Welcome to The Profits preview for Moonee Valley on 27 October 2017. It’s Manikato Stakes night at the valley where the rail stays in the True and we can expect a very even track surface where tempo decides the races. We can expect a Good 3 track (may start Good 4 but doubt that). A few decent bets on the card and we are looking to spread our unit betting over several races. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 7 – Vega Magic – 5 units @ $2.30 to win.
Next Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 1 – Guardini – 2 units @ $5.5 to win. Extra Zero – 1.85 units @ $6.50 to win.
Best Each-Way
Moonee Valley Race 8 – Hellova Street – 1.5 units Each-Way @ $6.50/$2.38.
Other Bets
Moonee Valley Race 4 – Madeenaty – 2 units @ $4.40 to win.
Moonee Valley Race 3 – Imperator – 2.5 units @ $3.60 to win. Give Us A Go – 1 unit @ $8.00 to win.
Moonee Valley Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 3, 6, 7, 9
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 4, 5, 7
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 3, 9
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 3, 6
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Moonee Valley Race 1 – 2040m – MSC Signs Handicap
1. Guardini: Poor in the Cranbourne Cup coming off a lameness issue the run prior and only had 14 days between runs. Should be over the lameness issues now and has to be respected in this grade of race mapping to get the 1 out 1 back run. Could just be better than all of them.
2. Extra Zero: 13 starts 0 wins at track but gets a very winnable race in terms of only 7 runners so won’t be 12 lengths back out the back! Get back run on.. 11 year old now and wasn’t great last start but previous run over 2000m was good. Can win.
3. Red Alto: Won impressively first up this prep but then hasn’t run very well since in these types of grades. Has to improve onwards again.
4. Lord Durante: Loves the track and always runs well. Will be saving a load of ground but with such a small field it’s hard to see him getting too much advantage on the best runners today. Should be on speed.
5. Dodging Bullets: Ran well last start from on speed at Caulfield and may lead them around today. Big step up in grade again but looks a key chance.
6. Lucques: Change of stable this prep and ran poorly first up. Best seen over further. Never won at distance or track.
7. Darabad: Trials were solid heading into this today and D Oliver takes the ride. Two previous runs this prep were poor but this horse is now 5th up counting the trials.
Comments: Surprised by the price being bet for Dodging Bullets today coming up in class with Lord Durante expected to put pace into the race. Guardini and Extra Zero are both well over the odds and worth backing.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Guardini – 2 units @ $5.5. Extra Zero – 1.85 units @ $6.50
Moonee Valley Race 2 – 1600m – Chandler Macleod Country Cup
1. Master Reset: Ran on well first up over an unsuitable 1400m. Kept on going still. Back to a track that suits and runs very well here and has a great 2nd up record. Goes well at distance.
2. Refulgent: Three runs in this prep and should be getting close to the right fitness levels. Very short backup here if competes.
3. Dylanson: Two runs this prep for 13th and 10th. Back to dryer and up to 1600m. Never seen the track before.
4. Rib Eye: Good win at Moe last time out beating some okay types. Step up in grade but has to be respected.
5. Use the Lot: Ran very well first up in the Tatura Cup for third and took a load of running down. Last two starts well below his best. Best is good enough but hard to trust.
6. Carraig Aonair: Continues to run well without exactly impressing. Stays at 1600m and back to country cup grade, but hasn’t put the performances on the board to impress me enough to back here.
7. Laughing Heir: Geelong winner two back and fairly beaten behind Rib Eye last start. Ran on but has to improve again.
8. Rock of Mahal: Won two of last three and has some decent enough form lines. Got the perfect ride and run last start though and has to go to another level to win this.
9. Hell On Earth: Three runs this prep including last start down in BM-58 grade and just hasn’t been able to get in a win. Best is good enough but hasn’t shown that yet.
10. Rock Away: Good strong win first up at Moonee Valley getting back and running on well. Has to be respected.
11. Unrealistic: Hard to see this one make the progression off the previous 4 runs. Not one I like here.
Comments: Master Reset, Rib Eye and Refulgent are the clear class runners in the race. Would side with Rib Eye on top here from Master Reset.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Back both Rib Eye and Master Reset.
