Flemington
Best Bets of the day
Race 6 – ScaredyMac
Race 7 – The Soldier
Race 8 – Elusive King
Race 1
Catalonia was beaten 0.8L by Ferment last up and has a great shot at reversing the form with a 3kg change of weight in it’s favour.
Can’t discount Absolute Spirit or even some of the well bread new starters but you have to go with weights and quality runs in grade.
A tough race with too many unknowns so a smaller stake here.
0.5 Units E/W on Catalonia at $5
Race 2
This race looks pretty straight forward for a Nicholls Court win.. while we don’t disagree, and have been on him the last 5 runs.. he looks very short here.
Beau Vallon has been running consistantly as of late and will appreiciate a fast paced race that we should see here. Will also enjoy less weight on it’s back and has a great shot. Has been calling out for a dead track forever and gets it here today.
1 Unit E/W on Nicholls Court at $2.70 and Beau Vallon at $0
Race 3
With every runner in this race apart from Light Vision stepping up in class, Light Vision is due for the win here.
Excuse the last two starts of Light Vision and you will see a 4L and 2.8L loss to Mourayan and December Draw on it’s record. Those races were MUCH harder than this and if preped right, could find best. Expect Light Vision to lead up today instead of going back.
While Count Lotus may not be up to this grade, it is 1 win 1 place over the distance from 3 and likes a dead track. Ran very well on a decent time in Sale in a much easier race than this so it’s worth a small E/W.
Light Vision 1 Unit E/W at $15 and Count Lotus 0.25 Units E/W at $100+
Also going to touch F4/Tri markets here with numbers 1, 5, 8, 9 and 7
Race 4
We like TurnItUp as much as much as the punters who have it at $2.60… but that is too short in this race. Not sure the 1600 is the best for that horse and feel it wants longer.
Lakedro and Snow Cover on the other hand we feel are suited very well by the weight. Lakedro first up run was great on a heavy track and will be better for that. Has run well in similar/better races recently and will be hard to beat here.
Snow Cover sits too far out the back in races and Newitt will have to give it a run clover to the front today to win. Expect them to sit midfield and bounce late. This horse does find alot on the straight.
1 Unit E/W on Lakedro at $7 and Snow Cover at $5.80
Race 5
Two horses stand out in this race. Legion’s belle won by 3.3L last up in equal class. Comes into this in a good gate to lead all the way and well weighted.
Bee’s Honey won a 15 horse race last up on a dead track and in the previous two on came 2nd and first. Comes into this well also.
1 Unit E/W on Legion’s Belle $8.20 and Bee’s Honey at $21 with a 0.25 unit saver on Evie Rose.
Race 6
Alpha Proxima has claims in this race with an impressive win last up but with a rise in 2kg on Alpha and 3kg claim on Scaredymac, we think Scaredymac will beat Alpha home this time.
ScaredyMac has been within 0.4L in it’s last 5 races (won 2 of those) and will be there again. Off just 50kg today, it’s our pick.
The other to watch out for in this race is Conquering Journey. Good first up run and will be better for that. Has won and placed in only two second ups.
1.5 Units E/W on ScaredyMac $7 and 0.75 Units E/W on Conquering Journey $6. 0.25 Unit Saver on Alpha Proxima
Race 7
Very disappointed with Galbraith being scratched last night. Was going to run from 51kg!!! Don’t worry. We have two great horses in this race with periduki and The Soldier, both with massively awesome strike rates.
The Soldier was our best bet two weeks back before being scratched and gets the nod int his race. It has not seen 53.5kg on it’s back in a long time and should win this by lengths!
2 Units E/W on The Soldier
Race 8
Elusive King was very very impressive last uo and we are happy to back it in here. If you take it’s two last starts, it’s hard to see it losing here.
2 Units win 3 Units Place on Elusive King at $3.40
Please Note:
Majority of prices quoted are from Betfair the night before.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
