Welcome to The Profits preview for Moonee Valley and Randwick on 21 January 2017. After one of our very best weeks we came out with a tough duck egg last week where nothing went our way. We made up for it with a solid confident mid-week result, but there is still a lot more that needs to happen to get us back on track for the month. Racing returns to Moonee Valley this week where sitting midfield or closer to the speed will certainly be an advantage. As always I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 1 – Strictly Legit – 2 units @ $4.60. Gratwick 1.25 units @ $8.00
Next Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 7 – Crystal Dreamer – 1.75 units @ $4.60 to win.
Best Value Bets
Moonee Valley Race 8 – Bon Rocket – 1.25 units Each-Way @ $6/$2.20
Randwick Race 6 – King's Officer – 1 unit Each-Way @ $9/$2.70
Other Best Bets
Moonee Valley Race 5 – Miss It and a Bit – 1 unit @ $19 & In Fairness – 1.5 units @ $8.5
Moonee Valley Quaddie
Leg One: 1, 6, 9, 10
Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 7, 9
Leg Three: 1, 2, 6, 7, 8
Leg Four: 1, 4, 6, 8, 9, 10, 13
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Moonee Valley Race 1 – 1200m – William Hill Handicap
1. Invincible Al: New jockey today after the shitshow of a ride last start. Time ran that day was fairly slow. Up to 1200m where I think the horse is very best over the 1000m. Best has been also seen on longer straights. Top weight and where will he map today? Most have the horse going back… i'd be riding to go forward with only a few core speed runners in the race.
2. Mr Sneaky: On speed runner who is up to the mark. Good win last start at Werribee but only had to beat 4 others. Consistently always runs a good race and will be well suited to this track. Only query is extra 100m and his closing speed.
3. Gratwick: Quality horse that continues to run well without winning. Continues to over-race and Williams keeps the ride here. From the barrier expect him to lead or sit outside the leader. Well back in grade here and will be very hard to get past.
4. Awake in Grinzing: 2YO winner and ran well in 3YO-LR grade. Has to improve onwards and upwards again today. Maps out the back here, but if ridden more forward could be a good show.
5. Malaise: Only two runs to judge him off and both were on heavy tracks. Has to obviously have improved onwards and upwards and I have to take him on here on what i've seen.
6. Strictly Legit: Very classy horse. Good maiden win first up before being simply way too far back last start at Caulfield given no chance by Murray onboard. Zahra replaces Murray and i'm expecting him to be on speed being very hard to hold out. Massive chance.
7. Electric Charlie: Very nice Wodonga win last start over 1400m. Back to 1200m a big of a query for mine on everything we have seen to date. Obviously has ability on what has been shown but would need to find a length or two to be in the finish. Place chance at good odds?
8. Segovia: Three runs this prep and has been well off the winners on all three occasions including a third behind Invincible Al. Needs to improve to place. Can't have him.
Comments: Two clear standouts on my ratings in Strictly Legit and Gratwick. Happy to back both here.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Strictly Legit – 2 units @ $4.60. Gratwick 1.25 units @ $8.00
Moonee Valley Race 2 – 1600m – Schweppes Lemonade Handicap
2. Kiss me Ketut: Hugely disappointing run last start at Sandown yet nothing on the report to explain it. Took a bath in the betting also. Similar class here today and up in the weights. Goes well at this track
3. Aurora Glow: Waller runner who won last start in this grade over 1300m. Has won over 1600m in the past and has handled tight tracks. Has to be respected. Will be getting back running on.
4. Sensation Ally: Good win over 1500m two back over a nice type in Statton before fairly beaten 3rd behind Jacquis Joy last start. Very good form lines heading into this. Will be on speed leading with Tessabelle and very hard to get past.
6. La Speciale: Too far back last start at Flemington to be a chance. Finished off nicely as expected and can go back again today in a smaller field to finish off over the top. Obviously has ability.
7. Zasorceress: Group 3 placed last prep at Randwick behind some average types. Ran very well first up over the unsuitable 1400m and steps up to 1600m which is right on her winning limit. Well placed and a bit chance.
8. My Obsession: Hasn't won in 10 runs this prep and hasn't been within 2.5L the last four runs in similar or easier grade. Has to improve.
9. Your Divine Archie: Tough ask hugely up in class and poorly weighted.
10. Tessabelle: Stable not going very well currently. Fairly beaten the last few starts and has to improve again.
Comments: Not overly confident to bet here. La Speciale is the favourite and Zasorceress deserves to be second favourite, but both are under the odds. Kiss me Ketut is a massive price with the 3kg claim today from the barrier based on a forgive run last start while Sensation Ally will also be hard to get past.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Back both Kiss Me Ketut and Sensation Ally.
