Welcome to The Profits preview for Moonee Valley on 23 December 2017. The rail is in the True for this Saturday metro meeting back at Moonee Valley after a few rail movements throughout the Friday meeting carnivals – so it will be very interesting to see just how the rail plays for on-pacers. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 7 – Bel Sonic – 2.5 units Each-Way @ $7.00/$2.25
Next Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 5 – Oncidium Ruler – 3 units @ $3.60. Ormito – 1 unit @ $13.00.
Best Each-Way
Moonee Valley Race 1 – Miles of Krishan – 1 unit to win @ $7.00 and 1.5 units to place @ BetfairSP (3 places paid)
Other Bets
Moonee Valley Race 5 – Straight Jacket – 1 unit Each-Way @ $12/$3.20
Moonee Valley Race 8 – Ken’s Dream – 1 unit Each-Way @ $8.00/$3.00
Moonee Valley Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 6, 13, 14
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 6
Quaddie Leg Three: 3, 7, 12, 14
Quaddie Leg Four: 3, 5, 9, 11
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Moonee Valley Race 1 – 1600m – McCafe Handicap – F&M BM84
1. Kirona: Chopking Jnr claims two on this Adelaide runner back in grade today. Won nicely two back in similar grade.
2. Miles of Krishan: Nosed out $2.10 fav last start over in Adelaide, beating home Kirona by 2.2L on the day. Better weighted here with Kersley onboard and from barrier 3 gets ideal run.
4. Stormsabrewing: First start at track. Back to a more suitable dryer track today and based on three back form has to be considered a huge chance here to run them down late.
5. Royal Applause: Two wins in a row. Going through the grades has to improve here.
6. Heavenly Descent: Looks the leader on the map. Nice enough 2nd behind Mrs Gardenia last start but that form hasn’t measured up since. Two back run was only fair at Cranbourne. Up to this grade has a lot to prove.
7. La Fleurette: Five runs this prep. Ran a very strong 2nd in the Donald Cup behind Another Coldie who then won at Flemington but failed on the Heavy the next start. Forgive run last start when ran well but found no luck at course in easier grade. Respect and Williams on.
8. Bonus D’oro: Just missed last start on the osft at Pakenham. Yendall sticks fat and horse goes up in grade and distance back to dryer.
Comments: Generally surprised by the price being bet today for Miles of Krishan – this horse is Group 2 F&M placed. Have this horse rated slight favourite over Heavenly Descent.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Miles of Krishan – 1 unit to win @ $7.00 and 1.5 units to place @ BetfairSP (3 places paid)
Moonee Valley Race 2 – 1500m – Ladbrokes Odds Boost Exotics Handicap – BM-70
1. Kardashing: Beaten favourite two starts this prep in easier grade. Always continues to run well and has the ratings on the board to go very close here.
2. Helix Park: Only a fair maiden win at Mornington and has to improve here.
3. All of Me: Got a win last start at Mornington over some ok types. Has to improve here again.
4. Combative: Two runs this prep for a win over 1400m. Steps up to 1500m today and has to improve like the rest of these.
5. Crimson And Clover: Bendigo winner at 1600m back to 1500m here. Wasn’t the worst run but has to improve again.
6. Sky Lake: 2YO maiden winner and last two starts failed to get a win. That being said, last start was up in open grade and ran 2nd to Reigning in Paris.
7. Super Hussey: Get back run on type. Times to finish off last start behind some nice types were sound. Further forward today from 2?
8. Truly Discreet: Looked ok as a 2YO but big jump here and last start was only fair. Step up in distance could help.
9. My Bad: Looks the main threat to Kardashing today coming off some solid runs in the past. In harder company first up 2L 4th behind Cruising. Steps back here and only issue is extra distance on paper.
