Welcome to The Profits form guide for Flemington on Victoria Derby Day 1 November 2014. The Wednesday fill-up on Order of the Sun didn’t go to plan with the ride provided, but we move on after a strong result Cox Plate day thanks to MoonOverManhattan getting up at juicy odds, especially if you got on the $9s being offered when tweeted out early in the day. We are provided a very tough Derby Day card and we will need a bit of luck to go our way to get out ahead.. a lot of luck would get us a huge result. There is a heep of value on offer and as long as we nap one of them, it should be a good day. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Melbourne Best Bet
Flemington Race 7 Hampton Court
Derby favourite and clear top pick for us. Rates a good few lengths ahead of the rest of runners in this race apart from Moonovermanhattan who we will also be having a small go on at least to saver here. If runs to peak or even improves today, will be winning by lengths, not just a head. Big price being bet considering form lines and still value.
Melbourne Best Value
Flemington Race 3 Pornichet
French runner who hasn’t been seen since running in the Belmont Derby (ran 2nd last) 18 lengths behind Adelaide. Previous too that ran 3rd the 2000 Guineas over 1600m at Longchamp so you have to respect the class of this runner.. that was a race worth 850k! Probably appreciate a bit of sting out so dead track ideal if it occurs. With form around Karakontie and other multiple group winners. Karakontie ran 0.1L 2nd to Ectot who started $7 in the Arc this year as an example I can’t understand the price being bet. Huge overs in this class. Taking E/W.
Melbourne Best Place Bet
Flemington Race 9 Adamantium
This bet comes with a bit of caution. If there is a Dead 4 track we are betting half our normal stake (we are wanting a good track). If it is worse than Dead 4 we won’t be betting (dead 5 or slow etc no bet). Adamantium is absolutely flying. Weighted so well here and improves lengths down the straight. Will set an insane tempo out front and be very hard to get past. $8 being bet at one bookie and is huge overs on our ratings.
Melbourne Next Best Place Bet
Flemington Race 4 Eloping
One of the hardest races on the day, yet we can’t believe the price being bet on Eloping in this race. $26 to win is way overs, but we are most keen on the $6 being offered up for the place. This is a horse who ran 2L off the Manikato first and second placed horses just two runs back. Since then has improved ratings wise and won very easy from out the front in both those races. Can run the times Rich Enuff will be setting out the front and will be there at the finish when it counts.
Flemington EARLY Quaddie (Races 2-5)
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 9, 10
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 8
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 5, 8, 15
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 5, 9, 11
Flemington MAIN Quaddie (Races 6-9)
Quaddie Leg One: 1: 2, 3, 6, 9, 12, 13, 15
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 11, 13
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 4, 7, 11, 14
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 4, 5, 6, 10
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Promotions
Sportsbet
Place a Win bet on any of the first four races on Derby Day at Flemington and if your horse runs 2nd or 3rd, money back ($100 maximum in each race – first bet only)
Luxbet
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2. Win 50% more on the Victoria Derby than best price from Sportbet’s Top Tote Plus, Tom Waterhouse’s Tom’s Div or Sportingbet’s Best Tote Plus ($100 maximum stake)
BetEasy
Run 2nd in any Group 1 tomorrow and your win bet will be refunded as a $50 Free Bet.
Ladbrokes
Best Tote or SP +20% on the Mackinnon Stakes (max bet $50)
Flemington Race 3 Cash Refund if your bet loses (max bet $20)
Betfair- Power Picks
#1 Money back for 2nd or 3rd in the Group One of your choice ($50 max bet)
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or
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Sportingbet
Run 2nd or 3rd in Race 1 or 2 at Flemington, money back as Bonus Bet (Max bet $50)
Centrebet
Run 2nd to favourite in any Group 1 at Flemington, money back (Max $100) as a bonus bet
Racing
Flemington Race 1
Our Vespa: Checked out of it last start in the Guineas prelude so we aren’t exactly sure what he would have done. Up to 1600m is a big question mark for mine. Raced over 1200m and shown best over that… good horse but is he best ruined to this distance? Barrier helps.
