Welcome to the Racing write up for Saturday. As always, this is only a guide and you should combine your own form with our thoughts if you are placing a wager. Confidence factors are very important in our write ups and most of all remember that if we put down two horses in a race to have a bet on, that means we are on both. Good luck and happy Punting!
Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 2 – Our Miss Jones
Wowie. What a run from Our Miss Jones to win at $6s. She certainly got very lucky with a horse drifting out on the turn to give her a split.. held the rails as far as needed and let done in the final 100m to win. Check out the run here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing/483251
Best Value
Moonee Valley Race 7 – Guru Bob at $14/$3.90
Guru Bob put in a solid run and was in it up until the final 200m when Duffy tried to split a gap that simply wasn’t there, suffered interference and stood up on the horse costing it any chance of a place or even 4th. He got a 10 meeting ban for the ride. Guru Bob should have placed.
Best Lays
1. Moonee Valley Race 1 – Tyanna
Unplaced
2. Moonee Valley Race 2 – Chivvy
3rd
3. Doomben Race 1 – Falvelina
Unplaced
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Moonee Valley Race 1
An interesting open to the day. Commanding Jewel is odds on and we are happy to look elsewhere for the winner. In the wet, this simply seems under the odds especially with a field of winners.
Starting with mama’s Choice. Good win first up at Caulfield but not sure the horse will be suited at Moonee Valley. No form on wet, first up from Hayes yard and previous two runs at much harder class didn’t show much at all.
Fandom is a very interesting runner. Simply forgive the last start over 210M more than is best for this horse on a very heavy track. Should get a slow track today and be able to go to the front and put in a very solid run. Times are sound and could pinch this.
Flying Hostess isn’t the worst in the race. Has some ok times but didn’t handle the slow two back.
Nicskioffski is racing a tough task here on a wet ground again. Times are ok but happy to look elsewhere.
Showmya Miss first up won very strongly for Price. Price wouldn’t put the horse in here without a valid shot. The horse won by 1.3L and even lost a plate during the race AND was slowly away. Showed a lot of heard and the step up is no problem. Expect a bold run.
Finally, Commanding Jewel. Trialled well and won by 1.5L first up in a 7 horse field from the front in a fairly average time. Odds on is simply unders and we are very happy to make her a saver at best.
Confidence: 80%
Commanding Jewel was simply too good here. Flying Hostess showed a lot of promise and is wroth following next start. Fandom simply had enough and done for this prep
Moonee Valley Race 2
Showup didn’t show much last start and the run before lost a plate. The heavy didn’t seem to suit the horse either time and with a mid to back run expeted, not sure from the weight can show enough.
Draw Forward won well first up at Morphetville and will try and win this from start to finish from barrier one. Issue is how she will go on the wet but suspect if she gets a slow run up front, will be hard to pass.
Our Miss Jones is head and shoulders the class horse in this race. 2.8L 2nd to Atlantic Jewel, 0.5L behind Glows at the track and 0.4L the previous run behind invest here also in a 3Y-GP1. This is certainly a step down in class and the horse is proven at course and distance. The only issue will be the wet track.
Barbie’s Bombshell is 4 wins from 4 on heavy tracks but we are expecting a slow track. If heavy, will be a very good chance but other than that, happy to be against.
Flourishing has ran two solid races this run but seems to be outclassed.
Delegance has been running decently this prep and will be heading forward which is what you want. Well weighted with 53kg on back and is 1 win from 1 on slow. Step up in class is issue.
Chivvy is a horse that has won at Rosehill before and ran 0.3L 3rd in a 3YO behind Rescue Mission. If trained on could run well.
Finally, Graskop could also run a good race if produces best form.
Confidence: 85%
As posted in the best bet above, Our Miss Jones won with class. 2nd was Draw Forward who was pinched on the line. Perfect handicapping of this race!
