Welcome to The Profits preview for Moonee Valley on 24 March 2017. There has been a nice bit of rain come through Melbourne early on in the week while Sunshine has ruled leading into this meeting on Friday night and that will ensure we have a very nice track on offer at Moonee Valley. We look at the full card on offer and have pulled out three strong bets on what looks a ripping card. We will be covering as much of the Mornington and Rosehill cards as possible in our Saturday preview so make sure you come back and read on Saturday. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 5 – Ellicazoom – 3 units @ $3.70 to win
Next Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 4 – Sirbible – 2.5 units to place @ $2.30
Best Value
Moonee Valley Race 7 – Flamberge – 1 unit Each-Way @ $16/$4.50
Moonee Valley Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 9
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 3, 6, 10
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 6, 10, 11, 13
Quaddie Leg Four: 3, 5
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Moonee Valley Race 1 – 2040m – Simpson Construction Handicap
1. Wells: First up here and never placed first up in the past. Does obviously run well at track and goes okay at this distance but clearly back for a hurdles campaign.
2. Mightiest: Two strong seconds in a row heading into this. Looks nicely in here and will run a very bold race again. Average mapping.
3. Startierra: Colac BM-64 winner two back before failing at Sandown. Not sure I can see him measuring up here today.
4. Poppiholla: BM-64 grade winner in nice style at Ballarat two back. Good run last start in similar grade at course and distance when unlucky in running held up. Can run well. Weir stable runner. Nicely weighted. Good barrier.
5. Princess Aria: First up smashed a 12 horse field at Sandown as a big price. Was a very tough win and looks the type to be suited at this track.
6. Melaleuca: Two hurdle trials heading into this run. Previous runs saw a very good run at Colac in similar grade over 1600m before failing next start. Win wouldn’t be a shock.
7. Typhoon Monaco: Fiarly beaten 2nd last start at course and distance when beat home Poppiholla. Has to improve again but going well.
8. Star Zone: Hasn’t gone close all things considered with every chance all prep. Up in class here also doesn’t help chances.
10. Mandlakazi: Couldn’t win a maiden.
Comments: Princess Aria looks the real deal. Yes, she will be out the back and running on, but they will be off and gone 600m out and she will get run right into the race when it counts. Big chance.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Princess Aria E/W
Moonee Valley Race 2 – 1200m – Ascend Sales Valley Pearl
1. Coruscate: Looked a nice type winning his maiden and then went on to run a close 2nd in G2 company on Heavy 8 over 1200m before running 3rd in G3 class on soft 7. Will be on speed today and will run very well.
2. Showtime: 3.2L 4th in G2 company last start on the Heavy 9 and 2L 3rd behind She Will Reign in the Silver Slipper. Obviously comes into this with strong form lines worth respecting. Maps to get a sit just off the lead.
3. Muraaqeb: Strong win at course over 1000m first up and then fairly beaten 3rd last start in the Black Opal. Looks very short in betting to my eye especially from barrier 1.
5. Peppino: 3.25L 5th in only start to date behind Poloverset. Needs to improve to place.
6. Doubt I’m Dreaming: Trialled well enough heading into this, but would need to be a top class type to break through in this race. Hard to suggest.
8. Pageantry: Maiden winner first up. Not terrible two back in the Chairmans and a good run 3rd behind Time Awaits and Spoils in Morphetville last start. Others preferred though. Top 3 chance but not sure she is winning.
9. Purrhaps: Good run 2nd here last start over the 1000m. Had to go wide. Improving type that can run well.
10. She’s Our Gift: Surely not just here for the run but hard to suggest on only run to date.
Comments: I couldn’t touch the $2.70 on offer for Muraaqeb who i have closer to a $4 chance here from the very difficult barrier. Showtime is the horse to follow here with a 2L 3rd behind She Will Reign on the record.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Showtime to win.
Moonee Valley Race 3 – 1200m – PKF Plate
1. Ken’s Dream: Very good horse. First up he ran a strong race behind Falcool down the straight over 1100m. Step up to 1200m and back to Moonee Valley has him well in.
2. Falcool: Looked a nice type last prep but went to the next level first up when won very well over the 1100m down the straight. Nice barrier again today but needs to show more early speed to get the right spot.
