Welcome to The Profits preview for Melbourne Cup at Flemington on 7 November 2017. The best day of the racing carnival is here with the Melbourne Cup and it appears to be wide open this year. Surprisingly, there are several confident bets on the card today with one of the best cards for this day i’ve seen in a long time with quality runners stacked throughout the day. The track should continue to favour the inside early on in the day and then we can expect them to start getting out a little wider in the straight as the day goes on. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Flemington Race 6 – Our Crown Mistress – 5 units @ $3.20 to win. Counterplay – 1 unit @ $6.50 to win.
Next Best Bet
Flemington Race 5 – Property – 2.5 units Each-Way @ $5.50/$2.20
Best Each-Way
Flemington Race 10 – Fuhryk – 1.5 units Each-Way @ $6.00/$2.25
Best Value
Flemington Race 8 – Tally – 1 unit Each-Way @ $26/$7.50
Other Bets
Flemington Race 4 – Granddukeoftuscany – 3 units @ $5.50 to win. Plot Twist – 0.5 units @ $31 to win.
Flemington Race 9 – Faatinah – 1 unit Each-Way @ $6.560/$2.50
Flemington Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 3, 5, 7, 15, 20, 22
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 4, 10, 11, 19
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 3, 6, 16, 17, 19
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 5, 6, 13
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Flemington Race 1 – 1000m – G3 Emirates 100th A380 Stakes
1. Setsuna: Sensational win last start at Monnee Valley coming off a strong Sydney race form line. Has to be respected here.
2. Qafila: Won well last month at Caulfield as favourite over 1000m. Came from well back and was a very good run on the day. Very hard to beat here and suited.
3. Aristocratic Miss: First run. Stable flying and trialed well. Respect.
4. Chevalier D’eon: Unseen runner for a reasonable stable. Not known for their 2YOs though.
5. Farthing Wood: Weir trial winner that is only fairly bred. Others look better.
6. Havana Heat: Smerdon runner first up with Williams onboard. First crop of Shamus Award so unknown really on breeding.
7. Kara’s Hope: Fair trial coming into this. Opened single figures but drifted to double figures.
8. Lake District Girl: Two solid trials heading into this today around stables favoured 2YOs. Has looked a strong filly in training and can go very well at home track.
9. Miss Zelda: Large odds for relatively unknown trainer. Average breeding and no trial form to go from.
10. Rock the World: Two trials leading into this suggest she has some ability but doesn’t point me towards a win.
11. Roobeena: Unseen 2YO Filly from the McEvoy stable. Least liked of the stables runners at the odds. Still in the market.
12. Saturation: Average breeding for this race today. Expect improvement with the run.
13. Yulong Monoceros: Maher stable 2YO with relatively untapped form lines. Unseen and double figures.
Comments: I have to go with the proven form lines of what Qafila was able to do at Caulfield first up. It was a brilliant win and enough to win this today. Should have no issues with the straight with that experience in the bag.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Qafila E/W
Flemington Race 2 – 1700m – TAB.Com.Au Trophy
1. Hell or Highwater: Led them around too fast last start at Caulfield and Yendall gets back onboard today. Has won twice before at track and have to believe the rail will still be hot enough early on in the day. Top weight only issue.
2. Rocket Commander: Five runs this prep and failed to get close to a win with only one place. Not good enough on last two runs.
3. Invincibella: Been going very well this prep but couldn’t run down Lubiton on the biased MV track last start. Back to a Flemington course and looks well suited here.
4. Pygmy: Breathing issues last start when ran poorly in similar grade over further. Best should be good enough to feature.
5. Tahanee: Fell out of the race very quickly at Moonee Valley last start. Huge query on horses class this prep now. Hard to suggest… but Williams does keep the ride.
6. Lady Silhouette: Open grade winner at Gawler last start. Previous runs suggest this is a big step up.
7. Hot Ruby: Horrible last start at Moonee Valley but is better than that on previous runs. Best is good enough to feature here.