Stratum Star: Lucky winner last start at Caulfield.. Manhattan Avenue should have won if got a run. Still, good horse who continues to win. Hard to ignore.
Wandjina: Ran 3.5L 10th in the Cox Plate last start. 3rd in Guineas that was high rating. Expect him to push forward again in this from an outside barrier but won’t be a break-neck tempo obviously. Have to respect the class.
Careless: Had every chance last two runs but just not good enough. Up in distance should help here but just not this class IMO.
Manhattan Avenue: Very unlucky last start. Step up in distance will suit and barrier 5 is perfect. Have to respect his last start run and the sprint home.
Burning Passion: Didn’t have the best run first up in the Blue Sapphire but still ran well enough. Can’t exactly count the horse out here.
Kermadec: Maiden winner two back and just beaten last start by Muscovado. Form lines are strong enough if improves to run a good race today.
Kapset: Beaten last two starts but improved last start when lead all the way and just taken down late. Back to Flemington doubt he leads but may settle at the front due to barrier.
Ronn’s Moss: Never a chance from position in running last start but didn’t have the sectionals to win this today for mine. Barrier okay.
Stitch Me Up: Couldn’t win BM-64 class two back then 10L 2nd last last start. Hard to see.
Hi World: Maiden winner last start. High Chap so looking for further. Did run okay in 2YO class last prep at course down the straight. Wouldn’t fully discount.
Mihany: Will be pushing out front again. Last start mucus excuse. Two back wasn’t good enough to stay on but still ran within 3L of Moonovermanhattan and Almalad.
Justaway: Showed nothing last two starts but rated on three back run have to respect. Hard horse to judge.
Tahni Dancer: Don’t ignore this girl. Good run in the Guineas and then last start just beaten by Lumosty who had the better run. Clearly beat the rest. That was a Group 2! Down to 53kg here. Rates well off the 1.5L 2nd to Eloping three back.
Azkadellia: Too far back last start at Caulfield and paid the price. Good run home. 53kg today is a massive chance but how far back will she be today?
Comments: Wandjina rated well enough to get a run in a Cox Plate yet Azkadellia is a $3 chance compared to $11 and only 2kg difference? I can’t have that. I’d rather play the three value runners for a similar price.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Equal stakes on Wandjina, Manhattan Avenue and Tahni Dancer.
Flemington Race 2
Fontein Ruby: Just continues to win! Won here two runs back from start to finish and did the same last start in the Caulfield Classic at Caulfield. Barrier makes it a bit harder today but will have every chance and is 2 from 2 at this track in the past. Doesn’t HAVE to lead.
Veuvelicious: Not the same horse this prep it seems. 3L and 8L off them last two runs and just not good enough on recent form.
Abduction: Been very well backed today. Just snuck home two back over 1400m and then last start was unlucky not to win. This is a MUCH harder race though and horse hasn’t been over this distance in the past. Will be a long way back also but barrier helps the issue. Looks unders to me.
Golconda: 3 runs this prep and not gone closer than 4L. Not good enough.
Muscovado: Well beaten by Abduction two back and then fought on well to win last start. This is a big step up in class again though. Not for me.
Candelara: Form around Muscovado and Abduction but couldn’t beat either of them both runs. Appreciate the distance but best shown on wetter.
Lady Macan: Didn’t stay the 2000m last start. Hard to have even after the run two back.
Savage Coup: Slow win at Sale two back in maiden and then nothing last start up in this grade. Not suited.
Fenway: Maiden only winner two back at Bendigo. Ran well enough actually last start behind Bondeiger when held up and unlucky. Have to respect high chap up in distance again.
Yesterjoy: Was a fair spec for this runner last start at Geelong but went back to last and race was over from there. Better than that and probably rate on two back run which was solid enough win in maiden company?
Hipster Girl: Had her chance the last few runs but just not good enough. Didn’t seem to stay the trip last start.
Thunder Lady: Couldn’t win maidens up in Sydney.. so can’t see this.
Via Cavour: Up in distance here today but couldn’t win maidens over 1400m and it’s hard to see this progression.
