Welcome to The Profits preview for Moonee Valley on 17 March 2017. It’s a big weekend of racing coming up with some strong races at Moonee Valley on Friday night and strong racing from Rosehill for Golden Slipper day and nice racing from Flemington – we will be looking at all three meetings. I had a great day over in Adelaide for the Cup on Monday and a big thanks to the loyal readers in the pink budgies punt club who treated us to some beers and banter on the day. Let’s hit the bookies hard this weekend and come out ahead at the end of it all. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 3 – Punt Club – 3.5 units @ $3.50 to win
Best Value
Moonee Valley Race 2 – Our Lucky Omens – 1 unit Each-Way @ $13/$3.10
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Moonee Valley Race 2 – 1600m – WT Patnership Handicap
1. Our Lucky Omens: 5.6L off Big Duke in the Launceston Cup running home well from the back into 5th. 2nd previous start in the Colac Cup in a very nice run. BM-64 grade winner with a big weight before that.
2. Strike the Stars: Rising 8YO gelding. Last prep failed over shorter distances in first two runs and didn’t run very well at Cranbourne over the 2500m either. Previous prep was hurdling. Not here.
3. Tuff Host: Hasn’t gone close to a win for a very long time since he jumped out of the ground and beat a top talent in Volcanic Ash. The harder they run the better he goes.
4. Fastnet Latina: Import that measured up his first two runs this prep over 1200m and 1400m. Step up again here to the 1600m and BM-70 but looks well enough suited.
5. Sniper: BM-70 3rd last start behind Miss Sydney who failed since over in Adelaide. Has to improve on very best but can run well.
6. Cosmic Song: BM-58 winner first up. Failed to get the win last start in BM-70 but ran much better than expected. Has to improve again though.
7. My Obsession: Been up a long time and hasn’t won the past 10 starts. Not bad last start at Pakenham but defeated fairly. Three back at Moonee Valley ran nicely for 2nd behind Zasorceress. Going nicely.
8. I Am the Rock: Maiden winner first up. Fairly beaten last start. Struggle to suggest in this grade.
Comments: This is certainly a very winnable race and on paper there looks to be some very strong value in the price on offer for Our Lucky Omens. The horse is flying and I really feel the step back to 1600m is ideal based on the best run over 2000m two back for this ex Hong Kong multiple winner.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Our Lucky Omens – 1 unit Each-Way @ $13/$3.10.
Moonee Valley Race 3 – 955m – Inglis 55 Second Challenge Heat 15
1. Secret Blend: Measured up last prep over the 1100m and 1200m distances deeper into prep. Won over 1000m in the past also. Measured up to city grade and has placed at Flemington in the past. Clearly has the ability to run well and maps nicely from the inside barrier.
2. Aunty Mo: Ran nicely first up behind Pretty Possum and Lady Esprit when well backed. Previous prep measured up to win multiple times in similar grades over 955m. Maps much further forward today for a better run and will be hard to beat.
3. Snappy Esprit: Led first up ahead of Dance with Fontein and Punt Club in a strong tempo and the first up run showed late when he fell out of it in the straight after looking a good chance. Showed massive improvement last start when 3rd behind Heatherly and Lady Esprit. Has the ability.
4. Punt Club: Ridden poorly last start when gave up the on speed position and it cost the horse the race. Back to 955m today and Lane back onboard. Has trialed between runs and ran very well. Should kick up from the inside.
5. Appalachian Annie: Will be on speed once again. Up in class and down to 955m again. Fairly beaten two back by Punt Club. Weighted to be in it again.
6. Reine Happy: First up for 200+ days. Best runs have been on wetter surfaces. Did get a BM-70 win over some okay types first up last prep over 1200m. First time over the 955m.
7. Arizona Wildcat: Won 3 of last 4 including BM-70 grade races the last two over 1000m and 1050m in Adelaide. 52kg brings her in well at the weights with the claim. Will be most likely 3 back on the outside and coming home late.
8. Atunnah Courage: Never won on a Good track. heavy track horse in easier grade. No thanks.
Comments: Aunty Mo has the ability to win this but the last 100m of her race didn’t prove enough for me to be on her here. Snappy Esprit improved significantly at Flemington last start also but i can’t see the extra needed today to get past the favourite. Secret Blend is a bit of an unknown from the back of the field today and looks the main danger at odds. Appalachian Annie is a non winner and i have to take it on again. Punt Club looks a great bet tonight from barrier 4 with D Lane to get us the lead and to go all the way.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Punt Club – 3.5 units @ $3.50 to win
Moonee Valley Race 6 – 1200m – Sweeney Estate Agents Abell Stakes
1. Fast ‘n’ Rocking: Group 1 placed last prep over 1400m. Group placed over 1200m. First up didn’t show a lot and finished last also over 1400m last start. Needs to improve here.
