Looking towards Sydney as the main meeting this week after a great previous weekend. Another hard meeting but there is always nice value to be had. We also look towards Moonee Valley with some races we like at the bottom of the page.
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Race 1
One of those races where something might just surprise you.
Start at the top. Doubtfilly has won 3 in a row and is now stepping up to the real races. Don’t think the last run reflects how it will go here. Should be in it at the end but don’t think it can win.
Cavalry Rose comes into this race with some of the best form lines going around. Include that with Cassidy on board and you have a great mix. Will run a very strong race.
Ichihara has not won a race of this quality but it’s first run time over 56.2 would give some quality 3 and 4 year olds a run for their money. Looks to have been set for a race like this. Watch it win last up leading pretty much the whole way. It found ALOT in the straight. If backing, lay it at small prices as extra 100m, it may die on its run – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing/429232
Kyria boxed on nicely but doesn’t seem to have enough in the tank for this.
Shes a Fox was ‘ok’ first up but has NO claims to be favourite here. She is a certain lay after a 1.8L win in a normal time in an ordinary field. This is the testing material and she should be found wanting.
One at big odds with a big chance is Varanasi. Watch it run 4 wide the whole race on a track that didn’t suit back runners, it ran the best of the bunch out the back – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing/431247.
Race 2
This race looks all too easy for All Too Hard. It’s first two runs were impressive. The horse looked at it’s best over the 1400 so the step back may be a little harder but either way, it’s times are blistering and it’s two wins were great. Can’t back anything else in this race.
Race 3
African Pulse comes into this race after a great run over a speedy time 3L behind Hay List after losing a plate in running. This is a very winable race and African Pulse will be there at the end.
Anise is a class horse returning from a 5 month spell. Is 1/2 from 3 first up and is 2/3 from 6 at distance. Has a 2nd by 0.5L to Foxwedge to her name and has impressed in almost every previous run. Will go well here if trained on.
Sacred Pins is a quality horse who has been stepped up to a MUCH harder race than it has ever run in. On times it will run out a fast race well and has a good shot.
Famous Seamus has had a 4 month spell and has won all 3 starts. Times show it can run a fast race but don’t fancy it in this quality.
Unpretentious is a horse with huge potential. It’s last run it had no luck at all and couldn’t get a run. It looked to have a huge amount on the tank.
Hallowell Belle is a horse that performs but just can’t get there. 11 starts from 9 placing and a win shows the consistency. This race looks to be much stronger than it’s last run and am happy to be against it.
Finally, Ever The Same first up after a spell ran a very old race and time. Might be one to watch out for.
Race 4
A race of three horses and it will all depend on how the ground is playing out
Rain Affair comes into this race off a very valid Group 1 run against the countries best horses and has been running amazingly well since it’s last spell and will enjoy any type of race conditions.
The two horses with chances are Bel Sprinter and Elite Falls. Both have an amazing turn of foot and warrant respect here. Bel Sprinter will be ridden a little closer to the front here hopefully.
Elite Falls first up run was beautiful. Cassidy onboard will give it a solid ride.
Race 5
Once Were Wild is a Group 2 winning horse so this isn’t beyond it. The run first up was just a prep for longer races like this. Second up record does include a win which is handy and the horse is 2 wins from 4 starts at the distance.
Vintedge is back down to a winable grade. Form behind Spirit Song is strong but will have to improve to win this.
Fill The Page won last up extremly well in a harder race and comes in with only an extra 2.5kg onboard. Looks very well suited and barrier is fine.
Good first up run for Fibrillation. 0/0 from 3 2nd up though which is interesting. Could run well.
Finally, Foxstar is a horse that is looking for longer distances than his last 3 starts. Win won’t shock but do think this is a hard task.
Race 6
Let’s start with one of our early week fancies. Ironstein started at a huge $71. Has a 1/1 from 4 first up record with 2/2 from 9 at the distance and 4/2 from 18 at class record. Last start won a group 3 (longer distance). The price was all wrong and followers smashed it into $51. Currently $26 on TAB fixed. Will run a good race!
Pied A Terre is a consistent horse that will be there at the finish. People are counting it out of this but has run very well every run. Win wouldn’t shock at all.
Star Of Octagonal has put down some great recent runs and is 3/2 from 8 at distance and 2/3 from 10 at class. Placed or better last 4 runs and this is the hardest class for sure. Only query is the ground.
Speediness is a horse with a huge amount of talent. Was given a good ride but no luck last up and should find a way through here as starting from barrier 16. Form line of beating Pago Rock home is very sound.
