We were on fire last night at MV picking 5 of 6 of the last winners after a slow start. Funny that our Big 6 was let down by the $1.50 fav! Onto Caulfield where we can see a fair bit of value available!
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to any pick that we will be having a saver bet on or specing for a small amount.
Race 1
If having a bet in this race, go very small.
Not a fan of these races with little form behind them.
Only going to mention one horse here in Dashitude. Ignore last start and count on two previous runs. Times are solid and from barrier 3 should be able to go forward and take the lead or a handy sit. The price seems value.
Race 2
Let’s start at the top with one we are very keen on in Assertive Eagle. 1.3L loss to Empress Rock in a much harder race and with the claim, comes into this 0.5kg better off! Empress Rock ran on very well at MV last night and won easy to give the form merit. The form out of the MV Glows race 2 back is also quite strong. Barrier 6 is suited to the horse also. Is 1/1 from this distance as well.
Secret Liaison has some ok form lines also behind Spirit Song who won well last night also, but could only get within 2.8 of it. With the current weight, can’t back this one in today.
Sweet Ella sat back in the race last start and came back at them well when you consider no one really made up any ground. Will give a good run but the toppie is much better off at the weights.
Spelldancer comes into this race REALLY well. With only 51kg on it’s back, that is 4.5kg down from it’s last run at MV putting down a good time. Has been running very well this prep and could find best here.
We are keen on both of the picks on this race so the mix in colours gives you an idea of the type of bets we are putting on both horses.
Race 3
Disappointing race with 5 scratchings making this a 7 horse race.
Miss Octopussy deserves to be a short priced favourite after a very impressive win last up but doesn’t have the best record on this track. Mallyon is a handy rider claiming 3 to get it within 0.5kg of the previous run.
The main threat in this race is Invincible Lady. The horse has put down some respectable times recently and Duffy will be riding it at 51.5kg. When you consider the lowest it has run at is 56kg recently, this is a very handy claim.
Delabombell comes down from Sydney and is also racing off a low weight. This does look slightly beyond it though with no real fast times on record and 0/0 from 2 in class record.
Bolisimo Miss meets Miss Octupussy 2kg better off but we can’t see it turning around the 2.8L
Fabulist is a quality horse who has run on well in the majority of it’s recent runs. Looks to have a chance but not sure it is well weighted here.
Race 4
An interesting race. Let’s start with Two Hills. The price looks value here. The horse raced erratically which is a stewards comment which is fair. The horse went 4L clear and put on some big speed in the race (won in under 1:23 on a dead track). The horse boxed on real well at the end and just stayed. With a shorter straight at caulfield, it could be suited. Also have to feel it will be suited by a Good track. 1/4 from 8 at distance suggests the $11 currently is value with decent statistics in class also. Remember that it finished 1.8L 3rd in a better race last up and only 3.5kg up in weight. 5 runs back 0.4L 2nd to Avionics.
Star Of Giselle put down a great run over 1100 last up. The horse is very off and on with 3 of it’s last 5 runs being good and 2 of them, in much higher company, being bad. The big question is if the horse can run our the 1400. 2/3 from 8 in this class is strong.
Cute Emily is back down to winable grade. It seems to be more suited to the 1400 than 1600 and will lead up from barrier 3. Expecting a bold run.
Sensational Report has been pretty good the last 4 runs out in slightly easier class. The only concern on it’s runs are the times being put down. You might also be concerned about the 0/1 from 6 at class but when you consider 2 wins in a row (was 3 from 29 runs), it is in form.
Frenetica is a quality horse which has been underdelivering as of late. Can’t have it.
Sheila’s Star put down a decent run over 1410 with a time that is very respectable for this class race. While that is the case, the price doesn’t look right to us. Would want longer odds.
Tantrum is one not to ignore but feel 1400 isn’t what it’s looking for.
Jetta is down in class and up only 0.5kg after a VERY strong run at Geelong last up. Not sure what to think of the horse.
Big step up in class here for Los Skybo but Nikolic is a great rider to have onboard. Times just seem a little too slow here though.
Race 5
The hardest race of the day to pick.
Let’s start with the ‘spec’ of the race. Auld Burns has a 2 win from 2 first up record. It has won at this distance before also. The horse has some decent records and could run a very good race here. Have to spec this.
Light Brigade lost a Group 3 race by 0.2L 3 runs back. On that form, may have a chance. That race was a very fast race as well. Could be a sneaky chance.
