Welcome to the form guide for Moonee Valley on 2 June 2018. Winter is upon us and that means we start heading back to the quality Moonee Valley surface on regular occasions. The rail stays in the true on what has been a track that received a large amount of water in the week – we should start on a Good 4. There is no rain expected and low winds around. I will be moving my racing information in a few weeks time over to www.themailbag.com.au so please feel free to start reading the previews there from now on.
Moonee Valley Race 1 – 1200m – Dominant Homecare Products Handicap
1. Anjana: The real deal? 6L winner on Heavy 8 last start at Ballarat. Times suggest this is a very promising type.
2. Embrace Me: Nice enough type. Won on Soft 7 last start at Werribee by over 2 lengths. Going well enough but has to improve again.
4. Cosmic Ruby: No luck first run at Sandown and finished off well enough. Respect and forgive first run.
5. Gregorian Chant: Trialed well on lead in here and looks an interesting type on breeding. Any market movement will give you more information.
7. She’s Sensational: No public trials. Stable like this horse.
8. Threeood: Terrible form lines on lead in here but going around for a stable that is getting them right. Hard to have on last start effort.
10. Goldifox: Barrier trial winner last start and comes out of a decent 2yo MM race last start. Change of stables and environment couldn’t hurt.
Top Chances: Anjana
High Chances: Cosmic Ruby, She’s Sensational
Medium Chances: Gregorian Chant, Embrace Me
Low Chances: Goldifox
Very Low Chances: Threeood
Expected Speed: Embrace Me looks the likely type to push on with the tempo from -3L below benchmark to 3L above benchmark early.
Comments: Anjana maps for a peach of a run 1 back the rails and will be suited to the bone by the tempo here. Cosmic Ruby looks the main value in the race on the last start run that is being under-estimated.
Moonee Valley Race 2 – 1200m – Bernadette Turner Handicap
1. William Thomas: Strong last start win and has won 3 of last 4 races. Suited staying at 1200m and maps ideally.
2. Bel Sonic: Nice trial between runs. Hi the line strongly first up when 2nd to Exceltara. Last win at course and distance was strong. First up run was better.
5. Huge Action: BM-64 grade winner on the lead in after a respectable 3rd behind William Thomas the run prior. Can improve.
6. I Am Someone: Strong win last start over 1050m at Morphetville. 3 weeks between runs and looks the type for this. Big chance.
7. Lagerfeld: Maher yard running – last start winner in BM-64. Needs to improve significantly on times.
8. Streets of Avalon: Nice enough type. Failed last start and also previous start the concern. On best three back more than good enough to run on.
9. Camila Lucinda: Disappointed last start at Cranbourne and big jump in class again. Hard to suggest this horse is going well enough to win?
10. Crystal Spirit: Looked a nice type in this grade last prep with close 2nds at Caulfield and also Flemington on the record. At his best, he goes well here.
11. Street Sheik: Well backed last start in strong grade at Caulfield over 1600m when sat on a very strong tempo and kept on finding to the line to run third. Barrier trial between runs and goes 1600m back to 1200m. Goes well enough at distances.
12. Spirit of Aquada: Never far off a win according to previous form. Won a trial by 2L on lead in, but this is a big step up in grade on previous form – has the ability to make the leap.
13. Usain Bowler: Maiden winner – times average at best – hard to suggest.
Top Chances: I Am Someone,
High Chances: William Thomas, Bel Sonic, Street Sheik
Medium Chances: Spirit of Aquada, Crystal Spirit, Streets of Avalon
Low Chances: Huge Action, Lagerfeld,
Very Low Chances: Usain Bowler, Camila Lucinda
Expected Speed: Early tempo of -2L below benchmark all the way up to 5L above benchmark.
Comments: A few interesting types here. I Am Someone will be hard to run down from on speed and will be well backed late on the day. Streets of Avalon looks to be the value of the race – forgive last two runs. William Thomas maps for the ideal run just off the leader while Bel Sonic is the horse with the last shot at them in the final 100m from the back.
Moonee Valley Race 3 – 1200m – Ladbrokes Back Yourself Handicap
1. Hear The Chant: Last start winner with relative ease on a soft surface and maps for the ideal spot in run here. Goes well off any tempo – versitile horse – big chance.
2. Sullivan Bay: For mine, not ridden to the horses best qualities last start (strong tempo early and late) and now gets a weight turnaround on HTC. Back up in distance and is the likely leader.
3. Creativity: Group 3 6th last start in Adelaide coming off a very successful first up win at Caulfield. Failed to handle the surface in any way it appears and didn’t let down – horse is better than that and very well suited here.