Moonee Valley Race 3 – 1500m – Sweeney Estate Agents Handicap
1. Doctor Care: Nearly a year between runs. First up record no places ever and never won at distance or track.
2. Black Sheep: Too wide last start and was an okay run considering coming off a good Tatura Cup 4th. Weir runner with potential and goes well at this track and maps better today.
3. Orient Line: Last two runs have had a load of merit with the horse showing good closing speed without getting close. Step back in grade here and weighted well from a good barrier with the right jockey onboard in Beau. Can win.
4. Shards: Hayes runner stepping back in grade after a good first up 3rd behind Moss ‘n’ Dale which is solid form lines. Never won at distance but seems to go well. Probably needs further for very best but lead in run rates very well.
5. Fox Hall: Cranbourne winner last start from on speed in nice enough times and beating some okay types. Previous start very good 2nd to Steel Frost that is a strong form line. Can improve onwards again from a positive barrier maps well.
6. Bondeiger: Nice enough trial form heading into this. Never placed at track or distance in the past and never won first up in past. Stable will have the horse ready to fire today and this may just be weak enough class for him. Maps out the back.
7. Give Us a Go: Ignore last start when no cover and still kept going. Almost won a G2 two runs back and steps well back to BM-84 grade where should have won three back. Maps for a very good economical run and will be hard to hold out.
8. Imperator Augustus: Strong run firs tup at Caulfield wide no cover and just kept coming beaten by a very good type in Steel Frost who has won since. Form lines look very strong.
9. Un de Sceaux: Not on last start performance. Have to take on.
10. Weather Channel: Couldn’t place the past three starts and this is harder.
Comments: A few horses stand out here but the two I want to be on are Imperator Augustus who i’m expecting to push on a reasonable tempo slightly above benchmark which will see the horse hard to get past at the weights based on the progression this prep. The value runner is Give Us a Go who maps for a dream run and will be suited perfectly here by the tempo.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Imperator – 2.5 units @ $3.60. Give Us A Go – 1 unit @ $8.00
Moonee Valley Race 4 – 1000m – Mitchelton Wines Handicap
1. Madeenaty: An absolute nightmare of a horse in the yard but continues to run well. Last start perfectly suited at the 955m and ran very well 3rd off the speed. Form has stacked up going forward with two infront running better in harder company. Back to 1000m fine here. Expect them lead but do have the option to snag her back from the gate to sit 2 back 1 off. I’d hope they push her on.. she will be incredibly hard to get past. Big odds.
2. Kronos: Strong first ever win last prep before failing in the Vobis Sires when backed. Gelded since and can be expected to run a strong first up run here.
3. Tabbing: D Oliver takes the ride after two strong 3rds at Morphetville. Has to improve to win.
4. Sam’s Image: A nice enough 2nd last start at Bendigo. Back to 1000m suits and in the past at Flemington ran 0.1L 2nd to Madeenaty and is now 3.5kg better off.
5. Smart Coupe: Two starts two wins last prep. Tongue Tie goes on first time. Has to be respected here.
6. Nature Strip: Solid win as a short priced favourite first up at Mornington. Times were sound.
7. Raspberry Rose: Pakenham maiden winner when not well backed on the day but still won very well by 4L on the soft track. Consider.
8. Bluebrook: First ever run. Market a guide and hasn’t been backed.
9. Magic Town: Horrible only run last prep. 70 days between and trial form average. No.
Comments: Horses will have to run personal bests to get past Madeenaty today if she is ridden correctly and the speed is on. Weight no issue here.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Madeenaty – 2 units @ $4.40 to win.
Moonee Valley Race 5 – 955m – Ladbrokes 55 Second Challenge Heat 3
1. Plateau Gold: Led them around at big odds last start over 955m and held on for third. Negative jockey change on a leader. Bad barrier.
2. Dance With Fontein: Has won first up in past and goes well at course and distance. Has to be respected.
3. Lady Esprit: Doesn’t win out of turn. Huge first up run this prep 3rd to Missrock and Heatherly. Failed the next two starts. Back in grade here and suited at the 955m.
4. Tintagel Rocker: Last prep didn’t look good enough to measure up to this grade but two last runs in easier at Port Lincoln have been impressive. I’d be shocked by a win but can go well.
6. Danuki: Much improved run last start when close 2nd behind Rock ‘n’ Gold over 1000m. Will push forward again today from the barrier. Can go well if gets over.
