Welcome to The Profits Melbourne Cup 2012 form. What an amazing day we have ahead of us. 10 races fill the card with some very large and tough fields. Expect the majority of the winners to be coming in at around the $7-$15 mark so as long as you win in two of the races for the day, you should be ahead. Derby Day was fairly poor for us and looking around the industry, not many had a great day. Onwards and upwards they say and let’s try and produce a massive day. As always, our information is simply out thoughts and should be combined with your own form! Good luck and happy punting.
*Racecard*
Download our one page PDF Racecard here.
Best Bet
Race 6 Medusa’s Miss
Next Best
Race 10 Snitsky
Best Value
Race 9 Too Many Reds
Race 7 Glencadam Gold
Best Lay
Race 5 Sistine Demon
Race 7 Maluckyday (to place)
Race 4 Mid Summer Music
Betting Specials
Betstar is offering double fixed odds for Group 1s from 8am in the morning. If you are new to Betstar, use the referral code 23703. With the fields today, you would be mad not to be using up the Double Fixed odds on offer.
Sportingbet and Luxbet are offering best exotics payouts on the meeting.
Sportsbet are paying four places for the Melbourne Cup.
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Flemington Race 1
Villa Verde: Great first up win at Caulfield and this looks to be a very winable race off that win. Hard to hold out.
Lady Lakshmi: Very average first up and happy to be against today.
Bella Latte: Very average trial form
Berning Affair: First start so watch the money markets to see if any comes for her.
Endless Summer: Good trial and looks progressive.
Itameri: Snowden yard target these types of races. Should run well with McEvoy on board.
Jennyfromtheblock: Watch the money for it.
New York Rain: Williams booked is normally a good sign.
Purrfect Choice: Unimpressive in trial.
Purrific: Won trial very strongly. Looks to be a top hope.
Romancingthestone: Blinkers may help today after poor trial.
Tens All Round: Won a trial and can go well from barrier 1.
Thiamandi: Looks to have some class after winning trial very well.
Thump: Strong trial form. Run well.
Write the Cheque: On trial no chance but could improve.
Confidence: 50%
Strategy: Unless you receive some very good mail, there are nine better races to bet in today.
Flemington Race 2
Twilighting: Showed big improvement last start at Seymour with a very strong run. Seems to be wanting the extra distance and from barrier 6 will be getting an easy run the whole trip. 60kg is the major issue and will need to produce a near career best run off the weights.
Shihabi: Won 4 from 4 all in very close finishes. Up in class again today and treated harshly by weights up 2.5kg. Distance no issue and barrier should suit. Can go forward or back which is important and Nolen has won on the horse. Needs to improve again.
Tai Tai Tess: Last two runs haven’t been up to standard and barrier 14 is a big issue. Horse has a load of ability but 1 win from 10 at class and never won or placed from 2 at the track are issues.
Model To Nite: Weighted harshly today. Run two back at Moonee Valley was solid but doesn’t figure in this class on three previous runs.
Sensational Report: Strong run at Moonee Valley on Friday. Down 4kg but back up in class. Outclassed.
Tavarnelle: Very strong last start at big odds behind Star of Giselle. In equal class today and will appreciate the extra 100m. Does need to find a few extra lengths but will be there at the end.
Sense of Pride: Huge run late on slow ground last start at Rosehill. Looks very progressive and suited very nicely with 54kg. Barrier 10 no issue and will enjoy the long straight. One of the big chances.
Mabsam: Precious three four runs very poor apart from last time out when came home very strongly at Caulfield behind Star of Giselle. Gets even more ground to run on from today and down 1.5kg. Could be hitting the line hard late.
Spin The Bottle: Won all three this prep but times are too poor to win here even though weighted nicely.
Champagne Ruby: Good win last start in much easier race. Needs to find 3-4L today.
Kasane: Outclassed
Danyme: Ignore last start where something went wrong. Looking to runs before that, does seem outclassed.
