Welcome to The Profits preview from for Moonee Valley 26 August 2017. We finally return to Moonee Valley where the rail comes back to the True and we can expect the track to be a Good surface that will play fair for those coming from anywhere on the track. Winds are expected to have little affect on the day so we can expect competitive racing. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 5 – Second Bullet – 5 units @ $4.80 to win
Next Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 8 – Duke of Brunswick – 3.5 units @ $3.70 to win
Best Value
Moonee Valley Race 7 – Missrock – 1 unit Each-Way @ $7.50/$2.50
Moonee Valley Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 5, 6, 11
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 4, 10, 11
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 3, 4, 5, 7
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 7, 8, 10, 12
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Moonee Valley Race 1 – 2500m – McMahon’s Dairy Handicap
1. Loresho: Looked to be getting close to a win this prep and then finally flew home last start in a similar grade of race. Maps for a perfect run today and will run well.
3. Swacadelic: Back up to a more appropriate distance today and goes better over even further. Really need to see him have the run at 2500m today.
4. Charlevoix: Should have gone close last start in the Vobis Gold Stayers when held up for runs. Horse is going very well and ran nice the previous start behind Super Haze off a strong tempo.
5. Super Haze: Average at best last start off a slower than expected tempo and is looking for much stronger run evenly run race today. Best is limited for mine but gets the race to suit today.
7. Crafty Cruiser: Looked good last start returning to form at Flemington with a good run 3rd. No chance against this lot today though for the win.
8. Cismontane: Nosed out with top weight last start at Sandown when led them around at a even tempo. Well down in weights today and will push them along again here first time at Moonee Valley. Step up in class.
9. Percy Henry: Hard to suggest even a place for this 0-58 winner who couldn’t place last start in BM-58.
10. Vysotsky: Looks well outclassed after 10th in BM-58 last start over 2400m.
Comments: A lot of class has gone out of this race and having fully re-looked at it, Super Haze is the ultimate value in the race with the pace expected to be setup perfectly out front for this type of horse. Loresho is the main danger.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Super Haze to win. Also back Loresho.
Moonee Valley Race 2 – 1200m – Dr Sheahan Plate
2. Hear the Chant: First up Hayes stable horse that won a good 3YO sprint at Flemington before failing the next two starts. Goes well first up and has to be respected. Issue is hasn’t ever performed significantly well at track.
3. Pure Pride: Was backed in to win a few races last prep but never measured up to get the win. 4th in a G3 over 1600m.. so hard to see the first up 1200m win today.
4. Merriest: Good strong lead in trial win and she is ready to fire. 3YO Handicap winner at Caulfield when well backed on the day and should be suited on speed here. G2 4th last prep showed the horse has ability.
5. War Baby: First run in Victoria after an okay prep up in QLD over much further. Struggle to suggest at distance coming off a 2350m run.
6. Divine Chills: Good win two back at Sandown and then every chance last start just missed at Caulfield beating home Sullivan Bay. Clearly flying and this is a step back in grade. Well in at weights and maps well from inside barrier.
7. Give Us a Go: Nice trial win. Last two starts at Flemington in harder company ran well without being a threat. Back in grade and could figure.
8. Chiavari: Big step up in grade first up this prep over the 1200m. Trial heading into this was solid enough. Need to improve to a new level today though.
9. Typhoon Monaco: Won 3 of her last 5 and has always been very well placed in the past. Last prep finished off over 1600m with a Heavy 8 win at Flemington in similar grade. Distance may just be too short first up though.
10. Fragonard: Godolphin runner that is first up today and 2/2 in the past first up. Ended last prep with a good run 2nd over 1400m in similar grade. Would need to have improved since.
11. Lovani: Big win last start at Flemington over the 1600m. Back to 1200m today a concern distance wise but the horse is game and a strong front runner.
12. O’rachael: Disappointing last start at Flemington coming off a good run at Caulfield the run prior. Needs to take the step up here.
13. Wasabi: Only fair form lines from this Keys yard runner. Hard to suggest.
Comments: Several good types going around in this race today and that gives us good prices to be into. I have to go with the value runners in Divine Chills and Give Us a Go at the odds. Merriest is clearly the one to beat but is rated closer to $5.50.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Back Divine Chills and Give Us a Go.
Moonee Valley Race 3 – 1200m – Johnnie Walker Plate
1. Tulip: A “second string” Hayes runner that very well may just be best kept to sprint distances and loves the wet surfaces. 5th in the Sires and 3rd in the Slipper, G3 winner over 1200m in the past and looks well suited here.
