Welcome to The Profits preview from Moonee Valley on 17 June 2017. The rail moves out to 3m and we get the ideal track where on pacers can win while also providing those sitting off the speed with every shot as well. It is also expected that irrigation lanes will be in play today 1m and 3m off the rail with horses likely to be directed into the tyre marks at least early on in the races giving an advantage to those first into those lanes. I will be on course as always watching them from the yard and look forward to providing you with my thoughts on twitter. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 3 – Miss Vista – 3 units @ $4.00. Zara Bay – 1 unit @ $4.20.
Next Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 7 – Goodwood Zodiac – 2 units Each-Way @ $9/$3.00
Other Bet
Moonee Valley Race 1 – Zelsignoret – 1 unit Each-Way @ $8.50/$3.10
Moonee Valley Race 8 – Rhythm to Spare – 1.25 units @ $5.50 to win. Onpicalo – 1 unit @ $17 to win.
Moonee Valley Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 4, 5, 6
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 3, 8, 11, 13
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 4, 6, 8, 14
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 4, 8, 12, 17
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
If you prefer to hear the race by race thoughts with a bit more detail on runners i like, then watch the video below
Moonee Valley Race 1 – 1200m – Friends of Epworth Handicap
2. Elle Street: Maiden winner at Wangaratta first up on a soft track from a midfield position. Time of the race wasn’t overly convincing of huge talent but 1100m up to 1200m and back to firmer could work.
3. Josephine Sea: Nice win at Sale first up over 1100m in similar grade on a soft 5. Up to the top level last start started well backed in the market but was well beaten on the day by two good types in Cliffs Edge and Lone Eagle. Has to improve on that effort.
4. Behave: Out the back and ran on very well last start at course and distance. Gets a nice position in running from the barrier as long as they kick up correctly and hold off the fence. Will be running on very well late.
6. Zelsignoret: Weir runner. Not bad first up but won well at Seymour on a Soft 5 running home well late. Better barrier today and up to 1200m should be ideal. The form out of the first up maiden loss has measured up very well with first and second winning well in harder company the next starts.
7. Gramercy: Hasn’t looked the best on the previous trials runs. Hard to suggest.
8. Pure Emotion: Had her chances first up but just couldn’t hold out No Reward on the day. Harder here and has to improve. Was 1.75L 2nd to Tulip last prep at course over 1000m so has to be considered.
9. Speak Softly: Placed first up at Pakenham behind Bella Vella on a Heavy 9. Should be suited back to the Good track and up to 1200m but will need to be much harder.
11. Truly Discreet: Failed to fire a punch first up at Ballarat getting back and running on. This looks a big step up.
12. Hinchin Time: Heavy track 4th to behind her prep. Hard to tell if she has talent, but she wasn’t backed first up.
13. Magic Mila: Two runs this prep and beaten over 7 lengths on both occasions. Hard to consider.
Comments: Expect them to back Behave here today off the good run last start and Speak Softly has a few claims on what is being suggested about the horse.. but there is a clear standout on what i’ve seen in Zelsignoret here today. The horse comes in with some top quality form lines and maps for a perfect spot in running. Looks a top type.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Zelsignoret – 1 unit @ $8.50/$3.10
Moonee Valley Race 2 – 1000m – 3YO Fillies Bidfood Handicap
1. If Not Now When: Been running well in this grade recently and the Snitty Kitty form has been backed up with the horse winning up in Queensland since. Got too far back from a poor barrier last start at Morphetville in a 16 horse race and from barrier 5 is expected to sit 5 pairs back on the outside and get the ideal run into the race. First time at track only issue with high weight.
2. Soviet Secret: Measured up in G3 grade at Flemington and Randwick in the past behind some very nice types in Missrock and Prompt Response etc. Last prep went and got her maiden win and has had two runs this prep without impressing. 50 day freshen up.. best has been seen on wetter but clearly can run well here on a Good track.
3. A Sterling Dash: BM-58 runner first up. Fairly beaten next two starts in much easier than this. Has to improve here to place, even if she is back to 3YO grade.
4. Miss Vesper: FM 58 winner first up this prep at Seymour and then fairly beaten down the straight at Flemington last start in easier. Has ability but clearly has to improve on what we have seen to date.
5. Airino: Maiden winner to end last prep. Terrible first up in similar grade before going back to BM-64 grade and winning well at Pakenham. Not terrible 2nd last start at Pakenham but has to improve.