Niagara is a very inconsistent horse and you never know what your going to get. Ignore the 17L GP1 fail and the horse has been within 1.5L the last 4 starts in equal class. 53kg is a GIFT and expect they will take the horse forward.
Finally we come to Happy Trials. Down 2.5kg from it’s 1L 3rd to Dance With Her who came out last Sunday and won again. The form line checks out. This horse is very consistent and is over the odds big time.
Race 7
Geez this is a hard race but lets give it a go!
Let’s start from the bottom up! Silent Achiever comes into this after 4 wins in a row including one in this level. This filly is all class and will be hard to beat.
Laser Hawk is a handy horse also with a close up 3rd to Mosheen last up 0.5L. Was slowly away which could have cost it the win. Extra 400m only question
Ambidexter is a horse that has run well over 2k in a 3Y-GP1 in its last prep and has come back strongly with 0.8L 4th last start. Don’t discount it here.
Said Com put down a gun run last start 2nd to Mosheen 0.3L.. and it is surprising that Said Com is double the price of Laser Hawk who it beat home last start. Barrier 20 is a bad draw but shouldn’t be the death of the horses chances. Breeding suggests it will go the 2000
Highly Recommended is a good horse that has been running well. This is a step up in class and a big field. Not sure it will be able to beat all of these horses home. Has a shot.
Finally, Sangster will try and lead this from start to finish and Nikolic will give it every chance. Think it will find a few will pass it but if the track bias is majorly favouring a front runner, might be a good bet.
Race 8
Another hard race with many chances.
Herculian Prince ran very well last start and seems to be wanting a distance similar to this. There is more class in this race than the previous one though.
Precedence is a horse that has been disappointing it’s last 15 or so runs but it actually put down a strong run last start. Down in grade and 0.5kg better off, it has a good 3/1 record from 7 starts at distance. Really like his chances here.
Older Than Time is a horse that loves a good distance race. Ran well last up and will run on strongly here.
Showcause is a very interesting runner with a 4/5 from 15 record over distance with it’s last run in a Group 2 in NZ over this distance. This is a huge step down in grade and the horse ran 2L behind Dunaden in the Geelong Cup. Wouldn’t be shocked if it won but can’t back.
Coliseo is a runner with great form lines. If Fill The Page wins in the eariler races then it’s 0.5L run two back behind it is a great form line. The horse has finished 1st or 2nd in 6 of last 9 runs and never ‘out of it’. Likes the distance and is 3/4 from 7 on dead if we get that type of track. Oliver on board, watch for it!
Finally Permit is the favourite in this race. Can’t have it at the price and not impressed with it’s recent form compared to others in this race. Will go close but seems a big step up at the price.
Race 9
A few good horses in this race.
The first we are going to start with is coming off a 5 month spell in Kanzan. 4 wins and 6 places over the distance from 15 and 5 wins 5 places from 19 at class means it has the class to win this. Ignore last two starts. Should run well. Only concern is terrible record on dead tracks.
Curtana is a classy horse with a 1.3L 2nd behind Sepoy to it’s name and a 1.5L 7th in Group 1 two runs back. It may be suited here but feeling is that the weight is too much and the track won’t suit with the weight.
Gybe comes into this race with a 4/3 from 10 record at distance and 4/2 from 8 on dead which ranks very well here. Times are also good. Not sure on what tactics they will pull out for the run but expect it to be mid to front. Has been within 1.5L in 4 of last 5 runs also.
Divorces is a horse that runs well first up but feeling is this is too short with 0/1 from 3 at distance.
Sugera is the most interesting runner here. Won 4 of 5 this prep including some extremely fast times. If the pace is on then the race will be suited to Sugera. Big overs.
Moonee Valley
Race 1 – Placement. Great win last up and 0.5kg worse off. Ran 3rd behind Rock of Ages and Spirit Song before that and both are quality and winners after that. Is suited by distance and KM onboard is BIG plus.
Race 4 – Lady Antebellum won over in this class with 1kg more on it’s back 3 runs back. Hopefully they take it forward again and it wins. Glows who it beat home won the next race it ran and 3rd was a horse called Soft Sands
Race 7 – Laspiel is a horse that gained a slot in our blackbook. Loves the MV track and is running off 52.5kg which is insane! Has some great times and wins to it’s name and looks ready to take the step up! Testacana is the one it will need to hold out.
Race 8 – FreeReturn is suited to the track and drawn a perfect barrier. Great place odds also if that’s all your looking for.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