Comments: I come back to two key horses here in Fontein Ruby and Fenway. I’m not sure I can trust the ground to play well enough for Fontein Ruby to win this all the way and the outside barrier is the concern. Fenway will have every chance as long as Oliver gets the horse out.
Confidence 70%
Early Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 9, 10
Strategy: Fenway E/W.
Flemington Race 3
Smokin’ Joey: 5L off both runs this prep but has the ability. Top weight and can’t ignore.
Alma’s Fury: Wide with no cover yet finished strongly. Amicius type run who then won guineas the next start. Only run at Flemington didn’t place in past. Can’t ignore the run.
Generalife: Can’t dismiss the last start run. Simply too far back on a course that favoured those mid to front of field. Out the back again today but Flemington gives you every chance.
Hucklebuck: Sure, his a good horse but didn’t win last prep. First up easy kill over in Adelaide and didn’t beat much. Well unders in this.
Limes: Had no answer for them first up. Very very poor run. Same occurred last start. I can’t see it.
Mecir: Showed nothing first up. Have to respect the class of this runner and rate on last prep. Include in early quaddie thats for sure.
Pornichet: French runner who hasn’t been seen since running in the Belmont Derby (ran 2nd last) 18 lengths behind Adelaide. Previous too that ran 3rd the 2000 Guineas over 1600m at Longchamp so you have to respect the class of this runner.. that was a race worth 850k! Probably appreciate a bit of sting out so dead track ideal if it occurs. I can’t understand the price being bet. Huge overs in this class.
Velrosso: Doesn’t win out of turn. Has a very good 2nd up record and last win was at this distance in a 328k race at the Gold Coast. Ran home from last off a fast tempo to get the win on a Good surface. Put in the fastest 600 to 400m split last start, 400 to 200m split was good also and wasn’t ridden out the last 200m yet produced enough there also. Have to respect.
Turquoise King: Found out in harder company the last two starts. Worked home well enough sitting off the leader but not good enough at Caulfield. Up in class here as well, gets found out for mine again.
Woodbine: Very strong win two back at Rosehill. Last start went forward and tactics ruined him but still ran very well in a Group 1. Won’t be pushing that far forward today and from barrier 6 should position midfield and have every chance.
Taddei Tondo: Up in class again today. Just missed at the line to Hosting last start at Caufield. Form lines are solid enough and last run at track was decent enough. Have to respect from barrier.
Spy Decoder: Good win last start in MUCH easier than this. Two previous runs around 3.5-4L off Hooked who has turned out to be a very good form reference. On ratings have to suggest this is a step back in class from 2 and 3 back runs and should be close enough at the line.
Comments: I can’t pass up the odds on Pornichet first up in Aus with form around Karakontie and other multiple group winners. Karakontie ran 0.1L 2nd to Ectot who started $7 in the Arc this year as an example (also beat it as a 2YO.. was it’s only loss till the arc). The form lines are just very solid and you have to think the horse is up to this if fit and ready to run.
Confidence 80%
Early Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 8
Strategy: Pornichet E/W
Flemington Race 4
Rich Enuff: Back to his bread and butter of 1200m. Last start at course and distance down the straight ran a 1:08.130… just an amazing time. Not disgraced one bit in the Guineas and he will be pushing all these to the wire again. Will have the stamina and fitness from the training this prep. Big chance. Barrier only issue… is he in the right section of the track?
Brazen Beau: Easy win last start in easier company this this. Pulled up lame in the Danehill down the straight. Has to improve again today to beat the top class but has to be respected. Tough barrier but won’t be blocked for runs at least.
Scissor Kick: Smashed by Shooting to Win last start but did a lot wrong. Back to 1200m today is interesting… not the best in this race for mine but has to be considered a chance. Better over further.
Time For War: Good horse last prep but hasn’t measured up to the top class this prep. Not for mine here.
Rubick: Proved the trial form was legit winning the Schillaci first up for 200 days off. Was the best 2YO clearly last year outside of Earthquake. Back to age races and not treated super today by weights compared to last start. Probably faces harder horses and first go down the straight? I have to take on even at the price.