Moonee Valley Race 3 – 2040m – Metcash Handicap
1. Atlantic Express: Disappointed me as part of a best bet two back at Caulfield but back in class duely saluted last start at Sandown. Nicely in at the weights today slightly up in class… first time 2040m is the unknown today.
2. Matamanoa: BM-58 grade winner last start in a much much much easier race. Two back run wasn't bad behind Von Classic Hero. Has to find a lot more to win this.
3. Kamindu: Maiden winner last start in slowish time on a soft track. 1500m up to 2040m looks much better suited for this Skilled bred gelding.
4. Sassoon: Maiden winner. Fairly beaten last start well behind Atlantic Express. Has to find a length or two today to get the job done.
5. French Snitzel: Overraced but no real excuse last prep behind Atlantic Express. Hard to see the improvement even up over this distance.
6. Presscott: 1600m 3rd behind Atlantic Express last start and looks clearly bred to run well over further. Fourth up.
7. Thanos: Maiden winner last start at Bendigo before being destroyed two weeks back at Caulfield. Similar grade of race here. Has to improve.
8. Igitur: 5L maiden winner two back over 2100m. Had his chance last start at the bool but didn't show up. Expect a lot better here today.
9. Wheal Leisure: Maiden winner first up before running nicely 5th behind Gervais in BM-70 grade at Flemington. Has ability and maps nicely from the barrier.
10. Tressie's Choice: 2000m Maiden winner as a $151 shot last start at Ararat on a soft track. Clearly wants it wetter than today to find her best. Slow time run.
11. Blue Ocean: 1600m 4.3L win last start at Kilmore and really looks to have put it all together. Based on last start it's hard to ignore her.
12. Dangerwood: Horrible both starts. Not hanks.
Comments: Two top chances here in Wheal Leisure and Blue Ocean, but no real confidence overall.
Confidence 50%
Strategy: Wheal Leisure to win. Also back Blue Ocean.
Moonee Valley Race 4 – 1500m – Ranvet VOBIS Gold Star
1. Burning Front: Tough win last start at Caulfield in this grade when on speed running boldly beating out Hellova Street. Fair weight again today and looks the leader in the race. Hard to beat.
2. Refulgent: Surprised a few with the win last start at Bool where almost every other runner had bad luck according to twitter. Has ability and doesn't show it too often. Has to improve again slightly.
3. O'Lonera: Never placed over these distances in the past and is looking for 2000m+.
4. Hokkaido: Fair run 3rd last start at Caulfield over 1400m behind Bradman. Found a good type on the day first up and will have improved onwards today. Respect.
5. Hard Call: Big win last start at Caulfield over the BM-84 over 1400m. Maps nicely from barrier 7 and will be hard to hold out.
6. Diamond District: Echuca BM-70 winner taking a huge step up in class. Hard to suggest here.
8. Cosmic Lights: Very disappointing run down the straight for mine as his previous win was nice. Inconsistent type.
9. Ballybrit: Won two in a row in much easier grade then well beaten by Big Duke last start. Has to improve.
Comments: The market has this right. Burning Front is the favourite and wins at least 50% of the time here. That being said, Hard Call is a legit chance to take the win.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Burning Front to win.
Moonee Valley Race 5 – 1600m – Schweppervescence Handicap
1. Like a Carousel: Hasn't won since 2014 and last 2 prep couldn't get close to a place. No thanks.
2. Hipparchus: Been going well without winning and has been well supported on most occasions. Last two runs were more than good enough back to this grade. Step back to 1600m probably the only negative with 3 runs for 0 places, but i think he is fit enough to handle it.
3. King's Command: Lame and heat stress last start at Caulfield when ran last as a well supported favourite over the 1400m. First run over the 1600m and i'm going to suggest the horse is questionable off a lameness issue here up to 1600m.
4. In Fairness: Nice horse that ran very well three back at Moonee Valley for a good win. Backed that up with a nice run in Listed company before failing to fire last start at Caulfield over the 1400m. Back up to the 1600m the key here for the horse and nicely weighted as one of the two clear on speeders. Good history on this track.
5. Domino Vitale: Very easy win last start at a bet for us at Flemington when on the speed with the speed on just loved it and won with ease. Only query is the tight turning track today with the last few runs on them not producing much. Has to go forward again today and does map to sit just off the leaders. Very hard to beat.