3. Limestone: Looked the goods last prep when beating Tulip and then going down to Catchy by 0.1L in the Prelude. Difficult barrier today but if on in the yard i’d be keen to on her running a brilliant race.
4. Roomooz: Morphetville winner last prep beating some average types before 4th in the Prelude and 8th in the Diamond. Obviously has to have improved.
5. Garrard: 2nd to Houtzen two preps back and last prep got a maiden win before 2nd in G3 behind Shoals and beating home Ploverset. Nice type but Concussion plates a big worry.
6. Cherief’s Choice: Beaten in a CL1 last start at Sale. No thanks.
7. True Excelsior: Maiden winner at Geelong first up and didn’t beat a lot on the day. Has to improve.
Comments: Tulip and Limestone are clearly the two best horses in this race and the ones to beat. Both map awkwardly for wide runs on the day. Tulip is wound up for this today based on what we have seen from the stable and Limestone will be ready to fire also.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Back Tulip. Saver bet Limestone.
Moonee Valley Race 4 – 1600m – Ranvet Handicap
1. Sly Romance: Moonee Valley winner but over 3000m. Clearly needs further than this in this grade of race being prepared for further, but did win over this distance last prep in this grade, so a win really shouldn’t be a total shock?
2. Patch Adams: Two runs this prep and well beaten on both occasions. Back in grade here but still has to improve at the distance.
3. Instrumentalist: 9YO now and has been pushed around between yards not achieving much up north. Hard to suggest.
5. Data Point: Always runs well but seems to find a few too good on the day. Well back in grade last start but help up for runs and good the previous stats. Freshened up for this. Goes well enough at track.
6. Manalapan: Last win was over 2600m. Didn’t exactly present over these distances last prep. Not for mine… but is back in class at least.
7. Radical: Looked well in the yard and made some nice ground from the back but no match for Jaminzah. Hard to suggest even back to this track.
8. Rezak: Huge ask today off tow very poor runs. No thanks.
9. Cosmic Lights: Wouldn’t be surprised to see this horse still had a back issue. Caution backing and still want to take the horse on after they still ran it 12 days ago.
11. Lord Tennyson: Not the worst run last start at Flemington when out the back and ran on solidly. Has to improve up to 1600m today but does have ability.
12. Sin to Win: Proved to be a good 1600m horse back in NZ and first up ran a blinder over the 1400m at Flemington. Looks the type that will be able to sit on speed from a good barrier today and put them away in the straight.
13. Can’t Refuse: Hasn’t gone close all prep and can’t see that changing here.
14. Spunlago: Got far back and had to take inside runs last start at Flemington when made good ground late to just miss at the line. Very good with the weight and from barrier 6 could sit further forward today. Respect.
15. Tavi Bay: Didn’t show a lot at all first up and hard to suggest figuring here.
16. Gouldian: QLD runner back down to Victoria. Off last prep runs the horse is a decent type but clearly needs to improve 2200m back to 1600m.
19. Rebellious Lord: Huge run just missed last start at Flemington grabbed late by Jaminzah. Awkward barrier but will sit on speed and be very hard to hold out.
Comments: One of the toughest races of the day. Rebellious Lord and Sin to Win look good types from on speed while the swoopers Spunlago and Data Point are in fine form as well.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Back Rebellious Lord and Spun Lago
Moonee Valley Race 5 – 2040m – MSC Signs Handicap
1. Almandin: Melbourne Cup winner. Took a few runs last prep to come into a bit of form and clearly best runs were 2400m+.
2. Killarney Kid: Last start ran fairly as false favourite behind Aloft and a few others over 2000m. It was a good lead in run coming off the lameness issue the run prior and has won at this track in the past.
3. Foundation: Very average run first up over 1600m when looked okay in the yard but clearly wanting further. Steps up to 2000m but off the run I can’t see the improvement required until gets up over 2400m.
4. Second Bullet: Out the back and run on brilliantly on a day when it really wasn’t suited to get that far back at Flemington last start. Certainly a horse that goes best fresh but I wouldn’t be shocked to see him run as well today back at Moonee Valley on a track that should suit those making long sustained runs. Expect they push forward today.
5. Hans Holbein: Never won first up in the past and always shown his very very best at 2400m+ with 2000m always just being a little too sharp. I have to take on today.
