Welcome to The Profits form guide for the 2014 Melbourne Cup. Last year Fiorente emerged from a gut busting placing in the Cox Plate to claim the Cup from a fast finishing Red Cadeaux. Fawkner comes through the Cox Plate this year with that exact same gut buster and was an unlucky 7th being ridden home strongly from dead last. Many are suggesting that this could be the lowest rating Melbourne Cup in the past decade, but I believe there are eight or so key chances in the race who rate high enough to make this a very strong contest and one which will rate very well. As past years will show you, never under-estimate the internationals who have taken 2nd place in the last 7 races and taken the win in 3 of the last 7 (I count Fiorente as an Aussie as based out of here). Form can be thrown out the window for the best runners as Red Cadeaux showed last year and Jackleberry the year before that. I will take you through the weather conditions, speedmaps and then finish off with a runner-by-runner analysis of the field. Of course, I will finish off by giving you my tips for the race. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Weather
One of the most important factor for any race. A few trainers and owners of European runners will be hoping for a little bit of rain on the day or the day before to get the sting out of the track. There is a massive cloudfront over WA as I write this and I laughed when I saw a prediction of 0 chance of rain from the BOM. Shock horror I check it Monday 2am and what do you know, upgrade to 30% chance.. how does that happen? The KEY here is estimated 25-40km winds. If the winds are very strong such as 40km, you have to think horses will be favoured sitting off the rail and also off the speed. We may see horses emerge in the final 300m with their runs from the pack. We should in reality get a Good track, but the wind is the key.
Speedmaps
The most important tool for any race is understanding where each horse is expected to be during the run of the race and on previous data, determining how the race will be run by those out the front. Instead of predicting where each horse will position this year, I have given to my best estimation where each horse could settle during the run without surprise.
Melbourne Cup 2014
#1 Admire Rakti – Barrier 8
Coming off an outstanding Caulfield Cup win when travelled the second widest of the lot. Very good barrier today coming out of 8 and a lack of inside speed will mean he has every chance to be positioned positively in the race say midfield or just slightly off. Failed last start over 3200m but previous run was 2nd to Gold Ship who is a benchmark horse over in Japan. Did win a very good race over 3400m 3 preps back also. Only penalised 0.5kg the key here as well for that Caulfield Cup run. Respect this class.
Pros: In-form, kept fresh since CC run, top-class jockey, good barrier
Cons: Top weight (last seven top weights have failed to place), they get more strung out at Flemington than Caulfield
#2 Cavalryman – Barrier 3
A 9 year-old now, you would think his best may be behind him… but his form doesn’t read that way. I keep looking back to that massive win over at Meydan back in March and can see him running a race here if he reproduces that form. It was a massive 5.5 length win and then just lost the next start. Returned last prep with a strong Newmarket win over Hillstar and Pehter’s Moon who have backed up that form and then next start beat Ahzeemah and Brown Panther who also backed up the form.. over 3200m. The end of the prep was a little disappointing 4th… but his last two preps his best rating runs for mine have been first up and keeping him fresh today is key. Craig Williams goes onboard and barrier 3, expect him to get back in the running and hit the line hard.
Pros: Peak rating would have him going close, Good barrier, jockey
Cons: Old, Has to peak, Need luck with runs
#3 Fawkner – Barrier 9
All three runs this prep have been tough and super. 0.1L defeat first up, strong win second up and then 0.2L 2nd in the Cox Plate.. he just keeps delivering. Won’t be sitting last this year and expect him to be on the speed. Barrier 9 gives him every chance to get the best run possible this year and with a distinct lack of tempo in the race, expect him to have every chance from sitting in the top 10 in running. Huge chance.
Pros: Fit, Maps forward, Will stay, class
Cons: Not run beyond 2040m this prep
#4 Red Cadeaux – Barrier 15
Loves running in Australia and at Flemington. Run second in this race twice and his form last prep didn’t suggest a run like that would occur off the 56.5kg weight. Form since has steadily gone downhill. Best run was a 4th to Seismos and Willing Foe at Newbury over 2670m (hit front and fell out of it final 100m). Was well beaten over in Kyoto as well and also at Meydan. A win here would complete a fairy-tale with the horse, but at the current odds, I think he represents significant unders.
Pros: Loves Flemington and proven in this distance, Repeat of last years run goes close. Better weighted this year
Cons: 9YO, Form hasn’t been good enough since last run here
#5 Protectionist – Barrier 11
An out and out stayer, Protectionist’s previous run before heading to Australia was a 3000m Heavy track win beating some good horses. He knows how to carry weight having been 58kg the last 7 runs. His first up run in the Herbert Power was eye-catching with some lightning sectionals to the line off the 59kg. Actually meets Signoff better at the weights today and will be significantly improving with the step up to 3200m from the 2400m there. My only issue with this horse is whether he is good enough this time around to beat the best out here on a dry surface. I can’t poke any holes in the horses dr track form, but up until last start in France, he hadn’t beaten any horse you can really call a star, and even then, neither could you with that race in France. You have to respect him, but you also have to consider who he has been racing against and the odds offered today.