8. Miles of Krishan: Group 3 2nd three runs back at Amelies Star… two runs this prep over shorter distances beaten fairly by a long way. This looks to be the main target. Respect.
9. Spanner Head: Two runs this prep for an easy win first up and then fairly beaten last start in similar grade. Take on.
10. Stormsabrewing: Good stable and third u here. Has to progress onwards again to be winning this.
11. Rock Away: Strong run last start at Moonee Valley when ridden for luck and just missed. Was 4L slow on the day also. Huge run and has to be respected here.
13. Linguist: 4L winner from on speed at Ballarat last start. Big win but this is a jump in class.
14. Prepee: Couldn’t place in BM-64 last start.
15. Via Cavour: Not here.
Comments: Hell or Highwater and Invincibella are the two clear standouts on form. Tahanee could very well find form here but I have to take it on. Rock Away is a nice progressive type but may just find a few too good and has bad manners. Miles of Krishan is the improver worth watching.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Back Invincibella and Hell or Highwater.
Flemington Race 3 – 1400m – Lavazza Short Black
1. Royal Tudor: Four runs this prep for 0 places and 3L+ defeats. Has been competing in harder grades of races and is 5th up here giving the field 4kg+.. hard to suggest.
2. Boggoms: Nice run 5th at Caulfield last start from out back running on. Looks suited here to Flemington and not badly weighted. Respect.
3. Land of Plenty: 1200m back up to 1400m today where he ran 3.1L 8th in Group 1 class two back at Caulfield when ran wide in the race. 55kg looks a real steal here from barrier 2.
4. Dollar for Dollar: Back to Adelaide for two relatively easy wins in recen tweeks and back up in grade here. Big ask.
5. Fox Hall: They streeted the rest of the field last start at Moonee Valley but he just didn’t see out the 1500m strong enough to hold out Black Sheep. Up in grade but obviously a top chance.
6. New Universe: Get back run on type down from Sydney. First up beaten favourite at Randwick when slowly away, over-raced and raced wide and only beaten 0.9L. Good type.
7. Ozi Choice: Run down late last start at Caulfield by a very good type in Steel Frost. Well in at the weights and Williams onboard. Will push forward and be hard to hold out if on his game.
8. Atlantic City: Just missed last start at Geelong from out back on a soft track. Step up here in distance and grade suitable.
9. Milwaukee: Sale winner last start going through the grades. Step up to this grade ideal and looks a likely type.
11. Un de Sceaux: Always been a step below this grade of racing and is very hard to suggest on two runs to date.
12. Divine Quality: Lightly raced type but very well respected by the yard. Good 4.3L win at Ballarat but couldn’t repeat that at Sale finding one to good.
13. Manuel: McEvoy runner coming back over from Adelaide off a win and 2nd. Needs to settle to be a chance from this barrier. Will need luck
14. Krusty: Darwin winner last prep. Best is a step below this.
15. Snipfit: Needs further distances to be at very best based on last prep form.
16. Spearhead: Couldn’t get the job done the past 7 starts so can’t see him measuring up to this level today.
Comments: Land of Plenty maps for a very economical run and based on the 3L off a win in Group 1 over 1400m you just have to respect the form lines.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Land of Plenty E/W
Flemington Race 4 – 2800m – Ronald Mcdonald House Charities Plate
1. Berisha: Average at best last start in the Geelong Cup and up in distance again a query. Back to dryer at least but hard to suggest for mine.
2. Fanatic: Nice enough run but well outclassed again in the Geelong Cup. Back in class up in distance may be suited well here.
3. Granddukeoftuscany: Huge on speed run last start over 2500m and took a very good horse to run him down. Will be going around doing the same thing here today very well weighted and will be hard to run down.
4. Swacadelic: Looks the type to be well suited by the step up in distance and the speed on here. Certainly a key chance.
