A tough card at Moonee Valley this week with some very low confidence ratings throughout the meeting from us. We are looking to back up from a very poor Saturday which was made a little easier with two from two on Sunday posted up on twitter. This is the time of year where you need to limit your bets at all times. Pick a couple of good things and a nice value bet and go with that. Sit back with a few beers and watch races even with no money on them! As always, we hope our form matches up with yours! Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Race 1 You Think So *Update* Second favourite has been scratched (only threat for us) – suspect will be backed in hard
Next Best
Race 8 Gig
Race 7 Quicksilver Lass
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Moonee Valley Race 1
You Think So: Won very well last start at course and distance and meetings the second favourite who ran 1.3L behind him 1kg worse off today. The one to beat.
*Late Scratching* Yuka Joy: 1kg better off today on You Think So and ran well last start 2nd at valley behind Lucky Angel. Can win as long as Gauci puts on the breaks out front for half the race which he hasn’t the last two rides.
Star Of Jeune: Poor last start and previous run didn’t show enough. Weighted nicely but happy to be against.
Fastizio: Not been close all prep and doesn’t have the ability to win this.
Dance Crew: Won well two back but last start outclassed up in class. Another step up again here. Weighted poorly.
Fetes Alfresco: Not the worst in the race but couldn’t win a 4 horse race last start at Bendigo in lesser company.
East Verses West: Not up to this on form lines this prep.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: 5 unit bet You Think So
Moonee Valley Race 2
Cry In Awe: Won three of last five races with those two loses in much harder company. Will go close today.
Dealer Principal: Down in class today but up in weight. Hasn’t gone close this prep. Has ability but can’t have.
Apres: Ignore last start when injured during race. Down in class again today and has the ability to go close with Bossy on board from barrier 3.
Beer Garden: First two starts this prep been very average. Needs to find lengths.
Mr Consolidator: Beat Yuka Joy two back which majority of the winners in this race have form around. Failed all other starts this prep. Hard to judge.
Now And Zen: Last two runs has sat out the front, controlled the race and just ran away from lesser class horses. Step up in class but down to 53.5kg gives a chance. Suspect the quality horses will still have too much for him.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: A few chances in this race means you need to get a value price to back Cry In Awe. Anything over $4.20 looks to be good here.
Moonee Valley Race 3
Alice’s Virtue: Decent return last start in country grade when 2nd. Has the ability but needs to improve again.
Lindana: Came close last start on heavy but didn’t show much else. 4 months off, could have trained on more but at 5 doesn’t look to have much upside from that time off.
Never Pegasus: Big run late first up 2nd in a slowly run race and then a little disappointing second up. Has the ability but barrier 9 a little issue. Expecting to push forward again today.
Primaluna: Poor first up and can’t have on previous form lines.
Rainbow Dane: Showed a lot of ability last prep. Comes back today after nearly a year off. Barrier 1 will suit going forward. Hard to beat.
Rich Mahogany: Much better last start than previous two performances on a slowly run 1300m. Not sure can win today.
Rough Or Smooth: First starter out of a very average family. Claiming 3 is only positive.
Aroha Cat: Only guide is good 2L win at Cranbourne Trial out of Moody yard with Nolen on. Can go well today.
Cyclone Jess: Ran well last start but couldn’t hold out in a very slow time. Suspect outclassed on times.
Extreme Impact: 2nd to Subiaso and Zerosixhundred is decent form coming into this race. Ignore last start.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Head to the bar and have a few.
Moonee Valley Race 4
Chasing Drama: Weighted ok today but on times is up against it.
Danarule: Was average at best first up, but could improve. Needs to find a few lengths.
Light Dreamer: On recent form not good enough.
Mr Unique: Decent run two back off a slowish time. Has ability but needs to find more.
Padrao: Looks to be wanting further.
True Brave: Decent runs all three runs this prep. May appreciate the extra distance, but barrier 13 an issue.
Emergency Ward: Very good run two back. From barrier 3 as long as jumps well today will be hard to beat. Down 3kg after claim today, very big chance.
Gingerboy: Strong runs all three this prep and will win soon. Step up in class today but has a chance.
Shoalhaven: Weighted nicely and will sit close enough to have a chance today.
Mucho Caliente: Ran second all three runs this prep. Weighted to win today off 53.5kg but needs to find a little more than last few starts.
Oakford Lass: Good runs last two starts but has to find more.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: You would need to give me big odds to have a bet in this race. No idea yet on prices, but I would need over $7.50 to even consider Emergency Ward.
Moonee Valley Race 5
Magnus Reign: Won well first two races this prep but up against the class last start and again today off a stupid weight.
Hard Romp: Ran quite well last start 3rd to Isabella Snowflake. Was really well backed late. Has the ability to win today.
Zerosixhundred: Good win two back at Mornington but was found out last start. Needs to find more today.