4. Baby Don’t Cry: Trial winner on lead in. Likes all surfaces but really enjoys wetter than what we get here. Hard to suggest a win here first up.
5. Divine Quality: Strong 2nd behind Creativity two back and then last start fairly beaten down the straight in a slowly run race at Flemington.
Race shape has been against the past two starts – could finally be run to suit today.
7. Moonlites Choice: Weir runner first up for nearly a year. Trialed very well on lead in. Open class winner last prep at Caulfield and placed at Flemington. If forward in yard have to consider strongly.
8. Moonlover: Been going around in easier resulting races than this in the past and falling short. 4th up should be ready – now or never race?
9. Run Gypsy Run: Horrible drifter last start and absolutely rattled home when not ready from the yard to win. Ideally suited here outside of the barrier.
10. World of Hope: Blocked for runs first up but no real excuses. Looking for a strongly run race and will find it here. Just never suited first up by race shape.
11. Arties Dreamwinner: Heavy 10 track winner on lead in BM-64 grade race. Times well below anything needed to measure up here. Take on.
12. Jocasta: Not suited last start on a Heavy track at Ballarat when slow away, bad spot but still ran on well. Step up in grade here the issue – horse is well.
Top Chances: Creativity
High Chances: Run Gypsy Run, Divine Quality
Medium Chances: Hear The Chant, Moonlites Choice, Sullivan Bay, World of Hope, Jocasta
Low Chances: Moonlover, Arties Dreamwinner
Very Low Chances: Baby Don’t Cry
Expected Speed: Speed is in the hands of Sullivan Bay here – could be anywhere from 2L above benchmark to 8L above benchmark early.
Comments: Expect the speed to be on. Creativity is the horse to beat well back in grade here and better suited. Run Gypsy Run has an awkward map but is the big improver here and over the correct odds. Divine Quality once again maps awkwardly but has to be considered while World of Hope and Jocasta are not legless at odds from out the back.
Moonee Valley Race 4 – 1000m – Dominant MVRC Partnership – BM-78
1. Murphy’s Reward: Big weight, wide barrier, tough ask for Lachy King to get an economical run. Horse is obviously flying and back in class here – but hasn’t won the past 7 runs. Go well.
3. You’ve Been Had: Two starts this prep for two wins. Hasn’t beaten much on either occasion but times run have been respectable. Go forward from wide – could potentially be 3-4 wide the trip.
4. Belwazi: Go forward type. Trialed well on lead in. Likes this track. First up (2 from 2 firs tup in past) and in the right type of class. Hasn’t run the times needed recently to suggest though is the issue – has to go to a new level.
5. Wind Force: Very good type and Inn Keeper form is good form. Best from last prep can win this and horses map isn’t too negative.
7. Sam’s Image: Led them around at a brutal tempo last start at Caulfield and smashed a very good group of horses. Repeat of those times is group class and impossible to run down here is rail is fine. Horses consistency an issue.
9. Our Gladiator: Failed to fire the past three runs in similar or harder company. Wasn’t terrible two back but horse clearly has to improve back to levels shown 4 back at Caulfield. Can go well with chop onboard – not a $61+ chance.
10. Appalachian Annie: Doesn’t win out of turn (very rarely) this horse. Step up in grade from last win as well and new stable last prep. Had 3 runs this prep and two back run was good in easier than this. Just simply has to improve.
11. Tuscany Hero: Went the right way about it with a win last start at Ballarat, but this is a big jump in grade. Not convinced the horse can improve enough to be competitive.
12. Canelo: First up for 183 days. Las twin at Benalla and before that Donald. Not a city class horse on form.
13. Balancing Act: Trial winner on lead in and Currie onboard for Stanley. Been up a long time this prep with little racing between trials. Went close in this type of grade. Handles track.
14. Lauchetti: Changed stable end of last prep. First up this prep no match for a few good types. Has to improve here.
15. Strykinglee: Just missed first up this prep at Sandown in a slowly run race from just off the speed. Beaten by a real cat as well. Ended last prep with a close 3rd at Flemington. Is right in this class. Loves speed on.
16. Keano Town: Ran very well in city grade the past two starts from on speed. Suited by most tempos and will keep sticking on. Hard to not find at least one to run past her.
