Welcome to The Profits form guide for Stakes Day at Flemington on 8 November 2014. Expect a very warm day on track for Stakes day and 35-40km winds which will make it a nightmare again for those out the front without cover. Quaddie doesn’t look as open as recent days and we have gone much shorter. Let’s finish the carnival with a Bang or two. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
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Melbourne Best Bet
Flemington Race 7 Contributer
Huge win first up in Australia beating Noble Protector and Signoff easily. The turn of foot on this horse is well suited to this race based on past winners. People keep saying, this is a UK horse, so how is it suited to a step back from 2000m to 1600? It actually from all the form i’ve done and videos looks like a 1600-2000m horse and anything more is actually not in the comfort zone. The Cleaner will ensure a strongly run 1600m and that will suit the step back from 2000m as he will be rock hard fit.
Melbourne Next Best Bet
Flemington Race 6 Chautauqua
Massive sectionals all prep and will be taking a sit off them all again today. Yes, this is the hardest straight race of the Spring, but on everything i’ve seen and justified below in the main write-up, Chautauqua should simply be winning a race that will be suited by those taking a sit. Slade Power looks the main danger.
Melbourne Value Bet
Flemington Race 2 Motivado
Ran very well last start at Seymour when ridden off the pace and so far back.. got blocked for runs and never got a chance at them. Up to 2000m today will suit. From the barrier, they can push slightly further forward today.. has the ability and looks a massive price if can improve onwards today.
Flemington MAIN Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 5, 9, 10
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 6, 8, 10, 13
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 13
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 4, 7
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Flemington Race 1
Once again, Race 1 where I can’t exactly do form for you. If having a bet, Iceflow on the E/W would be where I was going as he will be in the right side of the track, taking a sit off them and hitting the line hard.
Comments: Beers over betting for this one.
Confidence 30%
Strategy: Iceflow E/W
Flemington Race 2
Hvasstan: Shows best on wetter surfaces. Won’t get that today with 34’c as well expected… but they may have over-watered to get this so may still be dead at this stage?
Motviado: Blocked for runs in straight at Seymour but wasn’t going to win. Much better run than it looks on paper though.. could be back to form and worth considering.
Clang and Bang: Continues to run well in lesser class without going close. Hard to see measuring up today.
Prizum: Shown nothing the last two runs. Never won from 15 attempts at track and 1 win from 29 at class… last win in 2012 but was running well this prep.
Stratigraphy: Good run 2nd to Happy as Hell last start and tow back run at Bairnsdale had merit also.. but this is a step up inc lass even if it doesn’t say it on paper.
Longeron: Ran well to the line but fairly beaten. Won’t have an easy time out infront today either is the issue. Is classy though.
Rawnaq: Very good runt wo back behind Red Bomber at Moonee Valley and stepped up to 2000m and was huge from the back at Caulfield last start. Weighted well here all things considered and will go back from barrier 20. Only issue will be that he may get too far back.
Shenzhou Steeds: Last prep continued to run well without winning. First up run was good without looking a winner. Hard to tell what he will show but my guess is it won’t be enough to win.
Rainbow Storm: Racing in country.. back to city today and never lost before on a good track. Goes well at distance. I want to dismiss but I can’t.
Bells of Troy: Very poor last prep. First up run was fair.. won last start but this is 10X harder.
Captain Fancypantz: El Capitano! He was back to his best last start in much easier company. Back down in weights, you have to respect him on that previous run I think.
Held Hostage: Every chance last start at Caulfield. Continues to run well this prep.
Cadillac Mountain: Very well backed today. Run at eelong was fine. Two back run was good. Up in distance but will be very far back in the run. Surprised with the price today.
Beliveau: Shown nothing first two runs this prep. Not hanks.
Denoninator: Not winning on form this prep. Avoid.
Mr Jazz: Have to have improved 5 lengths during spell to win here.
Harare: Decent run two back behind Resistant but ran Thursday and was horrid. Needs it wetter.
Comments: Cadillac Mountain and Rawnaq are two of the best runners in this tomorrow.. but they will be 7 lengths off the lead at the 600m. I’ll be looking for a horse sitting handy enough here. I think from the barrier Motivado can sit a little further forward than last today hopefully and the price being bet, even if he goes back, is way over the correct odds.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Motivado E/W.