Pros: Stayer, Sit midfield, Good barrier
Cons: First time in this top class, Good surface, Weight
#6 Sea Moon – Barrier 18
A 7YO now, his best days seem to be behind him. His best win was a 3L defeat of Dunaden in 3rd and 4L defeat of Red Cadeaux in 4th over at Ascot. First prep in Aus he was a little disappointing outside of his Herby Power win and a 0.1L 2nd to Araldo the previous run at Flemington. First up run was solid enough without impressing… but he was beaten by Anudjawun! Excuses last start in Caulfield Cup when pulled up with issues. I can’t see it here, past ratings suggest he can if he peaks, but no sign of that for the last two years.
Pros: Has rated high enough in past to win. Lack of speed in race means should be able to push forward.
Cons: Hasn’t rated high enough in past two years. Shown little this prep. Wide barrier.
#7 Seismos – Barrier 1
Just a simple forgive run first up. He is an out and out stayer who will give you solid sectionals, but won’t be suited by a medium tempo and sprint. That is what we had in the Caulfield Cup, they crawled the first 1200m and it just didn’t suit him. Rate on his best runs which I would suggest were on a Dead track. Barrier 1 means he will be able to push up and get a good spot but they HAVE to get off the rails and HAS to have a tough staying test the final 1000m. I think he is a must include in exotics.
Pros: Forward position. Should handle distance.
Cons: Ratings not good enough on past 6 runs. Need to jump well from barrier.
#8 Junoob – Barrier 7
What can we make of the Caulfield Cup run? I thought he was in the perfect position considering the lack of tempo. Two back won the Metrop beating home Opinion and Araldo with Araldo rating very well in the CC. Continues to run well this prep and improve and i’d just forget the Cup run. Issue is never really seen at this distance. Barrier 7 is key to giving him a chance.
Pros: G2 and G1 wins heading into last start. Strong record on Good or Dead. Appreciates a strong tempo.
Cons: Concerns over staying 3200m. Disappointing Cup run.
#9 Royal Diamond – Barrier 6
Last win was October 2013 over this distance at Ascot. Has run two seconds since, both to Leading Light. Last start in the Irish St Leder ran 6th by 12L. Hard to see the form stacking up enough for him to win this even at the weights.
Pros: Will stay the trip and has never missed a place from 3 starts at distance.
Cons: Ratings don’t have him finishing top 3, Handles any surface
#10 Gatewood – Barrier 22
Hasn’t missed a place in his last 10 races. Won on all types of surfaces and best has been shown over the 2400m distance. Up in trip today is a query, but as a Galileo you have to assume he will be able to stay with no issues. Has some strong enough form lines from last prep with wins over Pether’s Moon and Kelinni and a close 2nd to Sheikhzayedroad. This is certainly a step up in class, but the run 2nd over in France last start proved that he has the ability this prep and is running in career best form. Will be sitting midfield and a further forward position would be ideal. Have to consider an outsider chance to run top 3.
Pros: Consistent. Always runs well and goes close.
Cons: Poor barrier. Never run the trip previously.
#11 Mutual Regard – Barrier 12
Won the Ebor under a hold last start at York and up to 3200m looks no issue at all as he was finding his best hitting the line. Wasn’t let go until the 400m mark.. it was very hard to miss on replay exactly how good the run actually was. Beat Lord Van Percy by 1.3L that day but was really 3L if ridden out fully. Maps to position forward today and that looks a key advantage. Loves a good surface and won three back at distance.. loves it. Run top 3 in 10 of last 11 runs.
Pros: Will Stay. Good barrier. Proven. Fit. Damien Oliver onboard.
Cons: Step up in class again.
#12 Who Shot TheBarman – Barrier 13
Group 3 winner in Aus but what did he beat? Very disappointing last start in the Caulfield Cup. Wasn’t the best ride, but I thought the run was disappointing. They will surely try and ride a quieter race today and come from further back.
Pros: Cup winner in NZ at this distance.
Cons: Weight doesn’t seem ideal against this class. Tricky barrier to get right run. Disappointing last start.
#13 Willing Foe – Barrier 17
James McDonald given this ride over Cav Man which clearly shows who the stable thinks is the better horse. Two back at Newbury agianst Red Cad and Seismos he hit the front 400m out passing Seismos but didn’t have the staying power and was passed in the final 50m by Seismos who continued to push away after the line. Big concerns for mine over exactly how good this horse is. Had a year and a half off after a very good 6 length win over Harris Tweet before starting this prep. I think we will see improvement from the two back run.. but the Irish St Leger run wasn’t inspiring.