17. Saxophone: Mildura winner in BM-58 grade last start. Well below this level.
18. Baltic Amber: Bool winner nearly 300 days ago. Never run time in the past.
Top Chances: Sam’s Image
High Chances: Wind Force, Murphy’s Reward, You’ve Been Had, Our Gladiator, Strykinglee
Medium Chances: Belwazi, Tuscany Hero, Balancing Act, Keano Town
Low Chances: Appalachian Annie, Canelo, Lauchetti
Very Low Chances: Saxophone, Baltic Amber
Expected Speed: Wildly down to how fast Nolen allows Sam’s Image to run. Anywhere from 5L to 16L above benchmark early.
Comments: Speed on here. Sam’s Image should be almost impossible to run down from out front with a repeat of last start. Types like Windforce and Strykinglee look the types to do so if asked to. Pretty keen on Sam’s Image with a tick from the yard from Dicko.
Moonee Valley Race 5 – 1500m – Goodlife Essendon – BM-84
1. Typhoon Jolie: Disappointed last start down the straight when not fancied on the day. Previous start at the bool similar issue. Ran very very well three back at Caulfield on a Soft 6. If well in the yard hard to dismiss here.
2. Hectopascal: Just keeps finding ways to win this horse. Didn’t have to run overly strong times to win last start in easier grade at Sandown. Well suited again with Chops claim. Could get caught wide but should find cover.
4. Jamacian Rain: Smashed them on Heavy first up by 6L. Ended last prep in Group 3 grade at Flemington over 1400m and ran strong times. Looks the type for it.
5. Single Note: Nice enough win last start at Bendigo off a sit and sprint speed out front. Got away with it. Much harder here.
6. Violent Snow: Two runs this prep both horrbiel results. Hard to suggest off that form but best from the past would see the horse run well.
7. Fudged: Disappointed last two runs on lead in and has to over-come some pretty big turnarounds on horses to measure up here. Right jockey onboard to do so.
8. Miss Clooney: Close 2nd behind Single Note last start at Bendigo from off the speed. Previous run clsoe 2nd at Flemington off a hot tempo the run to rate this horse off – flying.
9. Champagne Cocktail: Winner two back at Pakenham. Failed last start. Horse hasn’t been running the times required to measure up here.
10. Evil Lil: Very good type. Too far back last start at Sandown off a less than perfect speed and rattled home for 2nd. Horse is flying and in the right kind of race as long as backmarkers can get home over the top. Jockey for it.
12. Street Spun: Got a long way back last start and could settle more forward today? Best is over further but ran very well over the 1400m first up. Respect at odds if well in yard.
13. Brueghelino: BM-58 winner three back. Couldn’t win significantly easier races last two starts. Not for me.
14. Ensuing: Nice win two back at Sandown in decent horse. Failed off a slow tempo last start though at Bendigo. Better suited – midfield at best?
Top Chances: Jamacian Rain
High Chances: Hectopascal, Typhoon Jolie, Evil Lil
Medium Chances: Miss Clooney, Single Note, Street Spun
Low Chances: Violent Snow, Fudged, Ensuing
Very Low Chances: Champagne Cocktail, Brueghelino
Expected Speed: Typhoon Jolie should ensure a reasonable tempo especially when you consider the horses best run this prep was off a 4.5L faster than benchmark early tempo. Predicting anywhere from 2L below benchmark up to 6L above benchmark early.
Comments: Typhoon Jolie at her best will be hard to run down here if the rail is reasonable/hot. Jamacian Rain maps for the run of the race and is clearly the horse to beat. Hectopascal and Evil Lil look the main dangers but either have the perfect maps.
Moonee Valley Race 6 – 1600m – Cafetto Kate O’Sullivan Mile – Open
1. Killarney Kid: Been trialing over the Hurdles. Has run well in the past first up over 1600m but last win in the past was a long time ago and over 2040m+.
2. Akavoroun: On speed last start at Flemington naturally led them around which wasn’t expected. Up to 1600m which is ideal – horse is going well and 3kg claim key here.
3. He or She: Not suited by wet track last start at Caulfield. Horse is ready to go and was last start. Now or never for the horses career for mine in this grade.
4. Jacquinot Bay: Old mate is still flying. Two very strong seconds in a row. Run down late last start. Suited here and nice weight.
5. Bondeiger: Returns for next prep after three wins last prep! Best over further.
6. Tarquin: Beat Boom Time two back and then failed to fire last start off a strong tempo at Flemington. No issues in stewards report. Has to be respected back in distance here.
7. Raw Impulse: 4th up today. Last two runs been below very best but did run 4th in a Group 3 on lead in at big odds. Expect to improve again here.
