Best Bet: Race 8 No.7 – Golden Penny
Best Value: Race 3 No.10 – Lady Antebellum
We were asked to explain the colours below so here you go!
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to any pick that we will be having a saver bet on or specing for a small amount. Light Blue means we selected the horse last night in some way shape or form and it was Scratched.
Race 1
Really dislike these types of races but there are a few standouts so let’s give it a shot? Make sure you go small.
Mandla with froggy onboard Bel Esprit bred interesting first up runner. Take on trust as we say.
Sabie (SCRATCHED) has some brilliant form going into this race. Expect it to go more forward than the last run.. may even try and lead on it.
Rhandara‘s (4th) last run was quite good. It’s time was great and finished strongly. Expect a mid-race run to be able to take this one.
If i was to back anything here it would certainly be Sabie and Rhandara.
Race 2
Once again, not very keen for this race.
Rowland (3rd) ran a very good race in equal class and distance last time out behind Hanks for a 2nd. Expecting a similar good run.
Cheviot Beach (unplaced) was impressive last time out (not surprising after a close 2nd in Rock of Ages race which is a mega form time right now). Likes a dead track and looks like it will be able to go well over this distance.
Craig Williams has given up a ride on Rowland to get onboard Western Jewel. WJ didn’t impress at Mornington and the dead track is a query for a WA horse.
Drunken Sailor will always give a good ride and should go close here. May start a little too short for out liking with such a big weight onboard.
Race 3
Lady Antebellum is an impressive horse that beat home Glows (who won next up) and Soft Sands (pretty sure you know that horse) in a fast start to finish 1:03.9 on a dead track. Up in class but down 2.5kg from that run with Boss onboard and barrier 3, everything is suited for this horse.
Beldara comes into this race with some impressive runs and times having started $5 or less over last 5 runs. 2 wins 1 place from 3 on dead and 4 wins 3 starts from 9 over distance. Had a good spell and should be better for it.
Silkstone Special is a good horse and has decent times but this looks a little beyond it class wise.
Noisy Feet is a very interesting runner over from USA and hasn’t raced in nearly 10 months. Has some decent times over 1200m so expect it can go close here.
Status Symbol hasn’t won since Spring Carnival of 2010 (we were on her at $50s). Runs fairly well first up and likes the track wet. Should run this one out well.
Finally, Miss Octupussy comes into this off a poor first up run. Has a much better 2nd up record but happy to take it on at this short price again.
Race 4
Starting from the top. Budai (SCRATCHED) is a VERY interesting runner out of the Hayes camp. Group 3 winning horse and 0.1L and 1L 2nds over Group 3 in France over the distance. Looks to enjoy a Slow/dead track and the distance is suited. Dunn onboard and should be running well at big odds.
Black and Bent is sure to have trained on during it’s spell off and will be better for it. Can’t take it here though so watch and see.
Vivid Vixen is suited to longer distances like this so is one to watch. Not sure it has the quality to win this after it’s last 2 runs.
Chasse has been puttting down some quality runs and is 2.5kg better off here against Under The Hat.
Finally, Under The Hat. Deserves to be favourite here after massive runs it’s last two starts. Hopefully a little more value is available before the jump.
Race 5
Red Colossus has a great first up record with 2/2 from 5. The 1/3 from 7 on dead tracks isn’t too concerning either. 1 win 2 places from 5 seems ok considering the class it has been racing but a little too short priced here. Would have expected around 8-10s.
Shadowfax – The horse that just doesn’t win. Has been $10 or under in it’s last 7 starts for no win. It does gain some advantage with down 2kg today but a shocking barrier once again. Something wrong happens every race and can’t have this horse.
Testascana is a horse not to overlook. 4/4 from 10 on dead track and 3 wins from 7 in this class. Decent 2nd up record with 1/3 from 4. Forgive the first up decent run as 1200 is too short a distance. Up to 1400 will suit and expect a very strong run. Only thing that could turn you off is the barrier. If runs at it’s best, wins this!
Playwright is an interesting runner who ran on really well at $101. May be suited to the dead track and one to watch.
New Day Rising is down from Sydney for this race and should try and lead this up with a few of the others. Down 4kg, a decent record on dead tracks and over distance, expect it to be close to the front at the end.
Anudjawun is an interesting runner. You would expect this is just a jump out for such a good horse but you never know with 100k prize money on offer. Anudjawun has a decent first up record with 1/2 from 4 over distance. Interestingly he is 4 places from 5 starts at Flemington so loves the straight. As long as they give it a run, it will go well at a big price.
Folding Gear is coming into this off a good spell. Has been within 2L it’s last five starts and this race isn’t much harder than any of those wins or loses. Once again, an amazing price for such a horse with decent times on the board.
Finally we look at Smokin’ Joey (SCRATCHED). A horse I will admit we have taken on heavily in the past and written off. Down 6kg and coming off an incredibly fast 1:21.9 win off 60kg, we are expecting a big run at an extremely good price from this horse. The barrier is a concern but expect the horse to go back and fly late as long as it gets a run!
Race 6
Helmet and Mosheen are the two obvious horses in this one but you were left wondering when they were both beaten in their last runs.
Proliferate was slowly away and couldn’t run it’s normal race and was unlucky to not win last up but the race time was fairly slow so we can’t be confident on it here.
Sabrage is a very interesting runner for us.. Jumped awkwardly last start and went to the back of the field which isn’t the normal plan and ran on strongly. Should come into this much better for the run and 200m extra will suit.
That’s The One beat Helmet last start but there was a BIG query with the ride given to Helmet but every backer. Don’t expect it to be so easy this time out as Decircles will still be pushing a big pace and Helmet gains 3.5kg on both of those horses.
I could go through most of the field who have a chance.
At the end of the day, Helmet is the quality horse in this and should be winning.
Race 7
Not a massive fan of this race with a number of horses with chances.
Gran Sasso is coming into this race off a great run behind First Command here last start over the same distance. On form runs better on a dead track so will be suited as well. Expect to see him run on late.
We’re Gonna Rock is a horse you cannot back but with 2 wins from 2 over distance, it may have trained on enough to run well here.
Panipique has run from fairly fast times over 1100 and even beat home Facile Tigre 4 runs back. Has been on a big spell and doesn’t have a great first up record so skip for us.
Happy Angel has won very well in it’s last two starts off fast times. I’m not convinced the pace will be up to the same tempo which will work against the horse. Further more, it doesn’t have great winning form on a Dead track. Has claims but seems short right now.
Race 8
Golden Penny comes into this race with 3 wins in a row all over 1.3L and stays unpenalised with 54kg on it’s back. Runs well on any type of ground and won it’s only run at Flemington by 1.5L over 1400.
God Help Her (SCRATCHED) is an interesting runner at a big price. Ignore it’s run two back and the record speaks for itself with a 0.5 and 0.1L loss here at Flemington in pretty dang good times over 1400. Nolen onboard and barrier 3 will give a perfect run.
Raspberries is a horse that has been running well but has a horrible first up record, forget the record and it has a good chance here.
Booklet has been spelling for a fair amount of time and is entering a winable race. Only query is fast times.
I’m Discreeet should find 2-3 horses better than it here
Biancon Rose can win this off her run 4 back but that form has not been shown this prep.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
