Welcome to The Profits form guide for Day 3 of the Warrnambool Carnival on 1 May 2014. Yesterday was a very tough day all around it seemed highlighted with the brilliant win for Gotta Take Care. The track started playing heavily to those out the front but to my eyes the run of the day was Blackie who was huge from the back almost getting the job done. He looks like one to follow going forward. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Warrnambool Race 6 Palmero
Impressed with a big victory early in the carnival and it’s hard to jump off him today. I will be taking a saver on Lord of the Song who looks the only real threat to me, but I am still very keen and believe Palmero wins this by lengths.
Next Best
Warrnambool Race 7 Ticket to Toorak
Ticket to Toorak has shown enough to be winning this class of race today. Continues to progress well and on first prep form on Heavy should be no issue on the ground today. Looks over the odds and a good horse to bet 2 units to place 1 unit to win.
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
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I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Warrnambool Race 1
A tough way to open the day. We know Republic Lad will handle the ground on his run two days ago and he has to be respected… he ran well.
The majority of these will handle the ground.
Monkey Briscoe has shown enough for me to consider him a big chance today. His last win was in Open class over in NZ, but last prep ran well enough on Heavy over the hurdles including a 2nd to Maythehorsebemagic who would be winning this. He showed enough 3rd to No Song No Supper on Heavy over 2350 on flat and should improve on here.
Take Out and Scotland The Brave both come through a race at Oakbank. Neither exactly like the heavy on form. Take Out is poorly weighted against Scotland today as well.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Monkey Briscoe to win.
Warrnambool Race 2
Might as well call this a Maiden almost not a 2YO race. So many first time runners with no form to go off. Those with form, it’s hard to rank it all up into this race today.
I thought Charge Your Glass trialed quite well, but will I be parting with my own money on the horse? No sir!
Confidence 55%
Strategy: Better races to bet in today.
Warrnambool Race 3
This looks a tough race to rate the runners here today. R-64 race. I reckon Miller Street could beat all but 2 of these homes off his run last weekend.
About The Journey sticks out off his last start run at Sale. Should have probably got the win. Should handle the Heavy no dramas today. Northern Journey was also impressive enough last start at Sale on a Heavy track… and has only ever gone close on heavy.
West of Jordan showed to be handy on Heavy but that was in a maiden. Finley Harper showed nothing last start but on previous prep would go well here. Rapidus in much easier company won on heavy then next start failed on heavy. Isaiah won a maiden well on heavy but that was a maiden.
Comments: Tough race to play and i’m sitting this out, but will give a not very confident tip.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Small bet on About The Journey to win.
Warrnambool Race 4
Have this one down to four key chances.
Montoya Heights loves it wet. Three back run ran 3.8L 1st at Mornington on a Heavy track in a much easier race. First up this prep beat home a few average runners over 1200m on slow and will appreciate the wet track and further distance today.
Pteryon ran a nice 1.5L 6th to Montoya last start. Previous to that won at Randwick in 2011. Has the improvement if fit enough.
Kiora is the one I find hard to place. First two runs this prep were very average… but last prep had a very big heavy win at course and distance.
Comments: Best E/W of the day scratched from this race. No real confidence in the race anymore
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Montoya Heights to win
Warrnambool Race 5
Several resumers today makes this race very tough to judge.
I went over this race twice and I actually couldn’t give you any form here.
I can’t even give you a pick.
Warrnambool Race 6
No point beating around the bush on this one. I have this race down to two key chances.
Palmero was impressive two days back over 3450m. He won very well but this today is an extra 2000m and you have to wonder how much the run would have taken out of him with little to no break.
Lord of the Song is the main threat for mine. He is wanting this distance and removed last start at Oakbank that he is a true jumping stayer with an impressive 22L win on dead.
Both these horses handle the heavy and both will run very well.
Comments: I can’t look past Palmero on last start.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Palmero to win. Saver Lord Of The Song.
Warrnambool Race 7
Grand Emperor: Ran home well enough last start at Sandown in what was a classier race than the rating made it out to me. Seemed to handle the slow track but is still a big questionmark on Heavy. At the weights, does have to improve.
Sophrosyne: Never won first up or at distance in the past.. seems to want slightly further…. not won since 2011! Goes well on heavy though.
Run Diego: Very poor first up in a slightly harder race than this. Up 2.5kg today and back to a heavy track which he is best seen on. His last run on heavy was a good 2nd at Mornington off 51.5kg in a much easier race. Last win was on Heavy in similar grade over 1000m. If produces his best 2nd up, can run well.
Zakynthos Imprintz: Seemed to be going well three preps back and then last four preps has shown really nothing at all. Has 2 wins on heavy so should handle that today, but first up run was average at best.
JohnnyDrama: Poor run last start in easier grade than this but previous run was ok. 3 wins on heavy including last win at similar distance.
Ticket to Toorak: Progressed through the grades last prep but then finished off only averagely – think you just ignore that run and rate on the previous runs. Only run on slow was a win as well in his maiden over two very strong runners in Iconic and Washington Square.
Clinton Affair: Promised to be something good but has never really gone on with it and delivered. Had breathing issues first up which is a worry just 10 days ago… last prep run on slow was a good 3rd.