8. Riyadh: Absolutely suited by tempo last start as a get back run on type. Stays at distance and has to be respected.
9. Onpicalo: Not the worst run first up. Certainly has to improve and should here second up. Will be on speed here.
10. Magic Consol: Good win two back. Last start ran well but ran into a nice type and couldn’t grind down there. Maps well.
11. O’Lonera: First up here and trialled ok enough on lead in. Best runs over further in the past.
12. Sixties Groove: Weir import. Big future head. Best over further than this distance but should measure up. Best on wetter surfaces.
13. Rib Eye: Returned to form last start at Flemington with a close 2nd behind Moss N Dale. Back to best it appears now and has to be respected.
Top Chances: None
High Chances: Jacquinot Bay, Akavoroun, Tarquin, Magic Consol, Riyadh, Raw Impulse, Rib Eye, Sixties Groove
Medium Chances: He or She, Bondeiger, Onpicalo
Low Chances: Killarney Kid, O’Lonera
Very Low Chances: None
Expected Speed: Jacquinot Bay should lead them around with Onpicalo. Unknown speed 4L below benchmark to 4L above.
Comments: Very wide open race. No clear standout.
Moonee Valley Race 7 – 2040m – Dominant Martin Ralston Cup – Open
1. Lite’n In My Veins: Strong on speed run two back at Morphetville over the 1600m and beat Ken’s Dream who came out and won since.
Respectable 3rd behind Land of Plenty in Group 3 grade last start. 3kg claim here back in class here but up to 2000m.
2. Pilote D’Essai: Came back quite forward this prep and had two runs at 1400m. Straight up to 2000m here. Stable are keen – horse won Ballarat Cup and then 200k race at Pakenham last prep and 0.9L off Boom Time in the Mornington Cup. Good type.
3. Calderon: Three runs this prep and finally steps up to 2000m where showed best runs overseas. Hasn’t shown enough in Australia to suggest strongly.
4. Annus Mirabilis: Three trials on lead in for new stable. Best runs in the past over 2400-3200m. Short of best.
5. High Church: Looked suited last start but just didn’t finish off over the 2000m. Will be better for the run and Lane jumps on.
6. Observational: Hasn’t gone close all prep. Has won at this distance in fast time previously. If good enough can go well.
7. Grey Lion: Second up but a long time between runs. Best in past has been 2000m+ so obviously suited if anywhere near best. Melham back on.
8. Foundation: Change of stables from Hayes which for mine is a negative. First up 1600m too short. Last prep showed can go well enough 2000m….but does look a fresh type.
9. Snoano: Well backed last start and not suited by tempo and distance. Up in distance here will be much better suited. Don’t dismiss.
10. Magnapal: Not a horse you can really ever be with for consistency purposes. Best run two back was off a hot tempo over distance.
11. My Nordic Hero: Beaten a long way 2nd last start by Boom Time at Flemington. Times were very sound considering beaten by a Group 1 winner. Can go well.
12. The Willybe: Two runs this prep and beaten fairly on both occasions. Over further will get better but best needs further.
13. Prima: Kept on keeping on last start for 5th off the right tempo at Flemington, but just not going anywhere as good as well as previous preps over the distances. Struggle to suggest against these.
14. Four By Four: Got back and ran on strongly last start at Flemington in a race not even best suited to the horses abilities. Ready to fly home here and looks suited with the right runs.
16. Zilbiyr: Nice run 4th in easier grade last start behind Eclair Calling. Has the ability on past runs to measure up here.
17. Midas Man: Looks a step below these on form. Place at best?
Top Chances: Pilote D’Essai, Lite’n In My Veins
High Chances: Four By Four, Grey Lion
Medium Chances: My Nordic Hero, Snoano, High Church, Zilbiyr
Low Chances: Magnapal, Foundation, Observational, Prima, Midas Man
Very Low Chances: Annus Mirabilis, Calderon, The Willybe
Expected Speed: The Willybe and Prima expected to run them along out front anywhere from Benchmark to 6L above benchmark early.
Comments: Pilote D’Essai and Lite’n In My Veins the two standouts on form while Four by Four can improve onwards again here.
Moonee Valley Race 8 – 1600m – 3YO
1. Iconoclasm: Great type and won with ease the past two starts off different tempos. Chop keeps ride and from barrier should get the ideal run. Hard to beat.
2. Sircconi: Very strong on speed run with an easier than normal tempo last start a close 3rd behind Peaceful State. Harder here.
3. Gaulois: Godolphin runner first run here since Flemington Carnival last year. Two runs this prep in easier up in Sydney and been short of best. Last prep went close in Group class.