Ghibellines: Shown nothing either run this prep that could be considered good enough to win this year. Happy to bet around.
Nostradamus: Every chance last start at Randwick but well beaten by Brazen Beau. Not the best of the best.
Kuro: Very smart win last start at Randwick but what did he beat? Time For War isn’t rated close to the best here and he hasn’t beaten anything all prep that is this good. Two back run was a nice time win. Have to respect but barrier will make it a tough task
Delectation: Every chance to win last three runs and at least 2 lengths off them.. Can’t see that changing today either.
Galaxy Pegasus: Good win at Moonee Valley last start but in reality we were lucky to hold on for the win. Not up to this level of class just yet.
Inkling: I thought the run first up was enough to suggest he can improve on today. Could be a sneaky place chance.
Husson Eagle: Had every chance last start at Caulfield but certainly not good enough. Had his chances and doesn’t look close to this form today.
Armada: Wangaratta win and then 5L and 4L defeats in similar class. No thanks.
Earthquake: Superstar. Ran a close 2nd in the Golden Slipper after owning the Blue Diamond. Loves a fast tempo but you have to suggest she didn’t exactly impress last start when off the bit a long way out. Hasn’t come back the Earthquake of the 2YO years. Has to be respected but at the prices, i’m happy to bet around her.
Eloping: The value of the race. First up ran 2.3L 3rd behind Manikato Stakes 1st & 2nd placed Angelic Light and Lankan Rupee off the 50kgs. Dominated Tawteen next start at MV and then a fairly strong 2L victory last start in the Blue Sapphire at Caulfield has prepared her for this run today. The ONLY concern is that 2nd up last prep she didn’t give her best down the straight… but I think she is better over the 1200m than 1000m and the form just stacks up. Huge price.
Bring Me The Maid: Ran well enough in the Guineas but isn’t anywhere near the class to win this today without it being wet. Stay clear!
Comments: I’m happy to take on Kuro and Earthquake here today. I think their form doesn’t stack up well enough in this class. Brazen Beau has to be respected for the class he has shown, but was his last start win good enough to beat all of these from the barrier? I can’t ignore Rubick being a very good horse and the first up run proved that… but down the straight first time from barrier 1, needs to peak 2nd up to go close here. Rich Enuff is the clear top pick here again based on previous runs this prep. He had every right to run outside of the top6 in the guineas, but just keeps kicking on. If asked to outstay this lot, he has the guts to go all the way. Eloping is the value of the race and continues to improve after every run.
Confidence 75%
Early Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 5, 8, 15
Strategy: Rich Enuff to win. E/W betting Eloping (alot more on place than win).
Flemington Race 5
Big Memory: Horrible barrier in the Caulfield Cup which meant they decided to ride him back.. flashed home and final sectional was beaten by Lucia Valentina and Admire Rakti… good sectionals really too wide and let go too late. Will go forward today in a race lacking in pace.. could stack them up and roll them all. Has the ability.
Caravan Rolls On: Lucky winner of the Geelong Cup with a perfect ride. Barrier 1 will see him smothered up on the rail and need luck to get a run. Have to take on at the price.
Lord Van Percy: Mutual Regard had his measure two back over in the UK. First up run was solid from the back but will be wanting a true staying test and may not get the speed required here. Flemington track will suit him.
Shoreham: Very good sectionals late two back at course over 2000m but still didn’t go close. Geelong Cup run was terrible. Can’t have today.
Let’s Make ADeal: Flashed late behind Big Memory last start and has been kept fresh between runs. Have to improve again to beat all these but form looks solid enough. Weighted well.
La Amistad: All runs this prep not been good enough for mine to be winning here. Gone backwards if anything this prep.
Unchain My Heart: Shown nothing last two runs in similar class. Not for me.
Wish Come True: Decent horse but outclassed here on a dry surface. No thanks.