Stratumsphere: 3L slow three runs back behind Ticket to Toorak and lost by 3 lengths… after a close 2nd to Beauty Cash at MV… two back was 1.3L 2nd to beach Front at MV and then last start 1.5L to Peninsula Dane. Continues to find a few too good it seems… but has won on heavy before and has the right form lines for a race this weak.
Millie’s Mann: Will be going forward. Form from last prep not exactly the best for this distance. Likes it wet.
Comments: Ticket to Toorak has the potential to win this and looks to have no trouble with the ground today.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Ticket to Toorak E/W
Warrnambool Race 8
Banca Mo: I thought he was a little disappointing at Caulfield last start. Yes, he did run it a little hard it probably did feel, but he fell out it very quickly. His last win was at course and distance last year on a slow track, but since then hasn’t exactly blown us away. I have a feeling he has gone a little backwards since but can’t count him out of this. Much harder race this year.
Shoreham: Has improved each run this prep. Ran home nicely even though was out of it at the end last start. Rate off best run 5th up last prep and should run well.
Akzar: Barrier, jockey and ground today are the only factors that work against him today. If he handles the ground, gets a nice position in run and gets the right ride, he should be winning this. Big concern he may be too far back based on how the track played yesterday.
Moudre: Last start run was better thsn first up. Goes well enough on heavy placing 3 from 4. Didn’t run home as well as Akzar that is for sure last start, but can run well.
Mourinho: Missed start and was out of it last start from there. Three back at Bendigo ran very well in similar grade race on slow. Distance no issue IMO.
Hvasstan: What do we make of Hvasstan. Got shuffled back last start and finished off just ok. Weighted much better today as well. Only issue will be ground.
Gottino: Handles the wet ok. Most importantly ran very well in the Mornington Cup coming hard late to run 0.8L 5th. Weighted very well today as well. Blowout chance at odds.
Bel Thor: Showed nothing last start and no idea why. He ran very well three back behind Fat Al at Bendigo. Is this his best distance?
Fieldmaster: Very good on the Heavy but better over the hurdles. Not in this class today for mine.
Vatuvei: Likes it wet.. but not been the same horse since 2012.
Shiny Buttons: hard to ignore last start when ran a very good 4.5L 1st… but didn’t beat much that day. Must improve significantly for this.
Westsouthwest: Loves it wet… but I have doubts over how good he is over this distance on flat. Should be jumping not running.
Haylaman: Very poorly weighted today agianst Gottino and also no wet track form to really measure up apart from the 3rd on this track on slow. Not for me.
Picture Editor: Hard to see this guy measuring up in this class today.. but I guess his 0.8L 3rd to Gotta Take Care does count ok. Goes well on wet.
Magnapal: Never run on heavy but won 2 from 3 on slow. Not sure measures up to this class.
St Jean: He will handle the ground based on breeding. The further the better it seems and from barrier 2 will get a nice position in running with a nice weight. Most importantly, new jockey on.
Caroun: Hard to suggest he can place here.
Luckzat: Can’t see her going close at all.
Comments: Banca Mo, Shoreham, Akzar, Mourinho, Gottino, Bel Thor, Shiny Buttons and St Jean on form look the only main chances to work around. I’m happy to take Shiny buttons on at the price… he hasn’t measured up to this class in the past. Bel Thor has been disappointing since the Easter Egg Run and not so sure this distance will suit today. Mourinho has a few things against him today including the distance but should run well. Shoreham should continue to progress this prep but I suspect he finds a few too good today. So I really have this down to three. St Jean could be anything.. at the price, I probably do have to take him on though. This leaves us with two, both from very average barriers. Gottino has continued to impress me this prep… he finally gets a wet track and based on previous form, I believe he will find his best on this surface. He goes well at the distance and is weighted to win if gets the right run. Akzar is the other one. He may be a victim of circumstance today if he gets too far back, but the price is right.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Akzar to win. Gottino on the E/W.
Warrnambool Race 9
Not liking many in this race… but King of Dudes in a horse who is bred to apprectiate the heavy track. His wins on Slow have been classy and 1700m should be fine on a heavy track. Rates tow in and looks a great E/W chance.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: King of Dudes E/W
Warrnambool Race 10
There are some fairly average horses, average horses on heavy tracks and average horses at this distance in the race which limits the winners.
Feeling Invincible always goes well at this track and distance. Loves it wet as well based on previous form. Go well today.
Orientaped hasn’t been seen since October. He has never won first up but off 53kg today drops back in grade i’d suggest. Issue is his not the best at this distance but goes well on wet.
Forty Thirty can’t be ignored today. Fair to say he showed nothing last start and even last prep he didn’t produce much, but based on the previous prep, he loves a very very low weight and his last start win by 4.5L at Caulfield in Open Class on a slow track. 50.5kg today. Blow out chance.
LuckyI’mBareFoot didn’t show a lot last start. Won 5 from 14 on heavy and last win was at this distance on a Heavy track in much lesser company. Goes well at this track.
Upbeat: Just ignore first up run, was not his distance and still ran ok. Has won on Heavy in the past and runs very well at this course and distance. Does need to improve to win.
Comments: I keep coming back to Feeling Invincible here on form. I know the horse will both handle the track and will be in positive position close to the speed where I believe you want to be today again.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Feeling Invincible medium sized bet
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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