Welcome to The Profits preview for Moonee Valley on 28 October 2017. The Cox Plate is finally upon us and it’s the day for Winx to shine and potentially equal the record of Kingston Town in the race as well as pass Black Caviar’s string of G1 wins. We can expect the rail to give out throughout the day as it takes the toll from the previous nights racing. Three clear bets on the card. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 2 – Badajoz – 7 units @ $3.30 to win
Next Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 6 – Big Duke – 5 units @ $2.10 to win
Best Each-Way
Moonee Valley Race 5 – Tahanee – 1.75 units Each-Way @ $12/$3.10
Moonee Valley Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 4, 5
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 6, 8
Quaddie Leg Three: 8
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 3, 9
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Moonee Valley Race 1 – 1000m – Restricted LR 2YOs
1. Grand Challenge: Well beaten on debut but had excuses Wide with cover but wasn’t great at all. Blinkers on but not for me.
2. Jarmanagic: Couldn’t win a Bendigo maiden and takes big step up here. Not fancied.
3. Backfill: First run for stable and good barrier a nice booking. Has been backed but still double figures.
4. Bionics: First starter for Ellerton/Zahra stable and is single figures for the day. McEvoy on.
5. Jawwaal: Hayes 2YO colt. Looks a nice type on breeding and has to be respected.
6. Setsuna: Listed grade 2nd first start up in Sydney and went wide and was a brave run. Can be respected and will lead here from barrier.
7. Faroe: Looks over the odds to be for a horse that trialed well and saw the track and handled it with class. Stable flying and gets these 2YOs right.
8. Five Star Gal: Unseen and not being backed.
9. Miss Blumenthal: Williams takes the ride off a decent Randwick trial. Stallion Chain says a lot about controlling this horse. Good barrier.
10. Seabrook: Unseen Price runner. Has some nice types this year and working well at home.
Comments: Hard race to bet into obviously. Setsuna hard to beat and Faroe looks a big chance.
Confidence 20%
Strategy: Back both Setsuna and Faroe.
Moonee Valley Race 2 – 955m – Strathmore Community Bendigo Bank Handicap
1. Gun Case: Cracker of a run last start at Cranbourne but just found two too good and both are in fine form. Gave them both 5kg on the day. Similar class here but 955m more suited for mine. Track will be suitably suited.
2. Badajoz: Got the breaks at the right times at Caulfield last start and stormed home. Beat some very nice types on the day. Step back to 955m suitable for a final 200m burst like his. Maps well but will need luck in the straight.
3. Sirbible: Dual nominated. First up today and goes very well first up. Obviously suited by 955m races and hard to run down.
4. Rock ‘n’ Gold: Strong win last start at Cranbourne from further forward than previous starts. Hard to get that run today from barrier and up in weight. Has to improve.
5. Diamond Oasis: Showed enough the last two starts to suggest he is going the right way this prep. Can run well but at weights I want to see another run.
6. Gee Gees Jet: Tasmanian invader. Won well first up over 1100m in open handicap grade at Hobart. Times suggest needs to improve.
7. Thelburg: Best seen over much further than this in the past so i’m surprised with the placement. Gets in with a nice weight and does have good speed and ability to keep going out front.
8. Petite’s Reward: Poor last start. Previous win at Sandown was good but a step below this. Improvement needed.
9. Danuki: Dual nominated. Good on speed run last start finding just one too good in Rock ‘n’ Gold. Can improve again with a nice run but will be vulnerable late in the piece even with this weight.
10. Destiny’s Reward: Hard to back on last start run at Bendigo but two back run had some merit.
Comments: Super keen on Badajoz to get the job done here. Has superior closing speed to the rest of this field and as long as the horse finds gaps, I can’t see the horse losing here. Super confident.
Confidence 95%
Strategy: Badajoz – 7 units @ $3.30 to win
Moonee Valley Race 3 – 1200m – Telstra Phonewords Stakes
1. Single Bullet: Comes into this race off a VERY good G2 2nd to Viridine up at Randwicki. Beau Geste has failed since coming out of the race when ran 3rd which is a concern though. Get back but map nicely enough.
2. Ducimus: Always had ability but not been able to beat every horse home. Nice trial leading in and will run well again. Back to a good track could do the trick.
3. Indian Thunder: Went around huge odds in the Blue Sapphire and didn’t get the most clear run throughout but ran well 7th. Needs to improve here.
4. Trekking: Good type of horse. Two lead in runs were solid without going close. Went around $3.80 in G3 last start and had 58 days between runs for this today. Perfect barrier, no excuses.