6. Ariaz: Three runs this prep and hasn’t gotten within 1.5L of a win. Step up required here.
7. Mrs Martin: Nice enough win in much much easier grade last start at Geelong on the synthetic. Previous form average at best.
8. Our Gladiator: Had her chances first up when well backed at Geelong and didn’t run well at all. Better expected today but I struggle to suggest it.
9. Unique Lovely: Swan Hill maiden winner by a good margin in a good time. Placed in 3YF-SWP class down the Flemington straight in the past. Respect. Very well weighted and maps nicely.
10. Frock ‘n’ Bling: Low price purchase and no public trials. Market only guide. There is a Cranbourne jump out vision going around and made the horse look decent enough.. but no idea what it was racing against on the day.
11. She’s a Pluck: Maiden winner last start on a Soft 5 track. Didn’t have to beat too much at Moe but it wasn’t a bad effort. Think she has to improve significantly again here though.
12. Isere: Couldn’t win a maiden heading into these… not been within 4L of a win. No.
Comments: Not overly confident in betting into anything in this race. If Not Now When is clearly one of the best horses and deserves to be favourite… while Unique Lovely is weighted to win.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Back both If Not Now When and Unique Lovely.
Moonee Valley Race 3 – 1000m – Zouki Handicap
2. Erin’s Element: Tasmanian horse that hasn’t been far off in harder company behind some of the best on offer in Tasmania. Three strong lead in runs suggest she is going well enough to feature. Get back run on type.
3. Miss Vista: Drawn wide again but has the ability to cross if pushed out appropriately. Stuck on when fairly beaten last start but still just kept finding to the line. With a more direct line to the finish today and C Williams onboard, and a dryer track, I’m expecting an improved run. Good enough.
4. Appalachian Annie: 1000m winner on the Synthetic back in class last start. Previous start at Sandown ran well behind Dance with Fntein and World of Hope but just missed. Obviously has ability and continues to run well around in these grade of races, but needs to improve here again.
5. Zara Bay: Always been a very well respected sprinter but has yet to blow me away on the track. Trialled well on heavy heading into this today and D Oliver takes the ride is a positive here. If she is fit and ready to fire, then she can measure up. Nice mapping.
6. Petite’s Reward: Goes okay first up and goes well at this track. Last prep failed to get a win and couldn’t beat types such as Appalachian Annie and Dance with Fontein home. Hard to suggest.
8. Daisy Downs: Won four in a row in much much much easier grades of races. Just keeps getting the job done but this is a huge ask.
10. Our Vidia: Measured up as a 2YO but failed to get through the grades last prep. Certainly has ability but huge ask first up.
11. Essense of Terror: Many runs this prep and best run was course and distance in easier when 3rd here over 1000m. Certainly gets back and runs on well but the past few runs don’t inspire confidence in this grade.
12. Keep Courting: Failed to get a win in easier grades of races all prep and in BM-64 two back failed to get within 2L of a win. Hard to suggest even a place here.
Comments: Miss Vista and Zara Bay are the standouts on form while Dance with Fontein seems to have the ability to measure up. The best of Miss Vista is more than good enough to win this race today and she has to be considered a clear top chance. Zara Bay trialled well heading into this and is the clear danger. Happy to win on Miss Vista while save on Zara Bay.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Moonee Valley Race 3 – Miss Vista – 3 units @ $4.00. Zara Bay – 1 unit @ $4.20.
Moonee Valley Race 4 – 1600m – Kane Constructions Handicap
1. Beluga Blue: Went around a short priced favourite last start at Morphetville and got the job done perfectly. Down in grade today and up in weight. Awkward mapping the only issue.
2. Every Faith: Out the back last start with top weight and ran on well but just didn’t have enough to claim them. Winner and 2nd covered significantly less ground. Claim onboard today and barrier 1 should see her back and running on well.
3. Have Another Glass: Ran very well back to 1500m last start but sitting so far back just didn’t have the burst needed and was in the wrong part of the track also. Positive jockey change today and i’ve got a feeling they will try and be on speed today like three back. Has to be considered.
4. Vandancer: Second up today after a ‘decent’ run behind Have another glass and a few others at Morphetville when fairly beaten. Back to 1600m but probably shown best in past over further.
5. Violent Snow: Got the race run to suit last start at course over 1500m and has been punished at the weights. Type of horse that doesn’t win out of turn and while she is going well this is much harder.
6. Noela’s Choice: Huge disappointment last start at Sandown. Didn’t go poorly in the Wangoom. Trialled average at best to keep fit.. just not sure she is going well enough to consider here.
