamond Oasis: Hasn’t been the same horse the past two preps failing to place in 4 runs. Best is clearly good enough to run well here though.
2. Smart Dart: 61kg after claims. First up today and best runs have been 1200m+. Not convinced this is a 955m horse.
3. Rock ‘n’ Gold: Put in some very solid runs over 1000m+ last prep. First up fairly beaten by Labuan Star on a heavy track. Now a 7YO. Get back run on type needs luck.
4. Super Maxi: Second up today afte r aclose 2nd at Sandown firs tup when claimed late. Previous preps best runs have been the shorter distances but on wetter tracks than this.
5. Tykiato: Won 4 from last 10 but didn’t win last prep. Trialed okay enough heading into this. Sprint distance winner in the past so can run well here.
6. Super Too: Finally showed her true potential last start at Randwick kicking away from on speed in very fast time (55.72 WOW). Good 3 again here and jumps from inside barrier and will be VERY hard to get past. Track record could be in trouble.
7. Petite’s Reward: Nice return first up behind Sullivan Bay and Lyuba before going back in class to win at Sandown. Maps nicely to sit just off them and can run well.
8. Royal Spinner: Hasn’t won since a BM-64 at Colac. Previous runs not up to this.
10. Madeenaty: Hayes runner that is in very good form heading into this. Last prep listed placed. This prep 2nd behind Crown Witness when looked home at Flemington first up before running 4th over 1100m at Rosehill. Plays the part but really doesn’t find the line well. Looks the main testing material to the favourite.
12. Balancing Act: Stanley runner that won 3 in a row before finding a few too good to end the prep. Has ability to run well here but may be a step below.
13. Big Reel: First up today. Big Reel has won 5 from 16 at these distances and goes well first up, but this is a really tough ask from the barrier in this grade.
14. Atunnah Courage: BM-58 winner last start. Struggle to suggest.
15. Captain’s Son: 20 startgs for 1 win. No thanks.
Comments: Two horse race on maximum potential for mine here in Super Too and Madeenaty. Very keen to play Super Too for a big amount with a saver on Madeenaty. If anything else wins, so be it. Prices are well value for these two.
Confidence 95%
Strategy: Super Too – 8 units @ $3.00 to win. Madeenaty – 2 units @ $5.00 to win.
Moonee Valley Race 5 – 2040m – MSC Signs JRA Cup
1. Tavago: Nice enough return at Flemington in G1 first up and has own 2 from 3 in the past second up and 1 from 2 at this distance. G3 winner last prep over 2000m by 3.3L. Looks suited.
2. Jon Snow: Strong return first up from on speed in the Memsie. Failed to fire last start in the Makybe Diva though and that will have brought him on well for this. Looks a top chance at 2040m and beyond but 10 runs 0 wins on a Good track the concern.
3. Ecuador: Always measured up in Group grade the past few preps but never been able to get the win. Well beaten last start behind Winx but did go okay 4th behind Happy Clapper and Tom Melb previously. Up to this distance ideal.
4. Star Exhibit: Flying at home by all reports and should have bolted up last start in the Feehan for mine if the jockey didn’t get dislodged. Blindfold in barriers this time and up to 2040m the ideal distance for this Perth Cup winner. Loves all track conditions. Only issue is how far back the horse will get.
5. Boom Time: Returned very well first up in Handicap class. Last win was over 2400m and didn’t beat any top classes on the day. That being said, measures up well to this grade.
6. Foundation: A load more to give last start when b locked for runs from the back and most likely would have won. Good form race to come out of and clearly has to be considered.
7. Berisha: Fourth up today up to the right distance. Mornington Cup winner from two years back but hasn’t done much since apart from a 3rd in a naturalism. Best would go well here.
8. Grey Lion: 1500m up to 2040m last start and ran very well from on the rails behind the leaders. Will be much fitter for the run today and will go very close coming over from an outside barrier.
9. Gallic Chieftain: Nice enough return over the unsuitable 1700m last start. Never won second up in the past and best runs have always been later into preps and over 2000m+. Can improve and go well here and can win.
10. Etymology: Went around last start as favourite at MV but got too far back and didn’t go through the line well. Up to over the 2000m distance now which is much better suited and had a good trial between runs.
