Sandown Horse Racing – 24 December 2011
Best Bets of the day
Race 4 – Lets Be Happy $6.80
Race 3 – Desatin $8.20
Doomben Best Bet
Race 8 – King Of The Kongo – Down in class and similar weight. Has ran equal fast time as the $1.90 favourite Rocker. Both will be coming with massive runs late. KOTK is massive $11. Eat it up!
Canterbury – Quick look
Canterbury Race 1 – Trilione
Canterbury Race 5 – Dystopia
Canterbury Race 6 – TitBit
Canterbury Race 7 – Frozen Rope
Canterbury Race 8 – Happy Finish
Lays of the day
Race 8 No.5 – Sheahan at $2.50
Race 4 No.3 – Scarf at $3.50
Race 1
Another of those races where you have no idea. Little Ducati from Bel Espirit and Gowana from More Than Ready stick out as value for us. At the time of posting this, Little Ducati was $1.10 placepot price on the TAB. We have noticed a trend that when a horse is due to win, the TAB tote place pool is a very good indicator.
Back Little Ducati 0.75 Units E/W at $34 and 0.25 Units E/W Gowana at $20
Race 2
Ignore Serene Tanie’s last up run. The pace being set up front was too fast and this should be much slower. The class of this race also looks much easier than the last 2 runs.
Spirit Song comes in off two wins and on a more manageable weight. It will also be hard to hold off here.
Back Serene Tanie 1 Unit E/W at $10 and Spirit Song 1 Unit E/W at $3.80
Race 3
Desatin comes into this race with a more than 1 second better time over this distance than any other and came 3rd in a Open class race last up. Down in class, this quality horse has been racing well since resuming and is in a race it can win. Has also been wanting a Good track. Will be hard to beat and will come late.
Back Desatin 1 Unit E/W at $8.20
Race 4
Scarf is the Lay of the day. Up in class and up in weight, We layed it last time out in an eaiser race and happy to take it on again here. We have this one down to three horses.
The first is Let’s Be Happy. Jumping from 52kg, she will get the run of the race from barrier 6 and having won her last 4 in a row, it up to this.
The second horse is Veewap. Two great runs recently, with a first and second, is suited by barrier 7 and enjoys this track with 1/1 from 3.
Finally, Bocuse is an interesting horse. Posting a 1.22 over 1400 last up, that is a very fast time so this horse is up to a fast pace. Barrier will means it will get a great run on the rails and be there all the way.
Back Lets Be Happy 1 Unit E/W at $6.80 and Veewap and Bocuse 0.5 Units E/W at $8.60
Race 5
This is going to be a VERY fast run 1000m race when you consider how many horses in it like to run up front. The two we like because of recent times and records are Showabitofheart and Lady Antebellum.
Showabitofheart won last up in a lesser race by 4L over 1000 and comes in off a manageable weight. It also has a good 57.9 1000 on dead track 4 runs back.
Lady Antebellum – Forgive her last start and focus on the previous run. A very fast 57.3 from barrier 1. Comes out of the same gate today and has a little bit more weight on it’s back.
Back Showabitofheart 1 Unit E/W at $18 and Lady Antebellum 1 Unit E/W at $12
Race 6
A very hard race to pick but if we were to choose a F4 it would be 10,9,8 and 4 on times.
We like the look of two of these horses over the others and those are Tigress Joy and Any Dream Will Do.
Tigress Joy has put together two impressive runs in a row including the best 1200 time of any horse in this race by 0.6s. Will be hard to beat.
Any Dream will do has been running well in good races recently and won on the 14th at Caulfield in a quality time. Should be there at the end.
Back Tigress Joy 1 Unit E/W at $7.60 and Any Dream Will Do 1 Unit E/W at $6.40
Race 7
We really like two horses here. Gig takes a slight step up in class but has been running consistantly as of late. Will appreciate the drop down in distance and also 3.5KG less on it’s back.
Big Buddie is a horse that posted a great first up win by 3.8L in a decent 1.11.1 time over 1200. Down 1.5kg and given almost a month to train on, it should be ready to take a step up again. Expecting it to race near the front.
*After relooking at this race we think the pace will be very strong and this suits Stratigraphy who has been running constantly fast times and is 5.5kg better off than Infinite Energy today.
Back Stratigraphy 1 unit E/W at $8.20 and Back Gig 0.5 Unit E/W at $20 and Big Buddie 0.5 Units E/W at $55 (probably higher)
Race 8
Get your dart boards out because that is how hard it is to choose a winner in this race!
With that in mind, we are happy to take on Sheahan the favourite here. Sure, it’s last up win was impressive, but the quality of horse in that race was not anywhere this race. Also, not sure it likes a Good track.
We have three horses here we think can take this short fav down.
The first is Fabriano. Exclusive it’s last start and look towards it’s previous start on Good ground. It cannot swim or run in mud. It was 1.5L behind Flying Hula after missing the start. It is crying out for the Good track and comes in off a very winnable weight.
The second is Token Honour. In weaker class and up only 1.5KG after claiming 3kg. It won last start in a FAR better race over a similar distance at Flemington.
Finally, Little Pablo. Last three starts have been great and it will be there at the finish.
Back Fabriano 1 Unit E/W at $40 and Token Of Honour and Little Pablo 0.5 Units E/W at $12 and $20.
Please Note:
Majority of prices quoted are from Betfair the night before.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