7. Stylish Miss: Well backed at the Bool on a heavy track and got the win over some average types. Stepped up to much harder last start and ran okay but wasn’t in the race. Hard to suggest here.
8. Dulverton: Threw the jockey two back at course and similar distance and then last start went back to last and ran home well without getting close. Has to improve and will be going back from the barrier… but looks tough at the weights for mine.
9. Mamzelle Tess: Won three in a row and looks well suited here today. Would prefer softer, but maps fine today and has had 30 days to train on. Respect her ability.
11. Soho Ruby: Pedrena form has been holding up in recent weeks and she comes into this well today. Expected to take a sit but a spot on speed wouldn’t surprise either. Respect.
Comments: Have Another Glass looks very well placed here with a jockey change onboard. I’m expecting they could push further forward today with a lack of solid tempo expected and if that happens, will be very hard to beat. Certainly a few dangers with Soho Ruby having solid form and Mamzelle Tess looking the real deal along with Every Faith.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Have Another Glass E/W
Moonee Valley Race 5 – 1200m – GLJ Facility Services Handicap
1. Reldas: Been running some blinders this prep. 2nd up ran 2nd to Basset at course and distance before going on and running 0.1L 2nd in G3 comapny at Morphetville. Always runs well here and 1200m is his jam. Respect.
2. Lord da Vinci: Top grade Tasmanian sprinter that has form around Hellova Street and Admiral. Best runs have been on softer tracks in the past but handles Good tracks just fine. The harder they go the better his chances.
3. Ruettiger: Well backed first up but failed to fire a shot. Still not at his peak according to stable but expecting much better.
4. Military Reign: Ran horrible first up over the 1000m at Flemington. Will be MUCH better suited today back to 1200m and around a bend. Expected to get a lead to suit.
5. Whistle Baby: Won strongly last start at course and distance. Harder company here but clearly going very well.
6. Fast Cash: Failed to fire a punch for three runs but then flew home last start off a very hot tempo at Caulfield. Looking for the tempo to be on but i’m not sure that’s on here. Very well weighted.
7. Onerous: Always been a well appreciated and backed type for the Hawkes stable, but has failed to measure up to listed grade in the past. Was horrible first up.
8. Camdus: Well backed last start at Moonee Valley and covered ground to win well. Was a nice form race to win and can improve onwards at the low weight. Barrier only concern.
9. Del Prado: Average at best first up and beaten 4L behind Camdus. Very hard to see the reversal in form to win this.
10. Can’t Refuse: Terrible first up behind Camdus and can’t see running a place here at the weights. Poorly weighted.
Comments: Very wide open race with a lot of classy runners. Reldas brings some strong G3 form while Lord Da Vincis form is also Group level. Ruettiger in the past has shown group level form while Military Reign brings it over from WA. Whistle Baby and Fast Cash have run very well heading into this and so has Camdus. Wide open race as represented by the market. Hard to bet into this one for mine.
Confidence 50%
Strategy: Reldas to win.
Moonee Valley Race 6 – 1200m – Epworth Medical Imaging Handicap
2. Revolving Door: Last prep measured up with a 2nd in the Guineas Prelude behind Sacred Elixir. Best runs have been over further than this though but i’d still expect a very solid run.
3. Yu Long Sheng Hui: Heavy 9 winner first up in BM-70 class. As a 2YO looked a good type winning at Caulfield 3-wide no cover, but two runs last prep were horrible. Hard one to judge.
4. Highland Beat: All three runs this prep were forgive runs. Much better barrier today in 5 to get a more forward position and expect them to not ride him for luck here. Williams retains the ride and this looks his race at the weights.
5. Terindah: Wide no cover last start and covered a lot of ground when finished off okay for 6th. Weighted okay again today and barrier 3 will see him get a nice spot in run.
6. Liberty Song: Went forward last start and sat on speed with a low weight and saw the race out very well just missing. Comes into this race very well in at the weights again and should find a way over outside the leader today with little trouble.
7. Mystified: Covered a load of extra ground last start and could improve onwards today nicely in at the weights. Only query is how far back she will go again today from a poor barrier.
8. Go Public: CL1 winner heading into this. Not exactly the form I want to see here first up.
9. Special Diva: Horrible in G3 company to end last prep after going through the 3YO grades. This is her hardest test and it’s hard to suggest.
10. Palladian: Hasn’t gone close the past two starts in easier company. Hard to see the extra improvement here but does map well for a good run.