4. Masculino: Two runs beaten fairly by Iconoclasm. Hard to see turn around in form – low weight.
5. Snogging: Looked a good type winning very well two back. Last start at Magic Millions Group 2 didn’t finish off after drifting in betting. Better than that and back to 1600m.
6. Free Fly Too: Class 1 winner two back. 4th at course and distance last start fairly beaten but ran on ok enough setting top tempo.
7. Andaz: Short turnaround. Not suited last start. 1600m should be no issues. Ready to finish off strongly in a race.
11. Toorak Warrior: Bm-64 grade winner. Huge ask. Jump in class. Tough.
12. Woulda Thought So: Ran on very well for second last start behind Iconoclasm. Well enough weighted again and good barrier. Could sit further forward. Ideal.
13. Found Out: BM-64 grade winner. Not the worst runner two back when 8th at course and similar distance. Has to improve but has ability.
14. Mieszko: Strong 2nd at course and similar distance last start behind Barbeque. Maps poorly again which hurts – horse has ability.
15. Shenanigator: Lightly raced type. Failed to fire last start in similar grade. Hard to have.
16. Limekilns: Maiden winner. Tough to ask stepping up again.
17. King Kabuto: Two runs this prep – couldn’t even win a Class 1 or place last start in BM-64. Take on.
18. Scuba: BM-64 grade third last start. Hasn’t won in five runs this prep.
19. The Sledgehammer: Couldn’t win a maiden on lead in.
Top Chances: Iconoclasm
High Chances: Woulda Thought So, Andaz,
Medium Chances: Sircconi, Snogging, Gaulois, Mieszko
Low Chances: Masculino, Free Fly Too, Found Out
Very Low Chances: Toorak Warrior, Shenanigator, Limekilns, King Kabuto, Scuba, The Sledgehammer
Expected Speed: Sircooni expected to lead them around here – 2L below benchmark up to 6L above benchmark.
Comments: So much dead wood in this race with about 6 runners that shouldn’t even be getting a run. Iconoclasm is clearly the horse to beat. Woulda Thought So from a better spot in running today looks the main danger while the same can be said for Andaz if they push further forward.
Moonee Valley Race 9 – 1200m – WT Partnership – BM-90
1. Lord Da Vinci: Nice enough trial on lead in here today after a few months off. Great first up record. Nicely in with claim. Goes well here.
2. Camdus: Strong win first up over in Adelaide puttihng down a very solid time. Similar grade of race here and Chop will get the horse in a great spot. Will need luck in straight.
3. Ashlor: 30 days between runs. Continues to run well this prep including close 3rd two back at Caulfield. Best can compete here.
4. Sadaqa: First up here. Best runs in past over further but last prep competitive over 1200m.
5. Suspense: Two runs this prep but hasn’t gone close. Disappointed last start. Back in class here. Goes well at track. Maps ideally.
6. Leodoro: 35 days between runs. Disappointed last start so back to 1200m. Respectable form recently but hasn’t been closing off as well as in the past.
7. Proud Wolf: Doesn’t win out of turn. Strong trial and close 2nd behind Malibu Style last start. Solid times and horse is ready to fly here. Looks a massive price if they can fly over the top late here today.
8. Tildy Lad: Open grade winner in Adelaide last start with low weight. Times were okay but not great. Step up again here.
9. Inn Keeper: Smashed them last start at Caulfield when improved significantly again. Was ideally suited by the Soft track and a BIG query back to the dryer track here. Massive query on map.
10. Wise Hero: Failed on soft track last start. Back to dryer here and better off for the run. Expect large improvement.
11. Another Coldie: Failed to fire over the 1100m last start and 1200m shouldn’t suit much better. Trilled between runs.
13. Sir Donald: Nice type and ran a respectable 2nd last start behind Milwaukee – flew home – eye-catcher – well in here.
15. Little Bita Spunk: Outclassed here.
Top Chances: Camdus, Proud Wolf
High Chances: Wise Hero, Sir Donald, Lord Da Vinci, Inn Keeper
Medium Chances: Suspense, Ashlor, Tildy Lad
Low Chances: Leodoro, Sadaqa
Very Low Chances: Little Bita Spunk
Expected Speed: Not much speed in the race. Wise Hero and Littel Bita Spunk expected to lead at 4L below benchmark to 2L above early.
Comments: Looks very much a sit sprint type of race home. Camdus and Proud Wolf look very well in here and map perfectly – both have the closing speeds needed. Wise Hero and Inn Keeper are both obvious chances but short in the market. Sir Donald is the other blowout chance.