11. Lord Durante: Strong front running ride last start at course and distance saving a load of ground. Has to improve again to win and may find a few too good again in this grade, but can run a bold race.
12. Spanish Reef: Strong run two back at Flemington before a nice run last start at Moonee Valley when wasn’t exactly top of the yard on the day and wasn’t ridden well either. New jockey onboard and new tactics i’d imagine. Up to 2040m again but has run it previously this prep. Won’t lead i’d imagine.
13. Kilmacurragh: Hasn’t won in 5 starts since a Pakenham win. There or there abouts but has to improve.
Comments: This is a very tough race. Foundation looks very well weighted here while Tavago will improve and Star Exhibit has an X factor. Spanish Reef could measure up and so could Etymology while Grey Lion and Gallic Chieftain will improve on their last runs. Wide open race.
Confidence 20%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 4, 6, 9, 12
Strategy: Foundation E/W
Moonee Valley Race 6 – 1600m – Zoustar Stocks Stakes
1. Hell or Highwater: Won three in a row and really stunned us last start with a brilliant start to finish win at Caulfield over 1700m with ease. Up in the weights today but really finds another race he can control on speed and win.
2. Risque: Three runs thios prep and has run last all 3 runs. Has the ability to win this but really can’t see the progression needed.
3. Lizzie L’Amour: Backed to win last start at course and distance when fell out of it very quickly and was found to have Atrial Fibrillation. Maps to get the box seat off the leader and is a G1 winner from the past. Best has clearly been on wetter tracks though the only issue at this distance.
4. Happy Hannah: Returned poorly first up at Flemington when not well liked in betting. Up to 1600m but even with that, it’s hard to suggest.
5. Consommateur: G3 winner last prep over 1900m on a Heavy track. Has won in BM-64 grade in the past over 1500m on dry but this is a big ask back to this based on the G2 6th over 1600m. Not the worst though.
6. Flying Jess: Disappointed at the 1400m last start at Flemington so i’m struggling to see the step up to 1600m here. Has a huge final sprint on her.
7. I Am a Star: Blocked for runs last start at Flemington behind Sword of Light but was never really suited with the speed on. Will get much harder and firmer today and maps for a 1/1 spot. Has to be considered but duel nominated for the Epsom also.
8. Montoya’s Secret: G1 winner last prep on Heavy over 2000m. Went from a BM-64 to that G1 win and did look good over the 1600m. First up run was average at best.
9. Jennifer Lynn: Looked good first up in the Cockram over 1200m then last start only fair late with the slow tempo at Flemington over the 1400m. May be a run short for a top speed 1600m here.
10. Exocet: Covered a load of ground last start in the Let’s Elope first up and will improve for the run and go much better 2nd up from a better barrier. Has to improve even so.
11. Smart As You Think: Showed enough first up over the unsuitable distance before getting a long way back and finding the line solidly in the Let’s Elope. Looks ready to fire here third up.
12. Heavenly Descent: Two runs this prep. Well beaten first up in similar class before finding one too good last start at Geelong on Heavy. Not convinced good enough.
Comments: With I Am a Star expected to go to the Epsom, I only have eyes for one runner here in Hell or Highwater. This horse just keeps going from strength to strength and while the record says the horse is 8th up today, the first three runs were all for fitness so she really is still wanting more of it today with spaced out runs. Lizzie L’Amour looks the only real danger to my eyes.
Confidence 90%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 7, 11
Strategy: Hell or Highwater – 5 units @ $4.50
Moonee Valley Race 7 – 1000m – Charter Keck Cramer Moir Stakes
1. Terravista: G1 Lightning winner last prep first up. Had 3 lead in trials and looks to be going well enough to consider.
2. Malaguerra: Won 5 from 6 first up and only massive negative today is the barrier which will mean he has to try and push over and find cover 3 or 4 wide the trip and cover extra ground. May just be good enough.
3. Voodoo Lad: Strong win first up before only fair run at Flemington 4th in the Bobbie Lewis. Still has more to come. Barrier poor.
4. Rock Magic: Top class WA sprinter who has wins over Vega Magic from the past. Last prep finished off with a 1200m G3 win and 1400m G3 win over Scales of Justice and Disposition. Top class sprinter with top class final 600m sectionals. Clear run final 600m and this horse goes close.