11. Toosbuy: Heavy maiden winner. Fairly beaten last start in much easier. Take on.
12. She’s Beneficial: Four runs this prep and hasn’t gone badly at all with a good run last start 2nd to Enigman. Has to improve though.
Comments: Not a race i’m overly confident to bet into and it will depend how they parade today. Highland Beat is the one with big improvement to come 4th up if Williams gives the right run today which I can see happening from the good barrier.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 4, 5, 6
Strategy: Highland Beat E/W
Moonee Valley Race 7 – 2040m – Silver Thomas Hanley Plate
1. Extra Zero: Huge run and win last start at Flemington. 12 runs for 0 wins on his career at this track suggests this is a hard task. Loves a brutal tempo and while Show a Star will get them to run along out front, I can’t see this being run fast enough.
2. Megablast: Well backed import. Handicap winner. 4th in a G1 last prep and 2nd in G2. Best distances do look further than this on form is the only query and never placed from 3 starts on good tracks. Very rare that I want to touch a NZ runner first up in Australia in the middle of a prep and at this track, that is certainly the case.
3. Longeron: Not the worst run last start beaten 7th by 2.3L at course and distance. They simply went too fast out front and took away his best assets which are solid sectionals the final 1000m. More suited today and will be fitter for the last start effort. Has to be considered.
4. Authoritarian: Two runs last prep beaten 15L and 15L. Two decent trials heading in today but clearly looking for further and wetter.
6. Rose of Virginia: Got the race run to suit last start with a huge tempo set out the front setting it up for this strong stayer to run well. Still found one too good. Has to run a peak run again.
8. Coldstone: Continues to run some very solid races without winning this prep. Placed all three attempts. Will go forward and sit just off the pace i’d imagine from the good barrier. Nicely weighted but best will be seen on stronger tempos than last few. Step up to 2040m looks ideal on form.
9. Show a Star: Got away with easy sectionals and then ran them home very fast at Flemington four back. Three runs since has been very fairly beaten on all occasions. Never placed from 2 attempts at this track.. was a good run last start on speed off the hot tempo, but doesn’t find the line very well late. Has to improve.
10. Black Tomahawk: Interesting type for the stable. Not the worst last start and will continue to improve onwards this prep. Others preferred on what we have seen so far.
11. Hursley: Ridden for luck last start at Moonee Valley and didn’t find much costing it the win. That’s what happens when you ride for luck instead of going wide! The stronger the tempo the better. Not sure this suits the horse today.
12. Mr Journeyman: Penola Cup winner two back. Not bad but fairly beaten last start in Mt Gambier cup behind Survived. Others preferred.
13. Goodwood Zodiac: Huge run first up over 1600m and MUCH better suited today up to 2040m. Covered 10 metres more than the winner last start and 19 metres more than second. This is a step up in class but he is in this up to his eyeballs. Maps to get a spot 1 out 2 back if everything goes to plan and will be able to get into the right lanes early enough to swoop. Big chance.
Comments: Certainly a large number of ‘chances’ in the race that you can’t discount which means we go wide in the Quaddie, but I am very keen on backing Goodwood Zodiac here today at the great each-way odds after the sensational run last start. Tick Tick Bloom is the horse that looks well over the odds today in the race and will continue to drift.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 3, 8, 11, 13
Strategy: Goodwood Zodiac – 2 units Each-Way @ $9/$3
Moonee Valley Race 8 – 1600m – William Hill Travis Harrison Cup
1. Amovatio: Waller runner that has been going around in much harder races and running well. Stays at 1600m today and is a get back run on type that is better suited by longer straights. Has the ability to clearly win.
2. Kenjorwood: Coming off a lameness issue but has had a sufficient amount of time between runs to get better. Rawiller back on is a big positive and maps to get a nice run today. If can jump well and position forward he has a big chance here.
3. Killarney Kid: Just a forgive run last start at Sandown and seems to be working well into this prep. Looks to be very well suited here and will run into the race late.
4. Rhythm to Spare: Smashed them two back at Caulfield in easier grade off a hot tempo out front and the form has figured out of that race. Next start ran fairly 3rd in Group 3 company behind Burning Front and Hooked but wasn’t as good that day for mine. Looks well suited in this race and weighted very well positioning just off the speed on the rails.
5. Jacquinot Bay: Been well below his best the past few runs for mine. Doesn’t always put in his best but is certainly always game when ridden on speed. If they run it along very fast that is what suits him and it looks that type of race today.
