Welcome to The Profits preview for Moonee Valley on 10 February 2017. We have looked over the card at Moonee Valley for the night and there are two clear standout races we are looking to bet into. With the key focus this week to put as much time as possible into Caulfield as well as launching the new website, we have decided just to cover the two main betting races. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 3 – Villa Rosa – 3 units @ $4.20 to win. I'm Too Hot – 2 units @ $6.00 to win.
Next Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 4 – Farson – 2.5 units @ $4.00 to win.
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Mooonee Valley Race 3 – 1000m – Adapt Australia
1. Canny Rocket: Weir stable horse that placed in 2Y-SWP at Randwick last prep. First up won easy enough in a low grade race over 975m at Swan Hill after changing from the Ryan stable. Went around 2nd favourite last start at Moonee Valley over the 955m and never traveled well the whole trip off the strong tempo. Found the line fine but not convinced the horse is suited at this track or distance today.
2. I'm Too Hot: Impressive winner first up and has always had a bit of an opinion around about this horse. Didn't really have to do too much work to get the on speed position and was allowed to set a solid final 600m pace against an average bunch of runners. Found strongly to the line also not even touched with the whip. Has ability.
3. Athena Lass: Group 3 placed last prep behind I Am A Star over the 1000m before failing the next two starts at this course over 1200m. First up did win well on a heavy track at course and distance. Obviously has ability and stable expect she is a good chance from on speed.
4. I Got Shivers: Camperdown winner after failing to finish off when had every chance first up at the bool for mine. Looks a lesser chance than a few better types.
6. Divertente: Webb runner that has been well beaten fairly the past two starts in harder company. For mine, this doesn't look easier though and she has to improve.
7. Villa Rosa: Impressive first up winner at Mornington pushed out lightly throughout. Gapped third on the day also. Will position just off the speed today and will be finishing off strongly. This looks a very good type.
8. Haafra Head: Weir runner that won fairly two back at Mornington in an average race and failed to fire last start down the straight at Flemington. Perhaps better suited at Moonee Valley, but doesn't look the stables top horse.
9. Monkey Magic: Maiden only winner. Beaten first up in open class at Balarat by 0.1L. Was obviously a strong run but barrier 13 today and D Oliver off certainly are negatives.
10. Creativity: Ran a very strong race at Flemington as a 2YO… but two runs since have been disappointing. Has drifted in the market and needs to be at her very best.
11. Sprung Dancing: First up today. Maiden winner and over 1200m ran 1.7L off the winners.. but last two runs of last prep were fails. Hard to suggest on what i've seen.
12. Flaming One: Last prep couldn't win maidens. First up and struggle here even from the barrier.
13. Kapara: Maiden winner at Moe before failing in a CL1 and BM-58 grade. No thanks.
Comments: This is a very strong race on paper for this grade of race and there certainly are some nice types that will progress to listed grade later this prep. I'm very keen on the Maher runner in Villa Rosa who I believe has a load of ability while I'm Too Hot is over the odds as well in the race.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Villa Rosa – 3 units @ $4.20 to win. I'm Too Hot – 2 units @ $6.00 to win.
Moonee Valley Race 4 – 1600m – Simpson Construction
1. Cliff Hanger: Nice enough win last start at Sandown over some decent types in open grade. Back to 3YO grade today but up in class. Oak Door form is solid enough and maps okay.
2. Farson: Sensational front running win last start at Caulfield beating a very solid field on the day. Only penalised 2.5kg today and looks the type to be suited by this Moonee Valley track today. Rates to win.
3. Seguna: Behind Cliff Hanger and Oak Door two back before going back to open grade BM-64 and getting an easy win over some average types. Clearly has ability but has to improve. Ride for luck.
4. Yulong Sheng Long: Every chance last start in BM-64 grade at Sandown but found one better in Cliff Hanger. Obviously better suited here at weights but will be getting back from the barrier.
6. Arctic Flow: 1400m maiden winner in slow time from off them at Ballarat. Maps okay enough from the inside draw but will need the right runs to measure up.
7. Baffert: Not the worst run last start in harder grade at Flemington when 5th behind Knowable. Back in class but still has to improve onwards from the poor barrier.
8. Electric Charlie: Disappointing run from off the speed last start at Flemington over the 1400m. Is wanting the 1600m+ and probably wants further. A repeat of the maiden win would see him run well today.
9. Given Evidence: Maiden winner from out the back last start. Has some nice closing speed but from the barrier will have to make up a load of ground. Tough ask.
11. Rising Red: Strange progression this prep. Won a 1600m maiden on heavy three back before being beaten in open grade 2000m and 2200m races. Back to 3YO grade and back to 1600m.
12. Tres: Too far back last start and finished off solidly for a close 2nd. Barrier 13 and the horses 'lack of early speed' according to Damian Lane, will find her well off the pace. Tough ask but has the ability.
13. Parallel World: 1400m winner two back at Cranbourne beating a nice type in Ridgway. Failed to fire last start though over-racing in much easier grade. Hard to suggest today.
14. Congressional: Two runs this prep well off the winners. Hard to suggest on current form.
15. Hyshem: 1600m maiden winner last start after a good run previous to that. Huge step up in class here.
16. King Kohei: Couldn't win a maiden. No thanks.
Comments: Very keen today on the Waterhouse runner in Farson. Looks the ideal type to win this race well, but to also progress onwards and measure up in the Australian Guineas.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Farson – 2.5 units @ $4.00 to win.