Signoff: Continues to run well without winning. Gone around at $6.50 or less the 5 runs this prep and lost them all. Good 3rd last start behind Contributer and Noble Protector who I would be backing in this race, but last win was in Autumn at $1.20 in a BM-90. Has to find that extra gear today. Barrier helps.
Marksmanship: Ran home well enough but was always getting beaten last start. Not the best track record and never won on good or dead. Best seen on wetter.
Like A Carousel: Looks a huge price today. Was a massive run 3rd in the Geelong Cup and if had the run of Caravan Rolls On, probably wins it. Best seen on Good tracks and loves a long straight to wind up. Much better at weights today also. Big chance.
Thunderbird One: Not on any form this prep.
More Than Sacred: Decent enough run 4th in the Geelong Cup but looked well beaten by the 3 infront. Can’t have turning the tables here.
Comments: Tough race on paper. Happy to stick with Big Memory and Like A Carousel on form.
Confidence 70%
Early Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 5, 9, 11
Strategy: Big Memory to win. Smaller bet Like A Carousel
Flemington Race 6
Happy Trails: Super run in the Cox Plate and could have won with a bit more luck and better start. Best runs have been on good surfaces and wouldn’t like any worse than a Dead 4. Will push for midfield spot from barrier.
Foreteller: Expect to see him staying out the back from the barrier, but i have been shocked in the past also. Very good run in Cox Plate and looked a treat out the back. Goes well at track and will have every chance to win.
Hawkspur: Every chance last start at Caulfield and not good enough. Back to 2000m suits but not the class required this prep IMO.
Moriarty: Did a lot wrong last start at Caulfield but still ran poorly. Much better run at Randwick previously to beat Rising Romance. 1 run 1 placing at track. Respect from barrier.
Brambles: Battled on last start in the Caulfield Cup for a 1L 4th just behind Lucia Valentina and that form held up the previous run also. Up to 59kg in WFA today but certainly respect this guy is flying. Just lacks the killer punch. Needs luck.
Mourinho: Running well but not good enough to win this on last few runs.. has to find a length or two at least.
He’s Your Man: Group 3 and Group 1 last two runs but much harder race again today and up to 59kg in WFA… is he just a handicap horse? Has to be respected.
Farraaj: Very good in training and times and wins in UK were sound. Really needs a dry track to find his best is the key and any rain will ruin it for mine. Respect but play by ear.
Star Rolling: Gone backwards since the win first up. Hard to rate last start in Group 1 class when slowly away and race was run. Prefer others.
Spillway: Was into 4th favourite for Caulfield Cup at one stage! Ran $4 and $2.8 favourites his last two runs and didn’t place in either. Respect first two runs this prep in WFA an dback to it have to suggest can run well if gets luck.
Amralah: Handles all surfaces. First up for Hickmott/Williams yard and this is his distance. Very strong win alst start before flying out over Hillstar in WFA-G3 class has to be respected. Good barrier.
Criterion: A little unlucky last start in the Cox Plate and still finished close to them. Barrier 1 an issue today but expect to push a little further forward today. Will need to get a run at the right time. Respect.
Costume: WFA-G1 win last start in NZ after no form at all. Key was good track? Questionable if gets that and how good she is? Struggle to suggest she measures up.
Rising Romance: Close 2nd in Caulfield Cup. Sting out a positive if occurs. Hard to ignore from placement in running.
Comments: Horrible betting race. Most open race of the day. Almost a field job in the quaddie.
Confidence 50%
Quaddie Leg 1: 2, 3, 6, 9, 12, 13, 15
Strategy: No betting here. Just watch and hope we get the quaddie leg. Hardest leg for sure. Criterion E/W top pick.
Flemington Race 7
Hampton Court: Awkward barrier today for a horse who is most likely going to push forward to sit handy on speed. Last start at Randwick in the G1 beat First Seal and Sweynesse over the 2000m who beat each other up out the front. Won by a handy 2.3L. Sweynesse ran a very good Cox Plate 2000m and this form is hard to ignore. Enjoys a Good surface as well. Hard to beat.