5. Seized: Maiden 2nd first up at course and distance. Nosed out and had his chances. Big step up here.
6. Eclair Sunshine: Quick backup. Pulled around last start at Caulfield off a slowish tempo out front and got into the bad spot around turn but still ran on nicely just out sprinted. Looking for stronger tempo today. Should get it. Maps nicely from 3.
7. Easy Beast: Two starts two wins this prep. Big step up in grade required here but has some ability.
8. Experimentation: Trialed since last start 2nd to Muraaqeb at course and distance. Needs to go on with it but does look to have the ability to do so.
9. Eptimum: Two starts two wins this prep. Big step up in grade again
10. Sam’s Image: Dual nominated. Hard to see going past all of these today.
11. Surjin: Newcastle form horse.. won at 1400m back down to 1200m.. struggle to suggest here.
Comments: Wide open race. Single Bullet and Trekking are both great types while Eclair Sunshine on the short backup has to be considered with the speed on today. Experimentation is a nice type but under the odds on currently form along with Ducimus also.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Eclair Sunshine E/W
Moonee Valley Race 4 – 1200m – Ladbrokes Crockett Stakes
1. Limestone: Needed the run last start and wasn’t suited by the 1400m. Looked to run on and almost win a G2 two runs back. From wide barrier should settle back and be running on late. Good enough and big odds.
2. Jorda: Beaten 4L last start but Counterplay has run well since. Was a good run. Clearly has the ability to put these away at her best.
3. Roomooz: Strong win at course and distance three back when no where near fitness then failed the last two starts to respond. At best can rock them here.
4. Gee Gee Lanett: Tassy form. Here for a throw at the stumps. Big improvement needed.
5. Pure Emotion: Average last start in CL1 3rd but Astro Castro has come out since and won at Geelong Cup day meeting.
6. Blondie: Good runs three and four back but well below the top level on last two starts.
7. Sanadaat: Like this horse but was very much one paced last start at Caulfield and steps back to 1200m today. Maps perfectly but is she good enough?
8. Demerara: Well backed favourite. Two wins in a row including a strong Rosehill win from on speed. Has to be respected but up in class again.
9. Josephine Sea: Only fair first up at Caulfield and has to improve 3L+ to be in contention here.
10. Tarcoola Spirit: Every chance last start at Mornington and found one too good in much easier. No.
11. She’s Popular: Kilmore maiden winner. Big jump in class here and hard to see on that win.
Comments: Would be keen to take on Demerara at the price. Would be looking for Limestone, Jorda and Roomooz as the chances and can get a decent price for all three.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Back Limestone, Jorda and Roomooz.
Moonee Valley Race 5 – 1600m – Powerflo Solutions Stakes
1. French Emotion: Worked home well at Flemington last start and finds a smaller field here. Maps well from barrier but jockey a negative on this day.
2. Consommateur: Went wide last start and worked home well without going close. Can improve and does on past 2nd up. Respect but has to improve.
3. Lubiton: Likely leader and will be pushing the tempo. 4th in G2 two back and ran nicely 2nd to Invincibella. Can go well.
4. Rocket Commander: Big odds here. Very good run two back but only fair last start at Caulfield. Goes well at track.
5. Invincibella: Last start beat home Invincibella and has won two in a row. Pulled up with Thumps also. Has to be respected.
6. Oregon’s Day: Nice win three back at Caulfield but two back EIPH Mucus and then last start wide no cover but found quite a few too good in a slowly run race. Up to 1600m and still more improvement to come for mine. Maps poorly
7. Tahanee: Fourth up today coming off a Dubai prep. Has improved each run and went very well last start 4th in G3 company. Back to mares grade and maps perfectly 1/1 from barrier 5 and will get the perfect run today. Ready to fire.
8. Savapinski: G3 4th last start at Randwick fairly beaten by a fair way. Has to improve.
9. Think Like a Bird: BM-78 2nd last start. Previous runs beaten also. Struggle to suggest in this grade.
Comments: Keen to be betting here on Tahanee E/W who gets the dream mapping and is a crazy double figure odds price.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Tahanee – 1.75 units Each-Way @ $12/$3.10
Moonee Valley Race 6 – 2500m – McCafe Moonee Valley Gold Cup
1. Big Duke:St Leger winner up at Randwick last start in a field he put away with ease with a good ride. Previous start G1 2nd in Metrop beaten by a horse 4.5kg better weighted. Gets in with 57kg here and is rocking fitness wise. Hard to hold out.
