Welcome to The Profits preview for Moonee Valley on 27 January 2017. We back up after a solid day of results at Caulfield yesterday with our bet of the day saluting. This looks a tricky meeting on paper with quite a few first starters and mixed form lines to build around. Expecting horses from midfield or closer to have every chance while it may be hard for swoopers to make up ground again in the sprint races. As always I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 5 – 3.5 units – Dance with Fontein @ $3.70
Next Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 1 – Big John Cannon – 2 units @ $2.45
Best Value
Moonee Valley Race 2 – Balle D’Or – 1.5 units Each-Way @ $13/$3.60
Moonee Valley Quaddie
Leg One: 1, 2, 4
Leg Two: 5, 6, 9, 11, 12
Leg Three: 1, 3, 7
Leg Four: 2, 3, 7, 9, 12, 14
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Moonee Valley Race 1 – 1200m – William Hill Plate
1. Handsome Thief: Unseen runner for Weir that is now a 4YO suggesting it has taken a while for this horse to mature. On breeding looks to be wanting a bit further to find his best… but it’s rare to find Weir start a runner in the town for a first run.
2. Big John Cannon: Resumes after a strong first prep where he ran 1.9L 3rd in Group 3 class behind Archives. Will be one to beat here.
3. Limestone Cowboy: Three runs this prep and only got as close as 1.2L. Hard to have on the past few runs.
5. One Eye Watching: 7 runs for 0 places. No.
6. Northwood Thunder: Well beaten in 3 of 4 runs and that close run was first up at Terang over 1200m. Has to improve.
7. Ubersonic Empress: 9 runs for 3 places. Goes okay over this distance… got up to 2000m last prep. First up was not the worst run 2nd you will ever see. has some ability but has to improve.
8. Layne’s Star: 1200m 2nd at Geelong coming off a 2nd at Colac and third at Geelong. Continues to run well without winning.
9. My Aim is True: Hayes runner that has had 4 runs yet failed to get closer than third. Last two starts at Mornington have been good in fairly easy maiden grade. One of the chances.
Comments: This is a really low grade race with Big John Cannon, My Aim is True and the first starter Handsome Thief the only real chances in the race. Rail back in the true giving the swoopers every chance and Big John Cannon will be hard to hold out
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Big John Cannon – 2 units @ $2.45
Moonee Valley Race 2 – 1000m – Sweeney Estate Agents Plate
1. Coroglen: Only run last prep failed to fire at Flemington when wasn’t well fancied in the race. Jumped out well enough at Flemington a week ago.
3. Royal Phoenix: Jumped out at Flemington on the 13th with Overshare and ran nicely on that day in what was only a fair time run. Was down to jump out last week but didn’t turn up is a query for mine missing work heading into this. Bred for further is a big query.
4. Southern Turf: Went around 100-1 first up and ran a respectable 3L 3rd to Jukebox who is fancied in betting in the Blue Diamond. Obviously has to improve here again.
5. Tata Madiba: Unplaced in a barrier trial. Stable believe he is looking for further than the 1000m. Looks to need the run for mine.
6. Balle D’or: Only run last prep went around a $20 shot and was very poor on the day beaten significantly. Has been backed $26 into $13 since opening in the markets and there has been a very good push from those that watch the horses in training that the horse is more than good enough to measure up here. Dodged the stablemate Property at Caulfield yesterday for a very good reason. Well over the correct odds in this grade of race.
7. Blondie: Nice enough jump out at Caulfield leading throughout. D Oliver onboard and will need to jump well to get the lead with the short jump to the turn here. Looks to have ability.
8. Byerley Diva: Jumped poorly in the jump out at Caulfield and sat out the back. Got going half way through the race and was pushed on to hold 4th. Not convinced.
9. La Chica Rosa: Average at best lead in jump out and open I just want to be avoiding here.
10. Zarpoya: One run last prep and managed a place, beaten two lengths on the day. Skipped the preview yesterday to run in this race which looks a fair bit easier to my eye. Good barrier will have every chance.
Comments: There looks to be a three main chances here in Blondie, Zarpoya and Balle D’Or. At the prices, Balle D’Or is a clear standout.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Balle D’Or – 1.5 units Each-Way @ $13/$3.60
Moonee Valley Race 3 – 1000m – Simpson Construction Handicap
1. Angry Gee: Bit of an unlucky run two back at course and distance before going up in distance and running fairly well 4th. Back in class and well up in weights here… finds a very winnable race.
2. Star Stealer: 1200m 5L heavy track winner three runs back in last prep. Goes well first up but never placed at this track and best runs have been in easier company. Clearly a horse with ability and if he is well backed it’s a big indicator into how he will run today.