Orlando’s Bride: Good win two back but outclassed last start in lesser company.
Street Diamond: Been close all this prep. Times suggest outclassed on this weight.
Aliyana: Maiden winner last start. Needs to progress massively to win here and can’t see it.
Queen For Ninedays: Form not good enough for this class.
Confidence: 75%
Strategy: There are a very good chances in the race but we feel the lower weights should be the stronger finishes. We have gone for some back markers which should be suited today but you do always need luck. Not going crazy early. 0.75 units Sense of Pride win 0.5 unit Mabsam win.
Flemington Race 3
I’m Jake: Must weaker race today and hopefully won’t try and lead it up today as that strategy didn’t suit last start. Look to run two back behind Dame Claire which is very solid form. Weighted very well here today.. won 1 placed 2 from 3 at distance and won 1 placed 2 at track. Looks suited today.
Spechenka: Much easier task than last two runs but will need a lot of luck to win. Last win was over 3200m which is strong but not going well enough it seems here today.
Crocodile Canyon: Will put in a nice run if runs are career best but does need to improve to have a chance today.
Maythehorsebemagic: Hasn’t shown enough this start to make you back it today. Been outclassed by many lengths.
Verdant: Big win over Crafty Cruiser over the 3000m at Moonee Valley. Meets I’M Jake 2kg better off today also than three back. A big chance.
Crafty Cruiser: Meets Verdant 1kg better off today but just keeps finding ways to be beaten. Never won from 8 starts at track but will be there at the line. Last five starts now been more than 0.4L off winning.
Apprehend: On last few runs is outclassed.
Mr Lowndes: Nice win last start in Adelaide but this is a much harder race. Needs to find quite a few lengths to measure up.
Doc Hennessy: As with Mr Lowndes, needs to find lengths to have a chance today.
Innocent Lady: Went backwards last start and very questionable if the horse will stay the 2800m.
Practiced: Very progressive this prep and keeps running well. Weighted nicely again today but 8L loss (2nd) to Puissance De Lune is an issue from last start.
Tanah Lot: Solid run last start but hasn’t beaten crafty or verdant this prep. Is weighted better today.
You Think So: Good win in Cranbourne against a much easier field. Never ran this distance but should stay no issues. Weighted nicely but has never won at class or on track. Will go well.
Garud: BIG win last start in a very good time at Geelong over the 2400m even after being blocked for a run. Barrier 12 an issue for sure. Will appreciate the extra 400m.
Altonio: Outclassed
About The Journey: Outclassed
Confidence: 65%
Strategy: One of our least confident races of the day. Garud should win if progressive like we expect after that big win last start. I’m Jake also should go very strongly on form lines and is overs. 0.5 units Garud, 0.25 units I’m Jake.
Flemington Race 4
Mid Summer Music: Much easier race today for MSM. Never won at track from 5 starts but is 4 wins 3 places at distance. Beat home Buffering winning a Group 1 last start but doesn’t seem to have trained on this prep. Weighted nicely.
Steps In Time: Barrier 19 a very big issue for a horse going forward. Ran too fast last start and is a forgive run. Back to the 1400m and to a winable class but back to 57kg. Much classier than two back race today. Should still go close.
Gai’s Choice: Doesn’t seem to have trained on from last prep. Both runs been poor this prep. 25 days off, may turn around and go close.
Miss Stellabelle: Just keeps on producing very solid runs. Barrier 13 an issue for the horse to get across. 1400m is the distance they want but off 57kg will struggle to hold out the distance like last two starts. Will be there at the finish.
Sophie’s Spirit: Never won second up from 4 tries. Didn’t show enough staying ability last start.
Whateverwhenever: Big big big win last start over the 1400m. Barrier 7 perfect for the horse and this is a weaker race. Down 3kg but has every hope.. Won 3 of last 4 races including 5 of last 10 at distance.