6. Pacodali: Two wins in a row for the Weir yard but for mine this horse has not had to show a lot and has been gifted the last two wins due to race tempos. I’m not convinced he is the real deal.
7. Time to Test: Solid horse with a good turn of foot when it matters. Goes well first up but expect to be fit only 98 days between runs.. won over 2000m and 2500m last prep. This is a big step up.
8. Ruling Dynasty: Strange placement for this ex-cummings horse. Average at best over 1600m first up. Hard to see a run in this grade.
9. Rose of Virginia: Very strong run second up this prep behind Gallic Chieftain… but next two starts only fair. Wants them to run along again today and goes well here.
10. Bling Dynasty:Disappointing run last start at Flemington when well beaten 6th. Big step up in class today.
Comments: Very keen to take on Pacodali today and believe the horse is a true false favourite on the card. Hans Holbein needs further and the run on previous form and so does Almandin. Killarney Kid could blow us away but so be it. I just have to go with Second Bullet at the price on offer.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Second Bullet – 5 units @ $4.80
Moonee Valley Race 6 – 1200m – Essendon Nissan McKenzie Stakes
1. Azazel: Very good win first up when not fully wound up at Flemington and will be suited with the step up to 1200m. Maps midfield for a good run down in weight.
2. Sircconi: Okay trial heading into this today. Last prep beat Aspect home over 1400m at Flemington but only run at track was just 6th. Certainly a nice type and ran 4th in a G1 after that. May just need further?
3. Bandipur: Well up in grade last start into Listed at Morphetville and flew home to score a very big win over the 1050m. Step back up to 1200m is suitable and looks a type that would be suited by Moonee Valley… but there is a query at this horse on the dryer tracks compared to those wet tracks where the horse has shown Group class form.
4. Al Passem: Went through the grades last prep before found a few too good in Listed grade. Trialed okay heading into this and will have to prove his worth.
5. Cao Cao: Over-raced throughout first up and is just a forgive run. Clearly going well this prep and a stronger tempo back at Moonee Valley should suit.
6. Lone Eagle: Freshened between runs and scratched last week, comes into this race where he will be sustaining a long late run to come over the top of them from the barrier.
7. Muraaqeb: Looked a good type last prep with G3 placing and 3rd behind Doubt I’m Dreaming last prep. Been spelled and should have trained on. Walker onboard.
8. Tycoon Dancer: One run one win for the stalbe as 2YO and returns here with a lot to prove. Good barrier and will be on speed.
9. Overshare: Looked a nice type last prep but never trained on to the top level. Come back okay with a maiden win but well beaten last start.
10. Sunquest: Ran home nicely but once again another not well weighted by the speeds set at Flemington last start. Could improve.
11. Frankel My Dear: Never suited one bit last start by the speeds on at Flemington but good late sectionals. Will go back from the barrier again today.
Comments: Wide open race with several chances in the race. Cao Cao looks well over the correct odds today while so does Frankel My Dear. Backing both would be the only way I could play here, with the value.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 5, 6, 11
Strategy: Back both Cao Cao and Frankel My Dear
Moonee Valley Race 7 – 1000m – SAJ Fruit Supply Carlyon Stakes
1. Jungle Edge: Poor run first up at Randwick over the 1200m on a Soft 6. Gets a good surface today where he has a 0 wins from 11 starts record. Hard to suggest.
2. Keen Array: Always been a very good type but failed in previous preps to reach the very top level. First up run failed on a heavy track. Expect much better here.
3. General Truce: Two runs this prep and both horrible from this 10YO. Hard to suggest from now on.
4. Sunday Escape: Good win last start at Flemington when led them along and just held on. Stays at 1000m and always gone well at MV in the past. Barrier only issue.
5. Prussian Vixen: First up today which isn’t where she has fired well in the past. Goes well over any distance from on speed though but has never won at this track.
6. Orujo: Flying currently. Good 4th last start beaten 0.5L but never won at track a big concern.
7. O’Malley: Spelled after a decent return last prep with some okay runs. Has to obviously improve here.
8. El Divino: Very good first up last prep before going onto fail in the next few starts. Highly regarded horse by the stable and is a G3 winner.
10. Heatherly: Certainly loves this track and goes well first up. Group 1 rated horse that will be hard to get past.
11. Missrock: 2nd in the Goodwood behind Vega Magic and that is great form lines to take into this. Gets in well at the weights and could argue that her form is better than Heatherly’s.