3. Artie Dee Two: Two runs this prep and has gone well on both occasions. First up was too far back and hit the line strongly. Last start had every chance but found a few too good. Has to improve but obviously has the ability.
4. Matty: Deeply horrible run last start down the straight at Flemington. Previous start was a very good win at course over 1000m. A horse with ability.
6. Demolition: Three trials heading into this including the last start win. Maiden winner last prep and BM-67 grade winner. May very well be good enough but short enough in the market.
7. Armedanddangerous: Maiden winner first up in a good enough fashion. Well beaten the past two starts though. Has to improve.
8. Stop Making Sense: G3 second last prep first up and well beaten the other two starts. Obviously has some top level ability. Has been well backed.
9. Cheree’s Shinzig: Maiden winner first up. Huge step up in grade. Not for mine here even with previous preps runs.
Comments: One of the toughest races on the card. Ken’s Dream looks under the odds and so does Demolition. Sheriff John Stone looks slightly over the odds as does Matty… and while Falcool looks a good type, it is poorly weighted here.
Confidence 50%
Strategy: Ken’s Dream to win.
Moonee Valley Race 4 – 955m – Inglis 55 Second Challenge Heat 16
1. Sirbible: Last win was at course and distance where he broke the clock. Ran a very strong 3rd in G2 class last start behind Malaguerra and Black Heart Bart. Will lead them around and be hard to get past.
2. Tuscan Sling: First up today off a long lay off due to injury. Huge ask first up today but does go well over the distance.
3. Beau Rada: Last win was at course and distance beating some decent enough type sin easier grade. Has to make another step up here to measure up.
4. Play Master: First up today and goes well first up. Trial didn’t tell us anything. Last prep showed nothing. Can’t have.
5. Petits Filous: Group class horse two preps back. Last prep 3YF Handicap winner over 1100m with a big weight from on speed in fast time before failing the next two starts. Been off nearly a year. Won 2 from 3 at track.
6. Bullpit: Continues to run well without winning. Nice 2nd behind Rocket Tommy last start on the ‘biased’ track off a slow early pace. Needs to improve.
7. Sunday Escape: Not too bad last start but others runs in the past have been better. Nicely enough suited but has to improve.
8. Dance with Fontein: In well at the weights. Coming off a EIPH run though is a bit query. Best has been seen over further than 955m.
9. Punt Club: Well in here again. Had to do a load of work last start but still got the money at course and distance. Testing material today.
Comments: This race to me is very simple. If Petits Filous is at her best, she will go very well here, but i still think she is beatable on what we know. Tuscan Sling is hard to trust also.. good horse but hard to see a peak run coming back from that injury. Sirbible has recorded the fastest run ever over 955m at this course. He will lead and he will be hard to run down late with the speed put on that just doesn’t suit most horses. I’m more than happy to be on Sirbible to place here with only 2 main threats on my radar with him coming off that sensational G2 run over 1200m.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Sirbible – 2.5 units to place @ $2.30
Moonee Valley Race 5 – 1600m – Art Series Hotel Group Alexandra Stakes
1. Ellicazoom: Sensational run last start at Flemington from on speed and just got nosed out late. Doesn’t have to beat I Am a Star here and looks ideally placed. Maps to sit just off the speed, but every chance they push her on to sit outside the leader.
2. Oregon’s Day: Jumped poorly and out the back. Ran on well enough into 8th. Previous start was 0.1L off Ellicazoom. barrier 2 suits if can jump better.
3. Sebring Dream: Won well first up at Sandown in much easier before only fair through the line behind Circular over 1600m last start. Has to improve.
4. Peninsula Links: Adelaide runner coming over with some very strong form line looking to make her mark. On speed runner and will be leading today. Very good win last start over some average types. Has to improve again.
6. Inspired Estelle: Three runs this prep and failed to get within 2.2L of a win even though she has run well all prep. Blinker son near side first time.
7. Fragonard: Godolphin runner. BM-67 winner two back at Rosehill and 3.6L off Ellicazoom last start. Has to improve.
8. Mrs Gardenia: Two wins in a row… maiden win at course over 1519m. Last start won well from on speed in much easier grade. Will need to find lengths again.
9. Toffee Nose: Solid run third behind Mr Sneaky and Theanswermyfriend at Flemington last start. Theanswermyfriend has won well since. Respect this form.