Detours: Blocked for run last start but wouldn’t have got there either way. Never won over the 1400m distance from 5 starts and never been on track. Down 1kg and will be pushing hard late.
Rose of Peace: Hasn’t won for 8 months in a weaker race and first two performances this prep aren’t good enough.
Angel of Mercy: Ran on strongly late first up and will be better suited by the 1400m than 1200m. Barrier 20 very hard to win from but will go back anyway. Should be pushing hard late but may want longer.
City of Song: Big hype around her last run and didn’t produce. Barrier 17 today so goes back as far again. 1 from 1 at the track is a positive and may simply just need the extra distance provided by the 1400m at Flemington. Could run well.
Crucial: Outclassed on first up run and never won second up.
Classy Chloe: Won 3 placed 2 from 6 at this distance but hasn’t been as good this prep compared to last. Had to go over the Adelaide to sneak out a win last start. Weighted nicely but barrier 12 means hard work early. Can win.
Cabernet: Never won second up. Weighted nicely but didn’t show enough first up. Will get a nice run from barrier 1.
Aerobatics: Keeps getting blocked for runs and could continue from barrier 4. Never won at distance and never been to track.
Koonoomoo: Super run last two starts when just beaten in both. Weighted to win today but barrier 18 will be an issue. Never won at class but ignore that stat.
Sheila’s Star: Ignore first up run where taken to last for some reason and never given a proper ride. Will be fit enough today and pushing forward hopefully from a more suitable distance. Rates to win when you consider.
Bonaria: BIG run last last start at course and distance. Keeps progressing and should run very well.
Simply Put: Outclassed on previous runs
New Beginning: Very good two and three back up in Sydney but was terrible last start. Could produce best and run very close.
Twilighting: Weighted nicely in this race and will go close if given a solid ride.
Confidence: 70%
Strategy: Strong field but happy to have a good go at Whateverwhenever with Sheila’s Star forgiven from last start and Bonaria savered. 1.5 units Whateverwhenever. 0.75 units Sheila’s Star and 0.25 units Bonaria.
Flemington Race 5
The Travelling Man: Rate poorly coming into this race. Hasn’t been within more than 2L this prep and seems to have gone backwards. Weigthed out of it.
Malasun: Huge step up in class last start. Was a very ‘bold’ play by the owners. Lead a furious pace and ended up 5L behind Buffering which isn’t a bad result coming into thsi race. Big issue is that first up didn’t produce enough in similar class race. Weighted nicely today and could run well but is still a big query. If produces similar run to first ever race beating Members Joy by 1.3L, wins here.
Magnier: Ignore last start where didn’t race normally. Needs to produce a much better run than last four starts to win here. Has the ability.
Sistine Demon: Decent first up run behind Isabella Snowflake who would be winning here today. Need to have trained on a few lengths.
Kolonga: Much better weighted here than Sistine Demon is. On weights could go close but issue is previous two runs this prep.
Genteel: Quality first up win in much easier company in a decently run race. Down 3.5kg and could be there at the line on form.
Potiche: Outclassed on two previous runs.
Hyperventilate: Outclassed on last start.
Thanks A Million: Couldn’t even win a maiden so can’t have today.
Confidence: 80%
Strategy: Looks a two horse race for us. Happy to go hard Genteel and softer Malasun. Genteel 3 units to win. Malasun 1.5 units to win.
Flemington Race 6
Big Chill: Ran on gamely last start but does seem outclassed in this grade. Needs to produce an effort 3-4L better.
Angelic Light: Won a slowly run 1200m ran last start infront of Agueda who is a solid horse. Up 1kg. Has ability to win.
Mareeza: Tow back 0.1L behind Cavalry Rose whose form is over-hyped. Was still a very game second. Last start blocked for run at MV but still not the best run. Down 3kg does suit today but needs to produce a career best run today.
Balaclava Lady: Ran bravely for us last start at MV but just didn’t produce enough from the back of the field in a race ran to suit front runners. Down 3kg and could be running on big time today.