6. Your Dash for Cash: 2600m winner last start. First up here and this is well unsuitable in this grade.
7. Miss It and a Bit: Tasmanian horse coming over the sea and border. Been running well enough back home behind some average types but also behind some nice horses. Has to improve onwards and is better on a wetter track.
8. See What I Bring: Did a lot wrong over-racing last start at Sandown but still ran very well 3rd behind Lady Selkirk. Similar grade of race here and has to improve but looks a big price.
9. Sword of Justice: Strong win last start over the 1400m in BM-70 grade at Sandown. Step up in class but has the ability… just certainly an unknown over this distance.
Comments: Two horses map to get every chance on speed today and pretty much steal the race by setting the right tempo in Miss It and a Bit and also In Fairness. Both map as getting the right runs to get the front and both will be leading around the turn coming into the straight with 200m to go.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Miss It and a Bit – 1 unit @ $19 & In Fairness – 1.5 units @ $8.5
Moonee Valley Race 6 – 2040m – Schweppes Sparkling Handicap
1. Cool Chap: Ran a very good race over the 1800m last start ridden out the back to run on and was making up loads of ground late on Plein Ciel. Frmom the barrier i'm expecting them to jump him on speed and get a sit 1 out 1 back with a very good ride. Clear chance and hard to beat on best.
2. Hursley: Horrible first up. Up to 2040m seconds up but really hard to trust the horse this short into the prep.
3. Shikarpour: Consistent type of horse that goes nicely enough around this level but doesn't win out of turn. Can run well again but this is a harder race than the last few for mine and has run into some good types again.
4. Valediction: Goes well over this distance based on past preps but he is just here today to run around for his hurdles this prep.
5. Carlo Bugatti: Shown nothing all three runs this prep and after the two back run I had to declare him as no good this prep. Take on.
6. Big Duke: Biggest win in the past decade last start over the 1800m at Caulfield. Fair effort that. Up in weight and distance but is certainly suited by all of the above. Slightly trickier mapping today but has every chance to sit 1 off 2 back. Very hard to hold out.
7. Use the Lot: Good win in country grade last start. Continues to run well from on speed in the country. Goes okay at this track but not the last two preps in city grade.
8. Post D'France: Liability. Shouldn't be on the track.
9. Sherlock Holmes: First up runner for the Williams 'stable'. R-90 winner over 2800m back in Ireland. Recorded a 93+ timeform rating which is solid enough for a bm-78 grade race… but that was over further. Need to be good but clearly has ability.
10. Crediton: BM-70 2nd to Oncidium Ruler last start and ran well for mine. Back in distance a negative and up to this grade.
11. Morning Sunshine: FMB-78 3.4L 3rd to Domino Vitale last start with every chance on speed. Was a good run for a horse off a BM-58. Hard to have here.
Comments: Three clear chances on my ratings here today in Cool Chap, Big Duke and Sherlock Holmes. Big Duke is too short on my ratings where the other two have every chance to get past the Duke today.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 6, 9, 10
Strategy: Back Cool Chap and Sherlock Holmes.
Moonee Valley Race 7 – 1000m – Schweppes Indian Tonic Handicap
1. Olivier: 4-wide the trip last start at Moonee Valley and never a chance. Back in class here and looks very well suited, apart from the barrier. Mapping the only query.. assume ride last and ride for luck.
2. Crystal Dreamer: Three starts for three wins this prep. Back in distance a big important factor today as i think he is best over the 1000m distance. First attempt Moonee Valley a slight concern. Barrier 2, Maps to be on speed today and hope they don't ride for luck… get off the rail please!
3. Runsati: Good horse on his day. Back in class here after two very solid on speed runs in open class. Meech keeps ride and he looks very well in here.
4. Sunday Escape: Ignore two back run and rate on three back and last start runs at course and distance when running well, but not getting close to the wins. Has the ability to run nicely again.
5. Angry Gee: Out the back and ran home well with top weight last start but was claiming. Big step up in grade and has to improve again.
6. Royal Spinner: Finally got a win for the stable going to the country last start. Good run 2nd to Smart Dart the run prior, but this is another level again today.
7. Lady Esprit: Mapped perfectly and was suited on the day last start at course and distance. Will get a nice smooth run again today.
8. Appalachian Annie: Gone backwards class wise the past two preps. Hard to have.
9. Manolo Blahniq: Been running in much harder races all his life after winning a 2YO-G3 on a soft track. Ran nicely 2.8L 5th to Flying Artie last prep over the 1200m at Caulfield from the back. Swooper.
