Best Bet – Race 1 – Spirit Song
Best Value Runner – Race 8 – Mourayan
What a great day of racing ahead of us! There are some fairly flakey races. The big ones are extremely hard to pick. Sepoy looks great value for the place having won 10 from 11 and finished 2nd in that loss. Currently $1.60 for the place! Samaready also looks very very good here. It is about the right price but a multi of Samaready place into Sepoy place looks value.
Race 1
Spirit Song has been delivering for us as of late with some great runs and we expect it to continue here at $2. Spirit Song looks too good and will outclass every horse here even with the weight on it’s back. The only horse with a decent chance here to knock off Spirit Song is Placement with a good run it’s 5 last starts. Only concern is 16 runs for 0 wins.. can place just can’t seem to get there at this class.
Race 2
Smackdown is a horse that won first up in NZ over 1000 in a blistering 56.2 seconds. It has proven it can run a fast pace and should be in this race. It Is Written has won it’s last two runs by 3.3L and 4L. This is a big step up in class but it’s times are good enough to win here. Finally, Hot Spin is heavily down in class but it’s times are on par with others in the race so the price isn’t attractive.
Race 3
Patience is an interesting runner out of the David Hayes yard. Looks to be a Good Tracker and can handle a distance especially on breed. Ignore last start and judge on this run. Upbeat has run within 0.5L of winning 4 of it’s last 5 starts. While the weight doesn’t look great on the horse, the price is very good and expect a strong run at a very good price. Finally Now You Know has won 2 of it’s last 4 with 1.3L loss or better in 4 of last 5. Loves a good track and ran a great time last out over 1400. Just not sure it can get the 1800 which it didn’t over it’s last try.
Race 4
Anabandana is 5 wins 4 places from 9 starts at this class. The step up to 1400 will suit more. Faces Soft Sands 2.5kg better off this time and Barrier 1 with a good track will make it a better run. Apart from Soft Sands who is an obvious chance, Shopaholic is a big shot with a great win over Mosheen last weekend in a very fast time. Has not been beaten by more than 1L in last 5 runs so will go close.
Race 5
King Mufhasa has finished 2nd or better in extremely fast run races in it’s last 3 WFA-G1 races. It was unlucky last out when jumping awkwardly and losing by 0.8L. Barrier 6 suits. The other challenger is Pinker Pinker. 2 wins from 3 starts over distance and a WFA-G1 winner last up, comes into this well weighted and no worse than 2nd in last 4 starts. Does have a very poor record first up though with 0/1 from 3. Don’t let this phase you.
Race 6
A massively hard race to predict. We have to start with the obvious. Sepoy and Bel Sprinter are the ones to beat and we have Sepoy on top.. with quite a few contenders. Eagle Falls won well first up but didn’t really beat much home and just won’t find enough today for us. Facile Tigre has won 3 of last 5 races in decent times over distance. From barrier 16 will come from the back. Can come from back late or lead up, that type of horse. Loves a good track! Master of Design also has a great record coming into this race with 3/3 from 6 on Good and 5/3 from 11 over distance with a valid 3rd last up in class. Comes in down 1kg and has a good first up record. Get’s barrier 4 to suit and may try and push for lead infront of Bel Sprinter. Finally African Pulse is a horse with massive potential. Has some great times to it’s name and only 52kg on it’s back. Can run forward or slightly behind and swoop late. Barrier suits.
Race 7
Samaready is the best horse in this race. No doubt about it and was hugely impressive last up. Comes in with a better weight to this and great barrier draw. Expect froggy to give it a great ride. Quite a few horses are being toted up with great chances such as Mama’s Choice and General Rippa but the one that stands out to contend is No Looking Back who put down a blisteringly unlucky run in Gold Coast recently.
Race 8
Mourayan is massive overs here with a worst result of 4th in last 5 runs. Barrier 2 suits forward running and goes well over distance. Good track will suit. We love Glass Harmonium as a horse but 59kg is a painful weight for a horse that doesn’t perform brilliantly first up. Needs to jump well. Would prefer a dead track. Manighar ran well first up over 1600 and 1800 is also a good distance. This is a much harder task of a race but expect a strong run. Has never won in this class from 10 starts. Lucas Cranach hasn’t ran over this distance before but this doesn’t seem that much of a step down. Last 5 runs have been impressive and a win wouldn’t shock here. Finally, Southern Speed has been running well but is way to short here. Only just beat others home last up against Black Caviar and won an easy Listed race before that. Likes the distance but happy to be against it at this price.
Race 9
This race looks to be a battle of the top 4. Vintedge has a poor first up record and looks to be better over a longer distance so we are going to look outside of her. Hi Belle has won 3 of last 5 and was blocked for run last time out. Has a really bad 2nd up record though with 0 wins 1 place from 4 and hasn’t beaten any good horses recently. Slow The Flow ran on very well 2nd at Caulfield but interestingly has a horrible record on a Good track with 0 wins 1 place from 6. Has run well recently but once again doesn’t like it here. Finally we look at Let’s Be Happy. Loves the longer step up in trip to 1400 and really enjoys a Good track. Has placed in last 8 and won 5 of those with 2/2 from 4 record in class. Barrier 8 is better than last time out.
Quaddie
Horses to consider adding
R6: 1,2,6,7,9,17
R7: 9,10,15
R8: 3,4,5,9,13
R9: 2,3,4
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