6. Onpicalo: Given a horrible ride last start when made not to lead and they just went way too slow for him. Maps to be on speed and if he repeats the two back run he is more than good enough to beat all these home.
7. God’s in Him: Ran very well two back in the Scone Cup behind Duca Valentinios before getting too far back last start and finding and finding to the line but not getting close at all. Has ability but race pattern looks against here.
8. Heart Starter: Strong Weir horse that has slowly been improving as he has been maturing into the prep. Will be much fitter today and is a watch from the yard. Up to 1600m and getting to the right distances to peak. From barrier 2 will get a very nice spot in running. Low weight.
9. Petrology: Continues to run well without winning and just keeps running into some very nice types. Will get the race run to suit but barrier 14 hurts chances.
10. Lord Durante: Old mate hasn’t shown anything this prep. Hard to suggest even if up to his very best.
11. Magic Consol: Looked horrible in the yard last start at Moonee Valley but ran very well to win an awkwardly run race. Saved a lot of ground compared to a few others. Has to be respected but I want to take on here from barrier.
12. First Course: Heavy 9 cup winner last prep but failed to impress on Good tracks. Hard to suggest here first up.
13. Mr Individual: Continues to be well backed. Had every chance last start off the slow tempo and just wasn’t good enough. Testing material today with a stronger tempo but even so, I couldn’t have.
14. Data Point: Has looked a nice type in the past and ran well but was fairly beaten behind Cannyescent at Sandown… better suited to a track that is longer than this one. A horse I just want to take on here.
Comments: Data Point for mine is a massive lay today. The horse looks so much better suited down a long straight and also coming off a soft run won’t be at it’s peak to win up in class. The speed will be on here and Onpicalo with the right ride on speed will be very well suited. Getting the gun run behind them will be Rhythm to Spare who looks ideally placed here. Happy to back both of them. Heart Starter obviously looks a big danger.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 4, 6, 8
Strategy: Rhythm to Spare – 1 unit @ $5.50 to win. Onpicalo – 1 unit @ $17 to win.
Moonee Valley Race 9 – 1200m – Embassy Print Solutions Handicap
1. Floral Fever: BM-78 winner at Swan Hill in nice fashion as a lead in here. Similar race rating but obviously much harder and dryer track. Has to improve again but not a lot.
3. Sullivan Bay: Won four back at Mornington from just off the speed in a nice time. Last three runs fairly beaten on each occasion. Has to improve.
4. Leodoro: Steps back in class today and looks ideally placed. Will need to get a good spot in running, but if he does he will be very hard to hold out based on previous runs. Hope to be 3-wide the trip with cover honestly.
5. Catch That Cat: Has won twice in the past at this track. Won well in similar grade first up before being fairly beaten last start at Swan Hill. Back in class and back to dryer but does need to improve again.
7. Septamore: Was backed last start at Morphetville and ran well enough out front but just couldn’t hold off some easier types than this today. Has to improve again here and won’t get it easy out front.
8. Sovereign Duke: Winner three back in easier grade. Failed to measure up two back at Sandown but last start in the Gold Topaz ran nicely for 4th. Does need to improve but at the weights has to be considered.
9. Star Stealer: Just can’t break through for a win this prep it seems but gets his chances here if good enough. Didn’t look great in the yard last start I believe at Sandown and didn’t run well. Previous start was very good from just off speed when 2nd to Chamois Road. Still, needs to improve.
11. Fire Agate: BM-70 winner at Cranbourne last start battling it out against Secretan. Clearly a big improvement needed to measure up once again today and the barrier doesn’t improve chances.
12. Niminypiminy: Held up last start at Moonee Valley and then ran home well late when finally got out. Up to 1200m and looks very well suited at big odds. Barrier hurts chances but will get a run into it.
14. Forbidden Kisses: Doomben horse now down here in Victoria. CL2 winner.. hard to see her measuring up straight away into this grade.
16. Makatiti: Didn’t run on Wednesday due to an issue pre-race which is never great for a run like this. Never won on a Good track from 9 starts an issue. Good type but has to improve.
17. Mr Optimistic: Flashed home last start from out last. Get back run on type that will be getting back again. Has to improve again.
Comments: Leodoro clearly the horse to beat. Maps beautifully and will have every chance back in this grade. Niminypiminy caught my eye last start and is big odds while Mr Optimistic is also a spec bet here
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 4, 8, 12, 17
Strategy: Betting on Leodoro while also smaller bets on Niminypiminy and Mr Optimistic