Comments: Several key chances in the race and while that may be the case, I can't ignore the best rating horses in Crystal Dreamer. The price on offer today is more than good enough to have another play.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 7, 9
Strategy: Crystal Dreamer – 1.75 units @ $4.60 to win.
Moonee Valley Race 8 – 1200m – Sandwich Chefs Handicap
1. It is Written: Back to BM-90 grade last start and finally scored a win after a very long time of running places. Same weight today with the claim and from barrier 1 will be ridden for luck as always. Up to 1200m only disadvantage i see.
2. Smart Dart: Continues to run well this prep going close on all occasions. Back in class here and very well weighted. Maps awkwardly a big negative.
3. Lonrockstar: Didn't show much the two runs in this prep and the trainer didn't want the horse to be running last start by all accounts. Back in grade and goes well enough at the track.
4. Kievann: Every chance on speed last start at course and distance and just didn't find enough. Shadow of his former self to be honest. Take on.
5. Exclusive Lass: Strong run 2nd two back behind Smart Dart and maps perfectly from the barrier. Ignore last start. Has won here before.
6. Rock 'n' Gold: Goes well at this track but doesn't win often. Back in class here but has to improve again.
7. Bon Rocket: Unlucky 2nd two back at Flemington before beaten 1.5L 4th behind Crystal Dreamer at Caulfield. Up in class again today and has to improve onwards and upwards, but has the ability.
8. Devils Pinch: Two runs this prep and both were nice runs in easier company beaten 0.1L and 0.3L. Has to improve onwards and upwards again but is well in at the weights. Barrier the only issue today
9. Spirit or Lager: Awkward barrier but should get an okay spot. Ran Thursday night so every chance they don't back up here. Has to improve.
Comments: This appears to be a very even and low grade race overall. It Is Written and Kievann will be on the speed while Devils Pinch will try and come over. Bon Rocket looks to be the best rated horse in the race from a good barrier sitting midfield and with just 54kg looks a great e/w bet.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 6, 7, 8
Strategy: Bon Rocket – 1.25 units Each-Way @ $6/$2.20
Moonee Valley Race 9 – 1200m – Jacob Schweppe Handicap
1. Andrassy: A very good horse on her day, she won four runs back in F&M grade and ran a close 1.4L 4th in Group 3 mares grade the next start at Caulfield. One start for one win at this course and goes well first up. Respect.
2. Shades of Bella: Second up off a very poor run first up. Goes okay second up and goes okay at the track but needs to improve significantly on that first up run.
3. Chiavari: Doesn't win out of turn and hasn't exactly made the grade recently in this class. Best on a wetter track. Not good enough on last two runs.
4. Prussian Vixen: Sensational win last start at Caulfield over the 1100m distance from start to finish leading as our best bet of the day. Finished off strongly on that occasion and there is no reason why she can't go on with it here. Big chance.
5. Must be Mink: Looks a very nice type and has run well in the past. Maps to ride for luck. Only query for mine is the horses very best has been over further.
6. Cheeky Babe: Continues to run well this prep either winning or going very close. First time up to this grade and has to improve again.
7. Mossin' Around: Not the same horse we saw test some very good types two preps back. Hard to suggest here.
8. Ameristralia: Given a nothing ride last start off a slow speed out front when 3-wide the trip. Should slot in easier today from the barrier and looks well in at the weights.
9. Grey Street: Get back run on type. I thought her efforts first up were very sound and the extra 100m is key. Ride for luck and a win wouldn't be a total shock.
10. Sullivan Bay: On speed runner that will be pushing them along out front. Nice win last start at course and distance from on speed.
11. Magna Rossa: Disappointing run last start fairly beaten down the straight after a 2nd to Lyuba. Others preferred.
12. Winspot: Beaten fairly last start behind Sullivan Bay. Others preferred in this grade.
13. Powerful Story: Ignore last start. Rate on previous runs where she has the ability to run well and go close from the barrier from a more forward position.
Comments: Wide way home in the Quaddie. Ameristralia the one to beat clearly while Sullivan Bay will be hard to get past from on speed setting a solid clip.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 4, 6, 8, 9, 10, 13
Strategy: Back both Ameristralia and Sullivan Bay.
Randwick Race 6
King's Officer should have won last start with a better ride. Up 200m today and T Berry onboard, there will be more than enough give in this Randwick track and most importantly, a track that will suit this talented horse roll into the race around the turn and finish off strongly over the top.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: King's Officer – 1 unit Each-Way @ $9/$2.70