10. Pleasuring: Close 2nd as favourite at the bool last start in a maiden grade race. Not out of it.
Comments: Two standouts in Kardashing and My Bad. I’d be backing both if playing here.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Back Kardashing and My Bad
Moonee Valley Race 3 – 1500m – New Year’s Eve at Legends Handicap – BM64
1. Krusty: Tatura BM-70 2nd on lead in here after a successful stint up north in Darwin. Under-rated and suited here.
2. Bernie Boy: Stays around the 1500m distance when in the past 2000m+ has been his jam. Needs further.
3. Hell on Earth: Best is obviously good enough to win this. Failed to get past Get Ya Kicks at Wangaratta last start. Going well enough.
5. Calendar Lad: Open class back to this today. Last run in this grade was a win last prep. Needs improvement.
6. Guangzhou: Tricky horse for this stable. 3YO winner over 1600m in the past but couldn’t get past light n fire over 1400m first up over 1400m a concern.
7. Get Ya Kicks: Nice enough win last start coming off some poor form prior. Not convinced.
8. Patriot Act: Tatura winner in easier grade last start. Step up in grade here and would need luck.
10. La Volt: Strong times race he comes out of at Caulfield. Was suited in run compared to today from 15. Good ride required but has the ability.
11. Praesentia: Nice type two preps back but didn’t show enough first up or last prep for me.
12. Macattack: Won just 2 from 14. Two runs this prep beaten fairly. Last start disappointing behind Evil Lil for just 4th but still running ok.
13. Star Patriot: 0.2L 2nd to Royal Applause last start at Ballarat. Previous run three back in harder ran well 3rd here. Win wouldn’t shock.
15. Vungers: Three runs this prep in easier and couldn’t get the cash. Take on.
16. Atomic Kitten: Nice win on speed three back but failed to fire since. Hard to tell.
17. Ransom Money: Been going around all prep in BM-64s and failed to score a win. Need to improve.
Comments: Tough race and not overly keen to bet. If you twisted my arm i’d be with Macattack e/w.
Confidence 50%
Strategy: Macattack e/w
Moonee Valley Race 4 – 2040m – $99 Summer Membership Handicap – BM-78
2. Brigadier: Strong form lines 2nd in the Dunkeld CUp and then a big run 3rd at Werribee behind Articus and Aeratus. Has to be respected… but horse doesn’t seem to know how to win> 3kg claim crucial.
3. Shards: Not the worst run last start but clearly didn’t handle wet and wasn’t super in the yard. Has to improve back to this grade.
4. Crafty Devil: Two wins in a row before 3rd in the Ararat Cup. Can improve again today and freshen up was important for this horse.
5. Straight Jacket: Bordertown Cup winner beating some average types. 3kg claimer onboard.. has to find best form to measure up here but gets the right barrier and speed will be on.
6. Multitude: Waterhouse runner that only boxed on last start at Pakenham well beaten by O’Lonera. May need to run them around faster here.
8. Fontein Lad: Went around favourite last start and never a chance over the 2000m in this grade. Stays in this grade back to dry track.. has to be respected but has to improve again.
9. The Thug: Led them around at strong tempo last start and just run down late by a nice type in Last Week. Respect on step up.
10. Shangani Patrol: Maiden winner two back over 1500m. First urn 2000m last start nice 3rd from on speed. Wants the distance.
Comments: Expect The Thug to run this along with a solid tempo out front setting it up for the best horses over this 2000m+ distance to win the race. Based on past runs, horses like Straight Jacket and Shards will measure up. Straight Jacket get the perfect runs from inside draw and is big overs
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Straight Jacket – 1 unit Each-Way @ $12/$3.20
Moonee Valley Race 5 – 2500m – Bertocchi Christmas Masterpiece Handicap
1. Oncidium Ruler: Stays at 2500m today and finds a dryer track which looks to be key. Chop King takes the ride and claims a handy 2kg. Barrier 3 ideal for the perfect ride.
2. Imperial Aviator: Only run last prep disappointed on Heavy. Came back after 3 trials to run well first up over 2000m and then last start win well at Rosehill over 2400m. Steps up in grade here and Baster takes ride. Not a leader type though so Baster will need to give a solid ride today. Clearly a good type.