5. Yogi: Skipped the Lexus for this suggesting the horse is a year short of a cup run. Fairly beaten last start by Grandduke and has to improve here.
6. Sin to Win: Unproven over distance and won’t get a slow pace. Have to take him on.
7. Darabad: Will enjoy speed on and the distance today but even so, can’t see him going well up in this grade.
8. Settler’s Stone: Coming off some slowly run races. Can stay so no issues there but not sure he has the class to win with this pace on.
9. The Willybe: On speed type who has won 2 in a row. Will be going 10L faster today with the leader in the race pushing the pace. Tough ask.
10. Plot Twist: 2nd last and last the past two starts. 3200m winner in the past suggests he should handle the way this will be run today.
11. Sly Romance: 3000m winner in the past. Big ask stepping up here on past runs.
12. Regal Monarch: Hasn’t been close to a win since arriving in Australia. Distance suitable but obviously has to stand up and be counted here.
13. Kawabata: Bm-78 winner two back. Failed in Geelong Cup. Not here.
14. Flying Casino: Hasn’t won in nearly 10 starts and has been all over these distances. Not for me.
15. Sherlock Holmes: Good win last start at MV over 2500m but this is a huge ask stepping up in grade.
16. Ubin Thunderstruck: Not been going well enouigh the past three starts for me to suggest here.
17. Zilbiyr: Beaten by Sherlock Holmes last start and poorly weighted here.
18. Crafty Cruiser: Old mate loves the distance and track and is going well. Could place.
20. Baykool: Ran last on lead in run. Not for me.
21. Cuban Fighter: Hasn’t won since 2015.
Comments: Granddukeoftuscany the standout here at the weights for mine while Plot Twist looks the value of the race. Happy to back both. Sin to Win the unders of the race.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Granddukeoftuscany – 3 units @ $5.50. Plot Twist – 0.5 units @ $31
Flemington Race 5 – 1000m – Schweppes Flemington Fling
1. Property: Great run first up over the 1000m at Caulfield behind Snitty Kitty in Group 1 grade race time. Property got in the worst ground throughout and still finished off brilliantly when not near top in the yard. Top weight here but well back in class and a great price.
2. Bandipur: Got the win last start by default at Caulfield due to interference in the run and a slow pace. Must improve here and best seen on softer tracks.
3. Wait for No One: Not going well enough on five runs this prep for 0 wins.
4. Madeenaty: Back to Flemington where she can run her right race out front. Always going to be tough to get past here with two runs over 1000m for two seconds. Can’t have to win.
5. Piracy: Coming off a career peak last start at Randwick where he couldn’t get the job done and has to improve again back to 1000m.
6. Sam’s Image: Good start to finish win with the bias last start at Moonee Valley. Good horse and go well at this track and also 1000m but has to improve again.
7. Easy Beast: Two wins in a row in easier grades. Big step up but goes well.
8. Nature Strip: Got back and ran on well behind Sam’s Image last start. Has improvement to come third up and goes well here.
9. Paret: Over-raced last start at Rosehill and still ran very well 2nd to Beau Geste. Step back to 1000m the query.
10. Choisborder: Three runs this prep and finally got a win last start at Moonee Valley as favourite from on speed.
11. Prezado: Yet to win a race and while he has been racing well enough, looks outclassed here.
12. William Thomas: Maiden winner first up. Did beat Choisborder. Big up though.
13. Lenticular: First starter.
Comments: Property rates well clear of the field here and looks great each-way bet. Nature Strip looks the main danger.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Property – 2.5 units Each-Way @ $5.50/$2.20
Flemington Race 6 – 1400m – Lexusa Hybrid Plate
1. Torvill: Showed a will to win last start at Randwick when getting back and flying home late to claim the pack. Has to be respected here.