Rockpecker was very impressive last run and has been handicapped appropriately. After claim it only goes up 1kg. Have a feeling that it will not appreciate a good ground though if that’s what we get.
The 4 big chances in this race for us are Shewan, Luck San, Pago Rock and Agrippa.
Starting with Shewan. 2/1 from 6 over this distance and 1/1 from 3 first up. 5 month spell is normally good. Won a Group 2 above Tanby (Remember Dance With Her formline we looked at was behind Tanby). Should box on really well.
Agrippa is a horse with many claims. Starting at 51kg with Katie Mallyon onboard, will get every chance. has won at Caulfield before (3 back) and is 4/2 from 9 over distance. Expect it to be rode closer to the front than last start. It’s last 5 runs have been for 2 wins and 3 loses of 0.5L or less! The horse has never won on Dead but loves a good track so look for a good track if you want to back it.
Pago Rock is similar to Agrippa. 1/2 from distance and 0/2 from 3 at class but 3 wins in a row followed by 0.1 and 0.2l loses, this is a horse that keeps going. Best yet, it is down to 53kg (1kg less than last start).
Luck San deserves to come n as favourite here. Beat home Smokin Joey by 3.3L who has come out after that and been very impressive himself. Luck San is slightly up in weight which works against it but has a win in this class and 4 of last 5 runs have been a win or 0.2L loss. In all 6 runs it has had, it has never finished worse than 5th.
Race 6
Great to see one of our favourites Amaethon returning here. This horse runs on very well first up with a 2/3 record from 6 including a first up win here last prep by 1.3L over First Command in a 1:08.2 1200m time. With the speed or Zedi Knight in the race, we could be looking at a similar speed upfront. Horse i 2/2 from 6 at Distance and enjoys Dead or Good ground. Weight is the only issue but should have trained on enough to handle this.
Valentine Miss is a talented horse with quality runs under it’s belt but seems to not be able to win races that are of fast times. As above, Zedi Knight should make this a fast race so can’t be on it.
Diplomatic Force was MASSIVE last start in the Group 1 won by Woorim. When you consider the horse was blocked for a run also, this is great form to bring into this race. Will go back and come late.
Stratcombe is coming into this race with a lack of form lines. Sure it has been putting down ok times but at sub-standard events. Very happy to take this horse on any day of the week. It won’t be given an easy run out front like it’s used to.
Zedi Knight is an old war horse with a good record over this distance and an ok record at track. It just seems to be going around as normal but I can’t see it getting up here.
Finally Stanzout can’t be ignored with a good first up record of 3/1 from 8. Didn’t win last prep and 56.5kg seems to be too much on it’s back here.
Race 7
Horrible race for the organisers to just chuck into the quaddie line.
Specter is a horse that has underdelivered yet been consistant. 60kg on it’s back is fairly harsh here but the horse can’t be discounted. Should go close here in a lesser race.
Practiced is a very interesting runner. Up in class and down 5kg, it ran a very fast 1:35.8 over 1600 first up and seems to be wanting more out of Encosta De Lago.
Rock Robster, apart from having a cool name, won an equal class race last up in a decent time and Katie Mallyon takes up the ride claiming 3kg to give it a 3kg advantage from last start. You are getting a very reasonable price here!
Can’t discount Flashy Fella, Backbone or Kukri here either.
Race 8
The lucky last. Some value odds to be had.
Let’s start with Anudjawun. Never won at this distance from 6 starts (4 places) and only 1 place from 6 starts at the track. The horse has only ever won once as well. Ran well last time out but can’t back on this track.
Coldens Choice Won very well two runs back. Feel like it just won’t be suited to a Good track if we get it and the extra weight will hurt. Will have a shot but can’t back it here.
Fawkner comes into this as the favourite. We are happy to take this thing on. The weight is right on the horse but this is a class race it isn’t up to.
Down to the horses we really like.
We have all the time in the world for Prizum. 51kg after claiming, it comes into this very well. The only problem is a very poor record on good tracks. May find its best here but barrier 15 is a big concern.
Constant Force is a horse that has won by 5L, 4L and 2.3L in it’s last 3 wins (4 races). The only lose required a Vet Exam. Down to a low 54kg, the horse i wanting a Good track. Expecting a slower run race than two back.
Cheviot beach is a horse with a lot of talent. Ignore last start and you have the horse right in this. May be wanting a Dead track but 2/4 from 6 at distance is a compelling case.
Finally, Chasse. Comes into this with the same weight on it’s back. Will position closer to the front than last run and it’s last win came here at Caulfield. Should run a solid race.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