Flemington Race 3
Excess Knowledge: Import who ran as 2nd fav behind Leading Light in a Group 1 at 3YO. First prep ran a close 2nd and 3rd and it was obvious he had a fair way to go. First up run was solid without impressing and then last start back in class to get the win we saw his best. Still very raw though and alot of improvement to come. Handicapper has found him and that could be what does him in today if anything.
Backstedt: First up run was horrible. Up to 1600m today expect to be rolling further forward. Goes well at track but best run last prep was seen on a slow track. Don’t dismiss but not sure will be in best spot in race.
Alcohol: Well beaten last two runs this prep but more than a few runners. Barrier is poor.
Disciple: 0.4L 2nd to Monton last start at Rosehill and rates well today at weights down in class. Issue is barrier as will be further back than wanted and jockey choice.
Lightenuff: Very tough run first up 0.4L 2nd to Sonntagg at Sale. This is the Sysmo form that Red Inca didn’t back up on Thursday, but you really do have to respect it as the run was very solid.
Our Hand of Faith: Continues to find no luck coming to the finish line this prep. Both last two runs have been very solid and Brad gets the ride today. Barrier 13 a concern to get forward enough but they will push on and hope for mid-field. Runs well at track and suited by winding up. Loves it good. Rates well.
Saint or Sinner: Very poor the last three runs this prep. Much better horse than he has shown but not in form. No thanks.
Pin Your Hopes: Blocked for runs last start at Sale when could have won. Up 2kg today and gains 0.5kg on LightEnuff. Needs to improve still but good barrier.
Vima: Very poor run first up. Looking for further.
London Stripe: Not disgraced last start at Mornington when 3rd to Red Bomber on a slow track. Better suited to Good and gets that today. Arctic Song didn’t exactly frank that form on Thursday though. Has to improve.
Orator: French runner 2nd up. Did win over there in WFA, but best form is on slow… still a good runner on Good tracks.. but may need some time after that first up run!
Chile Express: Ran home well enough 2nd up and was improved on previous run. 15 runs for 1 win at track and 0 wins from 14 in this class. Has to improve significantly.
Felidea: Continues to run well but missing the start continues to ruin his runs. I couldn’t have knowing he will miss it again and be dead last.
Black Jet: Unlucky 5th last start at Moonee Valley in the greys race. Secrety Toy Bizness has come out of that race on thursday and won. Has to improve though respect class.
Phantom Brew: Can’t see a place here on recent form even down in weights.
Comments: I’m happy to take on the fav with 59kg here. Our Hand of Faith appeals on form lines on the E/W. Disciple looks the value of race.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Our Hand of Faith E/W
Flemington Race 4
Armada: Run behind Brazen Beau for 4th was strong, but he did have a cover-up the most of the straight which flattered his run when beating Eloping. Still, have to respect the run and back in class today.
Husson Eagle: Another in the Brazen Beau race who had cover and got out late to try run them down but didn’t produce much. Happy to avoid here.
Lord Aspen: Step up ion class after 3 wins in a row. Last start times were sound and could very well just take a sit today or lead. Needs to improve but rates well.
Nicoscene: Was very brave to the line last start at Moonee Valley behind Law and Galaxy Pegasus. Barrier 18 hurts his chances here today but have to respect on what we have seen so far.
Seenaan: Well beaten by Lord aspen two back and then BM-70 winner in average time last start. Not Prices best in the race.
Limehills: Maiden winner who measured up in 2YO-LR up in QLD. Showed nothing first up behind Kuro.
Staviva: Continues to run well this prep but been found out in harder company last two starts. This looks as hard.
Sebrella: Won two in a row and big step up in class again today. Barrier will make it hard to get the right run required.
Vuelta: Looks a good type. Won on Slow 2nd up last prep over course and distance and then 2.3L 6th to Crafty the next start. Is his best seen on wetter though?
Ducal Castle: Ran some solid races last prep in 2YO grade. First up easy win at Mornington in 3YB-64 grade. Much harder here.
Orient Line: Won two in a row but both very low prize money races. Much much much harder race today.