7. Petite’s Reward: Won two back in easier then failed last start in harder. Back to 0-84 grade and has to run well to measure up here.
8. King’s Bay: Import sprinter from South Africa. Last run was in 2013 so obviously injury issues. May very well need the run and this is a hard distance.
9. The Dynamo: Horrible last three runs. Previous prep ran ratings that would simply win this. Could get in 1/1!
10. Appalachian Annie: Nice trial lead in. Got a win last prep. Goes well first up and loves this track.
11. Essence of Terror: Finished last prep winning at course over similar distance in harder grade. Needs to be at best.
12. Rebel Miss: Oliver onboard. Comes back from Randwick where ran on in a race won by a $100-1 shot. Previous run wide no cover still won. Has abiliy.
13. Mile High: Won two in a row before going down in a close defeat last start to invisibile girl at Morphetville. Big step up again.
14. Destiny’s Reward: Fairly beaten two back by Petite’s reward. Last start poor. Has to improve lengths to win.
Comments: Wide open sprint race. Dance with Fontein and Lady Espirit are both in with chances and so is Danuki and Petite’s Reward… but Thy Dynamo has the ability to blow these away if at peak.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Race One: 2, 3, 6, 7, 9
Strategy: The Dynamo E/W
Moonee Valley Race 6 – 2040m – The Emerson Handicap
1. I’m Feeling Lucky: Continues to parade ‘at top’ but can’t get a win. May not be a 2000m+ type?
2. Pygmy: Two runs this prep and has been well beaten on both occasions. Step up to more suitable distance. Ran 2nd in QLD Oaks and flew home on the day. Only query is first time this track the Melbourne way.
3. Firenze: Average at best last start in easier grade at Cranbourne. Step up required again here.
4. Falika: Knuckled as badly as any horse will at the start last start and still got the win. Massive run and win. Can go on from that.
5. Sebring Dream: More forward than mapped or expected last start and got the dream run and got the win. Violate gone on to run well today in Geelong Cup and won after that. Form stacks up well.
6. Smart As You Think: Every chance last start beaten by a better horse in Falika. Hard to see the turn around against this lot. Take on.
7. Hot Ruby: Good win in the Tatura Cup and ran home well held up for runs at critical stages last start. Up in distance a query but should handle well.
8. Token of Love: Lead them around in much easier last start and won well. Much harder this.
9. Stormy Shore: Couldn’t win at Moe last start and failed to place in the Bairnsdale Cup. Decent enough type.
10. History Repeats: Waterhouse runner. Had every chance at Cranbourne last start. Has to improve but maps as one of two leaders only.
11. Tiffany’s Lass: Form not close enough to what is required to win here. Best over even further you would feel but did run 4th in G1 Oaks last prep over 2000m. Hard to know but Blinkers do go on first time today coming off that poor run last start.
12. Cedar Grande: Two runs this prep for no places. Has been running okay enough but needs the distance. Step up today looks better suited but not sure she is top level.
13. Star Patriot: First emergency. Good 2nd to Rock Away last start but outclassed too easily. He has gone to easier than this.
Comments: Very tricky race with different form lines coming. Have to believe Falika is good enough to improve again but is under the odds. Sebring Dream has to be respected also. The two i’d be backing at the value if playing here would be Pygmy and Hot Ruby.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 4, 5, 7
Strategy: Back Pygmy and Hot Ruby.
Moonee Valley Race 7 – 1200m – Ladbrokes Manikato Stakes
1. Chautauqua: Obviously maps out the back. 4 runs at this track for 2 wins and 0 places… so the horse either wins or doesn’t go close. Three runs this prep and failed to place on all three occasions. Steps back from The Everest where he just had no chance on the day and steps to a track where he isn’t exactly favoured either. may need to be ridden more aggressively.
2. Vega Magic: Maps to lead on early time ratings with only Malaguerra showing enough speed to match Vega Magic early. Killer win first up over Brave Smashed before dominating the Memsie with a huge turn of foot from the 600m that only the likes of Chautauqua would have the chance of running down. Given a horrible ride last start which cost the horse the race with more to give on the line. Will be first around the turn and just need to fight out the final 200m and be winning this.
3. Malaguerra: Got back from the wide gate first up in the Moir and was a respectable run 7th when made late ground. Best runs in the past have been over 1200m+ and as he gets older he may just need that additional run to get him ready. Ran as fast as he could late last start so is looking for more speed on early here so expect him to push forward and make Vega Magic work for it.
