Race 1
The horse we like in Avionics has been scratched. Teen Spirit is an interesting horse at $71 and $8 to place (3 paid on Betfair). It’s win over 1000 in it’s last run was in a GOOD time and in a 6 horse race is great value for a place.
Race 2
Leoncita is great value with some great times and winning 3 of last 4 runs. Will lead up from a good barrier and is great value E/W at $6 and $2 for place.
Race 3
Another great race with a few good chances.
There are two that stand out for us. The first is the short fav There’s Only One. 5 wins from last 6 and back down in grade with almost the same weight. Likes the distance and won it’s last start at Caulfield.
The other horse is Prizum. Up in class after winning over distance last up. Down 7kg and ran on really well here 3 back in a r-82. With no weight on it’s back and barrier 7, expect a very strong run.
Going to see how the market plays out but we can’t take the fav under $3.50 and if Prizum gets to around $7.50 as we expect, snapping that up e/w
Race 4
Most strange race in the middle of a race meet for a long time.
Bit hard to back the first up runners and the Fav does look a very good thing on times. Only other horse at a good price worth a small e/w is Formidable on a low weight and coming off a flemington win on a good time. Should lead this up!
Currently $8.50 fixed
Race 5
Another big race.
Rifleman is an interesting runner. Two back it beat a handy horse It is Written by 4L over 1000m. It is written won last night at MV by 3L!
Last time out ran a handy 56.9 over 1000. Comes in off a good weight and barrier, should try and lead it up or be there at the end by holding out the front.
Mosheen is a beast of a horse and should run really well here. Holding the top weight it ever has and 1/1 from 2 first ups, the dead track does suit but never won from 3 attempts over this distance and 1/3 from 4 at Caulfield.
A hard race to pick but we are going to stick it out with the Rifleman.
Currently $5.50 fixed
Race 6
3 horses stick out here. The first is obvious, the short priced fav in Bel Sprinter. Great times, won 4 from 5, 3/3 over distance and 1/1 at caulfield. Appropriately weighted today with 58kg on board will make it a little harder for Bel.
The second horse we REALLY like is Canali. Has a 1:02.8 to it’s name over 1100 and has been in top form. Barrier 2 will suit and should be in top 3-4 for the whole race. Will be hoping for a upgrade in track to Good (should happen by this race with sun out).
The last one we really like the look of it Unanimously. Has been running consistant times over 1100 the last 5 runs not being 1.5L outside the win.
Canali is by far the value of this race at $15 and we will be backing it to win.
Race 7
Another massively hard to pick race. The big steel being scratched helps a lot.
We completly disagree with the price Bolton has been given today up in class and up 3kg in weight. It should be a $7-8 chance so it is the lay of the race.
We have it between two with Sea galleon and Royal Mail playing this one out.
Our picking for this race is very simple. If the course is still a dead track or worse, Sea Galleon will be our pick. If it is a good track, Royal Mail is our pick. Sea Galleon has never won from 5 starts on Good and Royal Mail has never won from 7 starts on a track dead or worse (is 5 wins 1 place from 7 on good).
Race 8
Hopefully not get out stakes for any of us today because this race is hard.
A handy horse called Extra Zero catchs the eye first up at a reasonable $15. 2 wins 1 place from 7 at Caulfield and good over this distance. May just be a warm up run and not given a run on as its more suited to 1800m+ so sadly we can’t touch it. The same for Module.
The big value in this race is a horse called Still Me. Won at Flemington 10 months ago over 1400 on a similar weight in similar class. Is 3/3 from 8 over Distance and runs well on Good tracks.
Has been racing with much higher weights on it in Darwin and then took a well deserved break. Is 2/2 from 8 first up so can go well first up.
Runs fast and at $17 is huge value here.
Please Note:
Majority of prices quoted are from TAB Fixed Odds.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