Lazyaxl: Had his chance the last three runs in similar class. Can’t see the improvement today. Needs wetter.
Greco: Average run last start. Can’t win off what I saw there. Really wants it wetter than good.
Jarklin: Very poor run last start at Mornington. Weighted much better here but hard to see a win on current form lines.
Ulmann: Went under last start as $1.5 fav at Sale.. took a long time to get to front and over-raced during race. Still a good run and have to respect on first up run.
Orlando Jack: Decent maiden win but last start no good from the back. Much harder here also.
Durendal: Maiden winner in very average time. Not here for me.
Comments: Several winning chances. Open race.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Nicoscene E/W
Flemington Race 5
Prince of Penzance: Very good win last start at Moonee Valley thanks to a careless ride from Payne that knocked a few chances out of the race. Runs well at track and clearly at this distance is now back to his best, but is giving some key runners like Noble Protector 3.5kg today and is poorly weighted here for mine.
Big Memory: Ignore last start 2nd when ran too fast into the wind. It was still a brave run 2nd to 4th placed Melb Cup runner Signoff giving Signoff weight. Down 0.5kg today and maps nicely out the front or just off it. Big chance and I’d say McEvoy’s best chance.
Le Roi: Continues to run well without threatening for a victory. 1.5kg on Prince of Penzance today and maps to lob in a perfect spot to have a strong run. Has to improve though.
Epingle: Ran poorly last start at Moonee Valley. Should appreciate this distance and gun jock goes onboard, but runs this prep haven’t been good enough to measure up and beat all these. Never won at track from 6 attempts.
Bring Something: Had it set up for him last start at Bendigo when Massiyn and Order of the Sun took eachother on. Only just got there. Much harder race today.
Zanbagh: Breathing issues last start at Geelong. Has to improve significantly on last two runs to be running past 3 in this.
Let’s Make ADeal: Very disappointing last start at Flemington. Two back run measures up to this grade but has to show that here.. never won at track from 6 attempts and 7 at distances simialr to this.
Noble Protector: Very strong run last start at Caulfield but was found out at the distance by Contributer. Beat home Sign Off very well and like Sign Off will appreciate a longer trip today. Weighted nicely and there isn’t a lot of speed in this race, so should find the lead and set it up for a bit of a crawl. If so, will be very hard to pass.
Commanding Time: Benella Cup winner then well beaten last two starts. Not here.
Ali Vital: Hasn’t won in a long time. Two back run in Bendigo Cup was solid but not anywhere near this class.
Comments: Big Memory and Noble Protector are the two standouts for mine. I can’t put a high confidence rating due to the mapping of the race. A few things may change and the wind on the day if leading is a concern.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Noble Protector to win.
Flemington Race 6
Buffering: Ran well enough last start at Moonee Valley. Only won once down the straight but never runs a bad race. Not sure leading is where i want to be today and happy to take on.
Lankan Rupee: Won 7 of last 9 and two defeats were this prep by 0.1L and 0.1L. You can’t count him out today and he will run a very good race. Issue for me is tactics today. Price suggesting they will try take a sit off Driefontein today.. but I can’t see them pushing THAT hard to get a lead with Driefontein and there is no other leader mapped out that wide. Will have a tough run and be there at finish.
Temple of Boom: Ignore two back run and rate on 3 back and last start. Looks over the odds today and will be hitting the line hard. Loves the straight.
Moment of Change: Ran as well as others in the race. Schofield jumps off to ride Lankan… never won at straight though.
Slade Power: WFA king. He loves a long straight run and loves to wind up and crush his opponents late. WFA legend whose best has been seen on wetter tracks while I think he has been most exposed on Good tracks in the past. Respect his class. Hasn’t come here to lose.
Sidestep: Measured up at 3YO over the 1200m distance. Much harder here at weights. Happy to avoid with 0 places from 2 runs at track previously.
Rebel Dane: Blocked for runs last start at Moonee Valley and ran well all runs this prep. Never placed down straight though has to be an issue. Step up again today.. has ability.
Famous Seamus: Ran very well at Moonee Valley last start. Another who could have won if got clear running.
Terravista: Another who was further back than expected last start at Moonee Valley. Will be suited by Straight today but has to improve.