2. Libran: Has been running well without getting close to the Duke the last few runs and not really well weighted today either.
3. Auvray: Nice run last start 2nd behind Big Duke. Looks the main danger. Get back run on type. Query Melbourne way.
4. Cool Chap: Good win two back at Caulfield and makes a big distance jump. Handled distances in the past but this is a big ask again.
5. Who Shot Thebarman: Good 4th in the Metrop two back. Last start well beaten 9th behind Big Duke. Better weighted here and goes well Melb way.. but has to improve.
6. Pentathlon: Went back to NZ after last prep. Ran 4th in Handicap grade back home on soft. Destroyed last start in Bart Cummings. Hard to suggest but could place.
7. Cismontane: Big step up in class again last start in the St Leger and ran 3rd. Fairly beaten and has to improve to win this.
Comments: Big Duke hard to beat here. Will get the right run. Auvray looks the only real threat for mine.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Big Duke – 5 units @ $2.10.
Moonee Valley Race 7 – 1600m – italktravel Fillies Classic
1. I’ll Have a Bit: Coming off a poor run 6th at Flemington, her best on previous preps is better than that. Just not the same this prep.
2. Banish: Good win last start at Cranbourne and is back into form it seems. Rates well for this and can contest. Barrier an issue for a good run.
3. Glam Guru: Nice enough type of horse but has never gone to this level in the past. Take on.
4. Mintha: Strong run first up and then went close behind Houtzen over the 1200m. Ran on well in the Guineas last start at Caulfield. Has been working the house down.
5. Speedway: Last start run over 2000m was fair when held up for runs and probably could have run closer. Back to 1600m ideal but horse still has to improve again.
6. Pageantry: Average at best last start at Flemington and runs prior not great. Best is still below this.
7. Nothin’ On Me: Maiden winner last start. Struggle to suggest on that form line.
8. Touch of Mink: Hasn’t won a race yet and this is another step up in grade. Take on.
9. Royal Disguise: Bairnsdale BM-64 grade 2nd last start. Previous runs well below this grade.
10. Sheezdashing: Maiden winner last start after three runs. Big step up in grade again her and looks outclassed.
11. A Ma Shay: Couldn’t win maidens. Blinkers on.
Comments: Some really average no-hope types here and some progressive ones also. Mintha is a horse in my camp and I have to believe she can take this out. That being said, at the price, it’s hard to bet up early.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 4, 5
Strategy: Mintha E/W
Moonee Valley Race 8 – 1600m – Schweppes Crystal Mile
1. It’s Somewhat: G2 Ajax winner followed by G1 Doncaster and then G2 Hollindale winner last prep. First up looked to need the run and the odds suggested it. Goes very well 2nd up and looks set for this race.
2. Lucky Hussler: Has been going horrible in recent weeks but hit the line solidly last start at Caulfield when held up to the post from 300m out and only lost 3.5L. Has been backed.
3. Burning Front: Nice run last start in the G3 when on speed but was found out late as Ulmann went straight past. Up to 1600m more ideal and goes well at track.
4. Religify: Jump up in class here after having every chance last start at Caulfield. Jockey change positive but needs to improve here.
5. Jungle Edge: Will be on speed pushing the tempo. Step up in distance a query here and has never won on Good.
6. Petrology: Group 1 placed last start at Caulfield when the speed was on. He gets an ideal run here again and can come over the top for another place today.
7. Antonio Giuseppe: 7th last start in the Metrop and steps back to 1600m. 2nd in G3 two back. Goes well enough.
8. Sound Proposition: 5th in the Epsom last start and 2nd as favourite in the G3 at Newcastle the run prior. Going well enough but this is a step up again.
9. Calderon: Smashed when making his run first up at Caulfield. Nice type but didn’t look to be going well enough first up.
10. Wyndspelle: Average last start in the Toorak. Good enough on previous runs.
Comments: Wide open race. It’s Somewhat the top pick while Petrology looks a great E/W bet. Would back both E/W
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 6, 8
Strategy: Back It’s Somewhat and Petrology E/W
Moonee Valley Race 9 – 2040m – Ladbrokes Cox Plate
1. Happy Clapper: First second first second in 4 runs this prep. 2nd last start when given a terrible ride and other 2nd was behind Winx beaten 1.3L in the George Main. Could argue his very best is 1600m but he will be very competitive at the 2000m distance. 5 starts 0 wins over distance says enough though.