Pros: Peak run would measure up to placing. Weighted well enough.
Cons: Poor barrier. Concern over staying a true 3200m.
#14 Ambivalent – Barrier 4
The money has come for this horse over the past week to get it into 50s where she deserves to be. All 4 runs last prep were very solid form wise with the most significant at Meydan when 3rd to Gentildonna and My Amblivalent. I note Gentildonna ran a very close 2nd overnight in Japan in a very strong form race. Since that run My Ambivalent ran and won at York and then was 3rd to Flintshire and Cirrus Des Aigles (strong form around both these runners) and then 4th to Thistle Bird & Venus de Milo (strong form also). The key for mine today is she comes in with 54.5kg today and is up to 3200m. She has always looked the type who is actually wanting further and will have ever chance to prove exactly how well she stays. Obviously had the stone bruise issue in training and missed the main goal of the Caulfield Cup, but has to be respected as a live exotics chance in this race at very least on her potential. Worth noting Admire Rakti ran 1L behind Gentidonna in the Japan Cup giving it 2kg. My Ambivalent ran 2L behind at Meydan and missed the start so had to spend a bit extra early… Gets a 2kg turn around on that ‘form’ reference also.
Pros: Has form around the best of the best. Very good barrier. Will be positive.
Cons: Will she stay 3200m? Does she have the gas to stay for 800m? How fit is she after the stone bruise setback?
#15 Precedence – Barrier 20
The old bloke will be racing in Green today not the normal colours. Yucky barrier 20 today. Was putting in some good runs last prep and even this prep but let’s be honest, he isn’t up to this grade. Could rattle home for top 10 finish but not a top hope. Can’t look into it further than that.
Pros: Will stay. Bart Cummings. Weight.
Cons: Not top class. Hasn’t won since Spring last year.
#16 Brambles – Barrier 21
Owners couldn’t be unhappy with the 4th in the Caulfield Cup… but last start in the Mackinnon well beaten out the front.. but forgive the run with the headwind… but that’s not the type of run you want coming into a Melbourne Cup 3 days later. They ran to ‘take the edge off’ so he doesn’t over-race in the Cup… well he won’t do that..! You have to respect his form over the distances 2000m+ this prep and also beat Big Memory and Signoff four runs back.. giving Signoff 5.5kg.. meets well better at weights (2.5kg). I wouldn’t be shocked to see Brambles take up the running here. I do think considering the weights and the price on Signoff that Brambles shouldn’t be a $90 shot, but I also am concerned about the Mackinnon run.
Pros: Stays. Strong form lines. Weighted well. Not beaten far in Caulfield Cup.
Cons: Gut buster last start. Wide barrier. Long prep.
#17 Mr O’Ceirin – Barrier 19
I’m the number 1 ticket holder in the Mr O’Ceirin fan club. That said, he is unproven on a Good surface with 0 wins from 15 attempts. He needs at worst a dead 5 to show his best and a slow track would be even more ideal. We won’t get either. His JRA Cup run was good and will fancy the distance today.. but i’m honestly not sure how he got into this at no.17! No chance sorry mate. Still love you.
Pros: My Bias for the horse.
Cons: Will struggle to beat more than 6 home on a Dead 4 surface… 4 home on a Good 3.
#18 Au Revoir – Barrier 23
How does his form stack up? Not very well if i’m honest. Every chance from out the front first up at Moonee Valley and beaten by Le Roi and Prince of Penzance. Unproven to an extent at this distance and also unproven to measure up in this grade of race either. Weighted well enough to consider a minor chance at breaking the places but I’m struggling to suggest how it can win. Damien Oliver jumped off for a reason.
Pros: Stays on. Low weight.
Cons: Wide barrier. Class
#19. Lidari – Barrier 10
Had every chance in the Caulfield Cup i thought. Was a little further back than expected but still ran well. Weighted nicely again here today but clearly wasn’t the best run there. I have massive queries at this distance for him and I just can’t recommend him staying this distance. Will try position closer than midfield.
Pros: Good recent form. Barrier suits.
Cons: Distance, Last start run.
#20. Opinion – Barrier 14
It’s hard to rate this bloke. He puts in some really good runs and then just doesn’t turn up. He will stay the distance and he likes a long straight, but his won last start in the MV Cup was very average. Ran 2nd to The Offer in the Sydney Cup in Autumn but is that really good enough form? Was strong behind Junoob in The Metrop but just couldn’t get there. A rank outside chance but price looks about right.
Pros: Stays the distance. Light weight. Decent barrier.
Cons: No explosive turn of foot. Hasn’t won in 10 starts.
#21. Araldo – Barrier 24
Eye-catching run in the Caulfield Cup. Continues to improve each run in this prep as well. Last prep beat Sea Moon in the Bart Cummings and then ran a decent 3rd when couldn’t be ridden out in the Lexus to miss a run in the Cup. Seems to have matured even more since last prep and weighted nicely. Have to respect in this race on what we have seen.