Ciao: Nice run last start behind A Time for Julia but seems slightly outclassed today on form lines.
Medusa’s Miss: Blundered at start last start and was ridden wide the whole race due to the track. Super fast 1400m race and won very well. Down 1kg today and will be very hard to hold out with form lines around Jolie Bay.
Walk with Atittude: Disappointed last start and only 1.5kg better off today. Down to 1400m may suit. Needs a slowly run race to have a shot.
Coins: Not classy enough on weights today.
Thunder Rain: Not classy enough on last start form. May decide to go further forward today which does give her more of a chance.
Amarachi: Outclassed
Benenden: Super win last start in much easier company in very slowly run time. Has a good sprint but 3L behind Angelic Light three back at Kilmore tells us not classy enough today.
Latino Goss: Outclassed
Catered: Really liked its run last start but needs to find 2L more today.
Confidence: 85%
Strategy: One of our biggest goes of the day. Medusa’s Miss form lines are super and Balaclava Lady down in weight will also run a brave race. 4 units to win and place on Medusa’s Miss. 1.5 units to win on Balaclava Lady.
Flemington Race 7
Dunaden: Super win by nearly a length at Caulfield last start with Alcopop franking the form beating the Cox Plate winner on Saturday. Up 1kg (oh no!) for that monsterous run. Was a race set up for the swoopers it has to be said. Undefeated in Australia and could very much continue to be after this race. Big chance.
Americain: Ridden wide (standard by Mosse). Oliver gets the ride which is a positive. Interestingly Americain lost two plates last run which makes the 1.5L behind Dunaden absolutely super form. Disappointed that we can never find out exactly where the plates were lost in the run though as that would be swaying me a bit more. Loves the track and loves the distance. Only issue for mine is that hasn’t won a race since around this time in 2011. Does look fit enough.
Jakkalberry: Very very average in the Caulfield Cup.. On previous form needs to find 4 lengths to win today.
Red Cadeaux: Has gone backwards since the second in the Melbourne Cup. Won one race last prep in lesser company but over the 2800. Before that 2nd to Colour Vision was solid (1.5L behind) over the 3200m. Next three starts were all over 2400m which we suspect the horse is more a 3200m type. Beaten by Fiorente 4.3L last start. Needs to improve today. Looks to be a little under the odds from barrier 18.
Winchester: Keeps on finishing mid to back of fields. Looks very harshly weighted today off 55.5kg. No chance today.
Voila Ici: Absolutely ignore last start run where too much pace out front. The horse has never ran this distance before so massive queries over if can stay the distance. Time will tell. Looks overs at the price regardless on 0.5L behind Ocean Park form where produced close to careeer best.
Cavalryman: Will be sitting very far back in the pack today which will make it very hard for the horse to swoop with the likes of Dunaden and Americain. Goes well on a Good track which is a positive and has won at the distance. Last run was in a Listed race over 3200m and finished 2nd which is a big worry. Did win very well three back in WFA-LR. Just don’t know if the horse has the class or ability to win today.
Mount Athos: A big chance in the race and weighted very nicely off 54kg. Should grab the rails run four back which is a nice place to be. Won previous three races by 2.3L 4L and 3.3L all over the 2700-2800 and can run out the longer distances. Word is that he is training very well but the last 61 internationals that have ran in the Melbourne Cup with no ‘first up run’ in Australia have not won. Should be contesting but needs to get a split at the right time.
Sanagas: Has quality a year ago in the US but hasn’t trained on. Never ran over this distance before and never at track. On previous runs including Caulfield Cup doesn’t have a chance.
Ethiopia: Only his 8th start. Harshly weighted against others in the race when you consider he has only ever won the one race. Was a nice run in the Cox Plate but still finished 4.3L 4th. Not sure what they will do today from barrier 14 but speed maps suggest sitting in the front third of the race. Has the ability to stay the 2400m but not sure he has the quality to win this.