2. Our Crown Mistress: Did a load of work to get the lead last start at Caulfield and still saw out the 1400m brilliantly on the day. Won’t have to do as much work to lead here and will have extra in the reserves for the straight today. Looks well ahead of these.
3. Counterplay: Continues to run well this prep with a third behind Our Crown Mistress last start from well back. Does miss the start which is an issue.
4. River Jewel: Two starts this prep and beaten fairly on both occasions. Would need to improve lengths here to pass OCM.
5. Wanted Diva: Has looked great in the yard last two starts but just simply not good enough. May have had issues last start but even so, hard to like here on those two lead in runs.
6. Warranty: Two wins in a row including a step up to Randwick last start jumping well and kicking home strongly. This is another step up in class.
7. Luqyaa: Two runs this prep and while a forgive run first up, got back last start wide no cover but didn’t exactly get close. Can improve here but has to find a few lengths.
8. Tarcoola Spirit: Good run 2nd last start at Moonee Valley over 1200m. Step up to 1400m a big ask in this grade.
9. Yulong Xingsheng: 2nd to Torvill last start when sat midfield and had every chance. Has to improve.
10. Super Snob: Fairly beaten last start behind Our Crown Mistress. Hard to have.
11. Lady of Crebilly: Two runs this prep for a maiden and BM-70 win. Going through the grades but huge jump here and not one for me.
12. Boorooj: Maiden winner last start. Took 5 runs to get it.
13. Lilas: Beaten 22L last start at Caulfield. Maiden win only fair.
Comments: Clear standout in Our Crown Mistress who is the real deal. Main threat comes out of the same race in Our Crown Mistress. Torvill is probably slightly value while Luqyaa has the ability to improve and run well here.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Our Crown Mistress – 5 units @ $3.20 to win. Counterplay – 1 unit @ $6.50.
2017 Emirates Melbourne Cup – 3200m
1. Hartnell (57.5kg): 128 Timeform Rating high last prep and ran 123 second up. Strange lead in prep but may very well have just been focused on this all along. Will be there at the end a chance coming into the straight but it’s hard to see him going any better than 3rd with this weight. Hard also to see him dropping out of top 10.
2. Almandin (56.5kg): 119 Timeform Rating winning last year with 52kg. Heartbreak City ran a 123 and Hartnell 122. Big step up in weight today. Looked very good on lead in runs and no dramas with the last start fail. Ready for a staying test. Gapped them to 3rd last year remember.
3. Humidor (56kg): 129 Timeform Rating last start over 2000m in the Cox Plate coming off 121/122 and 126. Huge query to stay the genuine 3200m distance today and completly untested.. but you have to have a throw at the stumps don’t you. Hard not to respect but at the price you do have to just take him on.
4. Tiberian (55.5kg): 119 Timeform Rating last run and peak run heading over here. First time over distance and didn’t see out 4000m in the past. Two lead in runs obviously ideal progression. Been lumped a fairly hefty weight all things considered. Barrier will require a brilliant ride.
5. Marmelo (55kg): 120 Timeform Rating and ran 119+ at Caulfield last start. Best over these distances so obviously more suited here. Got charmed run in Caulfield Cup to still only run 6th. Up in the weights compared to a few better positioned rivals and barrier makes it tough.
6. Red Cardinal (55kg): 117 Timeform Rating well below other internationals. Midfield type runner with a horrible barrier which seemed the nail in the coffin for mine. A step below the very best needed here. Only a brutal tempo would give him the chance from so far back.
7. Johannes Vermeer (54.5kg): 122 Timeform Rating career peak first up at Caulfield and then 120+ last start. Needs to match those figures up to this distance. Clearly has to be respected but clearly has been well found in the markets to the point where it’s hard to back him.
8. Bondi Beach (54kg): 122+ Timeform Rating on best in the past. Best ratings are on softer tracks than expected here. Just can’t have this year on the two runs to date.