2. Hi World: First up here over the unsuitable 1200m. Never run at this distance ever and best runs have always been over further. Struggle to suggest.
3. Reldas: Plain at very best first up over the 1000m. Up to 1200m and will have more of a dash today. Blinkers are on but clearly has to be at his very best.
4. Santa Ana Lane: First up today and blinkers off to allow to settle better today. Goes well first up and looks well sutied here over the 1200m.
5. Lord Durante: Old mate is first up today and simply needs the run and further. Take on.
6. Well Sprung: Strong win second up down the Flemington straight in solid time. Up in weights again but still finds himself well enough in here. Has won at track in the past. Maps awkwardly from the barrier only concern.
7. Demonstrate: Smashed some very strong fields last prep including a Flemington race over 1400m. Clearly has the class and was beaten first up last prep over 1000m by Hellbent. Goes well at this track also. Maps off them midfield perfectly from a good barrier.
8. It Is Written: Going horrible at the moment. Was terrible the past three starts after a win at course over 1000m. Struggle to suggest.
9. Sebring Sun: Proved to be a nice type in easier company last prep and even measured up behind Keen Array and Illustrious Lad. Finished the prep lame though. First up well beaten at Morphetville over 1100m. Has to improve.
10. Bassett: Smashed them first up in much easier grade from off the speed. Didn’t beat much on the day but it was a huge win. has always shown ability but he may have turned the corner?
11. Bullrush: Hawkes runner. First up in Sydney ran okay but looked no match for them. Huge jump in class though makes it hard to suggest here even with good record at distance.
Comments: Fast ‘n’ Rocking is the class runner but has shown nothing all prep. Well Sprung is a good horse but maps poorly for mine. Santa Ana Lane should run well but is under the right odds. Demonstrate looks very well suited at the right price while Bassett looks a strong chance also off a very good win last start.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Back Demonstrate @ $4.20 and Bassett @ $7.00.
Moonee Valley Race 7 – 2040m – William Hill Alister Clark Stakes
1. Farson: Three wins in a row going up in distance along the way and skipped the guineas to run in this over 2000m. Bombproof based on the past few starts and hard to see any of them improving past him. Leader.
2. Cliff Hanger: Run of the race last start 1 out 1 back behind Farson and had every chance on the day. Was no match even in 2nd. Has to improve lengths to win. Place chance.
3. Rushven: Couldn’t beat I Boogi last start which is a little disappointing. G2 placed last prep behind Morton’s Folk and first up wasn’t bad over 1400m. Will appreciate the distance and looks a top chance if any are to test the favourite.
4. Hardham: Two runs this prep and found very little last start on heavy. Previous start was last and battled home okay enough for 6th in the CS Hayes. Obviously has ability but from the barrier will get a tough run again today.
5. Sunday Pray: Strong CL1 winner over 1500m heading into this after a decent run 2nd to Comic Set before that. Has to improve up to this distance.
6. Captain Rhett: Maiden. Ran very well from out the back last start at Caulfield behind Farson in 3rd. Will sit closer to speed and ride for luck today.. Has to obviously improve but has shown the ability to measure up.
7. Arctic Flow: Won two of last three races including BM-64 over 1900m last start. Time was average at best on the day. Struggle to suggest.
8. Electric Charlie: Last two starts fairly beaten behind Farson but battled home nicely on both occasions. Trial in between runs. Can place but not convinced he is the winner.
9. Lynch Mob: Couldn’t win a maiden heading into this over 1600m. Certainly looks to be a nice enough type to run well but I can’t have to win this, even if the McEvoy stable are wizards.
10. Parthesia: Ran a blinding race in the Tasmanian Oaks beating some very good types in Hot Dipped and Wheal Leisure. Don’t dismiss on any previous runs… will be far back in race but has the ability.
11. Miss Strathallan: Strong win two back at Pakenham in maiden class beating Captain Rhett by lengths on that day before a respectable 4th flying home late last start. Slightly better barrier today but expected to go back again. Has the ability to run well.
12. Manning Road: Huge win two back in maiden class but fairly beaten in BM-64 grade last start. Struggle to suggest.
Comments: Farson is the clear favourite for a reason, he is the horse to beat. Rushven can run better today but I have to take the horse on at the odds. Parthesia looks well in here and well over the odds while Miss Strathallan can come around the field and run well also.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Farson to win. Small bet on Parthesia also.