Fiorente: Questionable if the horse will stay the 3200m never having ran the distance before. Form lines look better at the distance on a wet ground having beaten Joshua Tree and Red Cadeaux over 2400m on Slow. Failed to fire against top quality horses in Sea Moon and Orfevre in other starts. 53.5kg is a nice weight and positions VERY well in this race expected to take a rails sit close to the front. Can run gamely.
Galileo’s Choice: You know that he will stay will stay the trip having been a hurdler over the 3200m distance previously. Ran two lead up runs off 61kg winning both with ease and looks primed to win here off 53.5kg. Speedmaps have him sitting about 10th in running and this should suit. Will be launching around the 700m mark and staying to the line.
Glencadam Gold: Jumped a $4.40 favourite in the Caulfield Cup. Did too much early where swoopers filled the top 4 places. Strangely he is out to $60 to win the Melbourne Cup. This is simply overs when he has won 3 from 5 at the class and loves a good track. Wouldn’t have given him a chance from anything outside barrier 10 and got given 7 with not so much speed inside. Will get to the front and be given a nice ride by Berry who knows how to ride the horse. Kelinni who he beat home 2 runs back by 3.8L franked the form by winning on the weekend very well. Simply overs and deserves your money.
Green Moon: A massive question mark horse in this race. Was never going to win last start in the Cox Plate as doesn’t handle the weight. Has 6 starts for 1 place 0 wins off 59kg now. Down to 53.5kg today and looks much better suited. Barrier 5 is PERFECT for this horse. Will slot right in to sit 2 out 3 back on speedmaps. Question is if he will stay out the 3200. Previous runs suggest no issue.
Maluckyday: Hyped up Melbourne Horse. Gatewood form proven to not be quality and Tanby not even placing or going close on the weekend also proves it. Couldn’t get within 6L of Ocean Park or others behind it three back. Weighted nicely today, no doubt, but doesn’t have the quality it once had.
Mourayan: Unlucky not to run last year and was expected to go close. Comes in this prep with a very game win last start and is expected to stay out the trip with no issues. Has a 0.8L 3rd to Americain last prep on his record over the 2400m. Will be sitting forward with Glencadam Gold today and not expected to put on much pace. On the weights, has a chance.
My Quest for Peace: One of the few front runners in the Caulfield Cup who stayed on and produced one of the most underrated runs of the Cup. Will be given absolutely the run of the race sitting behind the leader on the rails. Has stayed out the 2800m trip before so 3200m shouldn’t be an issue. Weighted to win this. Big hope.
Niwot: Not good enough to win today. Hasn’t gone within 3.8L the last four starts (all this prep).
Tac De Boistron: 11 rides for 0 wins 0 places on a Good track. Day should start dead and go to Good by the time of the race. If somehow we had a freak storm then he is in with a chance but even then.. wouldn’t be backing it.
Lights of Heaven: Ran in for third in the Caulfield Cup. Unlucky barrier draw today means she will have to work extra hard to get a position up forward which is expected to be one our one back. Seems to be wanting the distance on previous form and could be running on to the line strongly. Suspect there will be a few too good in this race for her off the last few starts.
Precedence: Outclassed in this race. Never won or placed at distance from 4 attempts.
Unusual Suspect: How Brigitan or Gatewood didn’t get a go before this horse I have no idea. Shown 0 form since arriving in Australia and hasn’t won a race since 2010. This makes our Cup look like a joke to those who pay to fly their horses over.
Zabeelionaire: Decent run in the Caulfield Cup off the 52k and ran on strongly behind Alcopop (2L) on the weekend. I can’t see it winning but I can certainly see the horse running in for a place if everything goes right. The big negative is the speed map for it.
Kelinni: Super progressive horse who won a very solid 2500m race and is given no weight today jumping from 51kg. Barrier 10 is a great get for the team also. Should sit 2 out 4-5 back which will suit the horse. If a solid tempo is on, may be one of the best chances in the race on weights. Issue is that off 52kg still didn’t get close to Glencadam Gold two back.