3. Survived: Won his third Mt Gambier cup in a row last start by a massive 5L on a Soft 6 track beating an ok type in Bling Dynasty. Has to be respected on that last start run.
4. Dandy Gent: Very well backed last start in the Pakenham Cup and ran a respectable 4th. Back to dryer today… hasn’t won many races ever.
5. Bling Dynasty: Beaten 5L last start behind Survived as fav in the Cup. Previous form solid enough for this.
6. Ormito: Didn’t run bad last start showing improvement to run a respectable 3L 7th. Back to Dryer where he ran his best ever 2nd in G3 company in the past beating home Red Cardinal on the day. Could very well be ready to fire here.
7. Choysa: Failed to fire the past two starts in easier grade. Take on.
8. Dornier: Not the worst horse going around on the day but well outclassed here.
Comments: Three standouts here with Oncidium Ruler, Imperial Aviator and Ormito. I thought coming into the race i’d be finding Imperial Avaiator but the more I look into it, the keener I get on Oncidium Ruler and Ormito at odds.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Oncidium Ruler – 3 units @ $3.60. Ormito – 1 unit @ $13.00.
Moonee Valley Race 6 – 1200m – Powerflo Solutions Handicap
1. Atlantic City: Did a lot wrong last start in the Dollar for Dollar race and has to be respected stepping back to the 1200m here. Barrier only issues, rates well and times check out.
2. Khutulun: Ended last prep beating Ashee Marie – massive win. Best runs clearly over further than this the issue.
3. King’s Command: Ended last prep over 1400m and just missed behind Top Me Up at Flemington. Goes well at this distance and great record at track. Won 3 from 4 first up and was backed before scratched last start.
4. Just Magical: Failed to fire a shot either run this prep. Back in class but clearly a huge ask.
5. Kievann: Looked $2,000,000 in the yard last start and just ran out of gas late. Will run well again here.
6. King River: Great showing first up off the unsuitable pace. Step up to 1200m ideal from barrier.
7. Lord Barrington: Strong 2nd to Got the Goos two back at Kyneton but then failed on the Heavy last start behind Widgee Turf when the horse has solid stats on it. Unknown.
8. Painte: Third start for new yard and failed the first two starts without any luck. Big chance here at best.
9. Roman Fizz: Always had ability based on best runs in the past. End of last prep disappointed hugely though. Never won first up a concern.
10. Valderrama: Blocked for runs first up. Previous prep won three in a row and has to be considered a good type.
11. Data Point: Failed as favourite first up on the heavy. Back to dryer here but is 8 runs 0 wins on a good track and never won at MV. Obviously good enough but best over further?
12. Domino Vitale: Big odds runner considering Williams takes the ride first up. Horse has won at 1200m and track in the past but best over further.
13. Essence of Terror: Flew home last start at Caulfield from an unwinnable position. Barrier doesn’t help today at all. Need luck in running. Good type.
14. Just Hifalutin: Flew home and claimed Kievann in a really good win last start at course and distance. Step up in class here but horse is flying. Barrier a huge issue. ,
Comments: Tough race with big field. King’s Command first up if ready to fire is the horse to beat while I like the chances of King’s River to run well here.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 6, 13, 14
Strategy: King’s Command E/W
Moonee Valley Race 7 – 1200m – Ladbrokes VOBIS Gold Carat
1. Bel Sonic: Loved what Bel Sonic did last start at Pakenham against the bias. Get back run on type and a huge chance here. Big odds.
2. Muraahib: Fan of this horse but last two starts of last prep failed hard. Best clearly has this horse favourite here but will need luck from pattern also.
4. Crystal Spirit: Pakenham winner in much easier than this first up on Synthetic. Big jump.
6. Blackwolf Run: Only run in past a very valid 3rd. Can obviously be good enough here and will lead.
7. Je Suis Tycoon: Always looked a top type but this pre has concerned me. Take on.
8. Aeecee Tong De: Maiden winner first up for Gai/Bott. Big jump for mine here.
11. Miss Skeptical: Maiden winner at Bairnsdale 2nd up. Best isn’t too bad actually.
12. Teleplay: Didn’t have to do much first up winning at Kilmore in a 6 horse field. Testing material.
Comments: Three standouts here for me and i’m super keen on Bel Sonic to get the job done.