9. Max Dynamite (54kg): 117 Timeform Rating. Came into this off a horrible Timeform rating as only run since June 2016 on the flat. Would need to have found his Melbourne Cup form from 2015 to compete. Can sit close to speed from a good gate.
10. Ventura Storm (54kg): 119+ Timeform Rating. Came to Australia with high hopes and showed a 118 Timeform Rating two back before getting galloped on in the Caulfield Cup. Was flying up to that point. Lameness issues always very hard to overcome so no surprise on the price drift. Boom Time has been beating him at home by all reports.
12. Wicklow Brave (54kg): 116 Timeform Rating. One i’m happy to just keep taking on. Can’t win this for mine.
13. Big Duke (53.5kg): 115 Timeform Rating. Just missed in the Sydney Cup. Good St Leger win two back and just wasn’t suited last start in the Moonee Valley Cup by the tempo run. Maps Midfield from the barrier and has to be considered a chance on his very best runs in the past with this low weight.
14. US Army Ranger (53.5kg): 112 Timeform Rating. Clearly below the very best needed to win this. One i’ll happily take on.
15. Boom Time (53kg): 117 Timeform Rating. Should have no queries over the distance today and has to be respected off the Caulfield Cup win with only 53kg today. Can run well from on speed from the barrier.
16. Gallante (53kg): 117 Timeform Rating. Not the worst run in the Geeling Cup as a lead in but he clearly needs wetter ground that what is on offer today. Pacemaker.
17. Libran (53kg): 105 Timeform Rating. G3 winner over 2000m and should have no issues with the 3200m.. but he looks well below the class needed to win a race like this on what I’ve seen in the past.
18. Nakeeta (53kg): 114 Timeform Rating. Ebor winner who should sit midfield today. This is a big jump in class and the horse just hasn’t measured up to the top level for me. Happy to take him on even after gelding.
19. Single Gaze (53kg): 118 Timeform Rating. Continues to run well without winning and has to be praised for the Caulfield Cup run. Step up to 3200m looks fine on what we had seen so far this prep but I can’t see this horse beating all of these top quality animals home.
20. Wall of Fire (53kg): 117 Timeform Rating. Last start career peak improved from 116+. Flew home in the Herbert Power for 2nd and was a clear eye-catcher. Best runs have been 2900m distances in the past. Coming out of one of the hottest run races as a lead in which is a big positive and C Williams onboard. Position in run only query but has positioned forward in the past.
21. Thomas Hobson (52kg): 117 Timeform Rating. Two lead in runs this prep 2nd in the G2 Doncaster Cup and 7th in the Lonsdale CUp. No questions about this horse staying the distance.. more about the horses quality as an 8YO. Positions midfield/on speed but tough from barrier.
22. Rekindling (51.5kg): 121 Timeform Rating. Comes into this off a high rating St Ledger defeat in 4th and drops 6kg. Gets in very well at the weights and from barrier 4 can position further forward than normal (not last). Will need luck in running but clearly one to beat.
23. Amelie’s Star (51kg): No Timeform Rating. Well in at the weights based on the Bart Cummings win… but was that her brand final? Failed in the Caulfuield Cup since which is a huge concern. Weir is good enough thought to get her ready.
24. Cismontane (50kg): No Timeform Rating. Would be shocked if he could lead them around start to finish and win. Take on.
Top Chances
Rekindling
Wall of Fire
High Chances
Humidor
Johannes Vermeer
Big Duke
Boom Time
Almandin
Medium Chances
Hartnell
Tiberian
Marmelo
Ventura Storm
Amelie’s Star
Low Chances
Red Cardinal
Max Dynamite
Nakeeta
Single Gaze
Thomas Hobson
Bondi Beach
Very Low Chances
Wicklow Brave
US Army Ranger
Libran
Gallante
Cismontane
Betting
Rekindling – 2 units Each-Way @ $16.50/$6.20
Wall of Fire – 1 unit Each-Way @ $15/$5.20
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 3, 5, 7, 15, 20, 22
Flemington Race 8 – 1800m – LR James Boag’s Premium Stakes
1. Tally: Not the worst run in the Bart Cummings but back to his more preferred distance today and looks well in. Suited at this track and only negative is barrier.