10. A Mist Opportunity: Four runs this prep in easier grades and failed to get a win. Has to improve to run a place.
11. Classic Diva: BM-64 last start and well beaten 2nd. Hard to suggest.
12. Just Victoria: Maiden only winner. Can’t have here.
Comments: Ellicazoom is well weighted here today and looks very hard to beat. I’m very keen to play based on that last start run and the 1600m today at this track. Peninsula Links could be anything and it’s hard to ignore Oregon’s Day on previous form if jumps better today. Toffee Nose looks the improver to follow and can’t be left out of the Quaddie either.
Confidence 90%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 9
Strategy: Ellicazoom – 3 units @ $3.70
Moonee Valley Race 6 – 1600m – William Hill Sunline Stakes
1. Rising Romance: Huge run first up in G3 company off a hot tempo when just missed 2nd behind Turbo Miss. This looks a harder grade of race but she obviously is suited to the increase in distance. Maps much better today also closer to the speed.
2. First Seal: Showed nothing in the Coolmore on a soft track. Previous prep won in G2 company when going strongly.. but it wasn’t the best G2 win you will see. Does need to improve to win this today. Goes well the Melbourne Way. First time at the track.
3. French Emotion: Three runs this prep up north and hasn’t got closer than 3L to the winners. 8 runs for 0 wins up in Sydney.. just believe she goes much better the Sydney way and needs the dry tracks. G2 winner over 1400m last prep and 0.4L 2nd to I Am a Star in the Myer over 1600m. Over the odds.
5. Circular: G3 winner last start over 1600m at Flemington. Beat some handy types on the day. Will be going far back from the barrier and will need to be very good to round this lot up.
6. Turbo Miss: Strong win last start at Flemington when fairly beating Rising Romance home. Similar weights and strong barrier 1 today. Maps a treat.
7. Lady Selkirk: Ran nicely 6th last start in the Mannerism and step back up to 1600m is ideal. Settle more forward from barrier 4 today and a win would’t be a total shock, but she will have to run a career best by a long way.
8. Deja Blue: Continues to run well going through the grades. Ran a huge race last start when 3-wide for alot of it and got the lead 200m out and found the line strongly without being a winning chance. Much better run expected today from barrier 5.
9. Yacht Club: Struggled to run a place last start at Pakenham in much easier. Hard to suggest a place here.
10. I Am a Star: Strong enough win last start in the Kewney in a nice time. Step up to 1600m should improve the horse onwards again. Weird mapping today.. every chance to get caught wide.
Comments: This is a very messy race to figure out with a lack of speed runners in the race. Thames Court scratched so speed leader out of the race and it looks a slow to med tempo. Who does this suit more is what we have to ask. The one horse I keep coming back to is French Emotion. This is the horse in the race with the best final 200-400m sprint in the race. I couldn’t talk you out of backing the favourite here either if you want to.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 3, 6, 10
Strategy: French Emotion E/W
Moonee Valley Race 7 – 1200m – William Reid Stakes
1. Rebel Dance: Failed last start over in Sha Tin in the Hong Kong Sprint but that wasn’t much of a surprise. Previous start in the Manikato was a surprise winner on the soft surface when well suited. Obviously does his best work from on speed and maps well today.
2. Flamberge: Strong run first up over 1000m in the Kensington and then ran a very strong 1000m in the G1 Lightning beaten just 0.3L on the day behind Terravista and Speith with Star Turn 0.1L infront. Was in worse ground than the winners that day also and was a super run. Didn’t jump well enough in the Oakleigh Plate and was left too far back – much better weighted today back to WFA. This is a horse that has never been fully suited by having to push on hard early and that showed last start. Looks much better suited today up to the 1200m where he won this race last prep. From barrier 1 will get every chance to jump well and sit just off Sheidel who should be leading them around today. Will have every chance to get out late and win it.
3. The Quarterback: Had issue sin the Lightning and then only ran home fairly in the Newmarket with a respectable weight. A run behind most runners here and needs to have improved. Never placed at this track from 3 attempts.
4. Japonisme: Well beaten only run this prep on a heavy track over 1300m and steps back to 1200m here. Did run third behind Rebel Dane last prep in the Manikato but still looks a step below these runners on a Good track.