Confidence: 70%
Strategy: 5 units My Quest for Peace, 1 unit Glencadam Gold, 2 units Dunaden, Saver bet on Galileo’s Choice and Americain.
Quaddie leg one: 1, 2, 8, 12, 13, 14, 17, 24
Top 10
My Quest for Peace
Glencadam Gold
Dunaden
Galileo’s Choice
Americain
Kelinni
Green Moon
Lights of Heaven
Mount Athos
Red Cadeaux
Mourayan
Flemington Race 8
Lightinthenite: Very brave Group 3 win last start at Caulfield and previous run 2L behind Fat Al also classy. 60kg is a very harsh weight penalty today but will certainly be there at the end getting a good run from barrier 5.
Stout Hearted: Goes back as always. 60kg is harsh but when you look to two runs back 1.5L behind Lamasery, can swoop with the weight. Three back form beating Crafy Irna has held up with Crafty Irna winning in the last two weeks. Hard to hold out today. 2 wins 2 places from 4 at distance.
Extra Zero: Not the worst run last start 3L off and previous behind Lightinthenite was solid meeting him 3kg better off today. Needs to sit closer to the speed to have a chance.
Grey Assignment: Rates to win today. Been going very strongly in Queensland winning four of last five races and times are solid. Run of race from barrier 2 and loves the distance. Only issue will be if measures up to the runners today off the 59.5kg.
King Diamond: Suited to the distance and two of previous three runs been solid. Won 3 from 4 at track which is impressive but does need to find a few more lengths today.
Maules Creek: Solid run two back 2.3L behind Mourayan but not good enough last start behind Lightinthenite. Better weighted today but still needs to find a few more lengths.
Eraset: Returned poorly this prep. First up run was ok, second run very average and last start even worse.
Mr Chard: Outclassed
Spacecraft: Very average last start in much harder race and also bad two back. Never won or placed at track from 4 starts.
Eclair Surprise: Nice win last start over 1600m when losing a plate. Two back form franked with Texas Warney winning the Horsham Cup. Can run a very game race but does need to improve. 1 win from 1 at distance and 1 win from 2 starts at track.
Tribal Rock: Form is solid from three runs this prep. Weighted nicely and Oliver on board. Blocked for run and almost ran down Callanish last start. Barrier 4 suits.
Menados: Good run first up but last two runs found issues. Goes well at distance but needs to get a clear run.
Confidence: 70%
Strategy: A tough race. Think Stout Hearted is suited today and Grey Assignment has been going super. 2 units Stout Hearted 1.5 units Grey Assignment.
Quaddie leg two: 1, 2, 5, 11, 12
Flemington Race 9
Green Birdie: 3 starts at track for 0 wins 0 places. Best is behind him but does keep producing ‘solid’ runs. Needs to find another length and a half today.
Hot Snitzel: Ended last prep poorly and didn’t show enough first up this prep to impress. 0 wins or places from 4 second up.
Excellantes: Big win last start behind Sea Lord. Down 3.5kg today. Goes well at the distance and will be producing another solid run.
Rockpecker: Never won from 10 starts firs tup even though went close last start. Does nicely at track and distance but needs to produce something special today.
Danzylum: Produced one solid run last start 0.8L behind SOuthern Speed at Caulfield. On weights, rather be on something else first up after 7 months off.
Famous Seamus: Big run last start in a crazy time over the 1100m (1:01.9). Hardly ever see horses break the 1:02. Has the ability and up 2kg today seems fair. Obviously suited by a strong pace.
Sea Lord: Got lucky last start in an understatement. Got passed but won with a bob, we will take it. Down 2kg today and the big question mark is the Flemington straight. Won 3 of last 5 races all at Moonee Valley mainly thanks to the rail giving us a leader bias. Gone close the next two starts at Caulfield but not being able to finish off. Will run strongly today but suspect the long straight catches him out.
