Welcome to The Profits Warrnambool form. We will be starting from race 5 today with maidens and poor rating races to start the day that are worth avoiding. There looks to be a few crackers today and we hope to find a few winners. As always, I hope our form matches up with yours. Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Warrnambool Race 6 Reddamour
Next Best
Warrnambool Race 5 Xaar Best
Best Value
Warrnambool Race 7 Le Remas
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Warrnambool Race 5
Brungle Cry: Went around a very short priced favourite last start giving up weight and got beaten. All things considered, did jump well, but did also lose a plate. Big chance again today.
Yamanaura: Meets Gotta Take Care 2kg worse off today compared to 2.3L loss making it very hard today.
Zaman: Decent form from last start but has to reverse a 8L loss to Brungle Cry. May be too classy the fields today.
Beer Garden: Huge victory last start and the 2nd to Xaar Best wasn’t bad the run before that. Could be the surprise packet of the race and be very hard to beat.
Jungle Fighter: Two good wins and hten last start found one too good. Looks to be in it at the weights but others look better.
Xaar Best: Big win last start at Sandown and is weighted well again today. Does give up 2.5kg today to Brungle Cry but if she improves onwards from last start, is a very solid chance.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Xaar Best can improve from last start
Warrnambool Race 6
Digitalism: Very short favourite last start and delivered. Down in class today off 60kg first up today. Has won firs tup and at distance. Would prefer over 1600+ but is every chance today.
Fourdays of Mylife: Last start win was very sound and off 57.5kg after claim could go close today.
Churchill Express: Very big run last start at Sandown. Rates very well today.
Reddamour: Out of same race at Churchill Express. Very good form and big chance.
Stars in the Sky: Hasn’t shown enough this prep.
Shambles Street: Not too bad first up but can’t see the progression.
Textiles: Needs to show a lot more today.
Ephemera: Has big ability but not shown anywhere near enough last two starts.
Topkapi: Maiden winner in slow time.
Mitford Sister: Maiden winner.
Rococco: Boss taken the ride. Good enough last start but must show a lot more.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie leg one: 1, 2, 3, 4
Strategy: Reddamour and Churchill Express look to be the two to beat here and am happy to back both for a result.
Warrnambool Race 7
Second Effort: Poor first runs this prep. Hard to see the win here off the weights but if a mass of rain comes from nowhere, don’t dismiss.
Wealth Princess: 2 wins 2 places first up and goes well here. Hasn’t raced in close to a year which is a fair issue but has the ability to win.
Zamorar: Went back first up this prep and was average at best. Must improve lengths upon lengths today.
Glaneuse: Hard to see the progression on first up run. Looking for further.
Tokugawa: Big runs last prep and has solid first up form. Weighted well today and should get a strong enough run.
Red Colossus: Couldn’t win in lesser class first up so hard to see the win today.
Gybe: Been nominated like 10 times this prep. Something obviously wrong with the horse to keep picking and choosing. This doesn’t look the race.
Wild Mia: First up runner for Corstens. Bought from the US where last prep placed in GP2 type races over 1600 and 1800m. Looks to be a solid form but has never won at distance.
Constant Force: Almost got a win here last prep at 1400m. Goes ok first up and goes well at the distance. This may be harder than he is used to.
That’s The One: Huge form lines considering how well General Truce has progressed and Decircles who finished behind them won last week also. Weighted to win.
Another Prelate: In our black book. Should have won a few more races last prep. Major issue is distance. Has never won at this distance.
King Cotton: Very hard horse to rate today. You have to ignore last start at the Valley and look to two back when beat Vatican who won after that. If the rail is going very well today, has a big chance.
Le Remas: Very progressive horse who needs to be ridden forward and from barrier 2, has the chance today. Weighted to win and has won 2 from 4 first up. 2.5L behind All Too Hard off 59kg last prep. Big chance.
Population: Weighted well enough today but needs a fair bit of luck and is probably not going well enough.
Agrippa: Didn’t show a lot last start but if ridden further forward today has his chances.
Dayita: A horse that has always been rated overly high. Looking for further.
Dash for Viz: Very strong form lines around Brit General and others last prep. Should run very well.
Sophrosyne: Not good enough for this.
Balzeus: Not good enough on last start form.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie leg two: 2, 5, 10, 12, 13, 17
Strategy: Love the price here for Le Remas while That’s The One is the horse to beat and should go very close.
Warrnambool Race 8
Yokozuna: Weighted poorly today when you consider last two runs.. but does like this track and distance.
Zachary Quack: Ran well enough first up but doesn’t have best 2nd up record and off 51kg will find it hard.
Melete: Always runs well at this track. Good win last start but may need to find more here.
El Divine: Hard to back off last two runs but may be better suited here today.
Five O’Clock: If shows run of three back can win today but needs to turn around form.
Road To Summer: Very bold run last start and weighted well enough again today back down in distance.
Songspur: Speed maps well but needs to improve today.
Tinkler’s Lane: Needs further.
Mango Mojito: Hard to see progression on last two runs at weight.
Confidence: 0%
Quaddie leg three: 4, 5, 7, 8
Strategy: The horse we liked here was a late scratching.Nothing else sticks out. Quaddie numbers a guide.
Warrnambool Race 9
Itsmycall: Something wrong last two starts of last prep it seems if you compare to win over Classic Elle in a 12 horse field. Big chance if at best. Seems to be a horse that is hard to get on it’s day.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie leg four: 10
Strategy: Only liked three horses here last night. Two scratched so Itsmycall who was 2nd top rated is the pick.
Please Note:
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