Flemington Race 7 – Emirates Melbourne Cup
The Melbourne Cup brings out the best horses the world has to offer and this year is no different. As you would expect with such a race, we cannot take the field down to one distinct winner. We will give you a number of horses that have a GREAT shot including the one we think will win.
No.2 Jukebox Jury – A very impressive horse that won an impressive 2800 race off 62kg last up beating a quality horse in Duncan in Ireland. Before that, it lead from start to finish in a 3000 race winning by 3L (massive win) in a 13 horse field.. which included Americain and Dunaden. Starting from Gate 6 and off 57kg, JJ will get the run of the race and be there at the finish. It has only had the one start on a Dead track which was the last start it won.
No.5 Glass Harmonium – A quality horse down 5kg from it’s WFA-G1 win on the weekend. Gate 23 is a concern and so is the distance, there is query if GH will last.. but we have a feeling GH will last the distance. Expect GH to be at the front on the turn threatening to win
No.22 Tullamore – Gaining a 5kg advantage from it’s last start 2nd to Americain, Tullamore is in excellent form and should run well over the longer distance.
No.10 Mourayan – A very impressive run behind Glass Harmonium on the weekend. Down to 53.5kg, will run home hard.
No.12 Red Cadeaux – Has had two good recent runs behind Jukebox Jury off 62 and 59kg. Starting form 53.5kg this run. The eye catching run on RC’s record is from 62kg against a 7 horse field in a WFA-G3 in Ireland, winning by 9 lengths over 2810.
No.17 At First Sight – Has Hung In the last two runs and not given it’s best even though it came hard from the back in both runs. Off 52.5kg, it will be giving a huge run in the finish.
No.23 Niwot – Impressed over 2500 on the weekend winning by 3L in a sub-standard field. Came from the back which will be important in this race. Must consider.
No.1 Americain – The defending champion. Americain is severly handicapped this year by weight and will find it hard to come from the middle of the field to win this. Should figure into it near the end.
No.9 Lucas Cranach – Ran from the back of the field to finish 3L behind in the Caulfield Cup. Not the best form to come off but down to 53.5kg, we have to consider it may run a good race.
No.10 Mourayan – Ran a great 2nd behind Glass Harmonium last up and off 6.5kg less should run a good race.
Our picks
1st Jukebox Jury at $15
2nd Red Cadeaux at $40
3rd Niwot at $10.50
4th Americain at $5.40
Trifecta
2, 23, 22, 1, 12
Race 1
The three standouts in this race are Alezan Thunder who won first up by 2.8L in an 8 horse race jumping as $2 fav. The second horse is Languish, an Exceed and Excel horse which won it’s barrier trial by 5L. The third horse is Whitten’s Brew which won a barrier trial by 3L.
All have great form but you can’t go past a win on the board in Alezan Thunder who is currently trading at $7.20.
Race 2
Foxstar deserves to be the favourite in this race after a great 3L win last up. Before that, it got fairly unlucky in the last two runs getting blocked in both runs costing it the wins. Outside of Foxstar, look into Influential Miss who is a quality mare. Finally, Vintedge has the form to win so don’t dismiss.
Foxstar currently trading at $4.60
Race 3
Perfect Pecs ran a very good race at the front in the Geelong Cup getting run down and losing by 2L. In weaker class and the only runner to not gain weight, it should run very well.
The other two we like in this race are double figures. Above Average required a vet exam after not running on last run. Quality horse better than all others in this race at it’s top form. Expect a bold run for the 20s you are getting.
Hume is the other interesting runner. Beaten out of a Melbourne Cup place two years ago by a horse called Shocking, it hasn’t made the trip and stayed down here not to run well. At 48s, we are willing to take a bit of action also.
You are currently getting $8.50 for Perfect Pecs, $19.50 for Above Average and $48 for Hume.
Race 4
There are several good chances in this race. Hinemoa won last up for us at 25s at caulfiueld and has won 3 of it’s last 4 races with the only loss by 1L.
Sophie’s Spirit comes into this race with big claims from barrier 1. It will lead the majority of the race. Pontiana has great form in a 1.5L loss to Hurtle Myrtle 3 runs back and a 0.3L loss last start.
The other horse with major claims is Divorces, coming in from a 4th in 3F-GP1 level.
On the prices, we are happy to take the major value offered by Hinemoa with $15. We will also be taking a bit of Sophie’s Spirit at $40’s. Expect it to trade into 10s in play.. good back to lay horse.
Race 5
Karuta Queen deserves to be favourite here starting at $1.60. Going on times, African Pulse can match it with Karuta Queen. Both will be going forward and fighting it out hard. We are happy to take on the Queen by backing African Pulse at $5.20
Race 6
Secret Liason comes into this with some great form after a 0.1L loss to Belle of the court after jumping awkwardly at Caulfield and 2.3L loss to Sabrage 4 back (finished 3rd in Derby).
Other’s with claims are Shadow West, Disputes and The Fairy’s Kiss
We are happy taking Secret Liaison at $8.60
Race 8
We have three horses with a massive chance in this race. The first is Extra Zero. Finishing second to Foreteller last up in a Group 3 and two before that, beat Avienus (second to December Draw in a quality Group race recently). The form speaks well for Extra Zero.
Lamasery ran well last up in a Group 1 race behind The Verminator finishing 3rd while winning it’s two previous runs in Group 3 company. Justified at the price. Finally, La Rocket is quality horse that would spank all of these at it’s best. Has run well recently and off 53kg should be there in the end.
We are going to take Lamasery Large E/W in this race at $5.60 with a medium E/W on Extra Zero at $12
Race 9
Conservatorium will be leading this race from barrier 1 and recently ran a very fast 1:09.3 on a dead track off similar weights. It comes into this having won it’s last two and down in class. The best part is the price – $18
The other big chances in this race are Perturbo, Parables, Facile Tigre, Utah Saints and Screen.
Race 10
Too Deadly ran a handy 5th behind Testa My Patience recently after being blocked for a run. Down in class and only up 2kg makes it a very interesting runner.
Chateau Fort comes into this race off a very good last prep which included a 3Y-GP3 win over 1600. Back down to where the owners think it will run the best, it may be worth risking.
Bagman has very impressive claims having won the 5 runs in a row before his last up requiring a vet exam. Best to forgive for that run.
The other danger is Under the Eiffell who won by 2L even after sufferring interference near turn and hanging in. Up in weight is only issue.
A very hard get out stakes. We are going to risk Chateau Fort for a medium E/W at $17 and place a medium E/W on Bagman at $6.
Please note
Majority of prices quoted are from Betfair.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author will not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