Moonee Valley Race 3
Storm Burst proved us wrong last start. We were happy to be against her off 59kg and we paid the price with a 5L win. Up in class here but this does still look very winable. Expect a similar run. Interestingly, has not missed a place in last nine starts and does enjoy wet ground. Only concern is 0 wins or places from 2 at MV.
Rock Princess is a super star in the wet but last start at course on slow didn’t have the best run in this class. Comes into this up 2.5kg from that run and also up 400m in distance. Is certainly a chance but be happy to be with others.
You have to ignore last start of Midnight Pearl. Didn’t handle the heavy and looks better weighted here. Will run a solid race.
Good recent run by Lucky Angel but this is a big step up in class.
Vihanna Victory was 2nd and 5L behind Storm Burst last start but still ran well. Worse on weights but back to slow can’t count out if dream run.
Dublin Darlin could run a very solid run off 51kg.
Pyroclastic ran a very good time 2000 last start in the Country. Certainly don’t discount on this time.
Confidence 70%
Storm Burst started a very short $1.75 on the day but won with absolute ease. Nothing else to report from the race.
Moonee Valley Race 4
This is a very hard race to pick as there are many chances.
Mr Tipsy has put in some good ruins recently and does enjoy a slow ground. Off 58kg is weighted well here and if finds best can win this. Has placed at track before.
The Jungle Boy is hugely interesting. Last three runs on slow ground over similar distances in harder class has run first first and second in New Zealand. First up in Australia is VERY well weighted off 56.5kg. Only big issue is that he is best ridden cold and MV isn’t really suited for a horse like this. Can still go very close.
Crab has been hot and cold all prep having ran two strong seconds but has gone a little sideways recently. Down in class here may be suited better and weighted ok.
African Heat has won four of last five runs with a second last start by 5L. Weighted nicely but this does seem a big step up in class.
Crafty Cruiser keeps letting us all down. Had his best opportunity last start and failed. Hasn’t run well on slow all prep and happy to dismiss until gets a dead or better track.
Flaming Moe could run a solid race having won in Adelaide on distance and surface.
Shiny Buttons is a huge chance here. X2 firsts and X2 seconds in last five starts. 54kg seems very solid and the step up in distance will suit on a slow track. Dayita is a big form line.
Get the feeling Min River is outclassed here.
You Think So is a heavily overrated horse. Hasn’t won on a wet track previously. Happy to be against him here.
Border Express won well last up. If improves head and shoulders has a chance off last two runs.
Confidence 75%
Shiny buttons battled on gamely but did too much work around the corner and it was left wide open for African Heat to sprint through late. Quality run and one to follow. Shiny Buttons certainly worth following again as it was a strong 2nd. The Jungle Boy might be looking for further. You Think So handled the ground more than expected due to going from Slow to Dead for this race.
Moonee Valley Race 5
General Rippa was very disappointing first up but we really don’t expect more from hayes runners. They either win or come dead last. This looks too tough for him.
Rusambo won very well first up at course, distance and on the same surface in an easier race. Down 4kg from that win in a solid time. Will need to sit closer to the front today but has a very good chance as long as slow track.
Maury ran well last prep but is a question here on if will handle the ground. Times are solid from runs and could find best. Seems suited to a longer straight though and a fast tempo.
Awesome Bro ran a solid race winning on a Heavy track over 1000m. This is a big step up in class and we are happy to be against.
Liberty Rock has some very good form lines coming into this race with a 1.5L 2nd to All Too Hard. If comes back half as good as last prep, wins this.
Dominant put in a huge run first up last start and could produce another solid run ehre if trained on. Don’t dismiss at all!
Tennessee Wills would have to have trained on big time to be in this.
Right to Roam looks out of this on form.
General Peekay failed first up but won a maiden easily by 4.5L. I am happy to be against the horse here due to the same track and Planet Voyage form not proving very succesful.
Confidence 78%
Liberty Rock didn’t produce the form we expected. This either tells us it hasn’t trained on or All Too Hard isn’t as good as most have toated him up to being. The latter is probably true when you consider the last two runs of ATH. Rusambo put in a blistering late run to win this race. Certainly worth backing again next time. Being down 4kg in this race helped a lot.