5. Hooked: Should have won last start over 1400m and was a great run. Doesn’t show his very best over 1200m but I’d still expect him to run a very bold race today even from the wide barrier. Will push forward and most likely sit outside of Sheidel in running.
6. Rock Magic: Bar plates off! Massive run last start in the Winterbottom all things considered with bar plates and was flying last prep. Nice spell between preps and first up here which he handles with class. Perfect barrier to get a spot not last in running. Will be flying late.
8. Illustrious Lad: Terrible in the Newmarket and just wasn’t suited by the tempo it seems. Ran nicely in the Lightning. Has to improve onwards and upwards and awkward barrier today. Never won at track.
9. Kaepernick: Well backed first up when never a chance out the back running on solidly in the Oakleigh Plate. Assume they sit further forward today. Has won at track previously and D Oliver takes the ride.
10. Hellbent: Blinkers on. Fairly disappointing in comparison to expectations this prep but has been well backed today. Decent run in Oakleigh Plate for 4th behind Sheidel. Up in weights today only issue.
11. Sheidel: Ran nicely last start when fairly beaten home by Redkirk Warrior and a few others on the day including Star Turn. Nice enough in at the weights but has never won at track and will have to do it the tough way leading.
12. Silent Sedition: 2nd to Heavens Above last start over 1500m in the Coolmore at Rosehill. Previous start won the Mannerism over 1400m. Not convinced she is a 1400m horse. May try push forward and lead but not sure?
13. Star Turn: Every possible chance to be ridden to push them along and hasn’t happened the past two starts. With speed looking on out front in this I’d expect them to take a sit 1 out 1 back from the barrier. Obviously a key chance but it’s hard to get excited about Dunn onboard at MV with a 9% strike rate the past 12 months at this course on a horse yet to get a win this prep.
Comments: Flamberge is the horse to forgive on it’s last start and is well weighted back to WFA grade today from an ideal draw. Star Turn is certainly a horse to beat and fairly found in the market while Hellbent with blinkers on has been well backed. Sheidel also going forward will force the pace with Hooked and make it a genuine tempo. Sheidel is certainly a winning chance but i’m not a fan at those odds. Rock Magic is the swooper in the race i’m very keen to be on and the horse has shortened in, but still represents value. Kaepernick looks the blowout chance in the race. The way i’m expecting this race to be run will be setting it up perfectly for Flamberge with a charmed run behind the leaders.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 6, 10, 11, 13
Strategy: Flamberge – 1 unit Each-Way @ $16/$4.50
Moonee Valley Race 8 – 1200m – ADAPT Australia Handicap
2. Bob of the Head: Hasn’t won in 6 runs and last five runs hasn’t gotten closer than 2.2L to a win. Best runs over further in easier.
3. Domesday Warrior: Beaten 5.5L and 4.4L two runs in. Previous runs over 1100m and 1200m were okay but not super. Needs to improve to win this.
5. Handsome Thief: Maiden win three back and then beaten fairly by a nice type in Chateua Cheval before winning strongly in BM-64 grade at Moonee Valley last start with 60kg. Well in here but does look awfully short.
6. Moral Outrage: Very nice win four back at Pakenham from on speed. Fairly beaten the past few starts though so hard to suggest.. but at his best with blinkers back on he can run a bold race from the barrier.
8. Nic Nat: Two wins in a row heading into this. Big step up in grade but hard to ignore the form lines going i nthe right direction.
9. See Me Fly: BM-64 winner four back and fairly defeated on all runs since. Two back was held up for runs. Last start was poor. Back to 1200m where suited but has to improve again to run well here.
10. Valderrama: First up ran fairly over 1000m without impressing. Needs to make a big step up to win this. On previous form he looks below this grade.
12. Search Squad: Always been a nice type but two runs this prep over BM-64 and BM-70 grade have seen him fairly defeated. Never won at track.
14. Easy Flyer: Always shown ability, but fairly beaten making the same run as Handsome Thief. Hard to see the required improvement.
Comments: This race has really fallen away with the scratching of 2nd and 3rd favourites to avoid Handsome Thief. Hard to bet around HT now but am adding Domesday Warrior to the Quaddie for value as i saw signs last few starts of a good run today.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Four: 3, 5
Strategy: Handsome Thief is hard to beat here but also hard to back at the price