Confidence 90%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 6
Strategy: Bel Sonic – 2.5 units Each-Way @ @ $7.00/$2.25
Moonee Valley Race 8 – 1000m – Follow @TheValley Handicap – BM-84
1. Sirbible: Nice enough run first up over the 955m. Steps back in grade and up to 1000m. Goes well MV.
2. Diamond Oasis: Hasn’t won in a long time or ran a good race in a while. Have to take him on.
3. Play Master: Big odds runner here. Been going close last prep in harder races and while MV isn’t his track, it’s hard to dismiss him fully.
4. Olivier: Open class Morphetville winner last prep. Two runs back this prep and failed in both. Jockey change a plus.
5. Lady Esprit: Always runs well here but needs luck in running. Came back from harder company today.
6. Nasdex: Got the run on speed and won well accordingly holding off Wise Hero at Pakenham due to a good ride. Won’t get that run today and have to work a lot harder.
7. Ken’s Dream: Gelded! Goes very well at course, distance and first up. Measured up big time in the 3YO grades. Can deliver at both ends.
8. Leodoro: Nice enough run first up not suited behind Nasdex. More speed will help here.
9. Mogador: Always presented as a nice type but hasn’t won in two preps and first up today at 1000m a query.
10. Dance with Fontein: Limited type and can’t see it here.
11. Invincible Al: Get back run on type. Needs speed on and goes well at track.
12. Modern Wonder: Strong win two back at course and distance beating a nice type in Brugal Reward before failing on the Heavy track last start. Can continue on great form here at track.
13. Murphy’s Reward: Finsihed off last prep with 3 wins from last 5 runs. Big ask first up here in this grade.
14. Wise Hero: 3YO winner. Beaten 0.1L last start by Nasdex with no speed on in the race. Testing material here and really is just another first up run from on speed.
17. Star Stealer: Nice type of horse but failed first up when wasn’t ready one bit. Need to see from yard.
Comments: Speed will be on here and i’m more than happy to be on a horse taking a sit. If Weir has Ken’s Dream ready to go i can see him sitting 3-wide the trip with cover and being way too hard to hold out.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Three: 3, 7, 12, 14
Strategy: Ken’s Dream – 1 unit Each-Way @ $8.00/$3.00
Moonee Valley Race 9 – 1500m – NJT20cricket.com.au Handicap – BM-84
1. Bel Burgess: Good win last start at Wodonga but didn’t beat a lot. Has to improve again here. Going well though!
2. Black Sheep: Weir keeps this horse going. Great win two back but failed last start at Ballarat. Can bounce back.
3. Plot the Course: First up after 8 months off. Best seen over slightly further but still goes very well over the 1500m. Very good type but queries over injuries.
5. Amadeus: Huge giant win last start at Pakenham. Smashed a good field. Has to be respected here even back to the dryer track.
6. Mr Gustavo: Got the win two back here over Royal Ace then failed last start on the soft. Good enough to run well but this grade?
8. Wall Street Wolf: Looked great at Pakenham and was well backed but only ran fairly 4th. Back in grade here but still faces Amadeus. Nice position in run from 2.
9. Widgee Turf: Easy heavy win last start. Horses out of this meeting like Vinland and Mrs Gardenia have failed since as favourites the next start so query over a step up in distance and grade.
10. Royal Ace: Best seen on wetter tracks. Good type but i’ll take on in this level of grade.
11. Le Juge: Gelded. 104 timeform rating, this horse loves this distance range and looks a significant chance to just blow these runners away.
Comments: Some big overs to finish the meeting here with the international Le Juge a huge price and so is the best runner in the race Plot the Course.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Four: 3, 5, 9, 11
Strategy: Back Le Juge & Plot The Course