Moonovermanhattan: Very good win at Moonee Valley when able to get the lead and run 3 seconds slower than the Cox Plate was run in. We obviously got the cash off him there and even though the barrier isn’t ideal, he will work over from the barrier and lead them up again i’d say. Likes the track and as long as gets his way out the front, he is a huge chance.
Prentice: WA runner who didn’t measure up last start at MV. Hard to see the progression and rank outsider for a reason.
Firehouse Rock:Hard to ignore him. Won three back at Caulfield in much easier company and was 1.8L off Manhattan Avenue before that. Last start 1L off Fontein Ruby and Crafty at the 2000m and will appreciate the distance. Maps well enough from tricky barrier 10.
Magicool: Horrible spot last start in the Caulfield Classic. Ran ok but never a chance. Two back run and win was very good but this is a step up in class again. Horrible barrier.
Lotion: The other speed in the race, had every chance at Geelong and fell out of it very fast. Two back run was a decent win at Morphetville but didn’t beat much at all. Struggle to suggest he is the best in this.
Nozomi: Held on at Geelong to hold out Preferment. Previous run was a win in a maiden. Likes the distance no doubt about it. Should be pushing forward but will need a bit of luck to get a good spot 1 out. Have to improve again.
Light Up Manhattan: Had every chance in the Caulfield Classic. Got a very good run on the rails and just boxed on.. doesn’t have a turn of foot required. Up in distance can only help and barrier will mean he gets the run required. Include in exotics.
Bondeiger: Boxed on well from the back at MV on a day when being that far back wasn’t suiting.. but Go Indy Go made up enough ground while he was still a bit flat footed. Decent enough run two back at Cauflield but proved that field wasn’t exactly the best going around. Barrier not the best either.
Royal Standing: Ran home well enough from out the front but doesn’t have the required turn of foot. Barrier hurts chances.
Atmosphere: Ran home fairly well last start at Moonee Valley. Two back also ran home well but just beaten. Looks a main threat to the favourite in the race if finds best and Moreira on board helps also. Barrier 4 but will be a little too far back for my liking.
Gouldian: Maiden winner last start and didn’t exactly win it well. Big jump up in distance today and maps very well from barrier, but this is a huge jump in class and i can’t see it.
Preferment: Ran home very well from the back at Geelong but just missed. This is a MUCH harder field than that race. Will be getting a fair back way in the run and needs to improve again to beat the best here. Barrier 6 means slightly further forward which helps.
Cuban Fighter: Will be a long way back in the run here. Classic run and previous runs not good enough for this.
San Padre: Ran well enough first up winning a maiden but then last two runs have been horrible. Just not up to this standard.
The Mighty Jrod: Went close two back at Mornington to win a maiden but just missed. Last start at Geelong was much better in the classic from out the front, but was flattered by the way the race was run I feel. Not for mine here and barrier is horrible.
Verreaux: Too far back in the Geelong Classic but also wasn’t good enough. 16L and 4L defeats last two runs, not ideal and couldn’t win a maiden. No thanks.
Comments: Three key chances in this and they are represented by the odds in Hampton Court. Moonovermanhattan and Preferment.. while you also have to respect Atmosphere. I can’t give much home to the rest of these and they would need LUCK to get their way. Moonovermanhattan will make his own race which is the big key to his chances for me. You know how much I respect this horse and I think he is a massive price. Hampton Court is the horse with all the class and the tricky barrier makes it a little harder.. but the current price is still well overs. Preferment will be a little further back than i’d like to be and has to improve again to measure up.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 11, 13
Strategy: 5 units Hampton Court to win. 2 units Moonovermanhattan to win.
Flemington Race 8
Sweet Idea: Very good record on dry tracks. If the rain comes I don’t want to be anywhere near her in this class of race. Good horse but is she the best in this over 1600m?
Catkins: Tough horse and not a sprinter which she was asked to be last start. Best runs been on rain affected ground and could get that today. Maps very well
Diamond Drille: No turn of foot last start at Caulfield when had the perfect run. Hard to see toughing this out. Needs a few more runs.
May’s Dream: Sectionals hard to ignore last start at Caulfield and up in distance and dead surface would be ideal. Have to respect.