Chautauqua: Huge sectionals and runs last two starts. Should win basedo n times this prep. Only way he does lose this is if he doesn’t get clear running due to barrier today and the pack deciding to all go to inner rail.
Cluster: No chance at weights today based on two previous runs. Massive step up in class back to 1200m.
Driefontein: Had her chance taking a sit last start behind Deep Field. Was a very good run but you will find she needs to find much more to place here.
Platelet: Didn’t exactly impress me last start at MV. One of the few i’m happy to suggest shouldn’t be winning this.
Comments: You can’t pass up Chautauqua today while you can question the form lines involved with all those in the Manikato. Slade Power looks the obvious threat to me.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 5, 9, 10
Strategy: Chautauqua to win. Saver Slade Power
Flemington Race 7
River Lad: Fairly poor all prep and up to 1600m doesn’t make sense to me today. No thanks.
The Cleaner: Game to the line in the Cox Plate but early sectionals killed his chances when he did too much to get the lead from out wide. Clear leader today and good barrier, have to respect the class… but windy day will make it very hard for him.
Speediness: Showed absolutely nothing last start at Moonee Valley. Tempo was on and everything. Just ignore that run.. rates well at Flemington.
Smokin’ Joey: Had every chance from out the back last start last Saturday and was a fair way off them. Never won at distance previously.
Hooked: Very good win from out the front last start in solid time. Two back close 3rd to He’s Your Man in Group 1 company over 1600m. Maps to sit just off them. Best runs have been off slightly slower timed runs though is the query.
Contributer: Rates to win today. Back to 1600m may seem a concern, but this horse is best around the 1600-2000m distance. Weighted VERY well here today after a 2L defeat of Signoff last start and also held off promising import Noble Protector, the win was sensational and barrier 2 will mean he has every chance from midfield.
Huckelbuck: Highly doubt they will push forward with him today unlike last start. Step up in class again. Win last start was good, but this is a step up that is for sure. Never won at distance an issue but loves track.
Stipulate: Is he the value of the race? Back to 1600m today which is a suitable distance but has never placed at track. I thought the run last start had merit considering he was giving weight to the field and the winner and those in the finish came from the front. Had excuses to finish 12th in the Caulfield Cup and should have finished closer. Respect the ability.
Lucky Hussler: Peak run last start at Caulfield for a 3L win. A few weeks between runs, struggle to see a repeat of that run and defeating all of these runners today stepping up to the 1600m.
Leebaz: Went back and blocked for run last start. WFA-G1 form from last prep and Group winner. Down in the weights, 3 from 3 second up.. but this is the hardest class he has ever faced and i think these are too good for him after that first up run.
Bull Point: Continues to run nice races never being a winning chance. Gets too far back and while he has a turn of foot, it hasn’t been enough recently. Meets Hooked 2kg better at the weights though!
Honorius: Never runs a bad race, was a good run last start at Caulfield but clearly outclassed. Two back run also decent. Weighted nicely but hard to see winning from barrier today for mine.
Desert Jeuney: Weighted very very well today and was a nice run last start at MV behind Hooked. Meets Hooked 2.5kg better off today and Bull Point 1kg better off today and was luckless last start blocked for runs. Expect him to go back from the barrier but will try sit 3/4 back and be every chance off a hot tempo. Big chance at odds.
I’m Imposing: First up run had merit. Massive step up in class and from barrier i’m very happy to take him on here.
Rhythm To Spare: Been well backed today since opening quote. Three runs this prep both been solid but does have to improve significantly again to win.
Escado: Two good runs this prep but similar weight today and won’t get an easy time with it. Not the best in this race for mine.
Comments: A tough race on paper. I have two horses at value I want to bet with my main bet in the race.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 6, 8, 10, 13
Strategy: Contributer to win. Smaller bets on Stipulate & Desert Jeuney.
Flemington Race 8
Solicit: Beaten home by Sweet Idea, Catkins and Bonaria on Saturday.. very good form to bring into this up to 2000m where she has never missed a place. Loves this track and maps to push over from barrier and I wouldn’t be surprised if she got a sit on the rail and something came over to take up the running. If not, she may just lead them. Shows her best off a hot tempo.