Moonee Valley Race 6
Atomic Force put in some very solid runs last prep and ran very well in Group 1s in New Zealand winning one and coming second in the other including on a Slow over 1200m. Will go very very close here.
Anabanada was great in New Zealand but hasn’t produced all that has been expected when coming over to Australia. She does look suited to the 1000-1200M races but has never ran on a wet track. Really like this horse but can’t be on it big time here.
Unanimously ran well behind FreeReturn last start here who produced a big run last week and won. Unaminously has never won on a slow ground but has always gone very close. Will run well here.
Rocking Force is another coming into this race with some very strong form lines. Once again, has placed all 3 runs on slow but never won. Has won 1 and placed 2 at track so enjoys it here. Has never won first up but always run well.
Veewap is interesting back over the 1000m.. Has 2 wins 1 place at distance and 2 wins 2 places first up. 2 wins 1 place from 5 on slow.
Broken won massively two back at Flemington beating a quality field. Didn’t enjoy the dead last start and should be suited by the slow again. Will go close.
Ignore last run from One Last Dance and can run well again here.
Royal Bender has some huge form lines coming into this and a 3W 1 P from 5 on slow. Will be hard to win coming from so far back but will go close.
Confidence 70%
African Pulse was the one horse we were very keen on here but he was scratched. We probably didn’t go as deep into this race as we wanted as we really rate Broken who was well suited here. Broken is the big run to take out of this race but also Unaminously was strong also as Umageton. Royal Bender and Atomic Force were both disappointing.
Moonee Valley Race 7
This distance and the weights suggest Tanby and Moyenne Corniche are both out of this race.
Shewan is a very adaptable horse. Runs well on any distance and surface but will have to come from 1 win from 1 on heavy and 1 win 1 place on slow. Could run very well.
Phila is a horse we were happy to lay last start but certainly not this start. Streets Away has gone on to win again. We don’t think he will handle the ground but we couldn’t lay the thing. Is well weighted here.
Excluded has some nice form behind Parthian recently and has a 4 win 1 place from 8 at distance. Ran well last start and should run well again.
Valedictorian ran well firs tup and is down 4.5kg from that run. Likes the track, surface and distance. Will run well.
Ignore last start for Guru Bob were slowly away and finished very strongly. Comes into this with the same weight but hopefully jumps better and head forward. Suited by distance, course and everything..
Finally, Sassy Bay comes into this race strongly also. Won last start at Distance and Course and Track condition but this is a step up and is up 1kg.
Confidence 80%
As expected Phila didn’t win this one. We didn’t want to be against it but couldn’t back it for sure. As explained in the best value bet area, Guru Bob was unlucky and should have placed. Was a solid run. Shewan didn’t produce as much as expected. Excluded was the quality run and deserved the win. Tanby put in a nice run for 4th and on a longer run will be one to beat.
Moonee Valley Race 8
Morant should run well here after a strong 2nd to African Pulse over the straight and 4th to Golden Archer before that. Is 1 start 1 win on slow but hasn’t ran within 2.3L of winning last five runs. Should still go very close.
Huegill comes back after being gelded but would have to improve head and shoulders to compete here for mine.
Good win last start by Tokugawa but the rail position might make it hard here. Weighted well after that win and chance if they sit a little further forward.
Sea Lord is well weighted off 51.5kg. Should be on around 55-57kg like previous runs in this class. Didn’t have the best last prep but could run strongly.
What to make of Sierra Nevada? Ran very well first up from the front over 1500m and they have dropped it down to a slow over 1200m. Newitt on board, could run a sneaky race.
Livigno ran very well last start and should improve here. Barrier 3 to suit and will go forward which suits. Looks the one to beat.
Finally, Bombalatomba has come back in ok form but keeps finding a few too good.