Viadana: FM-GP1 winner last prep in NZ over this distance on a dead track. 1.5L 5th at Randwick on slow. This prep hasn’t measured up at all. Hard to have.
Bonaria: Ratings not high enough to win this for mine and form from last three runs doesn’t stack up well enough. Best seen on good.
Solicit: Pulled up lame running 2.8L 8th in Group 1 last start. Way back in class and looks massive overs. Loves a wet or dry surface.
Enquare: Ran well enough two back to respect but then last start didn’t have the dash. Could run a good race but place best for mine.
Estonian Princess: Improved run from out the front last start at Randwick but just missed. Up in class again today and will appreciate the track.. but barrier hurts a lot of chances for the horse.
Girl Guide: Continues to find 1 too good after beating 2nd raters first two runs in. Barrier hurts.
Forever Loved: Lame last start and probably just have to forgive for even going around. Back to Flemington but wetter surface today. Decent horse.
You’re So Good: Every chance last start at Moonee Valley but did run it a little fast. Up in weight here looks tough.
Star Fashion: Got lucky last two starts in a row but both runs were solid so hard to talk down to the wins. Needs another gem to go close.
Politeness: Very good run last start at Caulfield and is crying out for a bit of rain. Up in distance today suits and expect to try sit around midfield. Has the ability to beat all of these as long as the track is a dead surface.
Myamira: Every chance last two runs. Simply not good enough to place here.
Neena Rock: Strong enough win last start at Randwick off an ok tempo.. but this is much harder here. Meets Catkins 2kg worse off and best runs shown on Good tracks.
Girl In Flight: Have to respect what she did last prep but not the same last two runs.
Comments: Several chances in this race which means a lower confidence race. Solicit would have gone close in Group 1 last start if not for pulling up lame. Can improve here while Catkins has done nothing wrong all prep and will improve at Flemington.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 4, 7, 11, 14
Strategy: Solicit to win. Smaller bet Catkins
Flemington Race 9
Bel Sprinter: Very good win (draw?) last start at Caulfield. Longer straight today will give him even more chance and he looks to be back to the sprinter of old! Respect the class. Top weight though the issue.
Driefontein: Every chance last start at Caulfield and just not good enough. First run at track down the straight, very hard to suggest form reversal even at the weights.
In Cahoots: Continues to improve! Down 4kg today and only run down the straight was 2.5L 3rd to Chatauqua. Respect at the weights.
Big Money: Unlucky runner of the race last start behind Bel Sprinter and probably could have won. Will improve on that run but could get blocked for runs from this barrier. Need to improve and first time down straight.
Deep Field: Destroyed his rivals all of his starts. Keeps going up in class and the distance keeps decreasing. Another step up and you have to respect. Trial down the straight shows he handles it.. but this tempo will test to see just how good he is.
A Time For Julia: Very disappointing run up in Group 1 class last start but probably ran to ratings? Back in class here and low weight again.. best runs seen at Caulfield though.
Charlie Boy: A tad disappointing last start at Randwick off a hot tempo. Back to 1200m today suits. Issue is didn’t exactly impress down the straight three runs back. Have to respect the WFA-G2 2nd two back.
That’s A Good Idea: Decent horse but has been a fair way off them in this class especially last prep… but finds best on good tracks. Never run down the straight.
Adamantium: Love this bloke and he is back to his best. Always runs super at track and his best runs have clearly been down the straight. He will set a HUGE tempo early, probably kick 2 lengths clear of the field and try and battle on to the line. Has the ability to win and is massive overs.
Nearest to Pin: Not the worst horse in the race. Listed winner last prep at course down the straight. That was on slow though. Doesn’t measure up here to the best of them.
Eclair Big Bang: Never won down the straight. Huge run last start when just blocked and blocked and blocked. Weighted poorly though.
Comments: Can’t ignore Adamantium’s last start run. Half size bets if track is dead 4 and pull bet if dead 5 or worse.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 4, 5, 6, 10
Strategy: Adamantium 3 units to place 1 unit to win.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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