12. Lady Esprit: First up today in a harder grade of race. 1.75L behind Heatherly to end last prep and much worse off at weights today. Hard to suggest.
13. One More Daisy: Struggle to sugest a win. Yes, good run 2nd in Opoen class last start but this a huge step up in grade. Place chance.
Comments: A number of chances on the cards here. Missrock with Benny Melham onboard looks the key overs in the race and if fully wound up will be very hard to hold out. Speedeor is one I can’t back without seeing in the yard while Heatherly looks unders in a race on a day when i’m expecting the rail to end up being off.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 4, 10, 11
Strategy: Missrock – 1 unit Each-Way @ $7.50/$2.50
Moonee Valley Race 8 – 1500m – Ladbrokes Handicap
1. Articus: Gelded. Best seen 1800+ and while 1500m will be too short, can expect he will run well.
2. Boom Time: Solid last prep with 2 wins from 5 starts. Both wins over 2000m+ and needs the run today.
3. Tashbeeh: Much better suited today back to a dryer surface and up to 1500m. Sensational run three back a Flemington and Parish is the jockey for him.
4. Duke of Brunswick: Blocked for runs last start in G3 company and will be improved for the run up to 1500m today, Can’t give away a huge start today.
5. Raw Impulse: Goes well enouhg at these distance with a win over 1500m on the record in easier grade. Continues to go through the grades.
6. Grey Lion: Nice trial but first up over unsuitable 1500m distance. Thake on
7. Nozomi: Huge run last start ridden for luck and got the dream splits. Has to improve again.
8. Tried and Tired: Continues to put in very solid runs this prep without going close to a win. Has to improve.
9. Mihany: Hugely disappointing all prep and was backed last start. Can’t see it.
10. Harlow Gold: Best in past seen over further but still goes well at these distances. Never won first up but can’t be ignored.
11. I’m Feeling Lucky: Bar plates off. WA horse now with Weir yard. Handicap winner and listed placed.
12. Lord Van Percy: Doesn’t go too well first up on recent stats. Distance too short of best.
13. Here to There: Got the luck and run last start at Caulfield when not best on the day. Hard to see the improvement.
15. Lord Durante: Old mate ran very well two back but clearly beaten last start. Others preferred.
Comments: Duke of Brunswick maps for an ideal spot throughout today and step up to 1500m ideal. Looks weighted to win.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 3, 4, 5, 7
Strategy: Duke of Brunswick – 3.5 units @ $3.70
Moonee Valley Race 9 – 1200m – Art Series Hotel Group Handicap
1. Mighty Like: Two solid runs this prep in similar to harder company. Never won at track but will get a spot midfield and run well with 3kg claim.
2. Ruettiger: Disappointing run in the wrong part of the track in G3 company when weakened out badly last start. Three back run was very good 3rd to Ability and good enough to win this.
4. Pin Your Hopes: First up today and never won at this track or distance in the past. Needs further.
5. Red Alto: Good win first up and in similar class today. Proved to have a strong turn of foot this prep and has to be respected.
6. Tudor: Average at best first up and up to 1200m today in similar grade. Has to improve significantly.
7. Rocket Tommy: Looked well short of 100% fit in the yard at Flemington and stuck on solidly and didn’t find runs late. Will be improved for the run and expected to run well here.
8. Oak Door: 4th over 1200m down the straight last prep before failing up in Doomben at the QLD Guineas. Best seen over the 1400s.
9. Smackdown: Not a bad run 4th behind Play Master last start but clearly has to improve onwards again. Did run well enough first up… but never placed here at track.
10. Oberland: Horrible run first up in easier grade. Previous prep ran nicely over 1200m to score at Sunshine Coast. Was well backed favourite last start. Not sure what to make of run.
11. Taddei Tondo: First up today and has won at track in the past. Only 1 win from 29 over distance makes it certainly hard up to this grade.
12. Hay Bale: Horrid ride last start and will get a much better suited race today with Jye taking the ride today. Map isn’t perfect.
13. Runsati: Horrible run last start at Flemington and hard to see the horse wining on previous three runs.
14. Sovereign Duke: Good 2nd to Labuan Star first up over 1000m and step up in class and grade. Not for me.
Comments: Tough way to end the day. Hard to ignore the E/W odds on offer for Rocket Tommy who will figure in the finish.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 7, 8, 10, 12
Strategy: Rocket Tommy E/W