5. Russian Revolution: Brave strong return first up at course and distance when sat on speed and was simply too good for Heatherly and Houtzen. This seems much harder on paper and barrier doesn’t help his chances. Will roll into it well potentially wide still.
6. Derryn: G2 winner over 1200m last prep on a Soft track beating some nice types including Global Glamour. Next three starts beaten by top class horses like Redzel but still ran third in a G1. Best seen on softer tracks for mine.
7. Jungle Edge: Best runs are on wetter tracks. 12 runs 0 wins on good. No.
8. Faatinah: Going much better at home than the odds suggest. Goes best on firm tracks and ran very well 2nd in Oakleigh Plate. Will be on speed from the barrier.
9. Sheidel: Very weak effort first up in The Heath when fell out of it very quickly on speed. Much better than that but back to 1000m today and not sure if that is ideal. Has to have improved onwards to measure up.
10. Viddora: G3 winner last prep before 2nd in the Sangster. Formlines have to be respected but not convinced she is top class.
11. Heatherly: Fairly beaten both starts this prep but ran very well for 2nd and 2nd. Can run well again from the less than positive barrier.
12. Sweet Sherry: G2 winner last prep beating a nice type in Fuhryuk who has come back poorly. Failed in the Goodwood. Not sure top level but obviously improvement to come at 4.
13. She Will Reign: First up off two lead in trials. Best seen on wetter tracks but goes fine on firm. Need to be top class to win from this barrier in this class against these types. First time Victorian way another query and also is the track. Maps nicely enough with cover.
14. Hellbent: Only fair first up and while he did run 2nds in the William Reid int he past, he has never measured up against a field of this quality.
15. Supido: Ran well in a Top class G3 last start when topped perfect in the yard but just not good enough. Not here.
16. Super Cash: G2 winner last prep but was handicapped too well on the day. Failed since the Newmarket and Sangster. Good barrier.
17. Ability: Unlikely to get a run here but 4 runs for 4 wins in a row and has done it on all track conditions. Barrier 4 is ideal for a good spot in running.
Comments: Wide open race and I have to go wide in the betting here. Malaguerra, Rock Magic, Russian Revolution,. Faatinah, Shiedel and She Will Reign are all serious chances here. The ‘value’ runners in the race at Rock Magic and Faatinah.
Confidence 50%
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 4, 5, 8, 9, 13
Strategy: Small bets E/W on Faatinah and Rock Magic.
Moonee Valley Race 8 – 1600m – Johnnie Walker Stutt Stakes
1. The Mission: Pushed around Rosehill last start in the Golden Rose at a crazy speed and paid the price. Up to 1600m here and finds another dry track.
2. Azazel: Good win firs tup this prep and next two starts has run well without winning. Looks a step back in class here. Barrier only issue
3. Showtime: Huge run from on speed last start at Flemington when set a brutal tempo and was one of the few to see it out from on speed. Will be well suited to Moonee Valley today but query on seeing out the final 200m with tempo on again.
4. Masculino: Stole a lead and won well last start. Eshtiraak hasn’t exactly franked the form though. Has to improve.
5. Silent Command: Listed winner last start over 1600m in Adelaide on a soft track. Hasn’t placed on Good tracks yet a concern but looks to have ability.
6. Toga Picta: Not suited last start for mine with the speed set over the 1400m and didn’t find a lot late. Had an issue two back as well with coughing. May not be 100% this prep but if tempo is slow he is a big chance.
7. Salsamor: BM-64 grade 2nd last start. Big step up in class but has ability enough.
8. Mighty Boss: Not the worst last start held up for runs at Flemington behind Royal Symphony. Has to improve but goes well enough.
9. Wassergeist: Good on speed dominated win over 1400m last start at Sandown. Needs to improve onwards and upwards to win this but has the scope.
10. Holy Snow: Maiden winner last start over 1400m but time wasn’t sound and neither was the distance. Not sure.
11. Ouyang Feng: Maiden winner last prep. Two runs this prep well below level needed here.
12. Mighty Quinn: Couldn’t run better than 3rd at Bendigo last start. No thanks.
Comments: What a tough way to end the day. Happy to sit this one out.
Confidence 10%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 3, 4, 6, 9
Strategy: Showtime to win