Confidence 70%
If you read over what we have written up above, our third pick was Sea Lord with no weight on his back. Was a very solid run and Livigno was unlucky not to win that race for a close 2nd. The weights were simply against him. Morant boxed on well but not good enough on weights. Tokugawa put in a very solid run.
Doomben Race 1
Newborn is a horse who has been running amazing races. She is down 5kg from her last up big win and has previous good quality form. Get the feeling she will beat home the favourite who is a very good thing in Liesele.
Confidence 70%
Liesele was far too good here.
Doomben Race 3
Equissential has some good form lines behind CrossCannons who won for us two Saturdays back at big odds returning here. Equissential is down 3kg from last run in equal class while the horse that beat it in From London is up 1.5kg. Expect Equissential to like the extra 200m and to sit a little closer to the action this run. Will go very close. Cyclone Al is also a big chance here. Has the quality.
Confidence 70%
Doomben Race 4
Granzella is a very good thing in this race. Down in class and down 1kg after claim. Won 2 of last three over this distance with only loss last start in harder class to a horse that would run a $1.70 favourite in this race. Simply just wins this.
Confidence 85%
Too much work early was gone with 300m to go.
Doomben Race 5
Doubtfilly ran a solid race behind Pierro last start and comes into this race well handicapped off 57kg. Way too good for all of these.
Confidence 85%
Quality horse and a quality run but found a super first-starter who ran a massive race. Price was right.
Doomben Race 6
D’Jet has been super impressive the last two runs and should continue that on here. If Too Many Reds runs very well in earlier races, saver bet on Jungle Heat.
Confidence 70%
Too much work and could’t find enough.
Morphetville Race 1
Streaky Fella is a very off and on horse. He keeps running on strongly but has produced two fairly average runs recently. Expect he can turn it around here.
Confidence 65%
Big run and big win.
Morphetville Race 3
This is a very strong race but there is one stand out. Beldara and Lilgiggleo are both quality horses but the stand out is Weekend Special. Form line is all quality and weighted to win! @Quinny_1 has declared this horse unbeatable!
Confidence 75%
Ran strongly for second but just found one too good.
Morphetville Race 4
A very hard race to rate. Ebony Rock has been putting in strong runs this prep and is looking for a Dead or better track. If he gets it, back him here. Auld Burn is also very interesting here.
Confidence 65%
Morphetville Race 7
Southern Speed was super last start even after a slow start and pulling up lame. Weighted well here as we know and the step up to 1400m suits even better than the 1200m last start. The main threat appears to be Bagman.
Confidence 80%
Very easy win and looked very good doing it.
Warwick Farm Race 1
Julienas was strong first up getting beaten by Als Gold who is in fine form and should improve on that run here up in distance. Suited by the small field and could pinch a lead on the turn. Kelinni is certainly the danger.
Confidence 75%
Julienas didn’t produce as much as expected and Kelinni won easily.
Warwick Farm Race 3
Moment of Change is a great chance returning with no weight on his back. Looks a little short in such a classy field but will be very hard to beat.
Confidence 65%
You had to take a short price on the day but won with ease.
Warwick Farm Race 4
Strawberry Boy back down to a distance he is suited to and a much easier class than last up attempt. Will simply win this!
Confidence 85%
Probably the best value horse of the day. Gai Waterhouse had Strawberry Boy in perfect condition and won very very well.
Warwick Farm Race 7
Nechita is simply stupid odds in this race. $1.95 against proven Group class horses. She did win impressively first up but this is another step up.
The two we want to be on here are Ichihara and Cavalry Rose.
Confidence 55%
Underrated Nechita, very good horse, back next start.
Warwick Farm Race 8
This horse is certainly suited to longer distances but won firs tup last start and can run super over this distance. Aliyana Tilde is huge overs here off 54kg when you consider she is down from 3F-GP1 0.2L behind Streama. Back E/W.
Confidence 60%
Didn’t run as well as expected. Looking for longer.
Please Note:
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