Best Value: Race 6 – Under The Hat at $15
Race 1
A race of two horses. Volando was a special for us last week and just finished short of Flyingconi over the 1400 by 0.2L at a good $9 price. With 60k and 3kg claim, is up in class and up in weight.
The other we like is Our Spirits Bay. Back down to perfect distance and down in class, only gaining 3kg this start. Goes well on a Good or Dead track and 3/2 from 11 over distance.
Should be a close finish but we think Our Spirits Bay will be suited here and get the win at $4.60 (2nd)
Race 2
Three horses capable of big runs in this race. Apres is the favourite and deserves it after a very unlucky 2nd behind Royal Mail last up who is in red hot form. Apres best on a dead track and will enjoy the going.
Placement is a very capable type and finishing 3.5L behind Power ORaylee is not bad form as it won last night by 4-5 lengths. Placement comes in off 51.5kg which is a very winable weight but is 1 win from 27 starts which works against it and 0/0 from 3 on the track. Has been running very well the last 3 runs at Flemington and should be in it on a long straight.
The third with a chance is Heez Born Lucky. Won well at MV recently and is 2/1 from 4 over distance. Only concern is up in distance in class and on a higher weight than normal.
Apres here down in class on easier weight at $3 (Unplaced) and also Placement at $9.00 (WON)
Race 3
Spirit Song is the word. not looking elsewhere, this horse is a gun. 1/3 from 4 on the distance, very unlucky last up against a massive horse in Grenada Road. Back down in class and finds an easier race on a suitable weight. Loves a good or dead track and has everything in it’s favour including barrier draw.
$4.70 is a juicy price (WON)
Race 4
Can’t have the fav here. Crap form line IMO.
We like the 4,5,6 in this race. Song Of The Bell has some great times under it’s belt and back down in class here should be much easier. Only concern is 59kg on it’s back.. coming in 3kg worse off than Amour Cache from recent run. Amour Cache, forgive last up slowly away on a trakc that didn’t suit. Has the times and class to win this from the Moody stable who are in shit hot form. Nolen onboard also who knows how to race it. Expect a mid-field run. The last horse is Talor’s Commanbd. Unlucky three and two starts back to not win them and met a much better horse last time out. Will give a good performance.
We like the value of Amour Cache but can’t go against Song of the Bell either. Going with Amour Cache AND Song of the Bell in this race. (Unplaced)
Race 5
Very very very tricky race. Agripp,a Belgietto, Over Quota, Lethal Arrow and Giresun all have huge claims.
Over Quota will be the value of this race after a nice time win at $61-1 last up and is sitting at $15 currently for this one fixed odds.
Lethal Arrow not lost by more than 1.5L in last 5 runs and will be there at hte end for sure. Is 4/2 from 6 on Distance and 2 wins from 2 on track.
Agrippa won last two and 2 before that have been 0.5l and 0.3L losses. Likes the distance and will go well.
We will be backing Over Quota (WON) and Lethal Arrow (4th) with with a Tri (WON)/F4 (WON) on 2,3,4,5,6.
Race 6
A couple of handy horses in this race with great chances. Ben Zena has been in its last four runs (two previous wins) with loses of 2.5L or less in all 4 and has gone off favourite 3 of 4 races. Have to ask yourself if Ben Zena is too short at $3.40. Will get a gun ride from barrier 2 and in first four the whole run.
Under The Hat very unlucky first up so forgive that run. Loves a long straight and was 0.1L behind a handy horse called DECEMBER Draw two runs bak. Yes, a horse that nearly beat a champion and you are getting $15 for it.
We can’t go past Under the Hat here. One of our best of the day. (Photo for 3rd, ended 5th.. Blackbook made up 10-15L from corner to finish)
Race 7
Instalment will get the run of the race and lead this up. Has won 2 of it’s three starts and lost the other by 0.5L to Rescue Mission a very handy runner. Down in class and up 4.5kg in Weight. Ran a massive 1:22.3 last up leading from start to finish and should do it again here.
Value in the $4.50 (Unplaced)
Race 8
Not a fan of Pago Rock or Like An Eagle, their times are just too slow for this race. Expecting a big run from Rorke’s Drift who is slightly up in class and down 6kg after claiming with good times over 1000. Should be suited to step up here.
Paying $8.00 currently. (Unplaced)
Please Note:
Majority of prices quoted are from TAB Fixed Odds.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