Too Many Reds: 0.1L behind Famous Seamus last start and form lines from previous runs read much better. Meets 0.5kg better off today also. Will sit further forward today we suspect than last start.
Cascabel: Good run first up and will progress on. Could run a place. Never won at track from 12 starts or in class from 13.
Liveandletdie: Very poor first up run when didn’t find anything. Could have just been flat that day and preping for today but can’t have on that run.
Lord Pyrus: Never won first up and only once at distance from 9 starts. Never won from 6 at track. Weighted well is the only positive.
The Eighth Maker: Nice 4th behind Classy Chloe but looks outclassed today.
Metallurgical: Not shown enough the last two starts to win today
Altar: Decent first up run. last five runs never really been out of any of it’s races and always runs on. Needs to find another length and a bit today but has won second up before.
Adamon: Won at course and distance last start in a nice time. Never won first up is an issue but has won 5 from 19 at distance and 1 from 2 at class. Seems overpriced if trained on.
Sadalbari: Shown us nothing last two starts. outclassed.
Bigelow: Big run last start and will improve on today. Won at track before and good record at distances. Barrier 4 will suit if they decide to sit a little further forward today. Could run very well.
Adamantium: Never won at track or first up but always runs well. Never won at class from 8 runs. Wait to see how runs today before backing IMO.
Petman: Solid second behind Free Wheeling (1.8L) which figured to be nice form with Free Wheeling running on nicely for second on Saturday. Can produce another run and go close.
Unpretentious: Good form lines last prep and returned iwth a very easy 6L win in much easier class first up. Down 5kg today and will be running very strong today.
Confidence: 70%
Strategy: Tough race. 1.5 units Too Many Reds. 0.5 units Adamon and Unpretencious
Quaddie leg three: 6, 8, 14, 15, 23
Flemington Race 10
Elusive King: Never won first up and won 1 from 5 at track. Only won once at distance from 4. Weighted harshly with 60kg. Looks to be wanting longer than the 1400m.
Aeronatucial: Big win last start at Rosehill and should progress nicely today. Only query is the weight.
Mahisara: Good win first up this prep franked by Under The Sun winning on the weekend. Last start got too far back and should sit further forward today back in class. Williams on to give a perfect ride.
Zabisco: Doesn’t have the class to win here unless trained 3-4L more into the legs.
Beseech: Much harder than what he has been running in up in Queensland but has been putting down solid times. Should run nicely.
Cornell: 2 wins 2 places at distance and has won first up. Time winning at distance was solid last prep but needs to have improved big time today. Bled during GP1 last start and didn’t run out the race. Looks to be a very good chance.
Flyingconi: Huge late run first up at Seymour from the back of the field to just miss the prize. Up 1.5kg today but will appreciate Flemington track where has won 2 from 3.
Snitsky: Solid win last start making it four from five this prep. Can run out solid races and will slot in forward. Issue is getting across with some speed inside. Need a good jump and then will go close.
The New Boy: Outclassed.
Assertive Eagle: Keeps putting in solid runs but keeps finding a few too good for it. Never won at track before but will run a solid race once again.
Hot Lover: 6 months off should have helped this horse train on. Showed a lot of ability last prep including a win at course and distance. If trained on goes close.
Potions: Outclassed
Mosse Diva: Progressive and just keeps on winning. May simply just like the Sydney way? We will see today. Three very nice wins at distance in slow and fast times. 54kg means will go very close today.
Just Discreet: Strong form lines this prep. Will run a bold race today.
Mushatta: On previous tow runs this prep not good enough today.
Hinchley Wood: Not classy enough.
Chile Express: Has the ability. Strong first up run but needs to find much better than that.
Confidence: 75%
Strategy: Keen on Snitsky today and think Mosse Diva should run well. 3 units Snitsky and 1 unit Mosse Diva.
Quaddie leg four: 2, 9, 15
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