3. Johnny Roo Boy: Won first up last prep in slightly easier grade on a soft track. Never won from 3 attempts here in the past and as a 6YO isn’t getting any better.
4. A Private Party: 6 runs for only 1 place at this track but that was a 955m 2nd behind Miss Vista. Three back run in BM-64 grade 2nd suggests this is a lot harder today.
5. Military: Been going well the past two starts at Cranbourne and Bairnsdale and finds himself well in at the weights. Has the ability.
6. Good Offa: Won four back at Pakenham. First up run this prep lost a plate and didn’t really run very well at all. Expect better here but hard to have large confidence.
7. Manihi Mischief: 4-wide the trip last start at course and distance and simply a forgive run. Two back run 2nd to Core Breach when lost a plate was very good. Oliver keeps the ride and better barrier today. Big chance.
8. Definia: First up won well at Donald on a heavy track. Last two starts well beaten at course and distance suggests he needs the heavens to open.
9. Punt Club: BM-70 grade winner last prep. Last two starts have been quite good at Morphetville and Sandown when beaten by nice horses.
Comments: Tough race. Angry Gee and Manihi Mischief looks the two to clearly beat and that odds have it right.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Manihi Mischief
Moonee Valley Race 4 – 1600m – Melbourne Signage Concepts Handicap
1. Fudged: Ran well without getting close last start behind Oak Door at Flemington and the step back up to 1600m will be ideal today. Top weight but well in.
2. Tres: 3.3L maiden win last start at Cranbourne and the step up to 1600m will obviously be ideal based on that run. Huge turn around in form last start makes you question if the horse will actually continue improving here.
3. Federosa: Maiden winner over in Adelaide before being fairly defeated last start over the 1400m when 2.2L 6th. Has to improve.
4. Miss Bluebelle: Maiden winner at big odds last start. Up to 1600m should suit. Has some ability but obviously has to improve.
5. Miss Danni: Maiden winner heading into this. Slow time over the 1600m ran. Hard to love.
6. Shewearsthepants: Maiden winner on a soft track and won well over the 1600m. Weir runner with ability.
7. Zero Patience: Won well in maiden grade two back then 6th in BM-58. Obviously has to find much more here.
8. Millie the Missile: Couldn’t win maidens heading into this.
9. Parthesia: Maiden winner over further. Struggled to fire the past two starts.
Comments: Hard to look past Fudged. Well enough in at the weights and the barrier is the only negative.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Fudged to win.
Moonee Valley Race 5 – 955m – Inglis 55 Second Challenge Heat 10
1. Pink Perfection: Ran a nice race 3rd two runs back at Moonee Valley behind Dance with Fontein. Much better in at the weights today. Has to improve again and has to have recovered from the poor run last start.
2. Petite’s Reward: Four runs this prep and has failed to fire. Best run was 1L 2nd to Dance with Fontein at course and distance three runs back. Better weighted here but has to improve again.
4. Dance with Fontein: Maps perfectly to sit just off the leaders today after winning well three runs back at course and distance. Run after was top quality second to Crystal Dreamer and was blocked for runs at critical stages last start at Caulfield. Respect and trust here.
5. Pantheress: Three runs this prep but has been beaten 2.2L or more on each occasion. Up in class and has to improve significantly to beat the lot today from a poor barrier.
6. Weather the Storm: Will need a good ride to not get caught 3-wide today. Ran wide last start at Mornington and was very poor. The two back run was respectable. Has some ability.
7. Deconi: Heavy track winner at Cranbourne last start. Obviously the previous prep measured up in 3YO grade but those were not the highest quality of races. Has to improve onwards again today here.
9. Sheer Force: Couldn’t place in CL1 grade last start. Couldn’t recommend to place.
Comments: Very keen on Dance with Fontein at the prices. The market has this wrong and is hugely under-estimating the quality of this horse in comparison to the others in the race. Dance with Fontein will get an ideal run most likely 1 out 1 back and be in a great spot to finish over the top in the final 200m.
Confidence 90%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 4
Strategy: 3.5 units – Dance with Fontein @ $3.70
Moonee Valley Race 6 – 2040m – 1Print Tour of Victoria Distance Series Heat 4
1. I’ll’ava’alf: Jumper that needs the run here. Hard to have.
2. Crime Fighter: Hasn’t won in 2 years. Hasn’t gone close on the past two preps.
4. Big Knight: CL1 winner over 1400m. Not the worst run last start over 1600m but straight up to 2040m today is a big ask.
5. Rakti Roulette: Ran very well two back at Geelong behind Hardern before failing last start at Sandown when wide off a strong tempo. Respect here from a better barrier.
6. On Wings: Consistent type that should have no troubles at the distance today. The lead in runs have been good without winning. Finds the right type of race today.