2. He or She: Three runs this prep and has been poor all three runs. Can’t see here.
3. Kidmenever: Well below the best grades last start even if he pulled up with EIPH and Thumps. Hard to suggest here back to 1800m off those issues.
4. Maurus: Ran home very solidly last start with a lot more to come from the yard. Kiwia franked form also. Respect.
5. Turnitaround: Disappointing run last start coming off two decent runs in harder grade. Respect his ability to run ok here.
6. Articus: Horrible in the Moe Cup. Previous start couldn’t beat Brown Ben and a few others at Morphetville.
7. Balf’s Choice: Seymour Cup winner in good style last start. Up to 1800m here and can improve and run well.
8. De Little Engine: Two impressive wins last prep over 2800 and 3200. Clearly coming back late into Spring suggests had set backs and this looks too short for him.
9. Tashbeeh: Throw at the stumps? 1400m up to 1800m where has won in the past and may just be crying out for? Was just so impressive first up over 1200m it’s hard to see.
10. Life Less Ordinary: Last start beaten favourite in the Metrop coming off a strong 3rd in the G3 Kingston Town. Back to 1800m here. Was lame last start.
11. Lubiton: Strong win last start in G3 Company at Moonee Valley. Up to 1800m today and has to be respected. Fast horse.
12. Pure Pride: Forgive run in the Seymour Cup. Previous start winner at course over 1400m in a brilliant turn of foot display. Has to be respected.
13. Nozomi: Continues to run well this prep but hasn’t won since first up in much easier grade. Can run well but clearly has to improve again.
14. Radipole: Two runs this prep. G1 5th last start from on speed on Saturday… unlikely to back up here?
15. Brown Ben: Four runs this prep for two wins. Huge jump in class this.
16. Second Bullet: Coming out of a brutally run form race. Not shown anything since first up run.
17. Jim’s Journey: Big step up in grade. Can’t see it.
18. Big Blue: Battled around in the Seymour Cup. Looks out of class even for a Godolphin horse.
19. Odeon: Great win last start at Caulfield and Dodging Bullets won since. Looks great step up here. Can win.
20. Von Tunzelman: NZ handicap winner. G1 6th last prep over 2000m. Respect enough on last start win but this is a big jump.
21. Mr Garcia: Gelded since last run. Fairly beaten both starts in harder company in UK. Has ability over these distances if good enough.
22. Captain Duffy: Two runs two wins this prep in easier grades. Going the right way about things.
Comments: Wide open race. Lots of chances. Have to take on Life Less Ordinary at the prices back in distance here. Lubiton looks great off that last start run but is a query to back it up here without the bias. Tally is the value in the race and looks suited at the distance and track and i’m happy to play.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 4, 10, 11, 19
Strategy: Tally – 1 unit Each-Way at $26/$7.50
Flemington Race 9 – 1200m – LR MSS Security Sprint
1. Kuro: Two runs this prep well below what was needed in the two runs. Back in class where can win if good enough. Never won at track.
2. Derryn: Two poor runs this prep. Best is good enough to figure here but better on softer tracks.
3. Faatinah: Coming out of a very strong 1000m race. Up to 1200m ideal. Times are very very good from this horse and looks very hard to hold out. Has won down the straight previously.
5. Casino Wizard: WFA-LR 2nd last start fairly beaten. Back in grade but still some very hard types to beat here. Nice enough times at best.
6. Calanda: Has been well supported this Snowden runner. Beaten favourite last start at Caulfield. First attempt down straight.