2. Gailo Chop: Charmed run on a day when leading and being on speed and on the rails had a length or two bias, still won very well with a mid-race anchor drop. Was set for that race and it feels like this is the next step along the road for them. Always hard for the Weir camp to get their horses to back up within a few weeks and go beyond what they did last start. Will be on speed and will have every chance.
3. Humidor: Blake Shinn gets the ride as Damien Lane gets the boot for his against instructions forward ride in the Caulfield Cup which saw the horse fail to finish off and run a respectable 5th. 2400m back to 2000m is ideal especially on a week backup if the horse is 100% ready to go. Expect them not to be on speed today!
4. Kaspersky: Ran horrible first up in Australia in the Toorak on a firm track. Previous two starts were quite decent with a G3 2nd at Haydock… four back G2 2nd over 1600m leadng. Will get the right tempo to set today but is unknown at distance. Could be running last.
5. Folkswood: Came into the country with a decent enough rating and made mince meat of his opposition in the Cranbourne Cup from a brilliant K MAC Ride. Keeps the spot on this beast. That all being said, they didn’t go overly strong in the Cranbourne Cup and his closing speed was only 1L above benchmark. On what I’ve seen so far, I think Folkswood is horrible unders in this race and can be taken on.
6. Seaburge: Presented much better last start from the yard but still had more to come. Sat out the back and came wide with a barnstorming finish for 5th. Not very well in at the weights today all things considered compared with handicap grade but looks to be a type that will appreciate the 2000m. A place wouldn’t shock.
7. Hardham: Out the back and ran on without making an impression in the Caulfield Cup. Not sure Brideoake is that much of a genius to have the horse running 10th in the CC and then improving back to the 2000m to run a drum.
8. Winx: Knows how to win. Only knock today is the substances that could be lingering and be around during trackwork all week with the stable getting the horse ready for a tilt at the Japan Cup. Horses like Buffering in the past have shown negative reactions so it’s something to consider if taking the shorts.
9. Royal Symphony: Looks the natural type that will get the 2040m today and with 49.5kg gets in very well at the weights. May looks a live chance at the turn if they run the speed along.
Comments: There is a query over just how much speed will be on in the race but if Kaspersky goes along as fast as last start, this will be a true staying test. Winx is obviously the horse to beat with that being the case so we start to look at who can and will run 2nd and or 3rd. I have it down to Gailo Chop, Royal Symphony and Humidor. I’m going to have to take on Happy Clapper here on it’s form at 2000m as well as a very slow lead-in platform run.
Finishing Order: Winx-Gailo Chop-Humidor-Royal Symphony-Happy Clapper-Seaburge-Folkswood-Hardham-Kaspersky
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Three: 8
Strategy: Trifecta: Standout Winx to win. Box 2nd/3rd legs Gailo Chop/Humidor/Royal Symphony. 8/2+3+9/2+3+9
Moonee Valley Race 10 – 2040m – Drummond Golf Vase
1. Cliff’s Edge: Ever since this stable has got this horse right when presenting in the yard he has won, ran a close 2nd and then won well again. Short backup and looks very well suited. The natural leader in the race and will be hard to get past.
2. Sanctioned: Got back to last in the Caulfield Guineas. Ran on well enough. Previous two runs were solid form lines G1 4th and G3 2nd behind Ace High. Tangled form lines suggest he is probably 2L below these.
3. Salsamor: Ran home very well 2nd tow back behind Showtime and was nice in a wide run in the Guineas for 7th. Step up to 2040m looks ideal. Has to be respected here.
4. Pissaro: BM-70 winner two back. Step up last start and just not good enough. Fail to see.
5. Vin de Dance: Big drift last start at Caulfield but ran a very bold race when blocked at critical stages and ran 3rd. Step up required but nice type.
6. Grand Casino: Maiden winner first up and then well beaten last start at Caulfield in the Vin De Dance race. Not for me.
7. The Sledgehammer: Yet to win a race and big step up in grade here. Goes okay.
8. Wolfe Tone: Two runs this prep. Maiden 2nd last start. Not here.
9. Aloisia: G1 1000 Guineas winner in impressive style in a race that rated well. Did use the bias on the day so have to be careful but has the ability to come home well late.
10. Four Koalas: Couldn’t win a maiden and beaten 4.8L in this grade two back. Take on.
Comments: Cliff’s Edge will be very hard to get past again today. Only query is just how the track is playing at this stage of the day for front runners. May very well just be setting up for Salsamor and Aloisia.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 3, 9
Strategy: Cliff’s Edge to win.