Dash About: Good second up win and from barrier two and will go well today.
Righteous Ruler: Much harder race today than first up prep maiden win. Needs to have improved big time with spell.
Tabasco Force: Good run first up at Mornington and ran well second up to win in a much lesser class. Has ability and will run well but needs to find more again.
Suave Hero: Weighted to win today if has any ability.
The Empress: Kav horse who ran start to finish a very very slow time and win at Geelong first prep. Needs to have trained on big time today.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Not super happy with this race. Hard Romp should be hard to beat, but I would need around $3 to back today.
Quaddie leg one: 2, 3
Moonee Valley Race 6
Beacons: From a Group 3 back down to a R-68. Seems a bit of a step back. Won last start at Class and Distance and will be heading forward again today. Down 0.5kg from that run. Has ability.
Zuma Roc: Ignore last start in much harder class and look to previous few runs. Has the ability to win but big question over distance.
Coghills Creek: Been poor this prep. Can’t have.
Massoni: Been too poor to consider this prep.
Our Inheritance: Hasn’t shown enough this prep to suggest can win today. Two back 1.3L second in 4 horse race backs up the not going well enough.
Savitar: Good first up win at Bendigo. Down 2kg after claim but up in class. Will be coming hard from the back and needs a lot of luck going wide. May simply have to do too much but if can get a run, has a big chance.
Scene of the Crime: Not good enough last two preps and three back form lines haven’t held up. Up against it.
Vizhaka: Looks to have trained on very well coming back with a win at Cranbourne and then backing it up at Bendigo in good time. Barrier 3 suits. Can go close.
Anlon: Never won at distance and hasn’t shown enough this prep to suggest can win today.
Artie Royale: Weighted well enough to win today but has to find a few more lengths.
Railblazer: Strong run last start but this is even a little harder. Has ability.
To Be Honest: Good win last start from the back in lesser company. Weighted ok today but looks up against it. Could shock.
Where’s The Bar: Not good enough.
Cleaver: Not good enough to win.
Kinesthetic: Has ability but not for this race.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: No ‘on top’ selection here. Giving both selections an equal chance. Very hard race with many chances. Happy to go a small 1 unit bet on Savitar and Beacons.
Quaddie leg two: 1, 2, 6, 8
Moonee Valley Race 7
Champagne Love: Never won first up but does run well at the track and also distance (doesn’t win often).
Ferocious One: Much harder class race than what she won in this prep.
Flash Back: Good run two back at Cranbourne but disappointed last start. Could run well.
Quicksilver Lass: Good run two back behind Sumakaray who won by 6L on Sunday. Last start won a good race really well. Big chance today.
Belaruski: Form lines are strong. Good chance today.
High Class Lady: Weighted well today after claim. Will need luck coming from the back.
Hot Pies: Good win two back at sale. Last start found one too good. Has the ability and will be speedmapping perfectly off 56kg.
Minou: Hasn’t shown enough to suggest can win.
Music Shop: Not good enough this prep off last few runs.
First Print: Has a good chance with 3kg claim today. Needs to have trained on.
Valrouz: Big first up win in maiden class from the start. This is a much harder race but could run well.
Diamond Lady: Been average at best this prep.
Fits and Starts: Up in class today. Been off a long time but doesn’t look to have the ability for this.
Jiggle It: Very strong win last start. Not sure can repeat today.
Deeming: Outclassed at this prep.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Very keen on Quicksilver Lass on form lines. 4 units Quicksilver Lass.
Quaddie leg three: 5, 6, 7, 8, 12
Moonee Valley Race 8
Robbo’s Tee Tee: Has won first up before and won 2 from 3 in this class. Been off for a few months. Weight looks a little harsh but does have the ability. Barrier 10 a slight issue.
Signor Socks: Didn’t look very good at all first up. Needs to improve today. Happy to be against.
Intreeg: Happy to be against on previous run.
Mossadina: Ran ‘ok’ first up but this is a step up again. Will find this hard.
StratumSphere: A horse with some ability. Ran on well last start but needs to improve again today. Barrier 12 a big issue.
Aerolink: Seems to be getting too old.. but did win at distance and class first up last start.
Al Jandar: Doesn’t look up to this.
It Is Written: Strong win first up in an easier race. Has the ability.
Sophistication: Poor first up form and didn’t show anything last prep.
Diamond Diggler: Been off a long time. Showed a lot of ability first prep. Can win.
Gig: Quality horse who ran 0.5L second to Platelet last prep. Platelet would win this race by 3L. Previous run as good also. Go close.
Rockshaft: Been poor the last five runs but wasn’t super bad last start. Find this hard still.
Most Husbands: If trained on will run well.
You Tell Me: Decent form lines from last prep including 0.1L second to Classy Chloe. Has some ability.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Gig to win for 4 units.
Quaddie leg four: 5, 8, 11, 12, 16
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