7. Quatronic: Horrible first up and hard to suggest on that run here. Did beat Deploy last prep.
8. Nancy: Average at best first up and first time down the straight here and needs to improve on best form.
9. Ocean Embers: They went to fast last start. Will go slower here but still fast. Looks the type to be suited here but 2 runs 0 places.
10. Crystal Dreamer: Has won here in the past. Last two runs well below grade needed.
11. Tried and Tired: Always seems to run well down the straight. Back to 1200m a query.
12. So You Too: Good 3rd behind Rich Charm last start at Caulfield. Unplaced only try down straight in the past. Good enough to be considered.
13. Sebring Sun: Best in the past would have him going well here but two runs this prep below what is needed and unproven down straight.
14. Glenrowan Prince: Bm-78 winner to end last prep. Huge jump in grade here.
15. I Thought So: Sydney runner up in grade having not won all three runs this prep but still running well. Place?
16. Princess of Queens: Stays at 1200m and query down the straight today for first time. Not sure she is the type to be suited by it but we know she finishes off well late.
17. Oberland: Stable like this horse and have been patient. Last start run was good and suggested more to come.
18. I’m Telling Ya: Won here last start down the straight in easier grade. Testing material.
19. Search Squad: Open grade 4th last start. Steps back in grade but well weighted and has to be considered. Goes well down straight.
20. Reata: CL1 winner. Struggle to see placing.
Comments: Happy to play here on Faatinah well back in grade at good E/W odds from a barrier that will allow him to sit wherever is playing best in the middle of the straight.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 3, 6, 16, 17, 19
Strategy: Faatinah – 1 unit Each-Way @ $6.560/$2.50
Flemington Race 10 – 1400m – G3 The Hong Kong Jockey CLub Stakes
1. Fuhryk: Smashed the field last start at Caulfield over 1100m and Lyuba has franked that form on Saturday. Step up to 1400m today the query but she looks the type to handle it here from a good barrier.
2. Eckstein: Good second in the Myer to Shoals. Would obviously consider here even on a 3 day back up but is a query to run here?
3. Cool Passion: Great run 2nd to Global Glamour at Caulfield last start beating home G1 winner Shillelagh. Form lines are sound.
4. Quilate: Ride of the day to win last start given a perfect economical ride. Would need to improve again to win.
5. White Moss: Two starts two wins this prep. G3 winner last start smashing them from on speed. Has to be considered here.
6. Miss Gunpowder: Huge run 2nd last start at Moonee Valley 3-wide no cover just missed. Step up to 1400m the only query but looks well here.
7. Ellicazoom: Well beaten in the Myer. Back to 1400m but surely won’t back up.
8. Deja Blue: Geelong 1200m winner but a few hard luck stories in the race. Be surprised if this horse measures up.
9. Quilista: Couldn’t get runs at the right time last start and unlucky. Step up to 1400m today looks perfect on previous form and this may be the difference here.
10. Improvement: Led them all the way around and weight got her the win last start. Step up in grade here and has to be considered a winning chance.
11. Swampland: Too far back last start in the Tristarc and finds a more winnable race here. Will be getting back running on.
12. Jalan Jalan: Two runs this prep and beaten fairly on both occasions. Hard to see the win here.
13. Pedrena: Flew home and just missed first up when looked to have improvement to come. Up to 1400m more ideal and well positioned here.
14. Fillie Champagne: Two runs this prep and not great on either occasion. Pass.
15. Lucyinrio: G3 2nd last start over in New Zealand on a soft track beaten 2.5L. Even on best runs in the past she has to improve for mine.
16. Jamaican Rain: Looked the real deal but didn’t measure up at the top level the past two starts. Has to improve.
Comments: When all is said and done, Fuhryk from barrier 4 can map midfield with cover and get a charmed run. Fuhryk has huge upside up to 1400m. Pedrena, Miss Gunpowder and White Moss look the main threats.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 5, 6, 13
Strategy: Fuhryk – 1.5 units Each-Way @ $6.00/$2.25