4. Hey Doc: Led them around 13L above benchmark last start at Flemington so i’d assume they will take similar tactics here. Over 1200m three runs back did run home 32.87 so has to be respected, but hard to see him in this grade at the weights stepping up again.
5. Rock Magic: Got back and ran on in the worst part of the track to just miss last start at Caulfield behind Super Cash. Back up to 1200m here where more suited. Gets back and runs on, no way they push forward today. Has the ability if good enough.
6. Voodoo Lad: First up win at Flemington looked elite in the times he ran home with a solid early pace and a huge sprint late 22.52 last 400m. Been poor the last two runs compared but maps better with the suck run from B1 today.
7. Speith: Almost impossible to back here first time at track, Nash getting the ride and on a horse that just hasn’t got a win at the top grade yet. Logic says no, but price is reasonable.
8. English: Got back and ran on last start in the Everest. Found more the previous starts coming home in much faster times late so wasn’t as good on the day. Has to be respected is a top line G1 runner and she maps well today.
9. In Her Time: Perfect on speed map behind the leaders and could even get 1 out 1 back spot. Bar Plates on front takes lengths out of the horse but she still keeps winning. Peak run last start was off a good tempo while she doesn’t have the electric turn of foot to match Vega magic for mine if he gets some cheaper than expected sectionals out front. Has to be respected.
10. Viddora: Flew home last start in a race that suited ridden for luck. Up to 1200m and has to improve again.
11. Super Cash: Nice horse fresh and has run good numbers first up and in the past. Will need to show the speeds shown four runs back at Caulfield when finished off in 22.04 from on speed. Barrier hurts chances of a good spot on speed.
Comments: Open and closed book race for me. I’m very keen on Vega Magic to get the job done here. I wouldn’t be surprised if the big boys lay the horse out from the current quote either based on data. Main dangers look to be Malaguerra, Rock Magic, In Her Time and English.
Confidence 90%
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 3, 9
Strategy: Vega Magic – 5 units @ $2.30.
Moonee Valley Race 8 – 1200m – Baisi Fashion Group Handicap
1. Hellova Street: Strong run first up in a quality handicap and will be better for the run. Gave the winners 5kg. Giving a few runners weight again here but much better suited.
2. Bassett: Short backup on the 4th last week at Caulfield. Fairly beaten but consistently improving this prep. Can run well.
3. Miss Gunpowder: Good run 4th in the G3 at Caulfield two weeks back. Stuck on solid and Cool Passion has backed up the race form. Has to improve again here but respect. Barrier poor.
4. Sadaqa: Not the worst run from out back first up over 1200m and stays at distance strangely. D Oliver onboard and will try push forward for a 1/1 spot from the barrier.
5. Sirbible: Goes very well first up never missing a place from 5 starts. Won just 1 of last 10 races but continues to run well especially at this track. 1200m may not be his very best distance. Will sit outside leader.
6. Demonstrate: First up run was very solid through the mine and almost a month between runs here. Good barrier but not sure they will use the horse to get any spot.
7. Ruettiger: Continues to run well but just miss over and over. Well weighted compared to two back today and didn’t get runs last start.
8. Smart Dart: Average run first up at Cranbourne and had more than a month between runs… never won 2nd up in past though a concern and stays in this grade.
9. Well Sprung: Three runs this prep and hasn’t gone close on any occasion. Goes okay at track but not on the last few runs for mine.
10. Dan Zephyr: New colours? First up run well beaten no excuses disappointing. Up to 1200m better suited but best probably over further? Not convinced.
11. Onerous: First up today with a short break in the paddock. Last prep was going well at Caulfield and city class tracks but failed to score. Respect quality of horse here from barrier maps nicely.
12. Suspense: Had his chances last start just not good enough. Big improvement off last start. Has to improve again up in class again. Nice map.
13. Star Fortune: Struggle to suggest on current form.
Comments: Keen to see Hellova Street put in additional improvement today in a race i’m expecting the horse to be able to lead with no dramas from the gate. Miss Gunpowder unlikely to back up but does look a main danger on that last start run while a horse like Demonstrate could go close with speed in the race.
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 3, 6
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Hellova Street – 1.5 units Each-Way @ $6.50/$2.38
