Moonee Valley Form 17 February 2017

Welcome to The Profits preview for Moonee Valley on 17 February 2017. We are coming into this meeting off a very easy best bet win mid week to get us back on the straight and narrow. There are three very good bets on the card tonight including what is shaping up as my bet of the weekend. I’m super keen and believe the odds are well wrong for the race. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.

Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 6 – Northwest Passage – 3 units @ $6.00 to win. Master of Arts – 2 units @ $5.00 to win.

Best Value
Moonee Valley Race 8 – Andrassy – 1.5 units Each-Way @ $13/$3.45

Other Bet
Moonee Valley Race 2 – Punt Club – 1.25 units Each-Way @ $7.00/$2.20

Tools

Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet

Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.

Moonee Valley Race 2 – 1000m – Sweeney Real Estate Handicap
This is a race lacking in real speed today and it is an ideal race setup perfectly for those on speed, just how we like it. There’s no surprise that you may think i’d be with Dance with Fontein again today, but with how I see this race playing out and where the main swooping threats will be in the run, i’m having to side with Punt Club to go back to back tonight. Every chance Star Stealer is 3-wide the trip or well out the back and Manhattan Blues + Barthelona will be out the back also.

Confidence 80%
Strategy: Punt Club – 1.25 units Each-Way @ $7.00/$2.20

Moonee Valley Race 6 – 2500m – Advanced Mailing Solutions Torney Cup
1. Chance to Dance: Got the chocolates last start over 2400m at Caulfield from on speed in a leader controlled race but really didn’t run very well for mine. Up to 2500m no issues but clearly he has to improve onwards again to measure up here for mine. Top weight, take on.
2. Master of Arts: Sensational runs the past two starts at Flemington and was unlucky not to score last start. Step up to 2500m is ideal and will set him over the edge. Only issue is getting so far back in runs. Main threat.
3. Big Memory: Cat. Perfect ride outside of Chance to Dance last start and just threw away the race not wanting to go past and win! Much better weighted today but has to run better here and needs to want to win. Struggle to suggest.
4. Puccini: Been going horrible at very best since change of stable. Well beaten last two starts over shorter. Did run well four back behind Pilote d’Essai but that was months ago. Has to improve.
5. Kourkam: Lucky win IMO two back at Flemington and we saw his level last start. Below these especially at the current odds. Take on.
6. Lord Van Percy: Three back shows his very best runs and last start at Caulfield ran on very well from a bad position compared to the winners. Every chance he can go right past Chance to Dance and Big Memory today.
7. Dandy Gent: Not going well enough to suggest.
8. Northwest Passage: This is the horse to beat and they are giving us HUGE odds! 3YO stayer that will go onto bigger and better things. Katie Mallyon on a leader is a big bonus and this horse beat Life on the wire by 7.5L and 8 others over 2100m two runs back in Tasmnaia… Life on the wire measured up behind Hot Dipped beaten 0.1L this prep.. so it’s a great form line. Last start as a $1.10 favourite smashed it in over 2200m by 3.3L. Looks the only likely leader and will get an easy time out front. The one to beat.
9. Sweet Melody: DK weir stayer on the up. Fair behind Crocodile Rock two back at Sandown and then last start in much easier 0.4L winner. Has to improve to measure up here.

Comments: Very keen to bet here. Will be backing in Northwest Passage to get the job done for us from the front while the main danger will be Master of Arts hitting the line hard.
Confidence 95%
Strategy: Northwest Passage – 3 units @ $6.00. Master of Arts – 2 units @ $5.00.

Moonee Valley Race 8 – 1200m – Fisher & Paykel BM-84
This is a race lacking in leaders and late in the day at Moonee Valley we are primed to steal an easy lead and the win. The speed map suggests that from the barrier Andrassy has only one option, shoot out and lead… and who inside wants to lead? Turbo Miss? It hasn’t led in 5 runs and Easy Flyer hasn’t led in two runs… so will there be a speed battle? I don’t think so.

This gives us the perfect run out front with Andrassy who is a great price on the E/W.

Confidence 85%
Strategy: Andrassy – 1.5 units Each-Way @ $13/$3.45