Pros: Peaked last start and should again on trends. Suited by distance.
Cons: Widest barrier. Very far back in run. Not won since last year.
#22. Lucia Valentina – Barrier 2
This girl is young being just 4, but Adelaide who won the Cox Plate is a similar age so you can’t just look at the Age to judge maturity. She was huge in the Tramway first up when winning. Too far back in the George Main second up and then was even huger in the Turnbull. Her 3rd in the Caulfield Cup was amazing from such an average ride. She went via the train station to grab a dim sim she was that wide.. wider than the winner. Barrier 2 today will mean she has no excuses.. expect them to try and push at least 1/4 of the pack if not try and sit midfield. Her best is always seen in the final 600m of the race and she has the sectionals to push home. She would love a bit of rain.
Pros: Sectionals don’t lie, she is the real deal. Positive barrier to get a strong position. Loves a long straight. Has the ability to make up 8 lengths in 400m on leaders. Weighted to run well. Measured up last start.
Cons: Still just a 4YO. How far back do they get? Is her very best seen on surfaces with a bit of sting out?
#23. Unchain My Heart – Barrier 23
Has won 2 from 3 at distance and is an out and out stayer. Hasn’t gone close this prep but did finish last prep with a strong 3200m win at course and distance. Didn’t really beat much that day but was a peak beyond what was expected. Will stay. Barrier suits? Not good enough to win though.
Pros: Will stay. Good barrier. No weight.
Cons: Class of this runner. Hasn’t beaten anything good. Will settle far back.
#24. Signoff – Barrier 16
Snuck in by winning the Lexus which was really set up for him. Had 1.5KG on Big Memory and sat off the pace while Big Memory had to deal with the headwind. He has continued to find one horse too good all prep but last start was just suited. Gets into the race with a star jockey onboard and no weight.. but drew a horrible barrier. Will probably sit midfield and will stay the distance. Is he this good though? I have my doubts.
Pros: 51kg. Sits midfield. Gun jockey. Loves the track.
Cons: Class he has beaten in past… there is none. Long prep winding up and up to 3200m. Barrier.
The Key Chances
In no particular order, I have moved all of the runners into one of five categories. Just to explain what it all means, just because a runner is in the Medium Chance pile doesn’t necessary mean they aren’t a good bet. It means they need a fair bit of luck and the right circumstances or there are simply question marks over the horse.
Top Chance
Admire Rakti
Fawkner
Seismos
Mutual Regard
Lucia Valentina
High Chance
My Ambivalent
Protectionist
Medium Chance
Cavalryman
Brambles
Willing Foe
Signoff
Low Chance
Red Cadeaux
Sea Moon
Junoob
Gatewood
Who Shot TheBarman
Araldo
Opinion
Minimal Chance
Royal Diamond
Precedence
Mr O’Ceirin
Au Revoir
Lidari
Unchain My Heart
Melbourne Cup 2014 Tips
Top Pick – Fawkner
It was a very tough job in selecting the top pick this year. Fawkner, Lucia Valentina and Mutual Regard all rate close on my profile of the race. The difference between them is Fawkner and Mutual Regard both can map forward and from their barriers will be in a better position than Lucia Valentina. I just have a little bit of a question mark over how good Mutual Regard is on a strong tempo and staying race while i’m sure Fawkner will be suited and is proven at this track and is in top form. Fawkner is currently a $11.50 chance and I believe on my ratings he deserves to be single figures and a better chance than a horse such as Protectionist.
Best Roughie – Seismos
I’m not a very forgiving person, but Seismos was simply not suited by the tempo of the Caulfield Cup and should really have been pushed too lead that race and to set a solid clip. Up in distance suits him today and from barrier 1 expect him to sit in the lead and set the pace or if there is another speed, sit right off them and attempt to get off the rail early. He has the ability to stay and stay and stay and if the tempo is put on full pace from the 1000m, he will be in it at the finish. He will look as if he is beaten off at the 500m or so.. he had Willing Foe and Red Cadeaux run past him last start and then just stayed on to beat them both.. that is him. At $90 on Betfair currently, he represents a live chance at a big price.
Top 10
Fawkner
Mutual Regard
Seismos
Lucia Valentina
Admire Ratki
My Ambivalent
Protectionist
Signoff
Cavalryman
Brambles
Well that is it! Please share any feedback with us on Twitter @TheProfitsComAu and remember to come back for more racing previews each main racing day of the Spring Racing carnival! It is important to note that tips MAY change on the day due to how the track is playing and any sudden changes in weather conditions (this is Melbourne remember!). Don’t settle for second best with your odds. Look around for Promotions (there will be plenty, I will mention them in my full card preview tomorrow.)
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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