Suavito: Maps very well as long as she gets out of the barriers today. Goes very well at track and rates to simply win this even at weights. Win over Precious Gem has been franked during the week.
Star Fashion: Well beaten last start at Flemington. Didn’t have the turn of foot. Happy to take on again today in this class.
Tango’s Daughter: Loomed last two runs but not good enough. Up to 2000m a question for me.
Myamira: Not good enough last three runs and can’t see her placing unless they go forward and try something different.
Zonza: 1.8L 5th and 0.4L 4th in WFA-G1 class over in NZ. Costume didn’t measure up but this is back in class here and weighted well. Issue is front runner and barrier 20 today.. will need a bit of luck and not sure the wind will help her today. Last win was in Aus over 1600m over Bonaria at Caulfield!
Girl In Flight: Just too far back last start. This looks a similar grade today and will struggle to measure up off that last start run. Hard to have now.
Keep De Rose: Showed potential two preps back then nothing last prep. Back to running in this grade first and second up but last start failed out the front. Will be pushing forward from barrier 15.
Scratchy Bottom: Shown nothing all prep so far. Best seen over this distance in the past but hard to see the jump in form so quick.
Reckless Assassin: Not up to this grade.
Spinderbella: GOod win last start at MV beating No Excuses Bec. Hard to see that form measuring up in this class though.
Spirit of Heaven: Doesn’t handle a Good track as well as one with sting out and that was evident last start. Has to improve and needs some rain.
Amanpour: Very strong run last start at Flemington behind Precious Gem (Tuesday). Quick turn around and from barrier 10 will try and lead or just sit off them. Have to respect the class of runner.
Lady Cumquat: Pulled up lame last start so forgive. Improved each run this prep and two back close 2nd to Star Fashion was a good run. Has to improve again and will be a long way back from barrier an issue.
No Excuses Bec: No excuses last start but good win two back. Needs improvement.
Metaphorical: Ran a good race 3 back behind Red Bomber but two previous runs don’t rate well enough to place here.
Comments: Two at the top of the weights are the key hopes here for me. Very keen for a two horse play here.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 13
Strategy: Suavito to win. Smaller bet Solicit.
Flemington Race 9
Henwood: Shot home last start at Moonee Valley and lost a plate during running… very impressive but top weight today back to 1400m… have to find his best.
Spacecraft: Never won first up. Second up record very good and last prep did the same by coming here running a fast tempo and holding on. No low weight today though.
Adamantium: Very good run 2nd two back at Caulfield behind In Cahoots. Don’t dismiss him simply based on last start behind Deep Field… but the winds may just play havic with his chances.
Fast ‘N’ Rocking: Strong win from a very good ride last start at Moonee Valley. Beat Spirits Dance who ran 12th on Thursday behind Vain Queen. Was beaten home two back by Adamantium!
Eximus: Not going well enough the last two starts even though a decent run last start at Caulfield when blocked for runs. Have to peak and produce four back run to have a chance.
Solsay: Well beaten last start at Geelong by Sea Lord of all horses! Outclassed two back also at Cranny. Not for me here.
Eclair Big Bang: Very unlucky last start at Caulfield when blocked for runs. Barrier 12 today so on mapping expect him to not be on the rail. Up to 1400m suitable on what we saw last start… bit chance as long as not caught 3-wide.
Boristar: Adelaide horse who has some deecnt wins on record. Good winf rom front last start over in adelaide and can push forward to sit just off them here. Hard to see the progression though.
Mister Milton: Hasn’t gone close in last 27 runs. No thanks.
FlyingConi: Very strong win at Mildura four back but since up in grade been found out. Have to improve again to win here.
Coronation Shallan: Every chance last start at MV. No thanks for me.
Telepathic: Shown best runs over the 2000m+ on previous form lines. Hard to have here even after a strong 1200m run. I think the price is unders and horse needs further to measure up here.
New York: Not up to this on last 3 preps form.
Written Intent: Couldn’t win a BM-70 at Geelong. Hard to rate as a place chance.
Stars In The Sky: Couldn’t place in Bm-64 last start. No thanks.
Comments: Not the easiest race to finish the day, but i’d want to be close to the speed with cover here.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 4, 7
Strategy: Eclair Big Bang to win.
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