7. Jimmy Hoffa: Grafton winner four back. Been racing up north in Queensland. On what i’ve seen the past few runs he is well short of a showing here.
8. Lucente: Three runs this prep for 9th 9th and 9th. Hard to suggest.
9. Zilbiyr: Irish import. Only won a maiden over there and it took quite a few runs. Two runs in this prep and both have been reasonable. Would need to be showing some better form here.
10. Get Ya Kicks: BM-64 winner two back in nice enough time. Up to 2000m again where should be well suited.
11. Richard of Yorke: Waller runner that hasn’t been able to go close much recently. Import from England. Should have no troubles at the distance.
12. Star Zone: Country win in BM-60 grade last start. Thought the run two back at Cranbourne in similar grade was more than good enough to measure up here. Back in form. Respect.
13. Thespinis: BM-60 2nd last start over 1950m in Adelaide. Has ability but never won at this class from 7 starts previously. Obviously has to find lengths.
Comments: Wide open race. Star Zone has the profile of a winner here and $16 available gives you a good shot on the E/W. Obviously a wide open race with this many runners and lack of quality.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg Two: 5, 6, 9, 11, 12
Strategy: Star Zone E/W
Moonee Valley Race 7 – 1200m – Browns Sawdust & Shavings Australia Stakes
1. Black Heart Bart: Loves a challenge and gets it here today first up over the 1200m. Group 1 winner over the 1200m all the way up to 1800m. Obviously maps well and hard to beat.
2. Turn Me Loose: Needs further.
3. Malaguerra: G1 winner the distance. Does prefer longer straights is the only issue and improves as he goes deeper into preps.
4. Mourinho: Win wouldn’t be a total shock over this distance but as a rising 9YO it is very unlikely. His best is over further.
5. Palentino: Gets better as he goes up in the distances and put a gap on Black Heart Bart over 1600m last prep at Flemington. Needs further.
6. It Is Written: Going well this prep but well out classed at equal weights here.
7. Chetwood: Looks well in here today as a 1200-1400m horse. Been running very well back home and no one has missed him today. Very well backed and the main danger to the favourite.
8. Sirbible: Will be jumping on speed and trying to run them ragged. Not as good over this distance for mine though. Will give them a sight and make it a true test.
10. Peacock: 3YO-LR winner over 1400m last prep at Caulfield on a day they ran it along slowly out front. Has ability but others preferred.
Comments: Three clear standouts in Black Heart Bart, Malaguerra and Chetwood. This is a race which is all about getting the right value for your runner. I have Black Heart Bart over the odds and expect the price may drift.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 3, 7
Strategy: Black Heart Bart to win.
Moonee Valley Race 8 – 1200m – The Slade Bloodstock Handicap
1. Just Got Lucky: Will sit just off the speed today. Beaten favourite last start over distance in this class at Terang failing to place. At his best he is a chance.
2. Moral Outrage: Strong winner last start at Pakenham in this class over this distance controlling the race from out the front. Will be on speed again here but won’t get as many favours. Clearly if the right speed on out front can win.
3. See Me Fly: Horror barrier and will need a bit of luck to not get caught 3-wide if trying to get a spot midfield in this race today. Two very solid wins in a row before a big fail last start at Sandown. Better than that and forgivable run. Big chance.
4. Artie Fred: Ran quite well last start at Cranbourne from the back and is one to watch again here over the 1200m. From barrier 2 should be able to settle midfield.
5. Sir Mask: Hasn’t won in 15 runs and wasn’t exactly knocking on the door last prep either. First up here at a track where he runs well but hasn’t won at. Hard to suggest in such a big field first up.
6. As Bad As Tyson: Bm-64 grade winner last start at Kilmore in what looked a good win to the eye. Poor barrier the negative.
7. Broadway and First: 1200m winner at the bool last start. Consistently running well this prep without producing anything special. Awkward barrier. Surprised by the price.
8. Oerter: Needs further.
9. Gangnam Style: Ignore last start. Based on first up run this prep he is clearly the horse to beat in the race. Only thing that gets him beat is the horror barrier. Needs to be ridden midfield at worst today.
11. Sasayuri: Well beaten the past two starts in BM-70 and CL3 class. Has to improve. Has some ability.
12. Theanswermyfriend: First up. Won last prep over 1600m and 1400m. Did run well as a 2YO over 1000m. Win wouldn’t shock at all. Has the ability.
14. Artie’s Party: CL1 winner at Geelong over 1100m. Previous prep has run well enough over 1200m. Has to improve but has the ability and has to be respected.
Comments: Wide open race to finish the last race of the day. Gangnam Style is the value in the race while TheAnswerMyFriend looks more than good enough to win this on past runs.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 3, 7, 9, 12, 14
Strategy: Back both TheAnswerMyFriend and Gangnam Style.
